NFL Week 5: Say No To St. Louis

Ok, so my 8-5 record for week 4 wasn’t great. No excuses really. However, on my behalf, when I made these picks last Thursday, I didn’t know that Vince Young would be starting. Or that Shawne Merriman would forget how to tackle. Or that Matt Hasselbeck would forget to throw to his own team. The 8-5 mark, and the 6-6-1 tally against the spread still keep both of my records well above the .500 mark.
Overall: 38-18 (68%)
Vs. Spread: 31-22-3
I’ll try and pick it up this week, but as always, don’t use the following as the basis for any wagering what so ever.

SUNDAY
Tennessee Titans (0-4) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-0)(-18)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
If Kerry Collins were still playing, this would be an easy pick. Since Vince Young is starting, I can actually see the Colts carrying the 18-point spread.
Pick: Colts

Detroit Lions (0-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-2)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
Hey, I didn’t get 20 games above .500 by picking the Lions. Why start now?
Pick: Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Coming off their bye week, you have to figure that the Bucs are due to get off the mat and finally get a win. This team, even without Chris Simms, is too good to go 0-4. And here’s another thing about Simms. I spend all last season blasting him and saying that he would never amount to anything in the NFL. Then, after playing well most of 2005, I finally start coming around on Simms, and I end up predicting that the Bucs will have another season above .500 mainly because of the play of Simms. And then what does he do? He plays like crap for two games and then gets hurt. Chris, couldn’t you have done all this last season? It would have saved me a lot of time.
Pick: Saints, Buccaneers cover

St. Louis Rams (3-1)(-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (1-3)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
We all know the Rams aren’t good enough to be a dangerous 3-1 team. Or even a dangerous 4-1 team. They’re not better than Seattle, San Diego, Kansas City, Carolina, Chicago or Washington. Why those teams, you ask? Because those are just some of the opponents they are going to lose to after this weekend.
Pick: Packers

Miami Dolphins (1-3) vs. New England Patriots (3-1)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I really don’t know what to say about Miami. They should be 3-1 at least at this point. Daunte Culpepper is clearly not healthy and he’s afraid to throw the ball. I don’t think it has registered with Culpepper that he’s no longer able to lob the ball up 40 yards downfield for Randy Moss. He looked terrible against Houston. Now that I’m going to pick New England, it wouldn’t surprise me if this was the game that Culpepper turns it around.
Pick: Patriots

Buffalo Bills (2-2) vs. Chicago Bears (4-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
J.P. Losman against the Bears defense. Hmmm…who could I possibly pick here.
Pick: Bears

Cleveland Browns (1-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
The Carolina defense is finally starting to solidify. They looked great for three quarters against New Orleans. Then, like so many teams, they got soft in the fourth quarter and almost lost the game. Still, when the Panthers are playing their normal sets, their defense is almost unbeatable. And Cleveland’s offense isn’t close to the talent level that the Saints have.
Pick: Panthers

New York Jets (2-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Alltel Stadium
This is a huge game for the Jets. The next three games are against Miami, Detroit and Cleveland. A win here almost guarantees them a 6-2 record. Or no worse than 5-3. But after giving up 36 points last week, how pissed do you think that good Jaguars defense is going to be?
Pick: Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)(-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
How much confidence do I have in Matt Leinart? Not that much. However, I think Denny Green starting Leinart over Kurt Warner will force Green to use a more run-oriented attack. And even with Arizona’s terrible line, I like Edgerrin James against the Kansas City front seven. And I don’t know how many times I can make fun of him, but I don’t like Damon Huard in a shootout.
Pick: Cardinals

Oakland Raiders (0-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Monster Park
If a game is played in the Bay Area, and no one is there to watch it, did it really occur?
Pick: 49ers

Dallas Terrells (2-1) vs. Philadelphia McNabbs (3-1)(-2)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
I refuse to talk about this game. Sorry. If you want to hear more about it, just turn on ESPN at any given time this week and I’m sure they’ll be discussing it as only ESPN can.
Pick: McNabbs

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-1)(-3)
8:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Oh, please tell me the Steelers are on their way to 1-3. That would be so sweet. I know a 1-3 record wouldn’t be enough to shut up Joey Porter, but it’s a start.
Pick: Chargers

MONDAY
Baltimore Ravens (4-0) vs. Denver Broncos (2-1)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
If I pick the Ravens, Jake Plummer will go off. If I pick the Broncos, Plummer will have a minimum of three interceptions. Dammed if you do…
Pick: Broncos

Bye Week: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Houston, Seattle

So the Redskins scored 36 points last week. You know what other team scored 36 points? The Giants did, the last time the Redskins went to the Meadowlands. Can the Redskins avoid another embarrassment to New Jersey’s favorite squad, or will Team Disharmony rally around the NFL’s most liked coach? I’ll tell you tomorrow.