The Predictor's Pro Bowl Selections

The Pro Bowl teams are announced tomorrow. That means it is time to award players like Tom Brady with trips to Hawaii that they don't deserve. My team is going to be better than any team that is revealed tomorrow. The Pro Bowl selections are usually based more reputation and popularity than anything else. I based my picks more on statistics. I did use reputation a bit when it came to deciding positions, like offensive linemen, or to break ties between two otherwise equal candidates. I also tried to include a player from each team, but as you’ll see, that didn’t work out that well (fortunately, the NFL doesn’t have the silly MLB rule that each team must be represented). So to repeat, this is not a prediction of what the Pro Bowl teams will be. It is merely a suggestion as to what they should be.

Each team is allowed 43 players. Two of the players are coach’s choice (One special team player and one defensive player from any position. I also believe the coach can add a long snapper and a couple of other positions if he likes…the roster rules are fluid from one year to another). I picked the other 41 guys for each squad. The typical Pro Bowl break down is: 3 quarterbacks, 3 running backs, 1 fullback, 4 wide receivers, 3 offensive tackles, 3 guards, 2 centers, 2 tight ends, 3 defensive ends, 3 defensive tackles, 3 outside linebackers, 2 inside linebackers, 3 cornerbacks, 3 safeties, 1 kicker, 1 punter and 1 kick/punt returner. My starter will be the first name(s) and the backups will below him(them).
So here you go:

AFC
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (IND)
Carson Palmer (CIN), Jake Plummer (DEN)
A quarterback’s main responsibility is to win. The stats are nice, and all three of these quarterbacks have numbers. But the three best records in the AFC belong to these three quarterbacks. Tom Brady need not apply.

Running Back: LaDainian Tomlinson (SD)
Edgerrin James (IND), Larry Johnson (KC)
The first two names are obvious choices. But Larry Johnson over Rudi Johnson? What gives there? Despite taking few snaps than Rudi, Larry Johnson still has more rushing yards. He is a future star in the NFL, and without him, the Chiefs would be below .500.

Fullback: Patrick Pass (NE)
A position that has virtually disappeared in the NFL is still used somewhat by Bill Belichick. Pass can catch and block, and that’s all I look for in a fullback

Wide Receivers: Chad Johnson (CIN), Marvin Harrison (IND)
Chris Chambers (MIA), Reggie Wayne (IND)
I regret not putting Rod Smith in, but it is hard to argue with the numbers all four of these guys have put up. Most surprising is Chris Chambers, since he has had Gus Frerotte (who was left off my Pro Bowl team for some reason) throwing to him all season.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates (SD)
Tony Gonzalez (KC)
The only other tight end to consider would be Dallas Clark. This was definitely one of the easiest groups to select.

Offensive Tackles: Willie Anderson (CIN), Tarik Glenn (IND)
Matt Lepsis (DEN)
The reason that Manning and Palmer are having such great seasons is because of Anderson and Glenn. Lepsis gets the nod over Willie Roaf because Roaf missed five games this season due to injury.

Offensive Guards: Will Shields (KC), Alan Faneca (PIT)
Mike Goff (SD)
Shields and Faneca have been two of the best guards in the NFL for a long time now. They had great seasons once again in 2005.

Centers: Jeff Saturday (IND)
Tom Nalen (DEN)
Saturday is another key cog in the Colts offensive line. Nalen is a solid veteran who helps that Denver running game out.

Defensive Ends: Dwight Freeney (IND), Derrick Burgess (OAK)
Jared Allen (KC)
This was the most loaded position in the entire AFC. There were a lot of tough cuts here. Burgess leads the league in sacks. Freeney is just a beast. Allen forced seven fumbles this season along with 10 sacks. Robert Mathis, Jason Taylor, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Aaron Schobel could start in any other year.

Defensive Tackles: Orpheus Roye (CLE), John Henderson (JAX)
Montae Reagor (IND)
Roye leads all tackles in tackles. Henderson is the main man in the middle of the tough Jacksonville D. Reagor, like Freeney, draws a lot of double teams which free up Mathis.

Inside Linebackers: Jonathan Vilma (NYJ)
Mike Peterson (JAX)
Vilma leads the league in tackles. Peterson is one of the most underrated players in the league. He is as good as some safeties are in pass coverage, and he is ridiculous in run defense as well.

Outside Linebackers: Zach Thomas (MIA), Keith Bulluck (TEN)
Shawne Merriman (SD)
I know, Thomas is a middle linebacker. But he has to be on this team somewhere. The overall talent at outside linebacker is substantially less than at middle. Merriman makes some fantastic plays, but takes too many plays off. That’s why he is on the bench and not starting.

Cornerbacks: Deltha O’Neal (CIN), Champ Bailey (DEN)
Nate Clements (BUF)
O’Neal leads the league with picks (10) and in deflections (20). Bailey is still as good as ever. Clements would probably start for the NFC.

Safeties: Troy Polamalu (PIT), Bob Sanders (IND)
Erik Coleman (NYJ)
Polamalu is the most versatile safety in the league. Sanders is great as the last line of defense for Indy. Coleman is a solid player that no one really talks about, but puts up quality numbers.

Kicker: Matt Stover (BAL)
Has made 10 field goals from over 40 yards out.

Punter: Josh Miller (NE)
Not only great at pinning ball inside 20, but inside the 10 as well (nine times)

K/P Returner: Dante Hall (KC)
Who else?

Others for consideration: Drew Brees, Rudi Johnson, Hines Ward, Rod Smith, Dallas Clark, Jason Taylor, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Robert Mathis, Aaron Schobel, Donnie Edwards, London Fletcher, Ike Taylor, Dunta Robinson, Chris Hope, Sammy Knight

Team breakdown: Indianapolis (9 players), Kansas City (5), Cincinnati (4), Denver (4), San Diego (4), Jacksonville (2), Miami (2), New England (2), N.Y. Jets (2), Pittsburgh (2), Baltimore (1), Buffalo (1), Cleveland (1), Oakland (1), Tennessee (1), Houston (0)

NFC
Quarterbacks: Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
Mark Brunell (WAS), Eli Manning (NYG)
Unlike the AFC, there isn’t much to choose from here. The only snub would be Drew Bledsoe, who has tanked the last few weeks. Hasselbeck clearly has the best numbers and record in the NFC.

Running Backs: Shaun Alexander (SEA)
Tiki Barber (NYG), Clinton Portis (WAS)
Alexander is the obvious starter. Barber is a close second. Portis got in over Warrick Dunn because Portis finds the endzone more often and is more important to the Redskins offense than Dunn is to the Falcons.

Fullback: Chris Cooley (WAS)
Technically, he is a tight end or H-back. But the NFL lists him as a fullback. So he is the easy choice here. Want proof? Watch last week’s game.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith (CAR), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Santana Moss (WAS), Anquan Boldin (ARI)
Smith and Fitzgerald are a clear-cut one and two. Boldin and Moss are a clear-cut three and four. No NFC receiver other than Torry Holt is even worth mentioning.

Tight Ends: Jeremy Shockey (NYG)
Jason Witten (DAL)
Shockey means a lot to the Giants and the development of Manning. Witten has become Bledsoe’s security blanket this year. He also gets the ball around the goal line. If Mike Vick threw to Alge Crumpler more, he would be here instead of Witten.

Offensive Tackles: Walter Jones (SEA), Jon Jansen (WAS)
Orlando Pace (STL)
Jones is the NFL’s best tackle. Period. Jansen’s worth can be proven by comparing the Washington offense last year (when he was hurt all season) to this year. Pace is good too, but not better than Jones or Jansen.

Offensive Guards: Matt Wahle (CAR), Steve Hutchinson (SEA)
Shawn Andrews (PHI)
Hutchinson and Jones make it possible for Alexander to put up the numbers he has. Wahle has been a consistent veteran for a long time. Andrews is going to be excellent for years to come.

Centers: Olin Kreutz (CHI)
Mike Flanagen (GB)
Kreutz is the run away choice for another season. Flanagen is really just an excuse to get a Packer on the team.

Defensive Ends: Michael Strahan (NYG), Adewale Ogunleye (CHI)
Osi Umenyiora (NYG)
Strahan and Ogunleye on opposite sides of the line are going to be very scary for the AFC quarterback. Umenyiora had a great season, but I have a feeling he may be a bit of a fluke.

Defensive Tackles: Pat Williams (MIN), Rod Coleman (ATL)
Rocky Bernard (SEA)
This was the weakest of all positions in the NFC. I went by numbers alone here. Williams and Coleman have been good tackles for awhile now. Bernard is a virtual unknown, but has 45 tackles (which is good for NFC DT’s) and 8.5 sacks.

Inside Linebackers: Brian Urlacher (CHI)
Lofa Tatupu (SEA)
Again, another position with an obvious choice for the starter. Tatupu narrowly beat out Shelton Quarles for Urlacher’s back-up.

Outside Linebackers: Derrick Brooks (TB), Marcus Washington (WAS)
Lance Briggs (CHI)
All three of these players are pretty much equal in importance to their teams. I figured my defense had to have a Tampa Bay starter somewhere, and Washington is the steady force for Washington. Briggs was a close third.

Cornerbacks: Ronde Barber (TB), DeAngelo Hall (ATL)
Chris Gamble (CAR)
Barber is everywhere on defense. He blitzes well. He tackles well. He comes up on run support well. He is always in position to pick off passes. Hall is almost at Barber’s level. Gamble is young, but is rarely thrown at by opposing teams.

Safeties: Mike Brown (CHI), Adrian Wilson (ARI)
Michael Boulware (SEA)
Sean Taylor is missing. He is the best safety in the NFC, but simply didn’t have a great year statistically. Brown is a close second. Other than Taylor, no safety is feared more over the middle than Brown. Wilson is anonymous in Arizona, but would be a star on any other team. Boulware has the numbers this season for Seattle.

Kicker: Neil Rackers (ARI)
There are way too many Cardinals on this team.

Punter: Mitch Berger (NOR)
About the only thing the Saints do right is punt.

K/P Returner: Koren Robinson (MIN)
Not much to choose from in the NFC. Robinson really only returns kicks, but is very dangerous.

Others to consider: Drew Bledsoe, Warrick Dunn, Torry Holt, Joey Galloway, Alge Crumpler, Randy Thomas, Aaron Kampman, Will Smith, Shaun Rogers, Cornelius Griffin, Derrick Brooks, Demorrio Williams, Antoine Winfield, Charles Tillman, Michael Lewis, Sean Taylor

Team breakdown: Seattle (7), Washington (6), Chicago (5), N.Y. Giants (5), Arizona (4), Carolina (3), Atlanta (2), Minnesota (2), Tampa Bay (2), Dallas (1), Green Bay (1), New Orleans (1), Philadelphia (1), St. Louis (1), Detroit (0), San Francisco (0)