The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/16/09

FINALLY! The internet is back at home! After the move, I anticipated being without internet for a few days. I didn’t think it would last three weeks. So without further ado, we get back to our regularly scheduled programming with the Top 25 and my first tournament projections of the season.

1. Connecticut (24-1): I don’t think there is much question here. The Huskies continue to roll through an overrated Big East.
2. North Carolina (23-2): An easy win in Durham was followed by tough win in Coral Gables. Both were impressive in their own way. Besides, this is the only ACC team that has behaved recently.
3. Oklahoma (25-1): Following a week in which they struggled with inferior opponents, the Sooners put away Baylor and Texas Tech rather easily. Still, Oklahoma has too many off-shooting nights for my liking.
4. Pittsburgh (23-2): This really can’t be the nation’s fourth best team, can it? Probably not, but the Panthers have had a relatively easy schedule recently. Other than tonight’s game against UConn, it won’t get harder for them until the season’s final week.
5. Wake Forest (19-4): As far as losses go, dropping games to Virginia Tech, NC State, Georgia Tech and Miami (and a big loss at that) doesn’t make a lot of sense. But what other team has wins over UNC, Duke, Clemson and Florida State? Exactly.
6. Michigan State (19-4): The best team – by far – in a truly mediocre conference.
7. Louisville (19-4): In typical Louisville fashion, just when you think the Cardinals are on a roll, they lose 33 to awful Notre Dame. I’m still scratching my head after seeing the score of that one.
8. Memphis (22-3): You can thank Conference USA for this ranking. However, holding a very good Tulsa team to 37 points this week didn’t hurt.
9. Villanova (20-5): A loss at West Virginia isn’t a big deal. The win against former Top 10 team Marquette was more important.
10. Missouri (22-4): I had the Tigers ranked 23rd a couple of weeks ago. Since that time, they’ve beaten Baylor, Texas and Kansas. This team is ready to make some real noise.
11. Clemson (20-4): You beat Duke. You win at Virginia Tech. You take Wake Forest down to the wire. Then you lose at Virginia. What? Welcome to the crazy ACC.
12. Kansas (20-5): This team has been under-ranked all season. I know they lost a lot of talent, but this is still a Sweet 16/Elite 8 caliber squad.
13. Marquette (21-4): They got embarrassed last week against South Florida, then didn’t show up in a marquee game against Villanova. Not a good 10 days.
14. Duke (20-5): Speaking of a bad 10 days, the Jumpin’ Nerds forgot to show up for either one of their second halves this week. Other than their win more than a month ago in Tallahassee, they have yet to beat a decent ACC team.
15. Arizona State (20-5): I guess this is the best team in the Pac-10. If you figure it out, please let me know.
16. UCLA (19-6): This was the best team in the Pac-10 before their weeklong trip to the desert left them with two lopsided losses.
17. Gonzaga (19-5): Look whose back! After taking a nose-dive around New Year’s, the Zags have recovered quick enough to run roughshod through a tougher-than-usual WCC.
18. Illinois (21-5): The Illini have emerged as the second best team in the Big Ten. That’s not saying a whole lot, but I guess it’s worthy of a #18 ranking for the time being.
19. Louisiana State (21-4): Ladies and gentleman, a SEC team has cracked the rankings! In fairness to me, it’s hard to tell how good any of those teams are since all they do is beat up on other mediocre SEC teams.
20. Dayton (23-3): Everyone wants to talk about Xavier in the Atlantic-10. Well, what about the team that just beat Xavier and is tied with the Muskies in the A-10 standings?
21. Xavier (21-4): Here is where Xavier belongs for the time being. Back-to-back losses to Duquesne and Dayton aren’t pretty.
22. Purdue (19-6): Averaged 55 points in their last two games…and won both! Oh, to be a Big Ten team.
23. Florida State (19-6): Despite the blowout loss against Wake Forest, I’m still impressed by what I’ve seen from FSU. They finally established themselves as the “5th” team in the conference.
24. Utah State (24-2): The slip against Boise State…is that a small bump in the road or a preview of what is to come in March?
25. Washington (19-6): Maybe this is the best Pac-10 team. Again, if you can help me deciphering this conference, it would be greatly appreciated.

Next Five: Butler, Syracuse, Boston College, California, BYU


Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding until next week or the week after. The conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conferences. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. The conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (7): Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (6): Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue
Big XII (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Pac-10 (5): Arizona, Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (2): Dayton, Xavier
Conference USA: Memphis
Mountain West (4): BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah

MID-MAJOR
Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon: Butler
Mid-American: Buffalo
Missouri Valley: Creighton, Northern Iowa
Sun Belt: Arkansas – Little Rock
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Western Athletic: Utah State

SMALL
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Radford
Big West: Cal State-Northridge
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Morehead State
Patriot: American
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State