2006 AFC Preview

Each of the four AFC divisions are separated into have and have-nots. As in have and have-no talent. Each division contains two teams that are playoff caliber and two teams that should end up high in the draft lottery. Indianapolis gets to beat up on Houston and Tennessee. New England on the Jets and the Bills. The Steelers and Bengals are able to embarrass the Browns and Ravens. These better teams are guaranteed three to four wins a year before the schedule even comes out. They’re able to run up the score, bump up their stats, get into a rhythm and gain some momentum. Even if these teams hit losing skids during the season, odds are that one of the lesser teams in the division are waiting for them on the schedule next week. This is why the AFC teams are going to look better than NFC squads. None of them have to navigate through the NFC East or NFC South. Make no mistake, this year the NFC has caught back up in talent to the American Conference after years of being the ugly sister. That fact will manifest itself in the standings when AFC meets NFC. I’m looking at the NFC winning at least 60% of those ball games. The AFC still has several powerhouses, and at least one compelling division. So here are the pre-season predictions for the AFC (playoff predicitons at the bottom).

EAST

1. Miami Dolphins, 10-6
Last Season: 9-7, 2nd place

Before Sports Illustrated and ESPN jumped on the Miami bandwagon for 2006, I was the only one talking about the possibility of the Fish winning the East. Now unlike ESPN, I don’t sweat New England enough to have them overcoming the Dolphins, and unlike SI, I’m not crazy enough to pick Miami as the AFC representative in the Super Bowl. But I believe that around the midway point of last season, I said that Miami would win this division this year. I see no reason to change that at the beginning of the season as long as Daunte Culpepper’s knee holds. The defense is always one of the best, and the offense has all the weapons and an above average offensive line.
Best Player: Chris Chambers, WR. He may put up better numbers than any other receiver this season.
Key Player: Ronnie Brown, RB. This will be the first time he is a featured back in offense. Can he handle the load?
Big Game: vs. New England (12/10). To get by New England, Miami must find a way to beat them late in the season at home.

2. New England Patriots, 10-6
Last Season: 10-6, 1st place

The age of the Patriots and the stubbornness not to resign key players will catch up with New England this year. The allowed departures of Willie McGinest and Adam Vinatieri are inexcusable and head scratching. The loss of Vinatieri and replacing him with a rookie is a terrible move. This will cost the Pats at least two games this season. Along with the age and injuries on defense, there are a lot of question marks on offense. Who is the starting running back? Or better yet, who will be the starting running back by the beginning of October? Corey Dillon gets his shot to keep his job, but it’s only a matter of time before Lau rence Maroney gets his carries. And I’m not that impressed with Maroney. As good as Tom Brady may be, who is he going to throw to other than Ben Watson? Even the Eagles have a better receiving core than this. Reche Caldwell is going to be the number one guy…really? What is this, 2003? Fortunately for the Pats, despite finishing in first last year, they get a relatively easy schedule, so their record stays at 10-6.
Best Player: Tom Brady, QB. Without Brady, this is a 5-11 team at best.
Key Player: Eugene Wilson, FS. The D has lost talent due to age and departures and Wilson will be the last line of defense in a vulnerable secondary. If he struggles, New England will have trouble stopping the deep ball.
Big Game: vs. Indianapolis (11/5). To prove they’re still in the top two or three in the conference (which they aren’t), they have to beat the class of the AFC.


Only Maroney and the Patriots could have a schedule this easy after finishing in first place. Just another example of the obvious New York-Boston bias.


3. Buffalo Bills, 5-11
Last Season: 5-11, 3rd place

The Bills blundered their way through the draft and free agency. And this was a team that went 5-11 and is in need of help on both lines. The offensive line may be one of the league’s worst, and will make it hard for Willis McGahee to get anything done this season. Lee Evans is nice speed threat, but will J.P. Losman have a chance to find him? And if he does, will he be able to connect? “No” is the most likely answer for both of those questions. The defensive line is a horror story, with only one starting lineman recording more than 45 tackles last season.
Best Player: London Fletcher, MLB. Because the defensive line was so bad last season, Fletcher had to make 157 tackles. Look for similar numbers this year.
Key Player: Melvin Fowler, C. Can he anchor the offensive line and turn them into a unit that is at least average in terms of the NFL? If he can, the Bills offense could actually be good.
Big Game: vs. New York Jets (9/24). The Bills first two games are at New England and at Miami. So they’re most likely looking at 0-2 start. A loss to the pitiful Jets at home would spell doom to their season before October.

4. New York Jets, 3-13
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

Ah, the Jets. They did the smart thing and started rebuilding their offensive line. Now it will take several seasons to actually get talent to play behind it. In Chad Pennington, the Jets have an average NFL quarterback. When he’s healthy. If he goes down again, and either Patrick Ramsey or Kellen Clemens have to come in, it’s going to get real ugly, real quickly. The running back Derrick Blaylock won’t provide much help. Blaylock has spent the majority of his career as a third-string back and is certainly not ready to be thrust into a starting roll in New York City. The defensive front seven is all right, but the secondary is among the worst three in the NFL.
Best Player: Jonathan Vilma, ILB. In the Jets 3-4, Vilma almost has to act like a lineman/end/linebacker hybrid. He’ll be on the field a lot this season, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make plays.
Key Player: Derrick Blaylock, RB. If he is capable of gaining 1,200 yards, then he makes life a lot easier for the rest of the Jets offense. Just don’t count on that happening.
Big Game: at Jacksonville (10/8). With an easy September schedule, Jacksonville is the one road game the Jets face in October. If they pull the upset in Florida, they could actually be around .500 going into the second half of the season.

NORTH

1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-6
Last Season: 11-5, 2nd place

The defending champs come in with a quarterback who has a suddenly fragile psyche, missing the running back that was the face of their franchise for several seasons and a coach who may leave the team after the season is over. There is really no chance for the Steelers to be better than they were last year in terms of record and certainly in terms of postseason play. The defense is still great and their offensive line is still intact. But Willie Parker will be the lone back for the Steelers, and will have to find a way to get tougher in goal situations (which was the role for Jerome Bettis last year). And Ben Roethlisberger, even ignoring his decision to go sans-helmet this offseason, has had injury problems in the past and already will miss at least the ope ner with an appendectomy. That means the Charlie Batch era is only one hit away over the course of 16 games. That has got to be a scary thought for Bill Cowher.
Best Player: Troy Polamalu, SS. Without a doubt, the best hitter and best safety in the AFC.
Key Player: Casey Hampton, DL. Must play well in the 3-4 to keep blockers off Joey Porter…who is close to joining Ray Lewis near the top of the list of overrated linebackers.
Big Game: vs. Kansas City (10/15). Last home game before a tough six-game stretch featuring four road contests. Can’t afford to go into that part of the schedule on a loss.

2. Cincinnati Bengals, 10-6
Last Season: 11-5, 1st place

The offense is pretty much set, as long as Carson Palmer’s knee holds together. Only the Colts are more dangerous on that side of the ball (and since Indy is without Edgerrin James, the Bengals may be better). The question from last season still stands for this one. Can the Bengals stop anybody else’s offense? The defense is still very suspect. No projected starter had more than 85 tackles last season (the only team in the NFL that applies to). There is a lot of talent on the defensive side, but they’ve shown very little the last couple of the seasons. If Marvin Lewis is a defensive guru, this should be an area the Bengals will get better at. Unlike last year, the Bengals will be saddled with a tough schedule. Infact, it’s the toughest schedule in the league.
Best Player: Carson Palmer, QB. Trails only Peyton Manning in terms of ability at the quarterback position.
Key Player: Palmer. If his knee goes out again, a 10-6 team instantly becomes a 6-10 team. Must stay healthy above all else.
Big Game: vs. New England (10/1). Other than the games against Baltimore, Cleveland and Oakland, there are no easy games on this schedule. The New England game ends a brutal four-game opening stretch and they’ll need a win before their bye week.


If Palmer is wearing this hat instead of the one with the facemask, Cincy is in trouble. At least he's got some tunes though.


3. Baltimore Ravens, 7-9
Last Season: 6-10, 3rd place

With all the questions and criticism surrounding the “old” Mark Brunell, where are the same questions about Steve McNair? The quarterbacks are almost identical in terms of style of game, throwing motion and, most importantly, age. However, Brunell has been placed in a very talented offense and McNair has not. During his career, McNair has never had to carry a team (he played with Eddie George during the successful seasons for Tennessee) or has never been able to carry a team (the last few seasons without George). If he still was the McNair old, or was a quarterback who could be counted on in the clutch, would Tennessee have gotten rid of him and drafted Vince Young? Of course not. There aren’t exactly a lot of talented quarterbacks in this league. So Baltimore is getting an over-the-hill quarterback for their non-functioning offense. But at least he’s not Kyle Boller. Defensively, the Ravens, at least on the d-line, are no longer the intimidating thugs they used to be. Trevor Price? Kelly Gregg? Haloti Ngata? Are those three really scaring anyone? Maybe it’s best to cancel the Super Bowl parade in the inner harbor.
Best Player: Terrell Suggs, RE. Not a whole lot to pick from here, but Suggs, along with Ed Reed, are the only Pro-Bowl caliber players left on the Ravens’ stronger unit.
Key Player: Dawan Landry, SS. Along with Samari Rolle, the true rookie will be asked to anchor the right side of the Baltimore secondary. If he can’t handle the transition to the NFL, there will be a huge hole in the Ravens’ defense.
Big Game: vs. Atlanta (11/19). In a month with two games against Cincinnati and a game against Pittsburgh, a home game with a tough Atlanta team is a must-win if Baltimore has any playoff hopes.

4. Cleveland Browns, 6-10
Last Season: 5-11, 4th place

The Browns finally have someone resembling a franchise quarterback in Charlie Frye. Now he must progress. He showed flashes of promise in 2005 and most continue to do so this season. He’ll finally get to throw to Kellen Winslow Jr., he has a good offensive line in front of him and a good running back behind him. The Browns are starting to collect all the pieces in order to be a decent team. The defense is really lagging behind the offense in that regard. The secondary is going to get lit up, and it’s going to be hard for the D to be anything but 25th or so in the NFL. The talent is just not there. Cleveland is going to score, but won’t be able to stop anyone.
Best Player: Reuben Droughns, RB. Most seem to be down on Droughns for various reasons. I think he’s poised for a 1,300+ yard breakout season.
Key Player: Joe Jurevicius, WR. With Winslow and Braylon Edwards, Frye has two solid targets. Now Jurevicius has to give him a capable third option.
Big Game: vs. Baltimore (9/24). This will be a good early test for the Browns’ offense at home. They may be able to leap-frog the Ravens if they prevail.

SOUTH

1. Indianapolis Colts, 13-3
Last Season: 14-2, 1st place

Plain and simple: still the best team in the NFL. They just need to do something in the postseason. The loss of Edgerrin James will hurt, but the combination of Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai should be able to combine for similar numbers. The Colts were able to keep Reggie Wayne and keep him partnered with Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark. And they still have Peyton Manning behind center. You’ve heard of him, right? The defense is better than average…certainly in the top half of the league. Their secondary, namely Nick Harper and Jason David, need to improve. The biggest addition may be Adam Vinatieri to replace the anti-Vinatieri Mike Vanderjagt. Vanderjagt is a good fit for Dallas, but Vinatieri is an even better fit for the Colts. He may be the difference in a second-round loss and a Super Bowl win.
Best Player: Peyton Manning, QB. Enough said.
Key Player: Montae Reagor/Raheem Brock, DL. The Colts get great defensive line play from ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. They need better play from Reagor and Brock in the middle to become a dominating unit.
Big Game: vs. Cincinnati (12/18). This game late in the year could have playoff ramifications for several teams. Even if it doesn’t, it will still be entertaining.


Despite not have Edge, Manning still has Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to lead Indy to the Super Bowl.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars, 9-7
Last Season: 11-5, 2nd place

The 2005 Jaguars were an average team with an incredibly easy schedule. The 2006 Jaguars are a good team, with a great defense, but a tougher road ahead of them. The defense was ranked 14th last season, but should finish in the top 5, if not the top spot overall this season. There are a couple of spectacular players on the unit combined with a lot of big, quick and aggressive role players. There are no soft spots in their armor. The only problem could be the amount of time they spend on the field because the offense could have problems moving the ball. Byron Leftwich and Fred Taylor are injuries waiting to happen. Leftwich has no one to throw to with the retirement of Jimmy Smith (somehow I don’t see Matt Jones stepping up). The offensive line is skilled, but young, which won’t help against teams with good defensive lines like Indianapolis, Miami, Washington, Dallas and Pittsburgh. I think the schedule is going to get them in the end. Their closing stretch involves Miami, Indy, New England and Kansas City. If they can’t get out to a good start, they’re in big trouble.
Best Player: John Henderson, DL. John Henderson may just be the best player on an incredible unit. 70 tackles and 3 sacks for a defensive lineman in this scheme is very impressive. He’ll have a better season this year.
Key Player: Byron Leftwich, QB. Can he finally step up and become a Pro-Bowl quarterback? Can he even stay healthy for a full season? He’s got to do it with minimal ability at the wide receiver position.
Big Game: at Miami (12/3). Kicks off that scary closing stretch in December. Just in case a trip to South Beach isn’t tough enough, it’s back home to face Indy just seven days later.

3. Tennessee Titans, 6-10
Last Season: 4-12, 3rd place

The Titans begin the Vince Young experiment with ‘Ol Vince on the bench, electing to start Billy Volek instead. Volek is nothing more than an adequate quarterback, and I think it’s safe to assume Tennessee will go to Young by midseason. The Volek/Young combination has several nice targets to throw to. David Givens, Drew Bennett and Ben Troupe are all solid options. The offensive line is finally starting to get better, especially after the addition of Kevin Mawae. So with a decent offensive line, and a shaky quarterback situation, this is the year Chris Brown needs to do something…unless Lendale White is ready now. There’s some talent on the defense too with Kyle Vanden Bosch (12.5 sacks in ’05), Albert Haynesworth, Keith Bulluck and Chris Hope. However, like the offense, there are just too many holes to fill in one off-season. There are talented players present, but there are several players that shouldn’t be on an NFL roster that are going to be forced into starting roles. After a couple of years of terrible football and salary cap neglect, the Titans are finally starting to get their act together and are assembling a team that can compete in the NFL. Unfortunately, they won’t be able to catch up to Indy or Jacksonville for at least two more seasons.
Best Player: Keith Bulluck, OLB. On a defensive unit ranked 19th in 2005, Bulluck still managed 138 tackles and 2 sacks from an outside linebacking position.
Key Player: Chris Brown, RB. Like I said above, Brown needs to become a reliable back this season. The Titans need a running game because they won’t be able to rely on their quarterback to win games. The pressure is on him or we’ll see Lendale White soon.
Big Game: at Indianapolis (10/8). Titans usually play the Colts close, and they’ll need a win here following games against San Diego and Dallas and with games upcoming at Washington and Jacksonville.

4. Houston Texans, 3-13
Last Season: 2-14, 4th place

The light at the end of the tunnel for the Houston Texans’ miserable 2-14 season was a certain running back from USC who was expected to go number 1 in the draft. The Texans instead decided to select a defensive end from football powerhouse N.C. State, while neglecting their glaring needs at running back, offensive line and defensive backfield. In other words, the Texans blew it. Making matters worse, their starting running back, the respectable Domanick Davis, recently was put on the injured reserve with a knee injury, ending his season a week before Houston’s first game. So now a team with no offensive line and no running back, puts the ball into the hands of David Carr, who has spent the majority of his career on his back with at least one three-hundred pound lineman on top of him. Things aren’t looking much better in 2006 for Carr. Defensively, Mario Williams may turn out to be an All-Pro end (I doubt it). If Williams does play like a number 1 pick, it won’t make much difference. Other than Dunta Robinson and rookie DeMarco Ryans, this team has almost nothing else on the defensive side of the ball. Looks like another number 1 pick for Houston in 2007. Too bad Reggie Bush won’t be available to them.
Best Player: Andre Johnson, WR. If he can stay healthy, and if David Carr can somehow stay upright long enough to find him, Johnson is one of the better receivers in the league.
Key Player: Mario Williams, DE. Ok, Mario. You’d better perform and perform quickly or Houston fans will be waiting to run you out of town.
Big Game: vs. Buffalo (11/19). Owner Bob McNair was quoted as saying “I don’t see anyone on the schedule that frightens me.” Perhaps he picked up the University of Houston’s schedule by mistake. I picked the Buffalo game because it most likely will be the first winnable game of the year for Houston.

WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6
Last Season: 10-6, 2nd place

This is what I don’t get. The media basically has Larry Johnson as the second coming. So why does everybody have Kansas City going 8-8 or worse? If anything, the loss of Al Saunders and the switch over to Herm Edwards and his offense helped the Chiefs. Now they can focus on being a straight-ahead attacking team with one of the best backs and best lines in the league instead of all the gadgetry that Saunders tried last season. Offensively, we know the Chiefs are going to put up points. The question, as it has been for the past five seasons, is the defense. Jared Allen put up monster numbers last season and the addition of rookie Tamba Hali gives KC two solid defensive ends. Derrick Johnson looks better and better all the time at linebacker. So does Kawika Mitchell. And the addition of Ty Law to Sammy Knight and Patrick Surtain in the secondary was a nice move. The Chiefs’ defense isn’t going to be dominant by any means, but if they can hold teams to 17-20 points, they should be able to win this wild division.
Best Player: Larry Johnson, RB. Dude, where have you been the past nine months. The hype surrounding Johnson is legit.
Key Player: Kyle Turley, LT. Turley steps in for long time All-Pro Willie Roaf at left tackle. He needs to protect Trent Green’s blindside and clear holes for Johnson or this offense won’t be nearly as dangerous as before.
Big Game: vs. Denver (11/23). The Chiefs get to host a Thanksgiving night game against last season’s division winner. With a relatively easy December, the Chiefs could seal the West with a win against their rivals.

2. Denver Broncos, 9-7
Last Season, 13-3, 1st place

Before trying to predict what Denver is going to do in 2006, you have to ask yourself this question: Were the 2005 Broncos that went 13-3 really that good? I don’t think so. And I think the Broncos will come back down to Earth this year. This may be the year that the platoon running back system of Mike Shanahan’s fails. There’s also a fair chance that Jake Plummer will revert back to his old ways. Sure he has Javon Walker to throw to, but the team’s best tight end is Stephen Alexander, which means no security blanket for a quarterback who just loves to make mistakes. The 2003 Cleveland Browns defensive line was good enough last season for the 15th ranked defense, but I can’t see them reprising that roll for a second straight year. The Broncos had everything bounce right for them last season. Their luck will run out in 2006.
Best Player: Tom Nalen, C. Perhaps the best center in the game and one of the reason’s Denver’s running game always seems to work.
Key Player: Courtney Brown, DE. Unlike last year when he was part of a rotation at end, Brown will be asked to be the every down right end this season. He must find a way to generate a pass rush as Denver’s defensive line only accounted for seven sacks last year.
Big Game: vs. Kansas City (9/17). As you see above, KC hosts Denver in late November. The Broncos can’t afford to go into that game having already lost to the Chiefs. Must find a way to beat the Chiefs at home.

3. San Diego Chargers, 8-8
Last Season: 9-7, 3rd place

This was by far the hardest team to figure out. There is so much to like about the Bolts. Let’s start with their terrific offensive line. Then let’s mention LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Hard not to like that combination. The defensive is extremely quick and aggressive and has talent from front line to back line. Donnie Edwards, Randall Godfrey, Shawne Merriman, Quentin Jammer, etc…the list goes on. But the problem for San Diego comes at the two positions you can’t afford to have problems at: head coach and quarterback. With all this talent last year, and with a capable quarterback, Marty Schottenheimer somehow managed to boldly lead the Chargers to a disappointing 9-7 record. This isn’t the first time one of Schottenheimer’s teams have underachieved. To make matters worse, Marty lost All-Pro Drew Brees and decided to have sidearm-throwing Phillip Rivers replace him. This is a terrible move, maybe one of the worst moves from this past off-season. Overall, this team has too much talent to be bad. But unless Rivers grows up quickly and changes that damn throwing motion, Marty will once again lead this team to mediocrity.
Best Player: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB. I shouldn’t have to tell you why.
Key Player: Keenan McCardell, WR. The ageless wonder is Rivers’ number 1 wide receiver. McCardell is going to have to help the raw quarterback because teams are going to take away Tomlinson and Gates.
Big Game: at Baltimore (10/1). This is a game, on paper, that San Diego should win. But let’s see how Rivers handles this defense.


I'm not sure where this pass ended up, but I'm sure it wasn't good. Look for more bad throws from this man in 2006.

4. Oakland Raiders, 4-12
Last Season: 4-12, 4th place

The fact they signed Jeff George is not exactly a good omen heading into the season. But George and Aaron Brooks aren’t the only problems facing Art Shell. The right side of his offensive line is in tatters. LaMont Jordan has yet to prove he can be a featured back. Randy Moss has clearly taken a step back. And even though he’s still talented, if things don’t go his way, he’s sure to have a distracting hissy-fit. Jerry Porter on the other side is already complaining about money and lack of catches and the overall crummy shape of the franchise. Defensively, after Derrick Burgess and Stuart Schweigert, there isn’t much there. Michael Huff was a risk pick at safety. Both corners are easily beatable. The combination of Warren Sapp and Tommy Kelly in the middle of the line netted a total of only 77 tackles last season (one of the reasons Oakland’s defense was 27th). In fact, Burgess had as many sacks last year as other defensive end Tyler Brayton had total tackles. This defense will be one of the five worst again. The offense, while at times could be interesting, will not be able to bully the better defenses around. Oakland has the firepower to hang in ballgames, but doesn’t have the talent or discipline to win many.
Best Player: Derrick Burgess, DE. Maybe one of the most underrated ends in the league. He had 16 sacks last year. Good enough to supplant Randy Moss for “best player” title.
Key Player: Sam Williams, OLB. Williams hasn’t played in two seasons and has never really been a consistent starter. But, if he performs, then the Raiders actually have the making of a decent linebacking core.
Big Game: vs. Cleveland (10/1). Oakland starts out with games against San Diego, Baltimore, Cleveland and San Francisco. All four are winnable games and the key contest is the home game with Cleveland. If they win here, they should be no worst than 3-1.

Playoffs:
First Round
(6) New England vs. (3) Miami
(5) Cincinnati vs. (4) Kansas City

Second Round
(6) New England vs. (1) Indianapolis
(4) Kansas City vs. (2) Pittsburgh

AFC Championship
Indianapolis over Kansas City