The Predictor Top 25: 2/13/06

Unlike last week, I’ll actually name a number two team. Although I don’t see the point because Connecticut is going to run away with the title this season. I actually expect UConn to lose at least once this week at either Villanova or West Virginia. If they only lose once, I’ll probably keep them in the top spot anyway. We’ll see.

The top half of this poll is becoming very frustrating for me to put together. Record wise, these teams deserve to be in the Top 10. But, I like to do my rankings with an emphasis on what I think is going to happen in March rather than what happened last week. Therefore, teams like Duke, Villanova, GW, Florida, Pittsburgh and Tennessee may technically have the resume of a top team, but in March, I would be surprised if more than one of those aforementioned programs makes the Final Four. I have much more faith in teams like Illinois, UCLA, Oklahoma, Boston College and Iowa to do damage next month. But I simply can’t justify putting them in the top half of the rankings with their records at the moment. Just for the record, I think a heckava lot more of most of the teams around the rankings from 11-20 than I do of the teams from 2-10.

1. Connecticut (22-1), LW-1: If this team doesn’t win it all, it would be one of the biggest shockers in recent tournament play.
2. Duke (23-1), LW-3: Here they are and here they’ll stay. Unless UConn completely goes down the tubes.
3. Texas (21-3), LW-4: Horns should get two more blowout wins to keep them in this slot next week.
4. Memphis (22-2), LW-5: With their schedule, I hate to keep putting them this high. But have you seen the other teams that are gracing the Top 10 this week?
5. Gonzaga (20-3), LW-7: Their win, coupled with my belief that Villanova is a March flameout waiting to happen, finally allows the Zags to move into my Top 5.
6. Villanova (19-2), LW-6: Hoping that UConn takes them down tonight so I can take them down next week. Get this Philadelphia junk off the top of my rankings.
7. Ohio State (18-3), LW-13: I’ve been getting a lot of crap over my ranking of OSU. Prove me wrong you doubters. They’ve lost three games this season, one at home in double OT to Michigan State, one at Indiana by 2 points and one at Iowa by 5 points. Why shouldn’t they be ahead of Florida and GW?
8. George Washington (20-1), LW-9: Survived a game with St. Joe’s that shouldn’t have been close. Because of the weakness of the A-10, my new rule is GW can climb no higher than sixth in future polls.
9. Tennessee (18-3), LW-16: I really don’t want to put the Vols here. But they go above Florida because they’ve already beaten the Gators this season.
10. Florida (21-3), LW-8: I said I’d move Gators up if they beat LSU last week. And while they did manage to beat the Tigers, they also managed to screw up an easy game against South Carolina. They move down instead.
11. Illinois (20-4), LW-10: I won’t penalize Illini for their road loss to Ohio State.
12. West Virginia (18-5), LW-11: Tough loss at Pitt was made up for by good win at Georgetown.
13. UCLA (20-5), LW-12: Like Illinois, I won’t penalize the Bruins for a three-point loss in Seattle. Their 50-30 win over Wazzou was impressive.
14. Pittsburgh (19-3), LW-20: Their win at home over West Virginia gives them a grand total of one quality victory. If you really think that Pitt is better than WVU on a neutral court, I want you to stop coming to this site. Just kidding…please don’t leave.
15. Boston College (19-5), LW-15: The Eagles have to start beating weaker competition by more than five or six points.
16. Oklahoma (16-5), LW-19: The Sooners have an interesting game coming up this week at Boulder.
17. Georgetown (17-5), LW-14: I’m a bit worried about the way that G’town looked almost helpless against WVU at home. Maybe I’ve been overranking them? Or maybe it’s just one game.
18. Iowa (19-6), LW-21: Big game this week against the Spartans. Hopefully the Hawkeyes will prove me right for ranking them ahead of MSU.
19. Washington (18-5), LW-25: After a couple of bad losses, Lorenzo Romar righted the ship this week with two solid wins against the Los Angeles schools.
20. Kansas (17-6), LW-NR: Could it be? A Jawhawk sighting? There is life this season in Lawrence after all.
21. Michigan State (18-6), LW-19: Another head scratching loss, this time against pitiful Minnesota.
22. North Carolina (15-6), LW-23: After a tough loss to the Dookies, the Heels recovered nicely to grind out a win at Miami
23. NC State (19-5), LW-17: Just when it looks like the Pack are turning the corner, Herb Sendek has one of his patented bad losses to awful Georgia Tech.
24. California (15-6), LW-NR: Winners of five straight, Cal could make up some ground very quickly in the open Pac-10, and then do damage with Leon Poe in March.
25. George Mason (19-5), LW-NR: Yes, you’re reading it right. The Patriots are in the Top 25. They play in one of this year’s toughest mid-major conferences and should be in line for a NCAA birth even if they lose in the CAA tournament.

Next five in: Colorado, Northern Iowa, LSU, Florida State (hey, they’re 15-6), UTEP