Second Half Predictions: AFC

Here is what I think the final standings will look like after New Year's Day. Obviously it is near impossible to predict what will happen from week to week, let alone what is going to happen down the stretch in December. Injuries, both past and future, will play a big role. I’m going by what the teams have done so far, and what their schedule looks like. I’ve broken the two conferences into two separate posts so it’s a bit easier to read. Here is the AFC, enjoy…

AFC

EAST

New England Patriots
Currently: 4-4
Will finish: 10-6
The Patriots soft division and soft schedule will help them limp into the playoffs and even get a home game in the first round. New England gets to play five games in the second half against AFC East foes, and they should win at least four of those games. Hopefully, they will be knocked off in the second round.

Miami Dolphins
Currently: 3-5
Will Finish: 7-9
I believe the Fins will play .500 ball in the second half. Miami has a couple of games against New England (aka…two losses), but the rest of the schedule should play out well. I would call Miami a dangerous spoiler team, but they don’t face anyone of note other than the Pats down the stretch. Still, their running game and aggressive defense should allow them to play well on the road in December.

Buffalo Bills
Currently: 3-5
Will Finish: 6-10
Buffalo’s upcoming schedule is a bit tougher than Miami’s. That is the only reason I think they will finish one game below the Dolphins. The two teams are basically the same save for the schedule. The Bills running game is slightly better than Miami’s, while the Dolphins defense is better than the Bills.

New York Jets
Currently: 2-6
Will Finish: 4-12
A schedule that includes Carolina, Denver, a road trip to Miami and two games against New England will not help the quarterback-less Jets. Even if Jay Fielder comes back from injury in the second half, how much of a difference can he really make?

NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers
Currently: 6-2
Will Finish: 12-4
Putting the Steelers at 12-4 is a bit of a risk. No one really knows how serious Big Ben’s knee injury is. If it is worse than most expect, then the Steelers might be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs in the ultra-competitive AFC. Tommy Maddox and Charlie Batch won’t be able to get the job done in the second half. But Pittsburgh has two gimme wins against Cleveland and Baltimore the next two weeks before facing Indianapolis and Cincinnati. Rest Ben for the next two games, hope Batch can just do enough to win, and hope that Roethlisberger’s knee is close to 100% when he comes back.

Cincinnati Bengals
Currently: 7-2
Will Finish: 12-4
Like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati should do well in the second half and finish tied with the Steelers. The December 4th match-up at Pittsburgh will determine the winner of the division. I think the Steelers will win (again, assuming that Big Ben is healthy). Because of that, the Bengals will be a 12-4 wild card team. Tough luck for them, but considering that they haven’t been in the playoffs since 1990, I’m sure their fans will take it.

Baltimore Ravens
Currently: 2-6
Will Finish: 4-12
I said at the beginning of the season that Baltimore would go 5-11. I was wrong. They’re going to go 4-12. A tough schedule in the second half, along with a pathetic offense and a banged-up defense will complete the fall of the Ravens. The worst news is they will probably beat Cleveland the last week of the year, giving them the season sweep, a third place finish, and a tougher schedule next year.

Cleveland Browns
Currently: 3-5
Will Finish: 4-12
Romeo Crennel has done a good job of getting the Browns to 3-5. However, the second half schedule and meaningless games will undermine the chances of Cleveland to finish around .500. They play Jacksonville, Miami, Baltimore, at Oakland, at Minnesota, at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice. I don’t see them winning more than one of those games.

SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts
Currently: 8-0
Will Finish: 14-2
The Colts cruised through the first two months, but won’t be able to do the same in the second half. They have games against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle. They will clinch everything in the next couple of weeks, which means that they will rest some of their guys against good competition. Look for a few losses along the way. The Colts should still have homefield throughout the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Currently: 5-3
Will Finish: 11-5
Before you think I’m crazy, look at their remaining schedule. Here it is, in order: Baltimore, at Tennessee, at Arizona, at Cleveland, Indianapolis, San Francisco, at Houston and Tennessee. Other than the game against the Colts, could they really lose more than one other game the rest of the year against this schedule? How could they not go 11-5?

Tennessee Titans
Currently: 2-7
Will Finish: 6-10
I think there is a decent chance for the Titans to finish the year at 4-3. Like Jacksonville, they have a cupcake schedule. This is a young team that will bond and play better down the stretch. Because of the team’s youth, a lot of their guys will be playing for their jobs and spots on the team next year. That should be added incentive to finish the second half on a positive note.

Houston Texans
Currently: 1-7
Will Finish: 3-13
The Texans should manage two more wins if they continue to play as hard as they’ve been playing the last few weeks. Other than that, it’s going to be a tough last two months for Houston, and they probably won’t get the number one pick with a 3-13 record.

WEST

San Diego Chargers
Currently: 5-4
Will Finish: 11-5
Can this team really go 6-1 the remainder of the year? We’ll see. I’m going out on a limb and saying they are going to win this wide open conference. They are going to get their chance to play Denver at home and what will be a huge game at Kansas City. I like the Chargers in both of those contests. If the Bolts win that game in KC, they will have the sweep against the Chiefs and better division record than Denver. Those could come in handy come tie-breaking time.

Denver Broncos
Currently: 6-2
Will Finish: 10-6
The Broncos still have road games against Oakland, Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and San Diego. They are going to have a tough time winning more than two of those contests. Plus, how often have we seen Jake Plummer and Denver start out the season on a hot streak, and then tank towards the end of the year. Only in those seasons, 10-6 was good enough for a wild card spot. Not this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Currently: 5-3
Will Finish: 10-6
Like Denver, Kansas City will finish 10-6 and be on the outside looking in come January. Every team in this division has a killer schedule, and the Chiefs are no different. Plus, the rumor now is that Priest Holmes may be out for the year. Larry Johnson is good, but can he carry the load when it matters in December?

Oakland Raiders
Currently: 3-5
Will Finish: 7-9
They are too far back to make a run. They are a good team in a great division. Their schedule does give them an opportunity to make a run at a 6-2 second half record. But Norv will find a way to screw up at least two of those games.

Playoffs:
First Round
Cincinnati at New England
Jacksonville at San Diego

Second Round
New England at Indianapolis
San Diego at Pittsburgh

AFC Championship
San Diego at Indianapolis

Super Bowl XL
Indianapolis beats Carolina