The Predictor Top 25, Tournament Bids & Brackets: 2/23/09

The newest Top 25:

1. North Carolina (24-3), LW-2: The loss to Maryland was coming. Eventually the Heels have to commit to playing defense. We’ll see if that’s the inspiration.
2. Oklahoma (25-2), LW-3: The Sooners lost Blake Griffin to a concussion early in their close road loss to Texas. I’m assuming had he been healthy, OU would have cruised. So I’m not going to penalize them.
3. Pittsburgh (25-2), LW-4: This is not the best team in the nation. So I can’t put them as the #1 for now. We all know this team won’t get past the Sweet 16.
4. Connecticut (25-2), LW-1: Even though I think UConn is better than Pitt, the loss to the Panthers forces me to slide the Huskies to the fourth spot.
5. Memphis (24-3), LW-8: The Tigers win at UTEP was the first decent win they’ve had in three weeks. They’ve got two more tough tests coming up at Houston and UAB.
6. Louisville (21-5), LW-7: Two solid wins over bubble teams Providence and Cincinnati helped take some of the sting off their embarrassing 30-point loss to Notre Dame.
7. Villanova (22-5), LW-9: The most underrated team in the country. The fact that Scottie Reynolds is not having a great year makes it more impressive and ironically helps them fly under the radar.
8. Missouri (23-4), LW-10: After already scoring a win over Kansas, Mizzou is quietly keeping pace with Oklahoma in the top heavy Big XII.
9. Wake Forest (20-5), LW-5: The next class of the ACC is in this area. I really don’t know what to do with the Deacons, Tigers and Devils. The Deacons split with Duke and beat Clemson, so I’m giving them the nod right now.
10. Clemson (22-4): LW-11: I have a sneaking suspicion that the Tigers are the 2nd best team in the conference (although FSU can claim that recently). Still, they need another big conference win to go with their blowout of Duke.
11. Kansas (22-5), LW-12: A ho-hum week for the Jayhawks, as they easy beat Big XII North pushovers Iowa State and Nebraska.
12. Duke (22-5), LW-14: After yet another tough out-of-conference game against St. John’s (sarcasm alert), Duke finally posted a decent ACC win by barely holding Wake Forest under 100 points. Trying to do their best UNC routine?
13. Marquette (23-4), LW-13: The more I watch this team, the more unimpressed I become. Yes, the guard play is nice. But is this team physical enough inside to win in March?
14. Arizona State (21-5), LW-15: Although they only had one game this week, and it was a 2-point white-knuckler against rival Arizona, the Sun Devils are starting to resemble a dangerous tournament team. Must beat Washington this week to convince the rest of the country.
15. Michigan State (21-5), LW-6: The fact that they haven’t run away with the mediocre Big Ten, and the fact they were non-competitive in a loss to Purdue, means the Spartans fall a big nine spots this week.
16. Gonzaga (21-5), LW-17: Like Memphis, the Zags are quietly hanging around and running amok through a weaker conference.
17. Florida State (21-6), LW-23: Two more solid wins against Miami and Virginia tech push the Seminoles into the upper echelon in the ACC. Considering that Toney Douglas is doing it almost by himself, it’s worthy of a higher ranking this week.
18. Louisiana State (23-4), LW-19: Beating Arkansas and Auburn by a combined 10 points isn’t exactly running the gamut through murderer’s row. But they are 23-4 and easily in the tournament. Where they’ll be seeded…who knows?
19. Purdue (21-6), LW-22: Good week for the Boilers as they kept pace with Michigan State with a rather easy 18-point win.
20. Washington (20-7), LW-25: Despite a loss this week to UCLA (who UW already beat once), they are still in first in the Pac-10. That’s got to be worth a higher ranking, right?
21. UCLA (20-7), LW-16: They beat Washington, they lose to lesser Washington State. This team is too talented not to be ranked, and also too talented to be struggling like this.
22. Utah (20-7), LW-NR: This week, Utah is the best team in a deep and talented Mountain West. A Mountain West that could conceivably get five teams in. That, a seven-game winning streak puts the Utes in the rankings.
23. Xavier (22-5), LW-21: Loss to Duquesne two weeks ago was bad, as was their loss to Charlotte this week. They’ve gone from Elite 8 team to first weekend exit in 14 days.
24. Illinois (22-6), LW-18: They scored 33 points. Not in a half. In a game. They are lucky to be ranked at all. I hate the Big Ten.
25. Utah State (25-3), LW-24: Traveling in the middle of the week to play at St. Mary’s in the Bracket Busters wasn’t an easy task for the Aggies. They get one more chance to stay in the rankings.

Next five: Dayton, West Virginia, BYU, California, Minnesota


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (6): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina

MAJOR
Atlantic 10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (4): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Buffalo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Illinois State
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Long Beach State
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Tennessee-Martin
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State

Notes: There are several teams missing that would raise eyebrows. The big two are Tennessee and Ohio State. While the Volunteers have played the nation’s toughest schedule, they haven’t beaten a whole lot of good teams and they’ve played terribly the past two months. Furthermore, they are only 7-5 in the worst power conference. Same goes for Ohio State. The computers numbers look good, but they are 7-7 in the Big Ten. They have a good win against Butler and another good one against Purdue. That’s about it. They’ve lost twice to Michigan State and twice to Illinois. Their recent loss to Northwestern looks bad. Plus, they have a rough next two games (Penn State, at Purdue). That’s why I felt, that despite low computer numbers, teams like Illinois State and St. Mary’s deserved bids over mediocre teams from mediocre conferences. Is this how it will shake down in a few weeks? Most likely not. My brackets will fluctuate between now and then.


THE BRACKETS

BOSTON REGION
Philadelphia
(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Jacksonville
(8) Minnesota vs. (9) South Carolina
Boise
(4) Kansas vs. (13) Western Kentucky
(5) Washington vs. (12) VCU
Minneapolis
(3) Marquette vs. (14) Vermont
(6) LSU vs. (11) St. Mary’s
Greensboro
(7) BYU vs. (10) Davidson
(2) Clemson vs. (15) North Dakota State

INDIANAPOLIS REGION
Dayton
(1) Pittsburgh vs. (16) Alabama State/Radford
(8) Texas vs. (9) Wisconsin
Portland
(4) Arizona State vs. (13) Siena
(5) Florida State vs. (12) San Diego State
Miami
(3) Wake Forest vs. (14) Cornell
(6) West Virginia vs. (11) Kentucky
Kansas City
(7) California vs. (10) Penn State
(2) Memphis vs. (15) Long Beach State

MEMPHIS REGION
Greensboro
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Morgan State
(8) Syracuse vs. (9) Utah State
Portland
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Illinois State
(5) Xavier vs. (12) Texas A&M
Minneapolis
(3) Missouri vs. (14) Weber State
(6) Utah vs. (11) Arizona
Philadelphia
(7) Butler vs. (10) Florida
(2) Villanova vs. (15) Robert Morris

PHOENIX REGION
Kansas City
(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Stephen F. Austin
(8) Dayton vs. (9) Boston College
Boise
(4) Michigan State vs. (13) Buffalo
(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) UNLV
Miami
(3) Duke vs. (14) American
(6) UCLA vs. (11) Creighton
Dayton
(7) Illinois vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Louisville vs. (15) Tennessee-Martin