NFL Week 9: Simms and Batch and Frerotte...Oh My!

It’s Thursday. That means it is time to pick some more winners. I did fairly well last week, as I went a solid 9-4. Unfortunately, I went 6-7 with/against the spread. So I’m not a gambler. Overall, on the season I am:
Straight up: 72-43 (63%)
Spread: 61-53-1
So as I proved last week, you shouldn’t base any wagering on these picks alone.

San Diego Chargers (4-4)(-6.5) vs. New York Jets (2-5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Without Marty, the Chargers are would be sitting at 6-2…at least. This team is way to good to be 4-4 and have a worse record than the Chicago Bears. But looking at the Chargers’ schedule, and their penchant for blowing leads and games, they are probably facing no better than a 9-7 season. That’s not going to get it done in the AFC, especially not in the West. This is must win and should win for the Bolts, even if it is in the Meadowlands. J! E! T! S! LOSE-LOSE-LOSE.
Pick: Chargers

Detroit Lions (3-4)(-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H Metrodome
Let me get this straight. The Lions are favored. On the road. With Joey Harrington as their quarterback because of Jeff Garcia’s injury. Alright then. In that case, what’s not to like?
Pick: Vikings

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Wow, another match-up that I’m sure dozens of fans are looking forward to. The Browns lost to the hapless Texans last week, and the Titans lost to the pathetic Cardinals. I guess the Browns loss was worse. Let’s see if Tennessee can rebound. Even if they do, it won’t make much of a difference. Both teams are headed to a Top 10 pick next April.
Pick: Titans

Oakland Raiders (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
This game may actually be entertaining. There is certain to be a lot of offense. Trent Green played like a man possessed in the second half against San Diego. KC still lost, but considering that Green had less than 100 yards passing at halftime and finished with 347 yards and 2 touchdowns, impressive nonetheless. I think KC takes it (I’d much rather pick Green than Kerry Collins), but look for the Raiders to make a charge in the second half of the season.
Pick: Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)(-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
What an impressive performance by the Ravens on Monday. They went into Pittsburgh, hung tough with the Steelers for all 60 minutes, without their two defensive “stars”, and lost only by a point. They did much better than I, or anyone else, would have thought looking at the match-up on paper. I hope the Ravens fans are happy about that effort, because it will be the high point of a 5-11 season. My boy Carson gets it done big time.
Pick: Bengals

Carolina Panthers (5-2)(-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I’m sorry Tampa, this is where you get off and leave the playoffs for the teams with real quarterbacks.
Pick: Panthers

Houston Texans (1-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Jacksonville had a chance to make a statement last week with a road win over the depleted Rams. They failed. So Jacksonville continues to be one of those fringe teams, like Kansas City, that no one can figure out. They are good, but are they playoff good?
The Texans finally got off the schnide last week. Good to see. David Carr deserves better than Houston right now. But, the Texans are still bad. But are they first pick in the NFL draft bad?
Pick: Jaguars (Don’t ask why, but Texans cover)

Atlanta Falcons (5-2)(-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
This Dolphins team continues to really intrigue me. Obviously there is the whole Ricky Williams situation. Ronnie Brown looks better than I though he would be. Their defense is still one of the leagues best. But what really interests me, is how a team with Gus Frerotte as the starter could actually be a win away from .500 this late in the season. This has got to be mistake. The Falcons should fix it.
Pick: Falcons

Chicago Bears (4-3)(-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-6)
4:05 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA
So it looks as if the Bears are going to be the best team in a horrendous division. I guess that’s better than the fraud Lions, the troublesome Vikings and the detestable Packers. Since I probably won’t pick the Saints again this year, I can talk about something that bothers me a bit. I can’t stand how the NFL keeps track of tackles.
Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher is credited with 61 tackles this year through seven games. That's somewhat impressive. Except that Urlacher gets credit for any tackle that is made in his vicinity. And seeing as Urlacher has great speed, and plays middle linebacker, the chances are that he will be in the middle of most plays. But he doesn’t necessarily make the tackle himself or help make the tackle. For example, last week Urlacher was credited with 11 tackles (9 solo). Watching the replay of the game on the NFL Network, I was only able to count 6 solo tackles, and maybe three assists. Curious, I went back and watched the Bears-Skins game from week one. Urlacher was credited for 9 tackles (8 solo). I counted only 4 tackles that I would consider solo, and maybe two or three that I would give credit for an assist.
What is happening is this. When Urlacher, or any big “star” in the NFL, helps make an assisted tackle, the big star gets a solo tackle and the rest of his buddies are credited with nothing. When an assisted tackle is credited to one of these star players, it usually consists of them jumping on the pile, or even being near the pile at the end of the play. If a pro bowl defensive player has been credited with assisted tackles, you can pretty much assume that most of the time, they had nothing to do with the play. I call this the “Ray Lewis Tackle”, because Double Homicide is a master at getting credit for doing nothing more than jumping onto piles (unless the NFL is keeping track of most consecutive games doing an annoying dance…cause I’m sure Ray-Ray would lead that category).
In that game between the Bears and the Lions, Charles Tillman was given props for seven tackles (6 solo). But I marked Tillman down for 10 tackles (7 solo). Two of the assisted tackles I gave him, but weren't given to him by the NFL, were made along with Urlacher. What the statistician did is give Urlacher solo credit for those two tackles. Tillman, despite making a good play, got squat. The NFL knows Urlacher is popular, and they have got to inflate his stats if they get the chance so he continues to be in the limelight. A few tackles credited to the wrong player in one game means nothing. And since it’s a tough category to keep track of, unlike touchdowns or receptions, the NFL can get away with adding a couple of tackles here, and taking away a couple of tackles there. But add it up over the course of the season, and it becomes a bigger deal. You’re talking roughly 35-40 tackles extra for each big name player. So if Tillman finishes this season with 90 or so tackles, and doesn’t get into the Pro Bowl, or doesn’t get more money on a contract because he didn’t reach that nice, round 100 tackle plateau, he should probably hit up Urlacher for some cash.
Now, where was I? Oh yes…
Pick: Bears

New York Giants (5-2)(-11) vs. San Francisco Giants (2-5)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
You mean the Giants don’t get to play their 11th home game of the season? Oh, it’s against the 9ers. So I guess the NFL figured along with giving the Giants extra home games, it would schedule a couple of college teams for the Giants to play along the way. You know, anything to keep that New York market happy. This one will hurt the G-men in the BCS, but it will keep them atop of the NFC East…for now.
Pick: Giants

Seattle Seahawks (5-2)(-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-5)
4:15 p.m. Sun Devil Stadium
The return of the Seahawks after their bye week means only one thing for me: some major fantasy points for my team because Shaun Alexander is back! I really missed you last week Shaun.
Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-6)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
The Packers are the worst team in the NFL. Worse than the Texans. Worse than the 49ers. Obviously worse than the Steelers. But Ben Roethlisberger is going to miss the game. And instead of Tommy Maddox of the bench, it will be Charlie Batch at quarterback. Wow, Charlie Batch, Gus Frerotte and Brad Johnson will all be starting this week. What is this, 1997?
I just have a feeling that this is going to be a “Brett Farve game”. You know, one of those games that Farve pulls out of his ass a couple of times a year when he beats a team he has no business beating. I’m going to pick the Steelers, but only because if I don’t and the Steelers win, I’ll look like an idiot. I’m playing it safe on this one.
Pick: Steelers

Come back tomorrow, and I’ll talk about the Colts and Patriots and about the Eagles and Skins.