Maryland Basketball: Tale Of Two Games...Hopefully

#7/7 Duke Blue Devils (22-5, 8-4 ACC) vs.
Maryland Terrapins (17-9, 6-6 ACC)
Comcast Center – College Park, MD

It was as unexpected as it was enjoyable. Just when everyone, including yours truly, was about to write off and bury the 2008-09 Maryland Terrapins, Greivis Vasquez and company reached their icy hands from the grave and pulled themselves back from the dead. At least for one weekend anyway.

It’s no secret that Vasquez has tested the NBA draft waters before, and continues to do so. This left many Maryland fans scratching their heads. Vasquez’s overall career at Maryland has been decent, but nothing remarkable. Nothing NBA-worthy. There haven’t been many moments after games when Terps fans left the arena saying “that guy will be in the NBA one day”.

Well Vasquez finally had that game against UNC. It is rare in college basketball when one player can win a team a game. And while Eric Hayes and Cliff Tucker certainly helped, it was Vasquez that kept Maryland in the game in the first half, made key decisions and passes in the second half and took over the game in overtime. Without Vasquez, Maryland is down by 16 to 18 points at halftime, they lose the game by 25 points or so, and there is certainly no overtime. This may have been the greatest single-game performance in Maryland history…certainly the best since Walt Williams almost scored 40 with a broken arm against NC State back in 1991. Most importantly, it came in a critical game. Vasquez was well on his way to being another Nik Caner-Medley; a guy who stuffed the stat sheet against bad teams and rarely showed up for a big contest. I think it’s safe to say Vasquez shook some of that label on Saturday.

Along with Greivis’ performance, and as I mentioned before, the Terps got key contributions from Hayes and Tucker off the bench. Hayes, like the rest of Maryland, started slow. He missed several open looks in the first half. In the past, Hayes would have stopped shooting and forced bad passes. For whatever reason, he committed to taking more shots in the second half, and got into a groove. His 17 points, including his three three’s and his clutch free throw shooting, were all important.

Then there was Tucker. I believe that I’ve been saying, since the beginning of the season, that Tucker needed more playing time. In fairness to Gary, Tucker definitely deserved to be pulled from the starting rotation in late December. However, he did not deserve to have his minutes dwindle to almost zero. He’s too dynamic of a player. The things that make Vasquez good (the fact that he is a guard, who is lightning fast, and also sort of tall at 6’6”) are the same things that make Tucker good. He’s too tall for a guard to defend him. He’s too quick and too good from the outside to have a big man step up and face him. With both Vasquez and Tucker on the floor at the same time, the Terps have two players that present huge matchup problems for the other team. Even if the other team is someone like North Carolina with NBA talent up and down the roster. The Heels tried to guard him with Danny Green, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson. They even had 6’8” Deon Thompson and 6’10” Ed Davis try to step out. None of it worked. UNC simply didn’t know what to do with this guy. Tucker’s 22 points and 6 rebounds, most of which were in the second half, was almost as impressive as Vasquez’s triple-double.

Another positive note coming out of the UNC game was the re-emergence of Jerome Burney. Jerome had been out with a stress fracture for most of the early season. However, he’d been ready to go for the past two or three weeks, and had seen very limited action. When Dave Neal and Dino Gregory picked up two early fouls a piece, and Landon Milbourne got in early second half foul trouble, Williams basically had no choice but to turn to Burney. Especially since Braxton Dupree has finally been relegated to the bench on a permanent basis. Burney’s two points and one rebound aren’t impressive, but his defense on Tyler Hansbrough and Thompson was sensational. He needs 12 to 15 minutes a game if he can continue to play defense like that. And besides, with Dupree thankfully strapped to a chair, and with Steve Goins in the witness protection program, the Terps need all the big men they can get until Jordan Williams and James Padgett can rescue them next season.

Now to the Nerds. Last time we saw these bunch of pricks they were laying the wood to Maryland by 41 points, they hadn’t lost in the ACC and they were on their way to a #1 ranking. Then a funny thing happened: Duke actually had to play several good teams (shocker…how dare the ACC!), their bench shrunk again, the three-pointers stopped falling for the most part and they lost four of their next six games. In other words, the Dookies are doing the same thing this season that they’ve done for the past five or six. They are going to back their way into a three or four seed in the tournament and get smoked in the second round by a team that doesn’t rely on jump-shooters and is physical inside. I told you that would be the case in November, I said it again in January and I’m sticking to it in late February.

Now, for shits and giggles, it’s time to “analyze” this game. There isn’t need for much. While the Dookies have looked pedestrian for the past month, they did beat Maryland by 41. Hard to get over that. You figure the change in venue is worth an 8 to 10 point swing. The fact that Duke played their best possible game in the first meeting and it can’t possibly play that well again is worth another 7 points or so. The fact that Maryland played as poorly as possible and won’t play that badly again is also worth about 7 points. They did shoot 28% from the floor. There is no chance they shoot that badly again. So you figure in the basics, and Maryland still has roughly 15 points to make up. A betting man would probably make that the line in this game.

However, we know that Maryland is going to get up for this game. No way they lay an egg in front of 18,000 red-clad fans (including your fearless Predictor). I don’t care how emotionally draining the win over UNC was. Maryland will get up for this game. Secondly, did anyone catch Duke’s win over Wake Forest on Sunday? Asides from being their only decent conference win the entire season, it appeared as if Ratface had spotted some cheese before the game, or at the very least a crooked AAU coach that could steer more bozo-looking white players to his program. He had his jacket off. He was jumping around. He was chest-bumping his players. Run of the mill for Gary Williams, very unusual for Ratface. It appeared as if he knew his team was falling apart. And after bad beatings by Clemson and UNC, he knew he couldn’t afford to lose to Wake for the second time this season. I smell a panicked rat! It worked for Duke, as they narrowly escaped another home loss. But, I have to question if Duke can get up for this game after an emotional victory for them. It seemed that Ratface put everything into that game with Wake. I’m not saying that Duke needs to be up for the game, or needs to play their best game to win. I’m just saying that I know Maryland will be emotionally ready…I’m just not so sure about the Great White Hopes. That will be a factor.

The two things that killed Maryland in the first meeting were Duke’s defense and Galactic Alien Space Captain Brian Zoubek. Now thankfully, Ratface has already taken care of the latter. As the calendar turns to February, Ratface’s bench and rotation shrink, and that means that the Giant Alien will be parked on the bench. So if you are expecting him to reprise his stunning 9-rebound, 4-block performance, get ready for disappointment.

As far as Duke’s defense goes, that could still be an issue, but not if the latest trend continues. The Geeks surrendered 101 points to UNC (in regulation and at home mind you…the Terps at least held them to 85 the second time around), 80 to Boston College and 91 to Wake. And giving up only 69 points to St. John’s isn’t bad until you realize that it’s St. John’s and they are horrendous. So in the last four games, Duke has allowed a stunning, UNC-like, 85.3 points a game. WOW! Again, not surprising considering the shrinking rotation. As the legs get tired, it becomes harder to play defense late in games. And the Dookies have been getting killed in the second half of games for nearly a month now. Maryland, meanwhile, has discovered a nine-man rotation. It may not be a great nine-man rotation, but it certainly looked good against a very deep Carolina team. The nine who played against UNC must see similar time in this game. Let’s keep seeing Tucker and Hayes off the bench. Give Burney and Gregory their minutes. Maybe a little less Sean Mosley and a little more Adrian Bowie. Whatever the case, Maryland needs to use all those players in this game and wear out a thinner Duke team.

Looking back to the last game against the Fightin’ Cheer Sheets, there is no possible way that Maryland scores only 44 points, shoots only 28%, goes to the line only 12 times (although with the Duke refs, you never know), turns the ball over 18 times, gets out-rebounded by nearly 20, has 12 shots blocked and has only one player score in double-digits. Maryland is going to play better. Perhaps much better. The only question is how much worse will the Dookies play, and can they get up for this game? If I knew the answer to that, my pick would be made with much more confidence. What the hell…

Maryland 78
Duke 77

ACC Picks:
Clemson 80, Virginia Tech 71
Wake Forest 83, NC State 70
Miami 74, Virginia 65