Buccaneers at Redskins: If I've Told You Once, I've Told You 1,000 Times...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. Washington Redskins (1-2)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, it was embarrassing. No, I haven’t been able to watch any football for the past week. I honestly don’t know what happened in most of last week’s later games. Other than checking my fantasy football team, I’ve pretty much stayed away from the NFL as a whole. Losing to a team on a 19-game losing streak will do that. And as bad as the Lions were and are, it’s not like the majority of Redskins didn’t see this coming. This is what they do. They win games they shouldn’t. They lose games they shouldn’t. They make terrible opponents look like world beaters. Yet, they manage to usually give upper echelon teams decent games.

Now it’s time to look ahead. It beats looking back. It’s time to start that “Redskins fan mentality” of convincing yourself that your team is better than they probably are. Maybe that’s what I’m about to do. Maybe I’m just looking at the schedule and still being optimistic. Maybe I’m just telling it like it is. Maybe a combination of all three. Coming in to the season, I figured the Skins would be 3-2 after five games. I figured the wins would come against St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa. The losses would be to New York and Carolina. Well, Carolina is a lot worse than anyone thought they would be. The Skins next three games are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Combined record: 0-9. Each of those teams, along with Cleveland and St. Louis, could make a case of being the worst in the NFL right now. Of course to go 3-2 (and possibly 4-2), the Redskins would actually have to show up against inferior opponents. Which we know they won’t do. I don’t care if they win each game by a point, but just win the damn games. These are absolutely lousy teams. As embarrassing as the Detroit loss is (And many Redskins like to point out that the Lions should be better this season than last and the loss isn’t that embarrassing in the big picture. I agree to some extent. Detroit will probably win three or four games, and at the end of the season, that loss won’t look any worse than the losses last season to St. Louis and Cincinnati. Still, it’s no excuse. The Skins should have won that game handedly.), it’s just one loss. All it does is it eliminates some wiggle room for the Redskins in the second half of the season. They just have to win a game like Carolina to make up for it. It’s too early to be a season-crushing defeat. Only if the Skins allow it to ruin their season will the loss to Detroit actually ruin their season.

Just like the last two weeks, it’s the same problems that continue to plague the Redskins. Jim Zorn refuses to commit to the run. I’m not sure why. Clinton Portis had a rough first half (-2 yards), but that’s mostly because he only carried the ball four times. Four times! Against a terrible run defense! Moreover, the real problem continues to be the defense. Statistically, the defense is in the top half of the league in most categories. However, there is one category that proves the point I’ve been trying to make the last two weeks. The Redskins defense is dead last in the NFL on 3rd down. Dead last. Worse than Detroit. Worse than Tampa Bay. Worse than Cleveland. They allow opponents to convert 51% of their 3rd downs. The defense bends rather than breaks, but they simply cannot get off the field.

Why is that? Well, I’m glad you asked. Just go back over my last two game previews. The Redskins refuse to blitz. More specifically, Greg Blache refuses to blitz. The Redskins are now blitzing slightly less than 18% of the time on passing plays (which is actually up compared to the last two weeks). The NFL average is usually somewhere around 33-37%. This is why the Lions, quarterbacked by a rookie who had 1 TD and 5 INT in his first two games, were able to go on scoring drives of 99, 74, 86 and 85 yards.

It really boggles the mind that Blache is not only allowed to do this, but no one in the media is calling him out on it. In fact, it’s Washington’s defense that is praised while Washington’s offense is thrown under the bus. I really think the offense is close to clicking; they’ve just been a hair off here and there in the first three weeks. But the defense is nowhere close. The rumor is that Blache has no confidence in his secondary (More fuel has been added to that fire this week with the benching of Chris Horton. Horton has played tremendously well, had one bad play last week, and will now be sitting on the bench watching Reed Doughty play. I don’t understand that one. Maybe Horton is the scapegoat for his costly pass interference call. But give me a safety that makes the right play 98% of the time over a guy like Doughty who is strictly average). Since Blache has no confidence in his secondary, he drops linebackers and ends back into coverage to compensate. I don’t think the Skins secondary is other-worldly, but they are still a good unit. I simply think Blache is compensating for his lack of play-calling or play-designing ability. Either way, the proof is in the pudding. The Redskins allowed Detroit to go 9/11 on 3rd down in the first half last week. I don’t care if it’s New England or New Orleans or the ’88 49ers. No NFL team should be able to go 9/11 on 3rd down over the course of a half. Certainly not the 2009 Detroit Lions. I’m sick and tired of watching other teams convert 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-6, 3rd-and-10, etc…

Furthermore, Blache had the perfect opportunity in the first three games to pressure the quarterback. It’s not like he’s playing a quarterback like Donovan McNabb or Drew Brees that have mobility and can beat you outside the pocket. He played Eli “Big Stiff” Manning, Marc “Even Bigger Stiff and Injury Risk” Bulger, and a rookie quarterback playing in his third NFL game. I don’t think the NFL could have created a better three game stretch for an aggressive defensive coordinator. Unfortunately, the Redskins are stuck with Blache. I never think firing coaches or coordinators in midseason helps. It’s usually a major impediment for a team to overcome (the three teams that fired their offensive coordinators right before the beginning of the season are 0-9 and look even worse than their records indicate). But if Zorn, or Vinny Cerrato or even Dan Snyder were to fire Blache today, I would rejoice. Defensively, things can’t get much worse.

As for their game against the Bucs, the opportunity will once again be there to blitz. It's as if the football Gods took pity on the Redskins, and are now letting them face a quarterback who has never started a game in the NFL. 2-year QB Josh Johnson will get the nod over Byron Leftwich (who torched the Skins last year while with the Steelers). Johnson is out of the University of San Diego, and was a guy I was hoping the Skins would draft. He set numerous school and I-AA records while with the Toreros. Unfortunately, that success has not yet translated to the NFL. Aside from the last drive of last week's blowout loss to the Giants, Johnson has not seen the field.

So what better way for the Skins to get healthy, at least defensively, then against a team that hasn't scored in almost five quarters and is facing a quarterback that has never taken a meaningful NFL snap? I can't think of any. Will Blache choose to bring pressure? His track record says no.

The Bucs would be the worst team in the league if not for Cleveland. They have a running game with Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham. After that, there's not much here to remind you of the Bucs teams from the late 90's and early 00's. We already know the passing game is a mess. The once fearsome defense has been completely torn apart in an effort to rebuild. The secondary, once a model of efficiency while playing the dreaded "Tampa 2", is now in shambles. Other than Cleveland and maybe Dallas, there is no team more susceptible to the deep ball than Tampa Bay.

On top of that, you won't find either Tony Dungy or Jon Gruden on the sideline. Instead it's 32-year-old Raheem Morris. Morris may be the least qualified coach in the NFL. He was an assistant defensive coach with the Buccaneers from 2003-05. He spent 2006 as defensive coordinator for Kansas State. Then he spent 2007 and 2008 as the defensive backs coach for the Bucs. Instead of getting some experience as a head coach at a college level, or as a coordinator at the NFL level, Morris somehow made the jump from Manhattan, KS to head coach of a professional football team. Not sure how that happened exactly. There is definitely a step missing somewhere. Either way, it's been a disaster so far. Morris was one of those coaches who fired his offensive coordinator weeks before the season started. Tampa kept close for 3 quarters against Dallas during Week 1, but were blown out by Buffalo and the Giants the last two weeks. This is not a good football team.

So we know how the Redskins should play to win this game. It's the same way they should have played the last two weeks. The only question that remains is if they will learn from their mistakes and finally start playing up to their strengths. Common logic says they will, recent history says they won't.