NFL Week 16: Right Again...But What Else Is New?

Distressing times call for more careful picks. While the overall record has stayed on the level, the point spread picks have been slammed for two consecutive weeks. Two straight 5-10 marks in a row. Not good.
Overall: 138-72 (66%)
Vs. Spread: 118-85-7

THURSDAY

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)(-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (3-11)
8:15 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Seriously, enough with these Thursday/Saturday games. If you want to have some games on Thanksgiving, fine. If you want to have the occasional Saturday game after the college season is over, fine. But these weekly games are terrible ideas. First of all, most of them end up being absolute duds because they are scheduled before the season and can’t be flexed. Secondly, they’re being aired on a network that no one can get without paying a good deal of extra money. Look NFL, I already have to pay for the television, the speakers and the cable. Just let me see all the games please.
Pick: Steelers

SATURDAY

Dallas Cowboys (12-2)(-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-8)
8:15 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Cowboys loss to Philly actually hurts the Redskins (more on that later this week) in the long run. However, the Romo injury was an interesting and welcomed development. I continue to believe the NFC is completely wide open. Any team can beat Dallas if their quarterback situation is in flux.
Pick: Cowboys

SUNDAY

Cleveland Browns (9-5)(-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Clearly Las Vegas has not been watching the Bengals closely this season. Otherwise, this spread would not be as low as three.
Pick: Browns

Green Bay Packers (12-2)(-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears (5-9)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Depending who plays quarterback for Chicago, this could be an upset. The Bears already won at Lambeau Field. As bas as Rex Grossman and Brian Griese are, they can occasionally move the offense for a field goal or two. That’s more than Kyle Orton can do. Unfortunately, I think we’ll see Orton this Sunday.
Pick: Packers

Houston Texans (7-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (12-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
This line will depend on how long the Colts have their starters in the game. Three quarters should be enough to win by a touchdown.
Pick: Colts

Kansas City Chiefs (4-10) vs. Detroit Lions (6-8)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
“How to go from division title, to a wildcard spot, to mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in six weeks or less”…By: Jon Kitna and Mike Martz. Special forward by Matt Millen.
Pick: Lions

New York Giants (9-5)(-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (7-7)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I knew the real Giants would show up eventually. Their traditional late-season collapse came a couple of weeks behind schedule, but as winter rolls around, the Giants are falling apart at Tom Coughlin’s feet. Will 9-7 be good enough for a playoff spot? Probably not, since they would own no tiebreakers.
Pick: Bills

Oakland Raiders (4-10) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)(-12)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Like everyone else, I’d like to reserve a seat on the Jacksonville bandwagon. Great to finally see Jacksonville play well in a cold weather environment. Believe it or not, this team is built for cold weather. They have a quarterback who tries to minimize mistakes and does nothing risky. They have two solid running backs. Their defense stops the run. This team, despite being from Florida, can win in the cold. Which is good, because they won’t get a home playoff game. I do hesitate to pick Jacksonville here, because this is a game that they usually blow, or allow it to be much closer than it should.
Pick: Jaguars

Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Trust me, I won’t be rooting for the Eagles this Sunday. I’ll just be rooting against the Saints.
Pick: Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5)(-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-10)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
Most seasons, teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle wouldn’t be taken seriously, despite winning their divisions by early December. Both teams have way too many deficiencies to compete week in and week out with the best. But because the NFC is so up in the air, you have to take any team in the NFC seriously as long as they make the playoffs.
Pick: Buccaneers

Atlanta Falcons (3-11) vs. Arizona Cardinals (6-8)(-10)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
The problem with picking all the games is I actually have to pick all the games. I know I say this at least once a year, but do you really care about this game? I know I don’t.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (1-13) vs. New England Patriots (14-0)(-22)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Reason number 1,350 to dislike New England: they are currently the only team to remove the Sean Taylor decals from their helmets. Classy.
Pick: Patriots

Baltimore Ravens (4-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-5)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
I usually don’t break out the “I told you so dance,” but here it is. This is what I said about the Ravens back in early September:

“…As I stated at the beginning of this post, the age of defense winning championships is coming to an end. To succeed in the NFL, at least during the regular season, you must have a high-powered offense. The 2006 Ravens were the exception that proved the rule that offenses are taking over the game. But they won’t have enough this year. McNair will break down again. You can bet the mortgage on it. Without a passing game, it doesn’t matter who is running the ball. That’s why I think the trade for Willis McGahee was a waste. Why bother when the other team is stacking the box with eight? Be warned though, the Ravens, after their opener in Cincinnati, have an extremely easy first half…After that they have two games against Pittsburgh, another against the Bengals, and games against New England, San Diego, Indianapolis and Seattle. Even a road trip to Miami could be tricky. They may start 5-2, but they’ll probably end the season in the neighborhood of 2-7.”

Who knew that 2-7 was being generous? I dare you to find anyone who thought this team was a non-contender in September like I did. Their schedule was too difficult, their offense too inept, their coach too much in love with himself to play to the strengths of his team. It was fun watching that loss to Miami. You know me, I love being right.
Pick: Seahawks

New York Jets (3-11) vs. Tennessee Titans (8-6)(-9)
4:15 p.m. LP Field
Too little, too late for Tennessee. At least they showed up for the 2007 campaign. Unlike a certain other team that will be taking the field in Nashville.
Pick: Titans

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (6-8) vs. San Diego Chargers (9-5)(-9)
8:00 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Let’s not get too excited about the Chargers 37-point win. Just take a look at who it was against. Now having said that, during this four-game winning streak for San Diego, the Chargers have gotten back to doing what they do best: get the football into the hands of LaDainian Tomlinson and out of the hands of Philip Rivers.
Pick: Chargers