NFL Playoffs: Every Home Dog Has Its Day

I finished the season 148-92-1 overall, and a weak 119-115-7 against the spread. I've had two awful weeks in a row. But the dream of an undefeated playoffs is still alive. It won't be easy. For the first time in NFL and Las Vegas history, all four road teams are favorites on wild card weekend. If history tells us anything, two home teams will win. Hopefully I picked the right two. As always, don't use the following picks for any gambling purposes.

SATURDAY

Atlanta Falcons (11-5)(-2.5) at
Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Are we sure this is a playoff game? At the beginning of the season, he Falcons were on everyone’s short list for team that would end up with the 1st pick in the 2009 draft. And the Cardinals were still the Cardinals. They were a team that after 20 years mired in ineptitude, had become mired in mediocrity for the past five. So to say no one saw this game coming is an understatement.

We know how the Cardinals managed to get here. They were simply the best team in the NFL’s worst division. In fact, the 2008 NFC West is so bad, it was the worst division in the NFL since the 2002 realignment. How bad was it? Well the San Francisco 49ers, a team that fired its coach midway through the season, a team that brought in Mike Singletary (despite no experience) to replace him, a team that then had to suffer through a now infamous coaching tirade and a bizarre pants-dropping incident, a team with no experienced NFL quarterback, actually finished 2nd in the division. Yes, there were actually two teams in the NFC West worse than the 49ers. San Francisco was the main challenge to Arizona for the division title. That’s how bad the NFC West was.

On the other hand, the Falcons had to go through the NFC South to get a wild-card bid. Yes the Falcons benefited from playing the NFC North and AFC West and got a couple of cheap wins (Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit). But they still had to play six games against their own division. A division tough enough, that any one of its four teams could have easily won the NFC West.

So you would think that makes this pick easy. Not so much. I’ve been picking against Atlanta all season. Why? Well, several reasons. This team is simply not ready to be an elite team. There is so much youth on the roster as so many key positions that it’s hard to believe this team can compete on the next level. The defense is inconsistent and unreliable. Just last week, in a game that was important to Atlanta, their defense gave up 27 points to the 2-14 St. Louis Rams. You factor in the rookie head coach and rookie quarterback, even though both have had terrific seasons, and it just doesn’t add up. I don’t want to say that the Falcons got to 11-5 using smoke and mirrors, but that’s the best explanation I can come up with. They aren’t “11-5 good”. I’m going to take the veteran quarterback and the home team in this game.

Cardinals 27, Falcons 24


Indianapolis Colts (12-4)(-1) at
San Diego Chargers (8-8)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Before we get to San Diego, I believe I was the only one who called Mike Shanahan getting fired after blowing a three game lead with three games left to play. Again, this guy hasn’t done anything since John Elway retired. How long can you rest on your laurels? It’s been ten years. Anyway, moving on.

The Chargers are now the trendy pick since they have “started to peak at the right time”. Everyone is looking for this year’s version of the New York Giants, and everyone thinks they’ve found it in San Diego. Except last year’s Giants team had quality wins and didn’t have Norv Turner as a head coach. The Chargers were 0-5 against playoff teams this season, and they got on their four game win streak by beating the hapless Raiders, the even more hapless Chiefs, the Buccaneers (who were in the process of complete their choke job) and the Broncos. Not exactly murderer’s row.

Meanwhile, the Chargers comeback has taken a lot of attention away from the Colts, who have won nine in a row. Those nine wins include victories over New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and even – you guessed it – these same San Diego Chargers in San Diego. The Colts are the hottest team in the NFL, and I don’t see them losing again this season. The Chargers are what they are, an 8-8 football team that needed a historic collapse by another 8-8 football team to get into the playoffs. Why the Colts are only favored by one and the Falcons (rookie quarterback and all) are favored by 2.5 is beyond me. I know San Diego tends to play the Colts closely, but I don’t think that will happen here.

Colts 34, Chargers 21


SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (11-5)(-3) at
Miami Dolphins (11-5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphin Stadium
Of the five remaining teams in the AFC, this is the one team that the Ravens actually matchup well with. It’s no secret that the weakness in the Ravens defense is on the corners and safeties. Yes, Ed Reed makes a lot of plays, but he gets burned on a lot of deep balls. If your team has enough talent to keep the Ravens front 7 off the quarterback, then you can have success attacking downfield. The Colts proved this earlier in the season.

However, attacking downfield is not in the Dolphins game plan. This is an offense that is ball control and ball protection for the beginning to the end of the game. And they’ve had a lot of success doing it. The Dolphins have the least amount of turnovers in the NFL, and teams like that tend to win playoff games. They just simply don’t matchup well against the Ravens ball-hawking defense. The Wildcat formation isn’t going to confuse the Ravens. Baltimore already won by two scores in Miami back in October. I think it will be closer and lower scoring, but the result will be the same.

Ravens 16, Dolphins 10


Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1)(-3) at
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
4:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
I never, ever root for the Eagles. I know too many obnoxious Eagles fans that I just can’t bring myself to see those people happy. But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t enjoy what the Eagles did to Dallas last weekend. That was simply amazing. No one could have written a better ending to Dallas’ season. They completely self-destructed and exhibited all the poor character traits that I said existed on that team back in August. Where are all those people in September that said the Cowboys would run the table? For those still counting, Tony Romo has still lost every important game he’s been in. Most of those losses have been his fault. He is a second tier NFL quarterback. In fact, he may not even be that good. Joe Flacco is in the playoffs with less talent around him. Romo is not in the top 10 of NFL quarterbacks. See ya Dallas, hope that huge expensive bust of a team was worth it.

Anyway, this was the line that gave me the most pause. Up until a month ago, the Eagles were dead in the water. And despite their recent improvement, it’s not like they are on that much of a streak. They just lost to the Redskins two weeks ago in an important game. The only way they are in the playoffs is Dallas, Tampa and Chicago all collapsed on the final weekend of play. Are they a good team? Yes. Are they a “2007 Giants-type team”? No. Not only that, they’ve been terrible on the road this season. Now they have to play against a good home team in a tough environment.

The Eagles have had problems all season running the ball consistently and stopping the run defensively. Neither of those traits help you win in the playoffs. Not only that, they’re facing the best running back in the NFC. And one of the best run defenses in the NFC. As much as picking Tavaris Jackson worries me, it actually makes more sense than taking the Eagles in a game that they’ll have to rely on the inaccurate arm of Donovan McNabb. Adrian Peterson goes for at least 125 and a couple of scores, and the Vikings win it comfortably.

Vikings 26, Eagles 17