Maryland Basketball: Hoo Is Going To Step Up?

Virginia Cavaliers (11-8, 5-4 ACC) at
Maryland Terrapins (14-7, 4-4 ACC)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

What to make of the Virginia Cavaliers? This curious little team was supposed to reside in the cellar of the ACC this season, but they've already posted five conference wins. Looking at their schedule, they have at least three or four winnable games left in conference. However, due to their strange losses this season to Fordham (at home) and Western Kentucky, the Cavs will probably need nine ACC victories to even get a second look from the NCAA selection committee.

For years the Wahoos were one of the more predictable teams in the ACC. They would lose on the road. Always. Almost no exceptions. At the same time, UVA would play very well, nearly downright unbeatable, at home. They would usually go 1-7 on the road in conference and grab about 6 wins or so at home. So with a .500 conference record and a weak pre-conference schedule, the Hoos would always be on the outside looking in come March.

This March figures to be no different. But the way the Cavs have obtained their 11-8 record is an unusual way...at least for them. Along with the loss to Fordham, the Cavs also dropped a home game to Florida State and nearly lost to UNC, Clemson and New Clemson (Wake Forest) this season at University Hall. But away for Charlottesville, the Cavs have been competitive with some regularity under new coach Dave Leito. UVA has already picked up an ACC road win in Blacksburg. They've also won at Richmond against a decent Spiders team. Last week, the Cavs gave NC State a major scare in Raleigh before losing by two. They've also been close to wins at Gonzaga and at Georgia Tech. This appears to be a Cavs team that finally has some direction, other than a downward sprial, once the conference season starts.

A lot of this can be attributed to Leito. Pete Gillen, after years of deserving his pink slip, was finally let go in the off-season. Leito, the former coach at Depaul, took over a team that had a couple of ACC-caliber players and a whole bunch of others that most D-1 coaches wouldn't touch. Leito has made this team dangerous in conference in less than a season with players that Gillen couldn't coach past the play-in game at the ACC Tournament (Ok, quick history lesson. Back before the ACC added 17 teams, there used to only be nine universities in the conference. The play-in game featured the two worst teams playing for the right to face the conference's best team the next day with little rest. To be in the play-in game was an embarassing feat. Most of the play-in games since 1995 have featured a combination of FSU, UVA and Clemson. I know I lost most readers during this break-in...sorry. No more history lessons today.). Even if his team isn't competitive, Leito at least has the common sense not to waste all his timeouts before halftime, which was a Gillen specialty. Really, it was the only thing he did well. At the moment, Leito should have everyone's vote for ACC Coach of the Year.

The Cavs, who despite their past failings on the road, were the first ACC team to win at the Comcast Center. Since that win in 2003, the Hoos have been blown out of the building in two straight appearences. But remember, all conventional pre-Gillen Cavs wisdom must be thrown out the door. It is a new day at UVA, and this team will come into the Shell tonight and compete.

Maryland, at least on the perimeter, doesn't match up well at all with Virginia. Nine of the past ten opponents have exceeded their average of three-point shots made per game against the Terps. No where was the Terps lack of outside defense more evident than during their trip to Philadelphia 10 days ago. I still can't believe that Maryland gave up 91 to the Owls. You really have to try hard to be that bad. But anyway, UVA has three guys who can light it up from outside.

Adrian Joesph is shooting a modest 36% from the arc, but has an uncanny ability to create his own shot. Joesph is one of the best in the ACC when it comes to getting himself in position to shoot. J.R. Reynolds, who along with T.J. Bannister, fills the necessary quota of initial players that all D.C. area teams must have. He also shoots pretty well from outside. Reynolds went nuts in the double-overtime thriller last year between the two teams at U-Hall. And unlike most Maryland guards, Reynolds doesn't turn the ball over a whole heckuva lot. And there is Sean Singletary. Singletary was the best freshman point guard the ACC has seen in decades. This season, Singletary is even better. He is averaging 18 points and 5 assists per game for the Cavs. Even with Leito making this entire team better, without Singletary, this team wouldn't win more than 10 games all season.

The problem with UVA, and the reason that they do have eight losses, including several eyebrow raisers, is that there is little inside presence for the Cavs. Just about every team that beat the Hoos used a superior inside offensive game coupled with a decent perimeter defense to knock the win. I would think, and I would like to assume, that Gary will try and beat into his team's head that they need to go inside tonight with the ball. Hopefully Caner-Medley won't be sucking wind due to stomach flu, because there is no player on UVA that can guard him. Nik has had some of his best games against the Hoos. If he gets 20, and Mike Jones is able to hit some early threes, then the Cavs will rush and begin to hurry their outside shots.

Again, the question is who is going to stop the Cavs from hitting threes? Maryland's inability to stop the other team from hitting long shots isn't in itself killing the Terps. But if you can't score, and can't stop the other team from hitting 3 points at a time, then it doesn't take Chris McCray to figure out the reason for Maryland's three game slide. Some teams can get away with being a one-sided club. Look at Wisconsin. For a long time, the Badgers couldn't score more than 60 points a game. But their opponents would never score 55. But Maryland is a balanced team at the moment. The problem is they are bad on both sides of the ball. Still, Maryland should, and has to, win this game. A loss here, and the Terps' March experience will be similar to the one the Cavs are going to have.

Maryland 77
Virginia 70

Elsewhere in the ACC...

After a sluggish 20-12 start in conference, I have finally gotten a read on the ACC and am well on my way to blowing all other predictors (really, can there be that many other than me) out of the water. I was 8-2 last week, including a 6-0 Super Bowl weekend. That bumps the ol' record up to 28-14. I'm hotter than a Keira Knightly/Scarlett Johansson photo shoot. Here come another set of winners.

Tuesday
Duke at North Carolina
Finally. It is about damn time that the conference did something about the pro-Duke officiating. After Duke was handed two gift wins by the refs last week, the ACC suspended the officials that screwed up the Duke-FSU game. The foul shots tell the story. Duke outshot their opponents from the line almost at a 4:1 clip. And the favorite excuse from the ESPN and Duke talking head media outlets is that "they attack the basket more than other teams." No they don't. Have you ever watched a Duke game? All they do is shoot. Once in awhile they throw a bone to Sheldon Williams inside, but other than that, they attack the hoop less than most teams. They simply get calls. This suspension is just one of the many that should have happened in the past 15 years. More on Blow Devils and the refs later this weekend. The fallout of all this should mean that Duke gets no calls tonight. Without the refs, the Dookies must actually play a game 5 vs. 5. Ratface will be beside himself tonight looking for someone to take his roll of hundreds.
Pick: North Carolina 75, Duke 69

Wednesday
NC State at Miami
This one is a toss up. The Pack seem to be playing better on the road than they are at home this season. Miami continues to impress, and appears to be on the verge of getting and NCAA bid. State still seems to be in this mini-funk of theirs, so I'll go with The U at home.
Pick: Miami 77, NC State 66

Boston College at Wake Forest
Poor Skip Prosser. He has gone from genious to dope in less than two seasons flat. Boston College will make this one more interesting than they should
Pick: Boston College 82, Wake Forest 75

Virginia Tech at Clemson
If the Tigers want to be taken seriously, they need a win here. Hey, I'm rooting for Clemson to finally get their act together and start resembling an ACC basketball team after years of abysmal play.
Pick: Clemson 68, Virginia Tech 59

Thursday
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Yuck. I'll regret this pick.
Pick: Florida State 75, Georgia Tech 63