NFL Week 14: The NFC South Rises Again

A 9-6/9-6 week puts me at 109-70-1 overall and 91-84-5 against the spread on the season. As always, don't use the following picks for any gambling purposes.

THURSDAY

Oakland Raiders (3-9) vs. San Diego Chargers (4-8)(-9.5)
8:15 p.m. Qualcomm Coliseum
The Norv Watch is officially on. The Chargers got dominated at home by a Falcons team that had to come across the country. Add that to the fact that the Chargers have lost five games this season in the final minute, and doesn’t look good for ol’ Norv. I’ve heard several analysts blame the struggles on the players and the injury to Shawne Merriman. When your team loses five games in the last minute, that’s coaching. That has little to do with the players.
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (1-10-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
No, the Colts won’t win their division. Yes, they’ll have to win on the road. But do you really want to face this team when they’re healthy? Indy has three games coming up against terrible teams. They’ll be the five seed and travel to Denver, then probably Tennessee. I like their chances.
Pick: Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) vs. Chicago Bears (6-6)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Jack Del Rio’s name continues to hop around the hot seat. That makes absolutely no sense to me. I think he’s done a remarkable job in Jacksonville with limited offensive weapons. The Jags have had a ton of injuries. Del Rio deserves at least one more season to right the ship.
Pick: Bears

Houston Texans (5-7) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-7)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Mike McCarthy is one coach who should be on the hot seat. He, along with the Packers GM, did a terrible job with the Brett Favre situation in August. Since then, he’s wasted a pretty talented roster of a team that played in the NFC Championship game last season. Plus, his play-calling has become almost as predictable as Jim Zorn’s.
Pick: Texans

Cleveland Browns (4-9) vs. Tennessee Titans (11-1)(-13)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
It’s going to get much, much worse for Romeo Crennel before it gets better. In fact, it’s not going to get better at all. Maybe he can find work next year back in New England.
Pick: Titans

Minnesota Vikings (7-5)(-8) vs. Detroit Lions (0-12)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
If the Lions are going to win any of their remaining games, this is the one. They face a Vikings team fresh off a huge win and prime for a letdown. Gus Frerotte is bad enough and inconsistent enough that he can struggle against any team. Plus, the Vikings two defensive tackles, the strongest part of a mediocre defense, have just been suspended for the remainder of the regular season. However, the Lions are still the Lions.
Pick: Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles (6-5-1) vs. New York Giants (11-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Justice is blind. Almost a year to the day that Sean Taylor is killed trying to protect his family, Plaxico Burress is able to walk away from a self-inflicted gun wound that was made possible by a multitude of dumb decisions by Burress himself. Now, you try to tell me how in the world that’s fair. Hopefully jail time is in the future for Burress and Antonio Pierce.
Pick: Giants

Atlanta Falcons (8-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-6)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
The Falcons keep winning, and I keep picking against them. We’ll talk about this more later in the week, but you can keep the Flacco-Harbaugh combination in Baltimore. They at least have a veteran defense. The Matt Ryan-Mike Smith combination in Atlanta has been the most impressive tandem in the league this season. There is no other reason the Falcons should be 8-4 and closing in on the playoffs.
Pick: Saints

New York Jets (8-4)(-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
Anyone who didn’t believe me when I said the Jets were not a viable contender in the AFC, only has to go back and look at their game tape against the Broncos. That did not look like a playoff-worthy team on either side of the ball. Despite the small line, I’m going to split the difference here. The Jets already lost once in the Bay Area, no reason they can’t lose again.
Pick: Jets, 49ers cover

Miami Dolphins (7-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (6-6)(-1)
4:05 p.m. Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario
The Bills season was done the minute they lost to Cleveland. Now the only advantage they have against Miami - the Buffalo winter - will be negated since they’ll be playing indoors a few hundred miles away in Toronto. Playing a game in Canada doesn’t look so smart now, eh?
Pick: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) vs. Denver Broncos (7-5)(-9)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
I’d like to state again how unfair it is that the Broncos are 7-5 and can cruise to a division title. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 8-4 and are in third place in their division, while the Redskins are 7-5 and have already been eliminated from any chance of winning the East.
Pick: Broncos

New England Patriots (7-5)(-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-10)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
I’ve already sort of picked the Jets to win on the West Coast this week. Probably not a great idea to pick two eastern teams to do it. Still, Seattle is awfully bad this season.
Pick: Patriots

St. Louis Rams (2-10) vs. Arizona Cardinals (7-5)(-14)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Something tells me that the Cardinals will finally be able to clinch their division. Took them long enough.
Pick: Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
Easiest money line of the week. You have the Pittsburgh Steelers, fresh off an impressive performance in New England, coming back home where they are nearly unbeatable, playing a Dallas team that struggles outside of Texas, and they’re only favored by a field goal. That makes no sense. I know that Vegas is in love with the Cowboys as much as the media is, but that line is incredibly stupid.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (9-3)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Every time the Panthers have had a chance to make a statement this season, they’ve failed. That 9-3 record looks good, but it includes wins over Kansas City, Oakland, San Diego and Detroit. Their best win was home against Atlanta back in September, and last time they played Tampa they were blown out. Jake Delhomme is back to being erratic. Jonathan Stewart has shown little of the promise he flashed back in the pre-season. The defense has been inconsistent. I’ve really soured on the Panthers in the last few weeks.
Pick: Buccaneers

Coming up, the Redskins continue to lose important home games. So it’s a good time to hit the road. Well, sort of. If you count Baltimore as a road trip. Oh, is it time for the Battle of the Beltways already? You wouldn’t be interested in that, would you?