Maryland Basketball: Meet The New Dookies, Same As The Old Dookies

Maryland Terrapins (13-5, 2-2) vs.
#2/2 Duke Blue Devils (17-1, 4-0)
Juan Dixon Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC

Please stop telling me that the Maryland Terrapins could be 4-0 in the ACC. First of all, they aren’t. Saying that they could be won’t magically bump up their RPI or change their record in the eyes of the tournament committee. Secondly, they could also easily be 0-4. Or are you conveniently forgetting that the Terps needed 28 Georgia Tech turnovers and narrowly avoided blowing another 17-point lead against Virginia? Enough. They are 2-2, and probably lucky to be .500 right now.

I’m not ignoring the fact that in all four conference games, Maryland has had long stretches of solid play. They have had entire halves without major issues. When their pressure defense works, and the Terps get out in transition, then they actually look like a competitive, ACC-caliber team. That’s not the problem. We know that Maryland can do a lot of things well. They aren’t helpless like the shorn husk of a program that Virginia trotted into College Park on Tuesday.

The offensive problems for Maryland are simple. They simply can’t operate in half court sets. Why? The lack of any threat taller than 6’8” is the main reason. The only “tall” player doing anything is Landon Milbourne, and he’s not your typical back-to-the-basket post player. The flex offense simply can’t work without a post-player who can flash out to the top of the key, set some screens, then flash back to the vacated spot on the floor and wait for a pass for an easy layup. Without that option, the flex offense is much easier to guard. Without that option, the flex offense struggles to succeed. What usually ends up happening is a failed attempt at a set play for the first 15 to 20 seconds of the shot clock, followed by panic and several players standings around watching the ball-handler until a forced shot is attempted. That comes complete with no big man to grab the rebound.

While the offensive problems are unlikely to change this season, it’s the defensive problems that are both the most confusing and easiest to fix. Maryland’s press has been more effective this season than in recent ones. There are times that this team mirrors the run-n-gun teams of the mid and late 90’s (those were always the more aesthetically pleasing Maryland teams to watch). Even undersized and stuck in half court sets, this defense can hold its own. Yes, the rebounding can be an issue from time to time, but it’s to be expected with a small team. What I can’t figure out is why Maryland forgets to cover the perimeter for five to ten minute periods. Everything can be going so well, then one made three pointer seems to unravel the entire defense. There’s no way to explain why this is happening. I would assume it’s because Gary Williams tells his big men to stop helping outside and focus on rebounding late in games. Whatever the case may be, it needs to change. The Terps are getting out-rebounded anyway, they might as well make it tougher for teams to make shots to begin with.

It would be a good time to start guarding the perimeter, because it’s time for the annual trip to Nerdville and the usual bombardment of threes from the Great White Hopes. The Dookies are up to their usual tricks of being overrated thanks to an easily manageable out-of-conference schedule and the rest of the “top 10” teams losing to tougher competition. When are analysts and voters going to understand that Duke does this every season? Go back and look at any of my other Maryland-Duke previews since I don’t need to say everything over and over again. The Geeks can shoot well until about mid-February. Then Ratface loses confidence in his bench, his starters end up playing 35 minutes a night, and all the shooters lose their legs as they get fatigued. In turn, with tired legs and a complete lack of an inside game (sound familiar?), the Dookies shooting percentage and win percentage dips dramatically in February and March. This year will be no different. I give Duke another couple of weeks before the losses start accumulating and the three-point shooting starts going south.

Looking at the stat sheet, and relying on my knowledge of the few Duke games I’ve seen this season, you already know that guys like Lance Thomas, Elliot Williams and 10th year senior David McClure are going to see their minutes decrease dramatically. That’s going to leave a rotation of Sweet Elbows Henderson, Screamin’ Jon Scheyer, non-threatening requisite black guy Nolan Smith, Tall White Stiff Who Can Shoot Threes, the Human Turnover Machine and Galactic Alien Space Captain Zoubek. That’s six men. The other three guys, along with Eurostiff Marty Pocius (yes, he’s still there!) will see occasional playing time followed by long periods on the bench. As a result, Scheyer, Henderson and Singler will all see their shooting percentages fall. As all Duke shooters have seen since Carlos Boozer took his tattoos to the NBA and Jason Williams played stuntman on his motorcycle.

Now the experts at ESPN will try to convince you that this Duke team is not like the last five or six editions. They have inside game! They play better defense! They are deeper than before! No they don’t and no they’re not. While Duke has always played good defense (it’s amazing what you can get away with when you play 8 vs. 5), their defense this year is no better than in years past. In fact, it looks as if Ratface and company have almost completely abandoned the tradition half court hedge play they used to run and drive ACC teams crazy with. The Dookies have the potential to be deep, but as discussed above, it doesn’t matter how deep a team is if the head coach doesn’t play more than six or seven guys. As for the inside game? That’s still debatable.

It appears, and again the returns are still very early, that Singler may actually be developing some sort of interior presence. He’s long been a 3 playing the 4 spot. And with the only other option inside being Captain Zoubek, Singler is forced to go grab a rebound or two. But he seems more adapt at driving this season. If he drives more, then he is the only player on this team that would really keep me up at night as an opposing coach. The rest of these players are one-dimensional. Zoubek will be in foul trouble early on. Henderson is scrappy (ask Tyler Hansbrough), can hit his shot if he gets open, but does little in terms of driving and rebounding. Screamin’ Jon is a spot up shooter…a poor man’s Backne if you will (by the way, how many times is ReDick going to request a trade from Orlando…shut up and collect your undeserved pay check you prick). Smith is an improvement at point guard over the Turnover Machine. I will give Ratface credit for that, even though I thought he should have benched Paulus two seasons ago. Paulus seems to be much more effective coming off the bench, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Like Maryland, Duke has yet to play North Carolina, Wake Forest or Clemson. I think all three of those teams are better than the Nerds. So that undefeated ACC record isn’t all that impressive considering the wins against Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech and NC State. And the Dookies had real problems taking care of Georgia Tech and NC State. Sure, Maryland is struggling against everybody. But if Duke is as good as their ranking, then they should have no problems against schools like that. So I question the ranking and I question the inflated record. Unfortunately, because Wake Forest decided to take a nap against the Hokies, if Maryland can’t come through at Juan Dixon Indoor Stadium, it looks as if the Cheer Sheets will be moved up to #1. So I think it's safe to say that the rest of the country will be rooting for the Terps in this one.

Now, can Maryland beat Duke? Absolutely. Against the ACC’s Big 4, Maryland matches up much better against Duke than any of the other three teams. Maryland’s weakness is also Duke’s weakness. Hard for the Fightin’ Virgins to go after the glass when they possess the shortest 7-footer in America and little else inside. Milbourne is the one guy who can hang with Singler defensively. And in the last 5 to 6 seasons, Maryland’s backcourt has always outplayed Duke’s, no matter what kind of talent was back there. On paper, it doesn’t appear to be too close. However, Gary Williams loves playing in Durham with nothing to lose. Greivis Vasquez has been very quiet over the last four games and is due for 25-point, 6-assist, 5-turnover effort. Adrian Bowie has come out of nowhere to be one of the best slashers in the conference (something Duke will have problems stopping). Eric Hayes has finally found his stroke over the past few weeks and is a legit threat from the outside. If Maryland can keep Duke from hitting too many threes, they can win this game. The Dookies, like some of the other teams Maryland has played recently, can get loose with the ball and can turn it over rather easily. Maryland has to push the tempo and create turnovers from the tip to the final whistle. I don’t think Maryland will win, but I refuse to pick Duke. So there will be no pick here. Sorry.


ACC PICKS:

Boston College 78, NC State 70
Florida State 82, Virginia 69
Miami 67, Virginia Tech 62
Clemson 87, Georgia Tech 73