Super Bowl XLIII: Out Of The Desert

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4)(-6.5) vs.
Arizona Cardinals (12-7)
6:20 p.m. Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
SUPER BOWL XLIII

I want to take this time to extend my gratitude to Pittsburgh and Arizona for ridding of us of the last two odious teams left in the tournament. With Philadelphia and Baltimore joining the rest of us on couches, we can now safely analyze an otherwise enjoyable Super Bowl. For the second time in four seasons, I find myself writing about the Steelers on the final Sunday of the year. Unless you are at least 61 years old, you have never written about the Arizona Cardinals in a NFL Championship situation. And chances are you didn’t write about them anyway. And if you did, chances are you aren’t reading this site. Let’s just move on to the game.

When the Cardinals have the ball:

The sexier of the two match-ups; Arizona’s offense against Pittsburgh’s defense. The focus is obviously on the Kurt Warner-Larry Fitzgerald combination. As it should be. However, getting the ball to Fitzgerald won’t be easy. It begins up front with the Cardinals offensive line. Two years ago, the Cards had one of the worst offensive lines in the game. When Ken Whisenhunt came over from the Steelers, he brought offensive line coach and former-Hog Russ Grimm with him. Since then, the Arizona line has been steadily getting better. They’ve gone from one of the league’s most porous lines to one of the toughest. The fact that Warner, a famously fragile and immobile quarterback, is still standing stands as testament to that.

The Steelers will use their speed and the multiple looks of the 3-4 defense to beat a bigger and more physical Cardinals lines. James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior can come from anywhere at anytime. The best way to prevent Warner from getting the ball into the hands of Fitzgerald is to hit him before he can throw. And despite the improvement on the Cardinals line, the Steelers should be able to do that. It also helps that the Steelers possess Troy Polamalu, a physical safety that can also cover. That is something the Cardinals have not faced in their three postseason games (Brian Dawkins doesn’t count since he is not a good cover safety). Polamalu may be one of the only safeties that could possibly reign in Fitzgerald. As long as he has help from a corner.

The Cardinals running game has the potential to be the x-factor in this game. However, I have a feeling that during the two weeks off, Arizona is going to out-think itself and spend too much time passing the ball. Like they did back in November and December. Fitzgerald will make a couple of big plays and probably score once. I also think Anquan Boldin is due for a breakout performance assuming that he’s relatively healthy and not complaining. If the Cardinals use a balanced attack, they will score points. Even against a defense as good as this one. If they don’t, Warner will be a sitting duck by the beginning of the second half.


Larry Fitzgerald has been the best in the playoffs, but the Steelers will probably take him out.

When the Steelers have the ball:

The overall numbers suggest that the Cardinals defense is not good. I think those numbers are a bit skewed. This is a defense that spent way too much time on the field during the regular season. Either they were on the field because their offense scored too quickly, or they were on the field because their offense turned the ball over. Without a running game, Arizona’s defense struggled.

However, since the playoffs began, the Cardinals have used the Edgerrin James-Tim Hightower combination. They haven’t been all that effective running the ball, but they’ve kept their defense off the field a lot more than they did for the last four months. During the playoffs, we’ve seen the Cardinals defense turn into a turnover forcing machine. I know Jake Delhomme had a bad game, but I think the Arizona defense deserves some of the credit for producing five interceptions. I’m not comparing these guys to Pittsburgh’s defense, but they can still get the job done. I look around and see guys like Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson on the defensive side, and that would worry me as an opposing coach. By the way, how awesome is it that the NFL’s two best safeties will be playing in this game? Again, like I’ve told you many times, if you haven’t seen Wilson play, try to get a peak at him on Sunday.

As for the Steelers, everything they do comes down to their offensive line. In the first half of the season, the like was in shambles. Credit to Ben Roethlisberger for having a decent season despite winding up on his butt all the way through October. But the line turned it around (much like the Cardinals line). Willie Parker, who dealt with injuries all season, also recovered in the second half. Now the Steelers fearsome running game is back on track. Pittsburgh should be able to run on the undersized Cardinals defense. The middle of that D is very inviting for a power team like Pittsburgh.


"Fast Willie" is fast again after getting healthy.

We all know about Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. The Steelers really need contributions from Heath Miller to keep the Cardinals guessing. The Arizona secondary should be able to handle Roethlisberger’s primary options. Miller, like the rest of the Steelers offense, came on strong at the end of the year and in the playoffs. He had a crucial touchdown catch in the win against San Diego. Miller could be a huge factor in this game if his quarterback continues to look for him. Other than Holmes, the Steelers don’t have the home run hitters that the Cardinals do. That makes Miller all the more important in clock consuming drives.

The coaches and other intangibles:

It’s hard to imagine a guy as young as Mike Tomlin earning the respect of the veteran players that the Steelers possess. It seemed like last year, despite the on-field success, Tomlin was not well liked by some of his players. That has changed this year in Pittsburgh.

However, I believe that Ken Whisenhunt will have the decisive advantage in this game. As I mentioned before, Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm both defected from Pittsburgh two seasons ago. Now I know that lots of things change in two seasons in the NFL, but the Steelers are basically the same team they were in 2006. Whisenhunt even managed to lead Arizona to a surprise win last year over a far superior Steelers team. If anyone knows how the Steelers operate on both sides of the ball, it’s Whisenhunt. Tomlin does not have that advantage. This, to me, is the most glaring difference between the two teams.

Prediction:

Now, will the coaching difference matter? A little bit yes, but it shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Obviously if one coach knows what the other is planning to do, then his team will be better prepared. However, the two week gap between games gives Tomlin time to catch up. And as it is always mentioned, coaches can’t win games. The players have to execute.

When the Steelers have the ball, I think Pittsburgh has the slight advantage. I think their interior is simply tougher than Arizona’s. If this becomes a high-scoring shootout, you play into the hands of the Cardinals linebackers and secondary. But if Pittsburgh manages to grind this one out, and they’re usually very good about controlling pace and tempo, then the Steelers should prosper.

I said that I don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have the type of game in the Super Bowl that he’s been having in the postseason. I think Pittsburgh will be far too prepared to stop him. I also said that I expect Anquan Boldin to snap out of his pouting spell and step up big. The player who may end up having the biggest game is forgotten receiver Steve Breaston. This is a guy who had 1,006 yards receiving this year. He’s not a complimentary receiver. He is one of the main targets. Warner has forgotten about him in the postseason, but I think that actually helps Arizona. When Pittsburgh goes to look at the tape of the Cardinals playoff games, they aren’t going to see a lot of Breaston. I think that Breaston will have at least one key play in this game, whether it be on offense or returning kicks, that will swing this game in Arizona’s favor.

Despite the rather generous line, and the difference in records, I think these two teams are basically even. Every advantage one team has is canceled out by one from the other squad. Pittsburgh, in my mind, is the very slight favorite to win this game. However, the Cardinals have been playing out of their minds for the past month. Of the two teams, they are playing the best football. Fitzgerald will score once, as will Breaston. The Steelers running game will test the Cardinals late, but this game will come down to Roethlisberger trying to lead a game-winning drive against the Cardinals secondary. For the first time in 61 years…advantage, game and championship: Cardinals.

Cardinals 28, Steelers 23

Maryland Basketball: New Recruits

Boston College Eagles (15-6, 3-3 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (13-6, 2-3 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

So as long as Maryland is going to be bad, they might as well be historically bad. No point in doing anything half-assed. It was the largest loss in Gary’s career at Maryland or any other school. It was only the second time in 20 years the Terps failed to break 50 points (now I know what Wisconsin fans feel like). It was the school’s largest lost to Duke. It was the worst loss in program history since losing to Army by 63 in 1944. How Army even fielded a team in 1944 is beyond me. What, did Eisenhower come back from Normandy to play in that one?

The loss isn’t the real problem here. The fact that it’s taken just two seasons to fall this far behind Duke is the real issue. Just two years ago, Maryland swept these scumbags and placed higher in the tournament than they did. Now they’re suffering 41-point losses to them. How did things fall apart so quickly? I’ll tell you this, it’s nothing that Duke has done. They are still the same team they were in 2007. They’re still the same they were back in 2001 and 2002. For the better part of the last 15 seasons, Maryland has competed on par with Duke. It has taken only two seasons for the bottom to drop out.

This is not a “fire Gary Williams” post. I’ve gone on record many times saying that Williams should be allowed to stay for as long as he wants. He rebuilt the program from scratch, won a NCAA and ACC championship and brought the Maryland basketball program to a national level. All that without one single sniff of a NCAA violation. What more could you ask for? So many of my fellow Terp fans have begun to call for his head following this latest loss. This isn’t smart. If you fire a coach, especially a successful one, you better have a damn good replacement lined up. Or instead of Mike Shanahan, we’ll end up with Josh McDaniels. Let’s see how well that turns out for the Broncos. My guess is not well.

However, this loss should show Gary that he needs to recruit. That doesn’t mean send assistant coaches out to recruit like he used to do with skilled associates like Billy Hahn, Dave Dickerson and Jimmy Patsos. That means that Gary must go out and do a lot more himself. I understand not wanting to get all cosy with AAU coaches. Considering I suffered through the probation era, I’d rather have a mediocre but clean team than one that recruits in the gray area year after year. And I know that Williams is the same way. But there is simply too much talent in the area not to recruit better than this. The two best players on the National Championship team were home grown. Walt Williams, Joe Smith, Keith Booth and Terrance Morris were all local guys. There is no excuse for the University of Maryland to not lock down Maryland players. I’m not talking about Michael Beasley and Carmelo Anthony. Those guys were basically paid to go somewhere else and those are not the kind of players we need to start bringing in to College Park. I’m talking about the Jack McClinton’s and Ty Lawson’s. The Malcolm Delaney’s and Jeff Allen’s. The Terps don’t need a Jin Soo Kim from Connecticut if they could recruit a Chris Wright from Bowie. This is a change that Gary needs to make. If he doesn’t want to do this, or doesn’t have the energy to recruit any more, then he needs to consider stepping down. Again, this isn’t a get rid of Gary Williams post. But he definitely needs to step up the recruiting efforts. He’s gotten spoiled since all his success in the 1990’s and early 2000’s.

That said, we’ll keep the rest of this short. Boston College checks in with Tyrese Rice and not a whole lot else. As usual, I’m in favor of letting Rice get his 30 points while focusing on stopping the rest of the team. If Rice beats you, then fine. But don’t let Joe Trapani, Rakim Sanders and Corey Raji beat you as well. It’s been a bizarre season for the Eagles, who managed to be the #1 team in the country on the road and lose to Harvard in the same week. So that tells you that they have enough to beat anybody, but are still too reliant on Rice to carry them, and can lose to anybody as well.

Call me crazy, but I think Maryland wins this game. There is no way that Maryland can ever play as poorly as they did in Durham this past weekend. Boston College can’t exert the kind of defense that the Dookies did. BC doesn’t have the hustle to dominate the glass. This should be a bounce back for Maryland, setting up a crucial home game on Saturday against Miami. Just a warning, I’m moving this week so there may or may not be a MD-Miami preview on Saturday. Or there will be. Check in for that later.

Maryland 79
Boston College 73’


ACC PICKS:

Miami 74, NC State 66
Wake Forest 84, Duke 75
North Carolina 82, Florida State 70
Clemson 75, Virginia Tech 74

The Predictor Top 25: 1/26/09

Here’s my initial Top 25:

1. Connecticut (18-1): The victory at Notre Dame, which wasn’t really in doubt in the 2nd half, is probably the best road win for any team this season
2. Wake Forest (16-1): The loss against Virginia Tech was predictable. Still, they have wins over UNC, at Clemson and at BYU (which owned the longest home court winning streak in the nation at the time). Wake is for real.
3. Oklahoma (19-1): Any team with Blake Griffin inside is a really good team. Their beatdown of Baylor was the latest in a long line of good wins.
4. North Carolina (17-2): The Heels are still the best team in the country…when they want to be.
5. Duke (18-1): This is why I wait ‘til January to do a poll. Just because the Dookies’ loss isn’t as recent as other teams’, they are #1 this week. However, looking at the season long results, I don’t think they stand a chance against the four teams above them.
6. Louisville (15-3): I think that the Cardinals are also better than Duke, but three losses is one too many to slide them ahead of the Dookies at this point.
7. Pittsburgh (18-1): The Panthers are here because they already lost to Louisville. We know what Jamie Dixon’s team will do in March. Hint: it’s not winning basketball games.
8. Marquette (17-2): For the past couple of years, every time I get high on these guys, they manage to lose a couple of game they aren’t supposed to. They have a very favorable Big East schedule until mid-February. Let’s see if they can earn this ranking.
9. Clemson (17-2): Their two losses are to UNC and Wake. No shame in that. Still, I’d like to see them beat an ACC elite before moving them higher.
10. Xavier (17-2): Don’t know why they decided to travel to Baton Rouge in late January, but they came away with a win. This is the best mid-major in the country.
11. Michigan State (16-3): The losses to Northwestern and Maryland are troubling, but the wins Texas, Arizona State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Kansas and Illinois make up for it.
12. Texas (14-4): The Longhorns have a lot of good wins (UCLA, Villanova, Arizona State) and no losses that really stick out. So despite the 14-4 record, they stay here for now. At least they challenged themselves.
13. Arizona State (16-3): Really hesitant to put Little Herby’s bunch this high. Other than their win at UCLA (in OT), ASU doesn’t have much else on the resume other than a win against BYU on a neutral court. Still, they’ve shown flashes of being the best team in the Pac-10.
14. UCLA (15-4): With losses to ASU and Texas, I couldn’t put the Bruins ahead of either of those teams. Also, the loss to Michigan is becoming a bigger problem each week.
15. Purdue (15-4): Despite the four losses, I still really like this Purdue team. Only the loss at Penn State stands out as curious.
16. Butler (18-1): Best win was against Xavier. And that’s a good win. Other than that, their toughest games were against Ohio State and Northwestern. Then it goes further downhill from there. As usual, I’m just not impressed with Butler.
17. Illinois (17-3): Worst loss is at Michigan. The other two losses to Clemson and Michigan State are understandable. Wins against Missouri, at Vanderbilt and at Purdue help their cause. I think Illinois could legit. Tough game in Minnesota this week.
18. Syracuse (17-4): Despite a challenging non-conference schedule (about time Mr. Boeheim), I was never really convinced about the Orange. An early season loss to Cleveland State can’t be ignored. Neither can losing three of their last four.
19. Memphis (16-3): Even with the off-season defections, this is still a very talented team in a soft conference. The Tigers would be higher if they hadn’t lost to Syracuse.
20. Baylor (15-4): I’ll admit that these guys are probably too high at #20. Still, I love their fun-n-gun style. Plus, none of their losses are bad and they have wins against Arizona State and Washington State.
21. Kansas (15-4): Like Memphis, don’t let the defections fool you. They’ve lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to (with the exception of UMass). They are undefeated in the Big XII. Plus, they have a chance to move up playing at Baylor this week.
22. Minnesota (17-3): The 17 wins are a bit inflated with a rather soft non-conference schedule. Still, the win against Louisville sits well with me. The Fightin’ Tubbies get a chance to prove themselves this week with games against Illinois and Michigan State.
23. Missouri (17-3): Like rival Illinois, the jury is still out on these guys. However, the Tigers appear to finally be building up after the rough tenure of Quinn Snyder and his giant vat of hair gel.
24. Florida State (16-4): The more I see of FSU, the more I like. Will ranking Leonard Hamilton this high come back and haunt me? We’ll see what happens against UNC on Wednesday.
25. Washington (15-4): If Lorenzo Romar wasn’t the coach, I probably wouldn’t have the Huskies ranked. Still, UW is 6-1 in the Pac-10 and they own wins against UCLA, Stanford and Oklahoma State with a week long trip to the desert scheduled. As long as they avoid traveling to Portland (6-pt loss to Portland and 1-pt win over Portland State) they’ll be fine.

Next Up: Kentucky, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, Villanova, Florida

Maryland Basketball: Meet The New Dookies, Same As The Old Dookies

Maryland Terrapins (13-5, 2-2) vs.
#2/2 Duke Blue Devils (17-1, 4-0)
Juan Dixon Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC

Please stop telling me that the Maryland Terrapins could be 4-0 in the ACC. First of all, they aren’t. Saying that they could be won’t magically bump up their RPI or change their record in the eyes of the tournament committee. Secondly, they could also easily be 0-4. Or are you conveniently forgetting that the Terps needed 28 Georgia Tech turnovers and narrowly avoided blowing another 17-point lead against Virginia? Enough. They are 2-2, and probably lucky to be .500 right now.

I’m not ignoring the fact that in all four conference games, Maryland has had long stretches of solid play. They have had entire halves without major issues. When their pressure defense works, and the Terps get out in transition, then they actually look like a competitive, ACC-caliber team. That’s not the problem. We know that Maryland can do a lot of things well. They aren’t helpless like the shorn husk of a program that Virginia trotted into College Park on Tuesday.

The offensive problems for Maryland are simple. They simply can’t operate in half court sets. Why? The lack of any threat taller than 6’8” is the main reason. The only “tall” player doing anything is Landon Milbourne, and he’s not your typical back-to-the-basket post player. The flex offense simply can’t work without a post-player who can flash out to the top of the key, set some screens, then flash back to the vacated spot on the floor and wait for a pass for an easy layup. Without that option, the flex offense is much easier to guard. Without that option, the flex offense struggles to succeed. What usually ends up happening is a failed attempt at a set play for the first 15 to 20 seconds of the shot clock, followed by panic and several players standings around watching the ball-handler until a forced shot is attempted. That comes complete with no big man to grab the rebound.

While the offensive problems are unlikely to change this season, it’s the defensive problems that are both the most confusing and easiest to fix. Maryland’s press has been more effective this season than in recent ones. There are times that this team mirrors the run-n-gun teams of the mid and late 90’s (those were always the more aesthetically pleasing Maryland teams to watch). Even undersized and stuck in half court sets, this defense can hold its own. Yes, the rebounding can be an issue from time to time, but it’s to be expected with a small team. What I can’t figure out is why Maryland forgets to cover the perimeter for five to ten minute periods. Everything can be going so well, then one made three pointer seems to unravel the entire defense. There’s no way to explain why this is happening. I would assume it’s because Gary Williams tells his big men to stop helping outside and focus on rebounding late in games. Whatever the case may be, it needs to change. The Terps are getting out-rebounded anyway, they might as well make it tougher for teams to make shots to begin with.

It would be a good time to start guarding the perimeter, because it’s time for the annual trip to Nerdville and the usual bombardment of threes from the Great White Hopes. The Dookies are up to their usual tricks of being overrated thanks to an easily manageable out-of-conference schedule and the rest of the “top 10” teams losing to tougher competition. When are analysts and voters going to understand that Duke does this every season? Go back and look at any of my other Maryland-Duke previews since I don’t need to say everything over and over again. The Geeks can shoot well until about mid-February. Then Ratface loses confidence in his bench, his starters end up playing 35 minutes a night, and all the shooters lose their legs as they get fatigued. In turn, with tired legs and a complete lack of an inside game (sound familiar?), the Dookies shooting percentage and win percentage dips dramatically in February and March. This year will be no different. I give Duke another couple of weeks before the losses start accumulating and the three-point shooting starts going south.

Looking at the stat sheet, and relying on my knowledge of the few Duke games I’ve seen this season, you already know that guys like Lance Thomas, Elliot Williams and 10th year senior David McClure are going to see their minutes decrease dramatically. That’s going to leave a rotation of Sweet Elbows Henderson, Screamin’ Jon Scheyer, non-threatening requisite black guy Nolan Smith, Tall White Stiff Who Can Shoot Threes, the Human Turnover Machine and Galactic Alien Space Captain Zoubek. That’s six men. The other three guys, along with Eurostiff Marty Pocius (yes, he’s still there!) will see occasional playing time followed by long periods on the bench. As a result, Scheyer, Henderson and Singler will all see their shooting percentages fall. As all Duke shooters have seen since Carlos Boozer took his tattoos to the NBA and Jason Williams played stuntman on his motorcycle.

Now the experts at ESPN will try to convince you that this Duke team is not like the last five or six editions. They have inside game! They play better defense! They are deeper than before! No they don’t and no they’re not. While Duke has always played good defense (it’s amazing what you can get away with when you play 8 vs. 5), their defense this year is no better than in years past. In fact, it looks as if Ratface and company have almost completely abandoned the tradition half court hedge play they used to run and drive ACC teams crazy with. The Dookies have the potential to be deep, but as discussed above, it doesn’t matter how deep a team is if the head coach doesn’t play more than six or seven guys. As for the inside game? That’s still debatable.

It appears, and again the returns are still very early, that Singler may actually be developing some sort of interior presence. He’s long been a 3 playing the 4 spot. And with the only other option inside being Captain Zoubek, Singler is forced to go grab a rebound or two. But he seems more adapt at driving this season. If he drives more, then he is the only player on this team that would really keep me up at night as an opposing coach. The rest of these players are one-dimensional. Zoubek will be in foul trouble early on. Henderson is scrappy (ask Tyler Hansbrough), can hit his shot if he gets open, but does little in terms of driving and rebounding. Screamin’ Jon is a spot up shooter…a poor man’s Backne if you will (by the way, how many times is ReDick going to request a trade from Orlando…shut up and collect your undeserved pay check you prick). Smith is an improvement at point guard over the Turnover Machine. I will give Ratface credit for that, even though I thought he should have benched Paulus two seasons ago. Paulus seems to be much more effective coming off the bench, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Like Maryland, Duke has yet to play North Carolina, Wake Forest or Clemson. I think all three of those teams are better than the Nerds. So that undefeated ACC record isn’t all that impressive considering the wins against Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and NC State. And the Dookies had real problems taking care of Georgia Tech and NC State. Sure, Maryland is struggling against everybody. But if Duke is as good as their ranking, then they should have no problems against schools like that. So I question the ranking and I question the inflated record. Unfortunately, because Wake Forest decided to take a nap against the Hokies, if Maryland can’t come through at Juan Dixon Indoor Stadium, it looks as if the Cheer Sheets will be moved up to #1. So I think it's safe to say that the rest of the country will be rooting for the Terps in this one.

Now, can Maryland beat Duke? Absolutely. Against the ACC’s Big 4, Maryland matches up much better against Duke than any of the other three teams. Maryland’s weakness is also Duke’s weakness. Hard for the Fightin’ Virgins to go after the glass when they possess the shortest 7-footer in America and little else inside. Milbourne is the one guy who can hang with Singler defensively. And in the last 5 to 6 seasons, Maryland’s backcourt has always outplayed Duke’s, no matter what kind of talent was back there. On paper, it doesn’t appear to be too close. However, Gary Williams loves playing in Durham with nothing to lose. Greivis Vasquez has been very quiet over the last four games and is due for 25-point, 6-assist, 5-turnover effort. Adrian Bowie has come out of nowhere to be one of the best slashers in the conference (something Duke will have problems stopping). Eric Hayes has finally found his stroke over the past few weeks and is a legit threat from the outside. If Maryland can keep Duke from hitting too many threes, they can win this game. The Dookies, like some of the other teams Maryland has played recently, can get loose with the ball and can turn it over rather easily. Maryland has to push the tempo and create turnovers from the tip to the final whistle. I don’t think Maryland will win, but I refuse to pick Duke. So there will be no pick here. Sorry.


ACC PICKS:

Boston College 78, NC State 70
Florida State 82, Virginia 69
Miami 67, Virginia Tech 62
Clemson 87, Georgia Tech 73

Maryland Basketball: Sunshine State Of Mind

Maryland Terrapins (12-4, 1-1 ACC) at
Florida State Seminoles (14-3, 1-1 ACC)
Donald L. Tucker Center - Tallahassee, FL

I have to keep this entry short. Not because I don’t have the time. But if I have to talk about Maryland a whole lot I may through my laptop through my window. So it’s best if we keep it short.

This question was posed to me yesterday: was I more shocked that Maryland blew a 17-point second half lead or was I more surprised that Maryland played well enough to possess a 17-point second half lead? Honestly, I was more surprised at the latter. I expected Maryland to lose. I expected them to get crushed. Then, when they had the lead, and Miami hit two threes in a minute to cut the lead to 11, I texted several friends and told them Maryland was going to lose this game. The fact they blew the lead doesn’t surprise me at all. We see this at least 2 to 3 times a season. The loss to Clemson last year still resonates. It was only a week ago when they blew a 14-point lead to Morgan State. So to see Maryland shit away a large second half lead isn’t a shock anymore. It’s almost expected.

What was really surprising was the fact that they actually led 52-35 early in the second half. They really didn’t do anything exceptionally well as a team to earn that lead. I guess they shot better than usual, but they still weren’t rebounding and they certainly weren’t passing the ball well. Eric Hayes and Adrian Bowie played out of their minds for the first 25 minutes or so. Greivis Vasquez did very little. Dave Neal continues his long plunge back to Earth. Landon Milbourne, who continues to improve week in and week out, had an average game. And can someone tell me why Braxton Dupree still has a scholarship? I’m tired of seeing rebounds hit him square in the chest, only to watch the ball bounce to the other team or out of bounds.

I really don’t need to spend a whole lot of time on that loss to Miami. Any Maryland fan worth his or her wait could see the loss coming with about 10 minutes to go in the game. Maryland stopped guarding the perimeter and they stopped pressing the Hurricanes. You leave Jack McClinton (another Baltimore player that isn’t wearing Maryland red) open and he’s going to make shots. Turns out he’s a pretty good player (sarcasm alert). They also stopped running up and down the court. Once they settled in for a half court game, they had no chance. Even with a 17-point cushion.

I also don’t need to talk about the game with Florida State a whole lot either. Had the Terps gone to Miami and lost in the fashion that I expected them to, then maybe they’d go into Tallahassee and play well. However, consider the way they lost, I think they’ll still be in shock. The noon start probably insures that they’ll sleepwalk through at least the first half. Toney Douglas is almost guaranteed to go for 20 to 25. FSU also has some nice interior players. Freshman Chris Singleton looked real good in a tough win at NC State. Uche Echefu, Soloman Alabi and Ryan Reid all give the Seminoles good minutes inside. Derwin Kitchen is a similar player to Von Wafer when Wafer played with Al Thornton. If you focued too much on Thornton, then Wafer could beat you. Otherwise, he’d be a solid role player. If the Terps focus too much on Douglas, Kitchen is good for a couple of big threes late in the game. The Noles even have Deividas Dulkys…their very own Lithuanian! Guarantee he’ll make a key three somewhere in this game. I still don’t expect too much from the Terps, and unless they come out like gang-busters, I don’t see them winning this game.

Florida State 68
Maryland 63

ACC PICKS:

(so far a perfect 10 for 10)

NC State 76, Georgia Tech 68
Clemson 87, Wake Forest 84
Virginia Tech 70, Boston College 66
North Carolina 83, Miami 65

NFL Playoffs: For The Birds

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6-1)(-3) at
Arizona Cardinals (11-7)
3:00 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
NFC Championship Game

So raise your hand if this was your NFC Championship game at the beginning of the season. How about three weeks ago? How about last week? Not a lot of hands raised. The Eagles were left for dead (especially by yours truly) entering December, then again after they only managed three points in a loss in Washington. The Cardinals, while easily clinching the horrible NFC West, were never “left for dead”. But of the six NFC teams in the playoffs, they were considered the least likely to move on. When most people are picking a team with a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback to beat a team on the road in the playoffs, that usually doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. But the Cardinals are here anyway.

Both teams have seemingly changed the way they play football overnight. Both of these offenses, for the majority of the season, were pass-happy teams that ignored the run and too often put their defenses in bad positions. In December, the Eagles finally started giving the ball to Brian Westbrook, and their season “miraculously” turned around. The Cardinals were terrible running the ball in December. They only averaged 15 carries a game down the stretch. However, in the postseason, Ken Whisenhunt’s team has run it 72 times…or 36 carries per game. Wow. I’m sure Whisenhunt didn’t bench Edgerrin James back in November because he was saving him for the playoffs. Whether that was Whisenhunt’s intent or not, James is fresh and running like his old Indianapolis self again. Now both teams are running the ball, controlling the clock and helping their solid defenses with better field possession. You know, sort of like good NFL teams.

It’s never easy for anyone to go into the Meadowlands after Halloween and steal a game. The Eagles win in New Jersey was impressive. But it was nowhere near as impressive as the Cardinals complete domination in Carolina last week. Of the four road teams last week, I had the least faith in the Cardinals winning or even coming close to covering the spread. Not only were they not as good as the Panthers, they never won games on the East Coast. Maybe the 8:00 start helped, but their effort was impressive regardless. After the first quarter, there was no doubt that the Cardinals were going to win that game. Just a very impressive display of football. So impressive, I’m going to pick them to appear in their first ever Super Bowl.

Cardinals 27, Eagles 20


Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at
Pittsburgh Steelers (13-4)(-6)
6:30 p.m. Heinz Field
AFC Championship Game

All week we’ve been hearing about how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season. Well, how true is that? Of the 18 teams that had the opportunity to do win a third game against one team, 11 of them succeeded. Which means it’s actually harder not to lose to a team for a third time than it is to beat a team for the third time. This is good news for Pittsburgh.

Last weekend’s games showed us two things. One, when Pittsburgh wants to be dominant, they can be dominant. Like the Cardinals performance against Carolina, there was no doubt as to which team would win the Steelers-Chargers game after the end of the first quarter. The Steelers’ third quarter performance was nothing short of remarkable. Their offense had two long touchdown drives and their defense only allowed the Chargers to have one offensive play. For the whole quarter. Pittsburgh ran 22 plays, while the Chargers ran one…which was an interception. I haven’t seen anything like that before.

The second thing that last weekend proved is how fluky the Ravens really are. The Ravens were bailed out by a Tennessee team that pulled their best Redskins impression. They controlled the game, moved the ball and kept Baltimore’s offense from doing anything. But turnovers and penalties kept their offense from scoring and their defense collapsed in the final two minutes of the game. Vintage Redskins loss right there. Lose a game at the last second that you should have won by 10-14 points.

I see no reason to bet against Pittsburgh here. The Steelers utterly confused Joe Flacco in their first two wins. Pittsburgh, with the exception of Bill Cowher’s last season, has owned the Ravens. Absolutely owned them. It’s not like Pittsburgh’s been the better team this season. They have been the better team for the past five or six seasons. They don’t seem to be bothered by Baltimore’s blitzes. For the most part, they don’t seem to have trouble moving the ball. And they certainly have had no problems stopping that “vaunted” Ravens offense. Plus, at the end of games, the Steelers just seem to get all the breaks. I think all those trends continue on Sunday.

Steelers 19, Ravens 10

Maryland Basketball: Hittin' The Road Stuggling

Maryland Terrapins (12-3, 1-0 ACC) vs.
Miami Hurricanes (12-3, 1-1 ACC)
BankUnited Center – Coral Gables, FL

Here are some of the raw numbers from Maryland’s last game. The Terps shot 31.5% from the field, which was actually better than the 25% they shot in the first half. They were 5-26 (19.2%) from behind the line. If you take away Eric Hayes’ 4-for-6 night, then the rest of the teams was 1-for-20. Maryland allowed Georgia Tech to make one more basket as a team than they did…despite the fact that Maryland took 17 more shots. The Terps got out-rebounded by 12. They held the lead in the game for less than four minutes. And somehow, miraculously, the Terps managed to win the game.

How did they do that? Well, it helps when the opposition turns the ball over 28 times. Yes, 28 times. I’m sure it’s happened before, but I can’t remember watching an ACC game where one team had that many turnovers. And it’s not as if Maryland forced most of them. The Terps were only responsible for 12 of the 28. So to say Georgia Tech handed Maryland a win would be a major understatement. It was a win, but not a very impressive one. This was a home game against a team that Maryland should have beaten rather easily. They needed 28 turnovers to win it and even then the game was in doubt into the final minute of play.

There are 343 division one basketball schools. 342 of them have played a true road game on an opponents court. The one holdover? You guessed it…Maryland. It's not a huge deal since the Terps have played four neutral site games (and the crowd for the Michigan State game in Orlando was wearing an awful lot of green). But the Terps finally hit the road for the first of two straight in the Sunshine State, and travel somewhere that they haven’t won since the 1970’s. Ever since Miami joined the ACC, they have been a thorn in the Terrapins’ side. They beat Maryland in College Park. They beat Maryland at the ACC Tournament. And they certainly do a pretty good job of beating Maryland in Coral Gables.

The Hurricanes continue to be led by Jack McClinton. He’s having another good season with 17 points a game while shooting at a 47% clip. Around McClinton are some nice role players. Jamie Dews and Lance Hurdle are other options outside, even though both of their numbers are slightly down. Missing from Miami will be young point guard Eddie Rios, who was suspended early this week for the second time this season. It is unlikely he’ll return to the Canes in the near future.

Other than McClinton, what really scares you about Miami is their front court. There aren’t a lot of great players. But they have a lot of depth and a lot of quality ACC front court guys. On top of that, most of their big men are experienced seniors or juniors. Jimmy Graham, who seemingly has been at The U for seven years, is the most recognizable name, despite his numbers and minutes also being down. Even though he still sees a good chunk of playing time, the Hurricanes now rely on Dwayne Collins and Brian Asbury (two names that should be familiar to most fans), as well as relative newcomers Cyrus McGowan and DeQuan Jones. All five of these players average well over 10 minutes a game. Other than Collins, the other four are no threats to make jump shots or create their own points. They rely on the guards to get them the ball. What this five-headed monster does is rebound, rebound and rebound some more. Collins, Asbury, Graham and McGowan all average five or more rebounds a game. They are all very physical, and they tend to wear down thin front courts. Since Maryland has no front court what so ever, this could be a major problem.

Frank Haith’s team hasn’t lost to anyone they shouldn’t have, but they have very little in the impressive win category. So far the Canes have lost in the Virgin Islands to UConn, and at home to Ohio State and Clemson. The Clemson loss was especially troubling, since the Tigers blew Miami out from the opening tip. Miami scored a win at Kentucky, which is a win that’s looking better and better each week. They’ve beaten San Diego (a good mid-major). They were unimpressive in a close win at Boston College. That’s about it. The rest of the list reads like Stetson, North Florida and whatever small to sort of small schools they could find scattered around the South.

What Miami does is slow the game down and, in the past at least, limited their turnovers. Their turnover numbers are up slightly, but not at a 28-turnover game rate. By doing those two things, they’ve kept faster and more athletic teams from getting out in transition. If Miami can make every game a half-court game, they have a chance to win with shooters like McClinton and Dews and solid rebounders inside. Since Maryland hasn’t been able to get Miami in an up and down pace in the past, there is no reason to think they’ll be able to do that this season. The Hurricanes will make it ugly, wear out Maryland in the first half, and put the Terps away in the second. It shouldn’t be close midway into the second frame.

Miami 75
Maryland 61

ACC PICKS:

(and yes, I was a perfect 6-for-6 last week)

Duke 81, Georgia Tech 62
Wake Forest 79, Boston College 73
North Carolina 92, Virginia 67

Maryland Basketball: Almost, But Not Quite

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-5, 0-1 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (11-3, 0-0 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

You know that opening scene in Super Troopers? The one where the two cops mess with the three kids who are tripping out. During the roadside interrogation, Ramathorn asks the three kids where they’re going:

Stoner #1: “Canada…we’re going to Canada for some French Fries and gravy.”

Ramathorn: “Canada, huh? Almost made it.”

I think that quote accurately describes Maryland’s season so far. They did so well avoiding any major screwups. They got marquee wins over the two Michigan schools. Their two losses, while ugly on the score sheet, were nothing to be ashamed of since they were against Gonzaga and Georgetown. They put potential troublesome teams like George Washington and Charlotte away. Other than the early scare against Vermont, they had no problems with patsies like Elon or Delaware State. They even avoided a repeat loss to American. It was all setting up perfectly going into the conference schedule. There were no major blemishes on the record, and there were two strong non-conference wins to hang their hats on. All they had to do was take care of business against Morgan State.

ACC play, huh? Almost made it.

The Morgan State disaster was worse than the combined affect from the American/Ohio losses last season. American ended up being a tournament team that almost knocked off Tennessee in the first round. Ohio competed fairly well in the rough and tumble MAC. At the end of the season, even though both of those losses significantly hurt Maryland’s chance at a tournament bid, neither of those losses were “embarrassing”. Bad losses, sure. But nothing that would scar Maryland fans for years to come.

But this? Morgan State? A team that is 111th in the RPI (and the reason they are that high is because they beat a high RPI team like Maryland). A team that is 5-8. A team that may win its conference…but it’s a conference that’s only 28th out of 31 conferences in terms of RPI toughness. There are no excuses for this. None. There is no way to sugarcoat this kind of performance and this kind of result.

What’s even worse is how close Maryland got to ACC play without making any major mistakes. Again, other than Vermont, they dominated every game against bad teams. There wasn’t even a hint of trouble. All we heard from the team was how determined the players and coaches were to “not let another American happen”. And they seemed to be focused and determined for their cupcake games. They had a rough time for one half against Charlotte, but Charlotte is an Atlantic-10 school. That’s one of the top mid-major conferences. So that wasn’t the worst thing in the world. There was no reason to expect that they’d have a let down against Morgan State. And the Terps even led by 14 in the 2nd half? How did they manage to lose? How? This team was 10 minutes away from going into conference play with an eight-game winning streak, a 12-2 record and a winnable opening game in conference against struggling Georgia Tech. All they had to do was hold of Morgan State. Not Duke, not UNC, not even Virginia. Morgan State.

Anyway, during the first 15 games, we learned absolutely nothing about Maryland that we didn’t already know. We knew coming in that this was going to be an inexperienced team that relied on jump-shooting and couldn’t be counted on to rebound or attack the basket with any consistency or success. Which means that they will be susceptible to upsets like the one that happened Wednesday night. Maryland is on par with Florida State and Virginia Tech and is still better than NC State, Virginia, Boston College (probably) and the team they are facing today in Georgia Tech. However, they could lose once or twice to any of the teams on this list. If the jump shots don’t fall, like they didn’t earlier this week, they will lose. Period. End of story.

So far I have been impressed the efforts of Landon Milbourne, who is finally using his height and speed to attack the rim. He’s also realized that being a left-hander is an advantage, since even the best defenders aren’t used to defending lefties. Dino Gregory has show the ability to hustle underneath and at least try for rebounds in the limited minutes he gets. And even Dave Neal has shown a little something, but I fear that he’s hit one to many jump shots for his own good. Because he can score in double-figures against the sisters of the poor, he probably figures he can do the same against ACC competition. Hopefully he does more rebounding and less shooting from here on out. On the other hand, Braxton Dupree has been a disappointment. He seems to be Travis Garrison ver. 2.0. He’s got the big man body, but refuses to play the big man game. Dupree seems content to settle for close jumpers instead of going strong to the rim. If he learns to play with his back to the basket, then Maryland actually has a chance to develop some sort of inside game. I just wouldn’t count on that happening this season.

I was going to spend more time on Georgia Tech, but I’ve run out of free time (real job and all). We’ll see these guys later in the season. Paul Hewitt’s club was supposed to be guard oriented coming into the year, but they’ve only shot an abysmal 28.7% from behind the line. They’ve actually found a decent inside game with forwards Gani Lawal (17 and 10 per) and Alade Aminu (13.5 and 9 per). If only the veteran guards of Lewis Clinch and Zach Peacock, along with supposed super-freshman Iman Shumpert (again…the weirder the name, the more likely it is that Hewitt will offer you a scholarship), then Tech may actually have a chance this year. I don’t see the Yellow Jackets ever getting on the same page. This is going to be a 5-6 win ACC team most likely. Georgia Tech did not fair well in the non-conference schedule, with only a home win against Vanderbilt to brag about. They’ve lost games to big schools like Penn State (eh), Southern Cal (eh again) and Alabama (not good…Mark Gottfried better start updating he resume). They’ve also lost to Illinois-Chicago, a loss that is currently worse RPI-wise than Maryland’s debacle against Morgan State. The Jackets also managed to lose at home to Virginia, who I still think will finish last in the ACC. So all in all, this is not a very good team right now.

Going completely against character, I fully expect Maryland to bounce back and win this one. I can’t imagine what practice has been like the last couple of days. Let’s just assume that Gary Williams popped a few blood vessels. Hopefully the loss to Morgan State is simply a blip on the radar screen, and not a sign of things to come.

Maryland 78
Georgia Tech 72

ACC PICKS:

Clemson 83, NC State 66
Duke 74, Florida State 71
Virginia Tech 68, Virginia 57
Miami 80, Boston College 73
Wake Forest 88, North Carolina 80

NFL Playoffs: Eagles Or Giants...We're All Winners Since One Has To Lose

I was 2-2 last week overall and against the spread. We continue with the divisional round.

SATURDAY

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) vs.
Tennessee Titans (13-3)(-3)
4:30 p.m. LP Field
I’m not sure why Las Vegas is in love with the Ravens. I don’t get it. They are playing a team they already lost to at home, and it’s a team that’s had two weeks to sit and prepare for an offense that isn’t that complicated. And the Titans are only favored by three. Huh? Anyone else get that?

Look the Ravens have surpassed anyone’s expectations this season. They have completely overhauled their offensive line in less than two years. Joe Flacco has progressed, maybe not as much as Matt Ryan, but it appears that he was worth trading up for in the draft. However, he still struggles to lead drives when he doesn’t get the ball in the opponents’ territory. We’ll see a lot of Chris Johnson, a lot of Lendell White and a lot of ball protection for the Titans offense to assure that Flacco and company don’t get a short field. Plus, the Titans defense already confused the hell out of him once, I don’t see any reason to think that they won’t do it again.

Titans 20, Ravens 10


Arizona Cardinals (10-7) vs.
Carolina Panthers (12-4)(-10)
8:15 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Even though this game could shape up to be an entertaining shootout, you can sum this one up in one line: The Cardinals are playing on the East Coast. They can’t win on the East Coast. They can’t play competitively on the East Coast. They usually don’t show up on the East Coast. Carolina should have no problems.

Panthers 38, Cardinals 23


SUNDAY

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-1) vs.
New York Giants (12-4)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
So…do Eagles fans still want to kick Donovan McNabb out of Philly? You sure about that? I can think of a few teams that could use him. The Lions, the Bills, the Bears all come to mind. Or about the team the Eagles just beat? The Vikings would have won that game with a quarterback that wasn’t physically handicapped. Do you really want to get rid of a capable QB with at least a couple of good seasons left in him?

As for this game, it will be as enjoyable for me to watch as last year’s Giants-Cowboys game. In other words, not enjoyable at all. The Eagles are playing better football the past month, but the Giants are the better team. I just can’t stress how important the bye week is in these divisional matchups. I can’t see the Giants losing twice to the same team at home. Especially when they’ve had an extra week to prepare. But the good news is that one of these teams has to lose.

Giants 27, Eagles 19


San Diego Chargers (9-8) vs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)(-6)
4:30 p.m. Heinz Field
The words Ben Roethlisberger and concussion don’t give me a whole lot of faith in the Steelers. I think if any home team is likely to lose this week, it will be Pittsburgh. You put a woozy quarterback behind a joke of an offensive line and bad things tend to happen.

However, if you thought the Ravens defense was opportunistic last week and all season, the Steelers defense has quietly been even better. There’s a good reason why James Harrison is defensive player of the year and not Ed Reed. He’s the best defensive player on the best defensive unit. Makes sense to me. And Philip Rivers tends to gamble a little too much. Factor cold weather in with a “gun-slinging” quarterback playing a nasty defense, and I can’t see San Diego doing all that much defensively. Pittsburgh’s offense should be good enough for 14 points, and their defense should hand them at least another 10. Should be good enough for a close win.

Steelers 24, Chargers 20

NFL Playoffs: Every Home Dog Has Its Day

I finished the season 148-92-1 overall, and a weak 119-115-7 against the spread. I've had two awful weeks in a row. But the dream of an undefeated playoffs is still alive. It won't be easy. For the first time in NFL and Las Vegas history, all four road teams are favorites on wild card weekend. If history tells us anything, two home teams will win. Hopefully I picked the right two. As always, don't use the following picks for any gambling purposes.

SATURDAY

Atlanta Falcons (11-5)(-2.5) at
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Are we sure this is a playoff game? At the beginning of the season, he Falcons were on everyone’s short list for team that would end up with the 1st pick in the 2009 draft. And the Cardinals were still the Cardinals. They were a team that after 20 years mired in ineptitude, had become mired in mediocrity for the past five. So to say no one saw this game coming is an understatement.

We know how the Cardinals managed to get here. They were simply the best team in the NFL’s worst division. In fact, the 2008 NFC West is so bad, it was the worst division in the NFL since the 2002 realignment. How bad was it? Well the San Francisco 49ers, a team that fired its coach midway through the season, a team that brought in Mike Singletary (despite no experience) to replace him, a team that then had to suffer through a now infamous coaching tirade and a bizarre pants-dropping incident, a team with no experienced NFL quarterback, actually finished 2nd in the division. Yes, there were actually two teams in the NFC West worse than the 49ers. San Francisco was the main challenge to Arizona for the division title. That’s how bad the NFC West was.

On the other hand, the Falcons had to go through the NFC South to get a wild-card bid. Yes the Falcons benefited from playing the NFC North and AFC West and got a couple of cheap wins (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit). But they still had to play six games against their own division. A division tough enough, that any one of its four teams could have easily won the NFC West.

So you would think that makes this pick easy. Not so much. I’ve been picking against Atlanta all season. Why? Well, several reasons. This team is simply not ready to be an elite team. There is so much youth on the roster as so many key positions that it’s hard to believe this team can compete on the next level. The defense is inconsistent and unreliable. Just last week, in a game that was important to Atlanta, their defense gave up 27 points to the 2-14 St. Louis Rams. You factor in the rookie head coach and rookie quarterback, even though both have had terrific seasons, and it just doesn’t add up. I don’t want to say that the Falcons got to 11-5 using smoke and mirrors, but that’s the best explanation I can come up with. They aren’t “11-5 good”. I’m going to take the veteran quarterback and the home team in this game.

Cardinals 27, Falcons 24


Indianapolis Colts (12-4)(-1) at
San Diego Chargers (8-8)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Before we get to San Diego, I believe I was the only one who called Mike Shanahan getting fired after blowing a three game lead with three games left to play. Again, this guy hasn’t done anything since John Elway retired. How long can you rest on your laurels? It’s been ten years. Anyway, moving on.

The Chargers are now the trendy pick since they have “started to peak at the right time”. Everyone is looking for this year’s version of the New York Giants, and everyone thinks they’ve found it in San Diego. Except last year’s Giants team had quality wins and didn’t have Norv Turner as a head coach. The Chargers were 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and they got on their four game win streak by beating the hapless Raiders, the even more hapless Chiefs, the Buccaneers (who were in the process of complete their choke job) and the Broncos. Not exactly murderer’s row.

Meanwhile, the Chargers comeback has taken a lot of attention away from the Colts, who have won nine in a row. Those nine wins include victories over New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and even – you guessed it – these same San Diego Chargers in San Diego. The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and I don’t see them losing again this season. The Chargers are what they are, an 8-8 football team that needed a historic collapse by another 8-8 football team to get into the playoffs. Why the Colts are only favored by one and the Falcons (rookie quarterback and all) are favored by 2.5 is beyond me. I know San Diego tends to play the Colts closely, but I don’t think that will happen here.

Colts 34, Chargers 21


SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)(-3) at
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphin Stadium
Of the five remaining teams in the AFC, this is the one team that the Ravens actually matchup well with. It’s no secret that the weakness in the Ravens defense is on the corners and safeties. Yes, Ed Reed makes a lot of plays, but he gets burned on a lot of deep balls. If your team has enough talent to keep the Ravens front 7 off the quarterback, then you can have success attacking downfield. The Colts proved this earlier in the season.

However, attacking downfield is not in the Dolphins game plan. This is an offense that is ball control and ball protection for the beginning to the end of the game. And they’ve had a lot of success doing it. The Dolphins have the least amount of turnovers in the NFL, and teams like that tend to win playoff games. They just simply don’t matchup well against the Ravens ball-hawking defense. The Wildcat formation isn’t going to confuse the Ravens. Baltimore already won by two scores in Miami back in October. I think it will be closer and lower scoring, but the result will be the same.

Ravens 16, Dolphins 10


Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1)(-3) at
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
4:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
I never, ever root for the Eagles. I know too many obnoxious Eagles fans that I just can’t bring myself to see those people happy. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy what the Eagles did to Dallas last weekend. That was simply amazing. No one could have written a better ending to Dallas’ season. They completely self-destructed and exhibited all the poor character traits that I said existed on that team back in August. Where are all those people in September that said the Cowboys would run the table? For those still counting, Tony Romo has still lost every important game he’s been in. Most of those losses have been his fault. He is a second tier NFL quarterback. In fact, he may not even be that good. Joe Flacco is in the playoffs with less talent around him. Romo is not in the top 10 of NFL quarterbacks. See ya Dallas, hope that huge expensive bust of a team was worth it.

Anyway, this was the line that gave me the most pause. Up until a month ago, the Eagles were dead in the water. And despite their recent improvement, it’s not like they are on that much of a streak. They just lost to the Redskins two weeks ago in an important game. The only way they are in the playoffs is Dallas, Tampa and Chicago all collapsed on the final weekend of play. Are they a good team? Yes. Are they a “2007 Giants-type team”? No. Not only that, they’ve been terrible on the road this season. Now they have to play against a good home team in a tough environment.

The Eagles have had problems all season running the ball consistently and stopping the run defensively. Neither of those traits help you win in the playoffs. Not only that, they’re facing the best running back in the NFC. And one of the best run defenses in the NFC. As much as picking Tavaris Jackson worries me, it actually makes more sense than taking the Eagles in a game that they’ll have to rely on the inaccurate arm of Donovan McNabb. Adrian Peterson goes for at least 125 and a couple of scores, and the Vikings win it comfortably.

Vikings 26, Eagles 17