Maryland Basketball: Tale Of Two Games...Hopefully

#7/7 Duke Blue Devils (22-5, 8-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (17-9, 6-6 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

It was as unexpected as it was enjoyable. Just when everyone, including yours truly, was about to write off and bury the 2008-09 Maryland Terrapins, Greivis Vasquez and company reached their icy hands from the grave and pulled themselves back from the dead. At least for one weekend anyway.

It’s no secret that Vasquez has tested the NBA draft waters before, and continues to do so. This left many Maryland fans scratching their heads. Vasquez’s overall career at Maryland has been decent, but nothing remarkable. Nothing NBA-worthy. There haven’t been many moments after games when Terps fans left the arena saying “that guy will be in the NBA one day”.

Well Vasquez finally had that game against UNC. It is rare in college basketball when one player can win a team a game. And while Eric Hayes and Cliff Tucker certainly helped, it was Vasquez that kept Maryland in the game in the first half, made key decisions and passes in the second half and took over the game in overtime. Without Vasquez, Maryland is down by 16 to 18 points at halftime, they lose the game by 25 points or so, and there is certainly no overtime. This may have been the greatest single-game performance in Maryland history…certainly the best since Walt Williams almost scored 40 with a broken arm against NC State back in 1991. Most importantly, it came in a critical game. Vasquez was well on his way to being another Nik Caner-Medley; a guy who stuffed the stat sheet against bad teams and rarely showed up for a big contest. I think it’s safe to say Vasquez shook some of that label on Saturday.

Along with Greivis’ performance, and as I mentioned before, the Terps got key contributions from Hayes and Tucker off the bench. Hayes, like the rest of Maryland, started slow. He missed several open looks in the first half. In the past, Hayes would have stopped shooting and forced bad passes. For whatever reason, he committed to taking more shots in the second half, and got into a groove. His 17 points, including his three three’s and his clutch free throw shooting, were all important.

Then there was Tucker. I believe that I’ve been saying, since the beginning of the season, that Tucker needed more playing time. In fairness to Gary, Tucker definitely deserved to be pulled from the starting rotation in late December. However, he did not deserve to have his minutes dwindle to almost zero. He’s too dynamic of a player. The things that make Vasquez good (the fact that he is a guard, who is lightning fast, and also sort of tall at 6’6”) are the same things that make Tucker good. He’s too tall for a guard to defend him. He’s too quick and too good from the outside to have a big man step up and face him. With both Vasquez and Tucker on the floor at the same time, the Terps have two players that present huge matchup problems for the other team. Even if the other team is someone like North Carolina with NBA talent up and down the roster. The Heels tried to guard him with Danny Green, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson. They even had 6’8” Deon Thompson and 6’10” Ed Davis try to step out. None of it worked. UNC simply didn’t know what to do with this guy. Tucker’s 22 points and 6 rebounds, most of which were in the second half, was almost as impressive as Vasquez’s triple-double.

Another positive note coming out of the UNC game was the re-emergence of Jerome Burney. Jerome had been out with a stress fracture for most of the early season. However, he’d been ready to go for the past two or three weeks, and had seen very limited action. When Dave Neal and Dino Gregory picked up two early fouls a piece, and Landon Milbourne got in early second half foul trouble, Williams basically had no choice but to turn to Burney. Especially since Braxton Dupree has finally been relegated to the bench on a permanent basis. Burney’s two points and one rebound aren’t impressive, but his defense on Tyler Hansbrough and Thompson was sensational. He needs 12 to 15 minutes a game if he can continue to play defense like that. And besides, with Dupree thankfully strapped to a chair, and with Steve Goins in the witness protection program, the Terps need all the big men they can get until Jordan Williams and James Padgett can rescue them next season.

Now to the Nerds. Last time we saw these bunch of pricks they were laying the wood to Maryland by 41 points, they hadn’t lost in the ACC and they were on their way to a #1 ranking. Then a funny thing happened: Duke actually had to play several good teams (shocker…how dare the ACC!), their bench shrunk again, the three-pointers stopped falling for the most part and they lost four of their next six games. In other words, the Dookies are doing the same thing this season that they’ve done for the past five or six. They are going to back their way into a three or four seed in the tournament and get smoked in the second round by a team that doesn’t rely on jump-shooters and is physical inside. I told you that would be the case in November, I said it again in January and I’m sticking to it in late February.

Now, for shits and giggles, it’s time to “analyze” this game. There isn’t need for much. While the Dookies have looked pedestrian for the past month, they did beat Maryland by 41. Hard to get over that. You figure the change in venue is worth an 8 to 10 point swing. The fact that Duke played their best possible game in the first meeting and it can’t possibly play that well again is worth another 7 points or so. The fact that Maryland played as poorly as possible and won’t play that badly again is also worth about 7 points. They did shoot 28% from the floor. There is no chance they shoot that badly again. So you figure in the basics, and Maryland still has roughly 15 points to make up. A betting man would probably make that the line in this game.

However, we know that Maryland is going to get up for this game. No way they lay an egg in front of 18,000 red-clad fans (including your fearless Predictor). I don’t care how emotionally draining the win over UNC was. Maryland will get up for this game. Secondly, did anyone catch Duke’s win over Wake Forest on Sunday? Asides from being their only decent conference win the entire season, it appeared as if Ratface had spotted some cheese before the game, or at the very least a crooked AAU coach that could steer more bozo-looking white players to his program. He had his jacket off. He was jumping around. He was chest-bumping his players. Run of the mill for Gary Williams, very unusual for Ratface. It appeared as if he knew his team was falling apart. And after bad beatings by Clemson and UNC, he knew he couldn’t afford to lose to Wake for the second time this season. I smell a panicked rat! It worked for Duke, as they narrowly escaped another home loss. But, I have to question if Duke can get up for this game after an emotional victory for them. It seemed that Ratface put everything into that game with Wake. I’m not saying that Duke needs to be up for the game, or needs to play their best game to win. I’m just saying that I know Maryland will be emotionally ready…I’m just not so sure about the Great White Hopes. That will be a factor.

The two things that killed Maryland in the first meeting were Duke’s defense and Galactic Alien Space Captain Brian Zoubek. Now thankfully, Ratface has already taken care of the latter. As the calendar turns to February, Ratface’s bench and rotation shrink, and that means that the Giant Alien will be parked on the bench. So if you are expecting him to reprise his stunning 9-rebound, 4-block performance, get ready for disappointment.

As far as Duke’s defense goes, that could still be an issue, but not if the latest trend continues. The Geeks surrendered 101 points to UNC (in regulation and at home mind you…the Terps at least held them to 85 the second time around), 80 to Boston College and 91 to Wake. And giving up only 69 points to St. John’s isn’t bad until you realize that it’s St. John’s and they are horrendous. So in the last four games, Duke has allowed a stunning, UNC-like, 85.3 points a game. WOW! Again, not surprising considering the shrinking rotation. As the legs get tired, it becomes harder to play defense late in games. And the Dookies have been getting killed in the second half of games for nearly a month now. Maryland, meanwhile, has discovered a nine-man rotation. It may not be a great nine-man rotation, but it certainly looked good against a very deep Carolina team. The nine who played against UNC must see similar time in this game. Let’s keep seeing Tucker and Hayes off the bench. Give Burney and Gregory their minutes. Maybe a little less Sean Mosley and a little more Adrian Bowie. Whatever the case, Maryland needs to use all those players in this game and wear out a thinner Duke team.

Looking back to the last game against the Fightin’ Cheer Sheets, there is no possible way that Maryland scores only 44 points, shoots only 28%, goes to the line only 12 times (although with the Duke refs, you never know), turns the ball over 18 times, gets out-rebounded by nearly 20, has 12 shots blocked and has only one player score in double-digits. Maryland is going to play better. Perhaps much better. The only question is how much worse will the Dookies play, and can they get up for this game? If I knew the answer to that, my pick would be made with much more confidence. What the hell…

Maryland 78
Duke 77

ACC Picks:
Clemson 80, Virginia Tech 71
Wake Forest 83, NC State 70
Miami 74, Virginia 65

The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/23/09

The newest Top 25:

1. North Carolina (24-3), LW-2: The loss to Maryland was coming. Eventually the Heels have to commit to playing defense. We’ll see if that’s the inspiration.
2. Oklahoma (25-2), LW-3: The Sooners lost Blake Griffin to a concussion early in their close road loss to Texas. I’m assuming had he been healthy, OU would have cruised. So I’m not going to penalize them.
3. Pittsburgh (25-2), LW-4: This is not the best team in the nation. So I can’t put them as the #1 for now. We all know this team won’t get past the Sweet 16.
4. Connecticut (25-2), LW-1: Even though I think UConn is better than Pitt, the loss to the Panthers forces me to slide the Huskies to the fourth spot.
5. Memphis (24-3), LW-8: The Tigers win at UTEP was the first decent win they’ve had in three weeks. They’ve got two more tough tests coming up at Houston and UAB.
6. Louisville (21-5), LW-7: Two solid wins over bubble teams Providence and Cincinnati helped take some of the sting off their embarrassing 30-point loss to Notre Dame.
7. Villanova (22-5), LW-9: The most underrated team in the country. The fact that Scottie Reynolds is not having a great year makes it more impressive and ironically helps them fly under the radar.
8. Missouri (23-4), LW-10: After already scoring a win over Kansas, Mizzou is quietly keeping pace with Oklahoma in the top heavy Big XII.
9. Wake Forest (20-5), LW-5: The next class of the ACC is in this area. I really don’t know what to do with the Deacons, Tigers and Devils. The Deacons split with Duke and beat Clemson, so I’m giving them the nod right now.
10. Clemson (22-4): LW-11: I have a sneaking suspicion that the Tigers are the 2nd best team in the conference (although FSU can claim that recently). Still, they need another big conference win to go with their blowout of Duke.
11. Kansas (22-5), LW-12: A ho-hum week for the Jayhawks, as they easy beat Big XII North pushovers Iowa State and Nebraska.
12. Duke (22-5), LW-14: After yet another tough out-of-conference game against St. John’s (sarcasm alert), Duke finally posted a decent ACC win by barely holding Wake Forest under 100 points. Trying to do their best UNC routine?
13. Marquette (23-4), LW-13: The more I watch this team, the more unimpressed I become. Yes, the guard play is nice. But is this team physical enough inside to win in March?
14. Arizona State (21-5), LW-15: Although they only had one game this week, and it was a 2-point white-knuckler against rival Arizona, the Sun Devils are starting to resemble a dangerous tournament team. Must beat Washington this week to convince the rest of the country.
15. Michigan State (21-5), LW-6: The fact that they haven’t run away with the mediocre Big Ten, and the fact they were non-competitive in a loss to Purdue, means the Spartans fall a big nine spots this week.
16. Gonzaga (21-5), LW-17: Like Memphis, the Zags are quietly hanging around and running amok through a weaker conference.
17. Florida State (21-6), LW-23: Two more solid wins against Miami and Virginia tech push the Seminoles into the upper echelon in the ACC. Considering that Toney Douglas is doing it almost by himself, it’s worthy of a higher ranking this week.
18. Louisiana State (23-4), LW-19: Beating Arkansas and Auburn by a combined 10 points isn’t exactly running the gamut through murderer’s row. But they are 23-4 and easily in the tournament. Where they’ll be seeded…who knows?
19. Purdue (21-6), LW-22: Good week for the Boilers as they kept pace with Michigan State with a rather easy 18-point win.
20. Washington (20-7), LW-25: Despite a loss this week to UCLA (who UW already beat once), they are still in first in the Pac-10. That’s got to be worth a higher ranking, right?
21. UCLA (20-7), LW-16: They beat Washington, they lose to lesser Washington State. This team is too talented not to be ranked, and also too talented to be struggling like this.
22. Utah (20-7), LW-NR: This week, Utah is the best team in a deep and talented Mountain West. A Mountain West that could conceivably get five teams in. That, a seven-game winning streak puts the Utes in the rankings.
23. Xavier (22-5), LW-21: Loss to Duquesne two weeks ago was bad, as was their loss to Charlotte this week. They’ve gone from Elite 8 team to first weekend exit in 14 days.
24. Illinois (22-6), LW-18: They scored 33 points. Not in a half. In a game. They are lucky to be ranked at all. I hate the Big Ten.
25. Utah State (25-3), LW-24: Traveling in the middle of the week to play at St. Mary’s in the Bracket Busters wasn’t an easy task for the Aggies. They get one more chance to stay in the rankings.

Next five: Dayton, West Virginia, BYU, California, Minnesota


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (6): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (4): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Buffalo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Illinois State
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State

Notes: There are several teams missing that would raise eyebrows. The big two are Tennessee and Ohio State. While the Volunteers have played the nation’s toughest schedule, they haven’t beaten a whole lot of good teams and they’ve played terribly the past two months. Furthermore, they are only 7-5 in the worst power conference. Same goes for Ohio State. The computers numbers look good, but they are 7-7 in the Big Ten. They have a good win against Butler and another good one against Purdue. That’s about it. They’ve lost twice to Michigan State and twice to Illinois. Their recent loss to Northwestern looks bad. Plus, they have a rough next two games (Penn State, at Purdue). That’s why I felt, that despite low computer numbers, teams like Illinois State and St. Mary’s deserved bids over mediocre teams from mediocre conferences. Is this how it will shake down in a few weeks? Most likely not. My brackets will fluctuate between now and then.


THE BRACKETS

BOSTON REGION
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Jacksonville
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) South Carolina
Boise
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Western Kentucky
(5) Washington vs. (12) VCU
Minneapolis
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Vermont
(6) LSU vs. (11) St. Mary’s
Greensboro
(7) BYU vs. (10) Davidson
(2) Clemson vs. (15) North Dakota State

INDIANAPOLIS REGION
Dayton
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Alabama State/Radford
(8) Texas vs. (9) Wisconsin
Portland
(4) Arizona State vs. (13) Siena
(5) Florida State vs. (12) San Diego State
Miami
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) Cornell
(6) West Virginia vs. (11) Kentucky
Kansas City
(7) California vs. (10) Penn State
(2) Memphis vs. (15) Long Beach State

MEMPHIS REGION
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Morgan State
(8) Syracuse vs. (9) Utah State
Portland
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Illinois State
(5) Xavier vs. (12) Texas A&M
Minneapolis
(3) Missouri vs. (14) Weber State
(6) Utah vs. (11) Arizona
Philadelphia
(7) Butler vs. (10) Florida
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris

PHOENIX REGION
Kansas City
(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Stephen F. Austin
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Boston College
Boise
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) UNLV
Miami
(3) Duke vs. (14) American
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Creighton
Dayton
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Tennessee-Martin

Maryland Basketball: No Chance In Heel

#3/3 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-2, 10-2 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (16-9, 5-6 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

Real short and real sweet. As embarrassing as the Duke loss was, I think the Clemson loss may have been worse. And it’s sad that this is what Maryland fans have been reduced to debating now. At least against Duke you could say that Maryland played the worst they possibly could and the Nerds played out of their minds. That’s the only way the score got so lopsided. The real depressing thing about the Clemson game is Maryland actually played fairly well, at least in the first half, and the Tigers really only had 10 minutes of great basketball and 30 minutes of so-so. And they still won by 29.

I’ve never seen one team get so many highlight reel dunks in one game. That was unreal. Every play Clemson ran appeared crisp, well-planned, and well-executed. They could do no wrong within 10 feet of the hoop. And when Maryland overcompensated during Clemson’s second half run, the Tigers went outside and hit 9 three pointers in the second half. Again, the scary thing is that Clemson really didn’t play all that well. You combine that performance with their performance against Duke a few weeks ago, and it’s hard to believe that this team has somehow lost four ACC games. That’s how strong the conference is this season. Forget about the Big East. This is still the best conference in the country. I don’t know many Big East teams that could blow out Duke the way Clemson did.

The Terps run into North Carolina for the second time this season. And yes, just to make sure you’ve been paying attention, Maryland is the only team in the country that has to play both UNC and Duke twice this season. Awesome job ACC schedule makers. Seems fair. Just in case you don’t know how this one is going to end up, consider this: that Clemson team I just praised for blowing out Maryland and Duke already lost by 24 to North Carolina. And they actually played well in that loss.

UNC still has Tyler Hansbrough, in his 7th year of eligibility. He’s been the best player in the conference the past two seasons and I’m not sure why he found it necessary to come back for his senior campaign. It can’t be much of a challenge. Ty Lawson is still there. So is Wayne Ellington. So is Danny Green. I’m not sure how Roy Williams has managed to convince all his players to stay, but they all still reside in Chapel Hill and are making life miserable for the rest of the conference. For the past couple of seasons, it’s been UNC and everyone else.

When March rolls around, this is still the team that I think will be standing at the end of the NCAA tournament (I guess that’s April, not March…my bad). The only thing they don’t do well is play defense. Or they don’t play solid defense unless they feel like it. With tall athletic bodies, the Tar Heels can play defense. They just choose not to in most games. And when you score 92 points a game, you don’t need to play much of it. In fact, in the first meeting between UNC and Maryland, the Heels defense was atrocious. They gave up 91 points to the Terps and it was the best Maryland’s offense has looked all season. However, they scored 108, so it didn’t really matter. I know that “defense wins championships”. But all Carolina has to do is hold teams to 80 points a game and they’ll be fine. They are too deep and loaded with too many scorers for any team in the country to stop. Even in their losses (a respectable 3-point loss at Wake and the still perplexing 7-point loss to BC at home), the Heels averaged 84 points.

So how do the Terps win this game? Uh, unless there is a way to stop UNC’s bus from arriving at the arena, they don’t.

North Carolina 94
Maryland 76

ACC PICKS:
Miami 75, Boston College 70
NC State 71, Virginia 61
Florida State 68, Virginia Tech 65
Clemson 86, Georgia Tech 69
Wake Forest 84, Duke 77

Maryland Basketball: We <3 Our Coach

Maryland Terrapins (16-8, 5-5 ACC) vs.
#13/13 Clemson Tigers (20-4, 6-4 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum – Clemson, SC

Well, it appears my three weeks without internet may have been the good luck charm that Maryland needed. The Terps managed to win three of four games, with the one loss being expected and very predictable at North Carolina. They’ve had two very solid wins against Miami and Virginia Tech, and had a very ugly one against the Yellow Jackets. Still, 5-5 in the ACC isn’t bad. Have you seen the standings recently? Back to that in a moment.

The most intriguing development during my internet induced hibernation was the ongoing Gary Williams vs. Debbie Yow saga. Williams finally had the guts to tell the truth at a news conference the day before losing to Boston College. I surprised he didn’t do it earlier. When three top players are playing for other schools, and only one of them can remotely be blamed on you, how long would you have held your frustration in? It didn’t seem like a big deal since Gary likes to blow off steam every once and awhile anyway. However, with Yow in North Carolina attending to her sister’s funeral (again, maybe not the best timing by Gary to go off in the press, but it’s hard when the same questions are directed towards him at every conference), associate athletic director Kathy Worthington felt the need to defend the athletic department. Who is Kathy Worthington? Before she spoke, I had no idea. Gary had no idea. 99% of Maryland fans had no idea. Why Worthington felt the need to do this? Again, I have no idea. But she was anti-Gary and it made great press fodder for a week until Yow returned.

I’m about to do something that I don’t like doing. I’m going to compliment Yow. Since she was gone, she didn’t have to comment on the situation. She could have let Williams twist in the wind. She could have said nothing, or given the typical vote of confidence to Gary. But she came out, with Gary, at a press conference, and emotionally defended him. This was not the typical, b.s. vote of confidence. I really believe she was sincere. Now was she sincere because there are still 3 years and many millions of dollars left on Gary’s contract? That’s for her to tell you. But for the time being, Yow put a stop to the “fire Gary” crowd.

Also in the past couple of weeks, Washington Post reporters Eric Prisbell and Steve Yanda put out a lengthy three part series on post-championship Maryland. It was very well written and very well researched. I thought it would get rave reviews from Maryland fans everywhere. Apparently, a large portion of the Maryland fan base was put off by this article, including Gary Williams himself. I didn’t think the article put Gary in a negative light. I thought the article was fair and balanced, and even made Gary look like a sympathetic figure. The article simply explained why Gary hasn’t recruited all that well in the past five or six years. Most of it was blamed on the assistant coach turnover and his refusal to recruit AAU players (things that I’ve been saying for years). There is no shame in not playing the AAU game. Again, for Maryland fans who did not live through probation, being 16-8, 5-5 in the ACC is welcomed over the dregs of not being on television and finishing dead last in the conference. I don’t want AAU players. I don’t think Maryland needs AAU players. Maryland does need to do a better job at locking down local talent, and there is plenty of local talent that doesn’t mess around with the AAU. And I think that was the basic conclusion of the article. Anyway, if you haven’t read it yet, it’s worth the time. It was also great to see the overwhelming majority of Maryland’s fan base come to Gary’s defense at the last two home games. If anyone can mail me a “We ‘heart’ Our Coach” t-shirt it would be greatly appreciated.

Now, at 5-5 in the ACC, things don’t look so bad for Maryland…until you look at the remaining schedule. Maryland has three home games left. They are against UNC, Duke and Wake Forest. Those are all Top 10 teams this week. They still have road games against suddenly feisty NC State and Virginia, and one tonight again another Top 25 team in Clemson. Uh, big thank you to the schedule makers in North Carolina. It’s typical. As a Maryland fan, you get used to the ACC offices screwing your team over. I don’t think there is a school in the nation that has a tougher closing stretch than Maryland does.

Maryland should (heavy emphasis on should) beat NC State and Virginia. Even on the road. The fortunate part about the rest of the schedule being so tough is if Maryland somehow comes up with two other wins, they are basically a lock for the NCAA tournament. Who thought that was a possibility two weeks ago? 9-7 in the ACC, with two late victories against Top 25 teams would make it nearly impossible to keep Maryland out. The problem is obviously finding those two wins.

You would think that one has to come tonight. The Clemson Tigers have been struggling for a better part of a month. After losing their first game of the season to Wake, they’ve been blown out by North Carolina. They’ve lost to Florida State. They struggled in wins against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Boston College. The only complete game they’ve played was their complete beatdown of Duke the other week. All this cumulated with a stunning loss at Virginia on Sunday, which was reminiscent of old-school Oliver Purnell teams.

If the Terps can play like they did against Miami, and like they did against Virginia Tech, they have a chance to beat Clemson. A win puts Maryland at 6-5, ties them with the Tigers, and puts them only ONE GAME out of 2nd place in the ACC. As it is now, after North Carolina at 9-2, there are seven ACC teams within 1.5 games of 2nd place Duke. And 2nd place Duke has lost three of their last four and has looked awful in February (I believe it was me who told you that would happen). So this conference is a long way from being decided.

I don’t think Maryland will win. First of all, Clemson can rotate big men better than any team in the conference. Maryland can’t rotate anyone taller than 6’6” (unless we see more of Steve Goins…hint hint). If the Tigers don’t wax Maryland on the glass in this game, then it’s time to start calling into question Purnell’s job status. Also, the one thing that Maryland does will is press and pressure. However, the Tigers do it better. They are playing a hybrid version of Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell” and they made a veteran Duke team look like a SEC school the other week. Plus, even though the Tigers strength comes from the inside, K.C. Rivers and Terrance Oglesby are no slouches either. As Maryland found out in awful detail last season, Oglesby can kill you if you leave him alone outside. Finally, their ugly loss to Virginia will almost insure that Clemson won’t take another opponent lightly for another few weeks. That’s a type of loss that can snap a good team out of a funk. The only thing Maryland has on its side is the memory and revenge factor of their come-from-ahead loss last year in College Park. But I don’t see that being enough.

Clemson 83
Maryland 69

ACC Picks:
Florida State 72, Miami 68
Wake Forest 82, Georgia Tech 65
North Carolina 88, NC State 67
Virginia Tech 77, Virginia 72

The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/16/09

FINALLY! The internet is back at home! After the move, I anticipated being without internet for a few days. I didn’t think it would last three weeks. So without further ado, we get back to our regularly scheduled programming with the Top 25 and my first tournament projections of the season.

1. Connecticut (24-1): I don’t think there is much question here. The Huskies continue to roll through an overrated Big East.
2. North Carolina (23-2): An easy win in Durham was followed by tough win in Coral Gables. Both were impressive in their own way. Besides, this is the only ACC team that has behaved recently.
3. Oklahoma (25-1): Following a week in which they struggled with inferior opponents, the Sooners put away Baylor and Texas Tech rather easily. Still, Oklahoma has too many off-shooting nights for my liking.
4. Pittsburgh (23-2): This really can’t be the nation’s fourth best team, can it? Probably not, but the Panthers have had a relatively easy schedule recently. Other than tonight’s game against UConn, it won’t get harder for them until the season’s final week.
5. Wake Forest (19-4): As far as losses go, dropping games to Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech and Miami (and a big loss at that) doesn’t make a lot of sense. But what other team has wins over UNC, Duke, Clemson and Florida State? Exactly.
6. Michigan State (19-4): The best team – by far – in a truly mediocre conference.
7. Louisville (19-4): In typical Louisville fashion, just when you think the Cardinals are on a roll, they lose 33 to awful Notre Dame. I’m still scratching my head after seeing the score of that one.
8. Memphis (22-3): You can thank Conference USA for this ranking. However, holding a very good Tulsa team to 37 points this week didn’t hurt.
9. Villanova (20-5): A loss at West Virginia isn’t a big deal. The win against former Top 10 team Marquette was more important.
10. Missouri (22-4): I had the Tigers ranked 23rd a couple of weeks ago. Since that time, they’ve beaten Baylor, Texas and Kansas. This team is ready to make some real noise.
11. Clemson (20-4): You beat Duke. You win at Virginia Tech. You take Wake Forest down to the wire. Then you lose at Virginia. What? Welcome to the crazy ACC.
12. Kansas (20-5): This team has been under-ranked all season. I know they lost a lot of talent, but this is still a Sweet 16/Elite 8 caliber squad.
13. Marquette (21-4): They got embarrassed last week against South Florida, then didn’t show up in a marquee game against Villanova. Not a good 10 days.
14. Duke (20-5): Speaking of a bad 10 days, the Jumpin’ Nerds forgot to show up for either one of their second halves this week. Other than their win more than a month ago in Tallahassee, they have yet to beat a decent ACC team.
15. Arizona State (20-5): I guess this is the best team in the Pac-10. If you figure it out, please let me know.
16. UCLA (19-6): This was the best team in the Pac-10 before their weeklong trip to the desert left them with two lopsided losses.
17. Gonzaga (19-5): Look whose back! After taking a nose-dive around New Year’s, the Zags have recovered quick enough to run roughshod through a tougher-than-usual WCC.
18. Illinois (21-5): The Illini have emerged as the second best team in the Big Ten. That’s not saying a whole lot, but I guess it’s worthy of a #18 ranking for the time being.
19. Louisiana State (21-4): Ladies and gentleman, a SEC team has cracked the rankings! In fairness to me, it’s hard to tell how good any of those teams are since all they do is beat up on other mediocre SEC teams.
20. Dayton (23-3): Everyone wants to talk about Xavier in the Atlantic-10. Well, what about the team that just beat Xavier and is tied with the Muskies in the A-10 standings?
21. Xavier (21-4): Here is where Xavier belongs for the time being. Back-to-back losses to Duquesne and Dayton aren’t pretty.
22. Purdue (19-6): Averaged 55 points in their last two games…and won both! Oh, to be a Big Ten team.
23. Florida State (19-6): Despite the blowout loss against Wake Forest, I’m still impressed by what I’ve seen from FSU. They finally established themselves as the “5th” team in the conference.
24. Utah State (24-2): The slip against Boise State…is that a small bump in the road or a preview of what is to come in March?
25. Washington (19-6): Maybe this is the best Pac-10 team. Again, if you can help me deciphering this conference, it would be greatly appreciated.

Next Five: Butler, Syracuse, Boston College, California, BYU


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until next week or the week after. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Big XII (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (4): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Buffalo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Arkansas – Little Rock
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State