The Predictor Top 25 and Tournament Bids: 2/27/06

It’s almost March. The Top 25, at least close to the top, stays basically the same. All those who said I was crazy for having Florida ranked 15th, where are you now? In fact I was crazy…for having them so high. I’ll remedy that situation this week.

1. Connecticut (25-2), LW-1: Huskies pick up another quality win and continue to remain in the top spot here.
2. Duke (27-1), LW-2: Just Jumpers has had a series of bad games lately. Here comes another March swoon for Backne, right on cue.
3. Memphis (26-2), LW-4: The Tigers actually have two tough games this week, at UAB and at home against Houston.
4. Texas (24-4), LW-6: Their 24-point win over Kansas could have been by even more.
5. Villanova (22-3), LW-3: Villanova is a “gimmick” team. Gimmick teams don’t win in crunch time.
6. Gonzaga (24-3), LW-5: The Fightin’ Mustaches roll on in the horrible WCC.
7. Ohio State (21-4), LW-7: I’ve had OSU in this spot for three weeks. It seems the media and the coaches finally caught on to my wisdom.
8. George Washington (24-1), LW-8: Conveniently, the Colonials find themselves in the “GW Spot” for another week.
9. Illinois (23-5), LW-9: Despite loss at Michigan, I’ll give the Illini another week in the Top 10 before moving them down.
10. Tennessee (21-4), LW-12: Two things get the Vols this high. One, they won on the road in Gainesville. Two, there isn’t a better team to put here.
11. North Carolina (21-6), LW-14: This team keeps looking better and better. I’m not focusing on the beating they put on Maryland, but more on the beating they put on the Wolfpack in Raleigh.
12. Washington (22-5), LW-13: Looked really good in a big game last night. If anyone missed it (and I’m guessing most of you did), the Huskies simply dominated a good California team
13. Pittsburgh (21-4), LW-10: Played their traditional brand of ugly basketball in a sloppy win over Providence.
14. Boston College (22-6), LW-11: Road loss to Virginia not all that surprising. BC still lacks a capable and consistent third scorer.
15. Oklahoma (19-6), LW-18: Three one-point victories in a row are not helping my confidence in my darkhorse Final Four pick.
16. UCLA (22-6), LW-21: Nothing impressive over the last seven days…the Bruins just took care of business against the Oregon schools.
17. Kansas (20-7), LW-17: Looked mighty ugly in the blowout. Just remember, it was on the road against Texas. The Jayhawks will probably win their last two and earn a 2 or 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament.
18. Florida (22-6), LW-15: There, finally. Florida is now properly ranked. I said weeks ago that this was about to fall on its face. As usual, the Gators came through.
19. LSU (20-7), LW-NR: Only behind UF because of earlier loss to the Gators. The Tigers are still the better team.
20. Iowa (20-8), LW-19: Despite loss to Illinois, the Hawkeyes continue to stay in the top third of the Big 10. They must beat Penn State and Wisconsin this week.
21. West Virginia (19-8), LW-20: The ‘Queers continue their fall. An ugly loss to Syracuse was followed by an uglier win against Louisville. This team doesn’t look like they can make it past the first weekend in the tournament.
22. Georgetown (19-7), LW-23: After a slump, the Hoyas recovered with two wins against mediocre opponents
23. Marquette (19-8), LW-NR: I see the ESPN poll includes the Badgers this week. They have the wrong team from Wisconsin in their rankings.
24. Nevada (22-5), LW-NR: Looked great from start to finish at Utah State, the only other decent team in the WAC. Nine straight wins, including the remarkable win over the Aggies, gets Nevada into the Top 25.
25. NC State (21-7), LW-17: I don’t care who the two losses came against; you lose twice in a week at home you are going to fall. NC State finds themselves behind the “other” Wolfpack.

Dropped out: Michigan State, George Mason, Northern Iowa
Next Five In: Arkansas, Michigan State, UAB, Texas A&M, California

Here are the 65 teams that would make the NCAA tournament right now. It could completely change by next week. You can call it a lazy man’s version of Bracketology. I’m not going to bother with the exact bracket seeding this week. As usual, the conference bids are separated into four groups. First you have your traditional six-power conference. Then the conferences that are better than the mid-majors, but aren’t the BCS six. Those are followed by the true mid-major conferences. Finally, the small conferences that are only going to get one bid no matter how you slice it. This week, in a departure from last week, I actually picked who I think would win those conferences. The rest of the conference leaders are in italics.

POWER
ACC (4): Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, NC State
Big East (8): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big 10 (6): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5): Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Pac 10 (4): Arizona, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee,

Notes: Florida State’s loss to Virginia was very costly. They are out. Also out is Alabama, despite their win against Florida. If you look at the Crimson Tide’s overall resume, not just the RPI and one recent game, it’s not very good. Arkansas, who beat the Tide this week, slides into their place. Kentucky stays in this week. They have two games against ranked opponents this week, and if they win just one of them and a first round SEC tourney game, they’re in easily. Seton Hall continues to remain on the outside looking in. As a result of FSU dropping out, I put Arizona in. And trust me, unless the Aggies screw it up, we should see A&M in the tournament as well. I think we'll see the Aggies net a big win over Texas this week to end all doubts.

MAJOR
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington
Conference USA (3): Memphis, UAB, UTEP
Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, San Diego State

Notes: UTEP’s loss to Memphis hurt their record, but helped their RPI. Charlotte could be considered if they make a run in the A-10 Tournament. The Stormin’ Mormons (BYU) get a bid this week because of Utah State’s recent failing in the WAC (check further below).

MID-MAJOR
Colonial Athletic (2): George Mason, UNC-Wilmington
Horizon (1): Milwaukee-Wisconsin
MAAC (1): Manhattan
Mid-American (1): Kent State
Missouri Valley (4): Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Western Athletic (1): Nevada

Notes: First of all, I must make a correction from last week. The MAAC should have been in the mid-major category. Not only does the MAAC move up, but also, Manhattan replaces Iona as the conference winner in my brackets. Kent State replaces Akron as the MAC representative this week. I continue to have my doubts about Southern Illinois’ credentials, so I leave them out. However, SIU is ahead of Northern Iowa in the Valley standings, so maybe both could be left out. Utah State’s loss to Nevada and two-point win against dreadful Boise State leaves the WAC with only one team. Southern Alabama continues to push Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt, but will have to win the conference tournament.

SMALL
America East: Albany
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: Winthrop
Big West: Pacific
Ivy: Pennsylvania
Mid-Continent: IUPUI
MEAC: Delaware State
Northeast Conference: Fairleigh Dickinson
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Bucknell
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Southern U.

Notes: Again, last week I just went with the conference leaders. This week I make a few corrections. I think Montana will win the Big Sky and Sam Houston State will win the Southland, despite both teams currently sitting in second place. Davidson should win the Southern conference even though they are currently third.