NFL Week 15: Sorry New Jersey, The Truth Hurts

It’s Thursday, it’s pick time. Looks like I had another solid, but not outstanding week. I went 10-5 overall and 9-6 against the spread. This week is brutal. There are about six or seven matchups that could go either way. It’s a tough job, but someone’s got to dominate. On the season, my records are:
Overall: 137-64 (68%)
Spread: 118-78-5
You could try and base wagers on other people’s picks, but considering my exceptional record, you may want to use these picks to bet. I wouldn’t recommend it though.

SATURDAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) vs. New England Patriots (8-5)(-4.5)
1:30 p.m. Gillette Stadium
For only the second time in NFL history, a regular season game features the last four Super Bowl winners (In case you forgot, Tampa won Super Bowl XXXVII. That’s ok. No one remembers that game). In some ways, the Patriots still resemble those past teams. Tom Brady’s still the quarterback. Bill Belichick is still the coach. New England still plays the ultimate team game. The rest of the AFC East is still awful. But in other ways, the Patriots look nothing like their so-called “dynasty” teams. How many of those teams would have lost 41-17 at home? Meanwhile, the Bucs continue to trick people into thinking that they can actually win a playoff game. I’ll admit it, the win last week over Carolina was impressive. But I watched most of that game and found nothing remarkable about Tampa, despite the fact that they won. Their offense is sluggish. Their defense is good, but it isn’t the best in the league, or even best in the conference (Chicago). So why are we taking this team seriously?
Pick: Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at New York Giants (9-4)(-3)
5:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
And this, my friends, is where the Giants’ season turns southward. First of all, it is their 21st and final home game of the season. Which means they are going to have to clinch a playoff spot…*cue suspenseful music*…ON THE ROAD. Secondly, they simply aren’t a very good team. For every blue clad New Jersey resident who wants to point to their victories over the Redskins and Cowboys as reasons 1 and 2 as to why this team is not only good, but also a Super Bowl contender, I offer the rebuttal. Their loss to Minnesota is the prosecution’s exhibit A. The embarrassment last week to Philadelphia, a team that is almost desperate enough to get Ron Jaworski back in uniform, is exhibit B. Or how about their fiasco in Seattle as exhibit C? Don’t forget exhibit D; the blowout that they were on the wrong end of back in San Diego. Like Tampa Bay, this is a team that reeks of disappointment (not to me, but to their putrid fan base). Plus, I like Dick Vermeil, I like Larry Johnson and I like Derrick Johnson (he plays like another Derrick that used to wear a Chiefs uniform). Kansas City was one bad play away from beating the Cowboys last week, in Dallas. I think Dallas is a better team than the Giants, and the Chiefs are desperate for a win. Show me the upset!
Pick: Chiefs

Denver Broncos (10-3)(-8.5) at Buffalo Bills (4-9)
8:30 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I don’t blame Eric Moulds for a minute. I would walk out on this Buffalo team as well. The Bills are going to very bad for a very long time.
Pick: Broncos

SUNDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)(-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Let me start off by saying that I have always liked Brad Johnson. But look at the teams he as beat since he took over the starting role for the injured Daunte Culpepper: Detroit (defense ranked 19th), the Giants (defense ranked 20th), Green Bay (3-10), Cleveland (defense ranked 16th), Detroit again and St. Louis (defense ranked 31st). Do any of these teams scare anyone (don’t say the Giants, we just went over them)? Now Brad is going to have to face a defense that only gives up 88 yards a game on the ground. Which means it’s going to be up to Johnson’s right arm to beat the Steelers. Sorry Brad.
Pick: Steelers

San Diego Chargers (8-5) at Indianapolis Colts (13-0)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
Wow. These are the games you thank God for football. One team is playing for history. They are trying to be the only team to ever go undefeated in a 16 game season. They have one of the most entertaining offenses the game as ever seen, and they have a defense with tons of young talent that gets after the opposition quarterback. They have a coach that is hard not to root for, and a team that is hard not to like. And the other team has Marty Schottenheimer. Haha.
Seriously, the Chargers are also a great team. But some mystifying losses have put them in a different position than the Colts. San Diego needs this game to have any hope of making the playoffs. So you have Manning-James-Harrison-Wayne on one side going for perfection, and Brees-Tomlinson-Gates on the other side fighting for their playoff lives. Grab a cold one, find your favorite chair, sit back and enjoy.
Pick: Colts

Arizona Cardinals (4-9)(-2) at Houston Texans (1-12)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Then there are games like this that make you wonder why you watch football at all.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Are the 49ers any better off with Mike Nolan this year than they were with Dennis Erickson last year? They’re still dreadful. They’re still in the running for the number one pick. Why do we see articles about Mike Nolan turning this team around? Where is this turn around?
Pick: Jaguars

Seattle Seahawks (11-2)(-7.5) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)
1:00 p.m. Adelphia Coliseum
Boy, this one has “trap game” written all over it. The Seahawks have to travel through two time zones to play this game in the early afternoon. For a reminder on how bad they look during early 1 pm kickoffs, go back to their October 2nd game with the Redskins. If that game is later in the day, or in Seattle, there is no way Washington wins. Plus, the Seahawks just happen to have a big game next week with some team from Indianapolis. I hear they have a pretty good squad this year. I won’t pick it, but don’t be surprised if the Titans squeak out a win.
Pick: Seahawks, Titans cover

New York Jets (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Let me talk about Gus Frerotte again, and I swear this will be the last time (or at least until next week). Despite head-bangin’ Gus, the Dolphins offense is still ranked a respectable 15th. What is wrong with the NFL this season?
Pick: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers (9-4)(-9) at New Orleans Saints (3-10)
1:00 p.m. Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La
Going back to that Carolina-Tampa game last week, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a 9-4 team play that badly in such a big game before. The Panthers looked terrible. Here were their first five drives of the game: 3 plays and 8 yards, 6 plays and 2 yards, 5 plays and 5 yards, 5 plays and 21 yards and 8 plays and 35 yards. And it seemed to be an accident if the Panthers gained more than a few yards on any given play. On one carry, DeShaun Foster actually had a hole to run through and was so surprised, that he quickly tripped over an empty field to tackle himself. I still like this team in the playoffs, but they got to win here. They’re making me look bad.
Pick: Panthers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
If Randall Cunningham comes back to play QB for the Eagles, and Flipper Anderson comes back to play WR for the Rams, then maybe I’ll watch. Actually…no, I wouldn’t even watch then.
Pick: Rams

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3)(-7.5) at Detroit Lions (4-9)
4:05 p.m. Ford Field
Matt Millen should look at Cincinnati and take notes on how to turn around a franchise. Well, at least take notes on the last three seasons. Don’t pay any attention to 1991-2002. Pretend that didn’t happen.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (4-9) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)(-3)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
Charlie Frye looked incredible last week against Cincy. If he can play like that consistently, and can get decent blocking, the Browns may not be that far off from respectability again.
Pick: Raiders

Atlanta Falcons (8-5) at Chicago Bears (9-4)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Soldier Field
A game featuring two teams that have solid records despite my belief that both of them would be better off with their backup quarterbacks in the game. As I said Monday, we saw the real Bears team last week against Pittsburgh. If they make the playoffs, look for that kind of performance from Chicago. Fortunately for Chicago, Atlanta’s defense can’t compare to the Steelers.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY
Green Bay Packers (3-10) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)(-3.5)
9:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
This game is on a Monday night? Will John Madden even bother to show up? Will anyone watch? Weren’t these teams supposed to be Super Bowl contenders? So…many…sarcastic things…to say…about…crappy teams…and their…obnoxious fans…
Pick: Packers

By Saturday, I should have my Redskins preview up. Iit's not a big game or anything. They're just playing Dallas. You know, typical game...