Super Bowl XLIII: Out Of The Desert

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4)(-6.5) vs.
Arizona Cardinals (12-7)
6:20 p.m. Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
SUPER BOWL XLIII

I want to take this time to extend my gratitude to Pittsburgh and Arizona for ridding of us of the last two odious teams left in the tournament. With Philadelphia and Baltimore joining the rest of us on couches, we can now safely analyze an otherwise enjoyable Super Bowl. For the second time in four seasons, I find myself writing about the Steelers on the final Sunday of the year. Unless you are at least 61 years old, you have never written about the Arizona Cardinals in a NFL Championship situation. And chances are you didn’t write about them anyway. And if you did, chances are you aren’t reading this site. Let’s just move on to the game.

When the Cardinals have the ball:

The sexier of the two match-ups; Arizona’s offense against Pittsburgh’s defense. The focus is obviously on the Kurt Warner-Larry Fitzgerald combination. As it should be. However, getting the ball to Fitzgerald won’t be easy. It begins up front with the Cardinals offensive line. Two years ago, the Cards had one of the worst offensive lines in the game. When Ken Whisenhunt came over from the Steelers, he brought offensive line coach and former-Hog Russ Grimm with him. Since then, the Arizona line has been steadily getting better. They’ve gone from one of the league’s most porous lines to one of the toughest. The fact that Warner, a famously fragile and immobile quarterback, is still standing stands as testament to that.

The Steelers will use their speed and the multiple looks of the 3-4 defense to beat a bigger and more physical Cardinals lines. James Harrison, Lamar Woodley, Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior can come from anywhere at anytime. The best way to prevent Warner from getting the ball into the hands of Fitzgerald is to hit him before he can throw. And despite the improvement on the Cardinals line, the Steelers should be able to do that. It also helps that the Steelers possess Troy Polamalu, a physical safety that can also cover. That is something the Cardinals have not faced in their three postseason games (Brian Dawkins doesn’t count since he is not a good cover safety). Polamalu may be one of the only safeties that could possibly reign in Fitzgerald. As long as he has help from a corner.

The Cardinals running game has the potential to be the x-factor in this game. However, I have a feeling that during the two weeks off, Arizona is going to out-think itself and spend too much time passing the ball. Like they did back in November and December. Fitzgerald will make a couple of big plays and probably score once. I also think Anquan Boldin is due for a breakout performance assuming that he’s relatively healthy and not complaining. If the Cardinals use a balanced attack, they will score points. Even against a defense as good as this one. If they don’t, Warner will be a sitting duck by the beginning of the second half.


Larry Fitzgerald has been the best in the playoffs, but the Steelers will probably take him out.

When the Steelers have the ball:

The overall numbers suggest that the Cardinals defense is not good. I think those numbers are a bit skewed. This is a defense that spent way too much time on the field during the regular season. Either they were on the field because their offense scored too quickly, or they were on the field because their offense turned the ball over. Without a running game, Arizona’s defense struggled.

However, since the playoffs began, the Cardinals have used the Edgerrin James-Tim Hightower combination. They haven’t been all that effective running the ball, but they’ve kept their defense off the field a lot more than they did for the last four months. During the playoffs, we’ve seen the Cardinals defense turn into a turnover forcing machine. I know Jake Delhomme had a bad game, but I think the Arizona defense deserves some of the credit for producing five interceptions. I’m not comparing these guys to Pittsburgh’s defense, but they can still get the job done. I look around and see guys like Karlos Dansby, Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson on the defensive side, and that would worry me as an opposing coach. By the way, how awesome is it that the NFL’s two best safeties will be playing in this game? Again, like I’ve told you many times, if you haven’t seen Wilson play, try to get a peak at him on Sunday.

As for the Steelers, everything they do comes down to their offensive line. In the first half of the season, the like was in shambles. Credit to Ben Roethlisberger for having a decent season despite winding up on his butt all the way through October. But the line turned it around (much like the Cardinals line). Willie Parker, who dealt with injuries all season, also recovered in the second half. Now the Steelers fearsome running game is back on track. Pittsburgh should be able to run on the undersized Cardinals defense. The middle of that D is very inviting for a power team like Pittsburgh.


"Fast Willie" is fast again after getting healthy.

We all know about Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. The Steelers really need contributions from Heath Miller to keep the Cardinals guessing. The Arizona secondary should be able to handle Roethlisberger’s primary options. Miller, like the rest of the Steelers offense, came on strong at the end of the year and in the playoffs. He had a crucial touchdown catch in the win against San Diego. Miller could be a huge factor in this game if his quarterback continues to look for him. Other than Holmes, the Steelers don’t have the home run hitters that the Cardinals do. That makes Miller all the more important in clock consuming drives.

The coaches and other intangibles:

It’s hard to imagine a guy as young as Mike Tomlin earning the respect of the veteran players that the Steelers possess. It seemed like last year, despite the on-field success, Tomlin was not well liked by some of his players. That has changed this year in Pittsburgh.

However, I believe that Ken Whisenhunt will have the decisive advantage in this game. As I mentioned before, Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm both defected from Pittsburgh two seasons ago. Now I know that lots of things change in two seasons in the NFL, but the Steelers are basically the same team they were in 2006. Whisenhunt even managed to lead Arizona to a surprise win last year over a far superior Steelers team. If anyone knows how the Steelers operate on both sides of the ball, it’s Whisenhunt. Tomlin does not have that advantage. This, to me, is the most glaring difference between the two teams.

Prediction:

Now, will the coaching difference matter? A little bit yes, but it shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Obviously if one coach knows what the other is planning to do, then his team will be better prepared. However, the two week gap between games gives Tomlin time to catch up. And as it is always mentioned, coaches can’t win games. The players have to execute.

When the Steelers have the ball, I think Pittsburgh has the slight advantage. I think their interior is simply tougher than Arizona’s. If this becomes a high-scoring shootout, you play into the hands of the Cardinals linebackers and secondary. But if Pittsburgh manages to grind this one out, and they’re usually very good about controlling pace and tempo, then the Steelers should prosper.

I said that I don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have the type of game in the Super Bowl that he’s been having in the postseason. I think Pittsburgh will be far too prepared to stop him. I also said that I expect Anquan Boldin to snap out of his pouting spell and step up big. The player who may end up having the biggest game is forgotten receiver Steve Breaston. This is a guy who had 1,006 yards receiving this year. He’s not a complimentary receiver. He is one of the main targets. Warner has forgotten about him in the postseason, but I think that actually helps Arizona. When Pittsburgh goes to look at the tape of the Cardinals playoff games, they aren’t going to see a lot of Breaston. I think that Breaston will have at least one key play in this game, whether it be on offense or returning kicks, that will swing this game in Arizona’s favor.

Despite the rather generous line, and the difference in records, I think these two teams are basically even. Every advantage one team has is canceled out by one from the other squad. Pittsburgh, in my mind, is the very slight favorite to win this game. However, the Cardinals have been playing out of their minds for the past month. Of the two teams, they are playing the best football. Fitzgerald will score once, as will Breaston. The Steelers running game will test the Cardinals late, but this game will come down to Roethlisberger trying to lead a game-winning drive against the Cardinals secondary. For the first time in 61 years…advantage, game and championship: Cardinals.

Cardinals 28, Steelers 23