NFL Week 7: What Happens When A Collapsing Team Enters A Black Hole?

The record for week 6 wasn’t as good as the record for week 5, but a 9-3 mark is still solid. Combine that with another above .500 week against the spread, and the records keep looking better and better:
Overall: 58-23 (71%)
Vs. Spread: 49-28-4
Because I’m busy at work this week, we’re going to keep it short and simple. The following predictions should not be used for gambling purposes

SUNDAY
San Diego Chargers (4-1)(-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I love when Vegas does this. They put too much stock into a team, in this case Kansas City, getting blown out the week before. They then overrate a team with a good record that blew out an inferior opponent. They completely ignore the fact that the Chargers are playing a division game, on the road, in one of the NFL’s most hostile environments, at a stadium they never play well at, against a decent Chiefs team. Do I need to say more?
Pick: Chargers, Chiefs cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)(-9.5) vs. Houston Texans (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
The Jaguars finally end the Murderers Row part of their schedule and now get to step into the college ranks to get an easy win. By the way, in five games Mario Williams has a lousy total of 1.5 sacks. Season pace total: 5 sacks. Career pace (considering he won’t last more than five years in the NFL): 25.
Pick: Jaguars

New England Patriots (4-1)(-5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-4)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
So let me get this straight. The Chargers are six point favorites at Arrowhead. The Pats are only 5.5 point favorites at Buffalo, a place where the stadium is never full, the Bills are already out of contention, and the team has one legit offensive weapon? Make any sense to you?
Pick: Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)(-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
So it appears that the Falcons are going to be the team that, no matter if I pick them to win or lose, will do the opposite of my prediction. With the exception of correctly picking the Saints to beat them in week 3, I haven’t been right about the Falcons all year. So to punish the Falcons, I’m picking against them. Or will that help them? I don’t know, it will probably be wrong.
Pick: Steelers

Green Bay Packers (1-4) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-5)(-5)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
As a former member of the Lions, Joey Harrington is used to throwing interceptions to the Packers. That trend will continue.
Pick: Packers

Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)(-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
The loss last week for Philly was huge. After this week’s game with the Bucs, there are no more gimmies. Four division games (three on the road), along with games against Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Carolina and Atlanta remain for the Eagles. That’s a lot of losses left for the Birds. And you know what, they’re going to lose this game too.
Pick: Buccaneers

Detroit Lions (1-5) vs. New York Jets (3-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Why waste time talking about this game? You know I’m not going to pick the Lions. What, was their win against the miserable Bills last week supposed to impress me?
Pick: Jets

Carolina Panthers (4-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Oh man. What do I do here? Up to the midway point of the Patriots game, Carson Palmer looked healthy and confident. Since then he’s been a mess. In last week’s game against Tampa, he was limping around for several quarters. He yelled at his teammates more than I’m used to seeing him do (I’ll admit that I don’t watch that many Bengals games, so that observance could be wrong). Most importantly, there were plenty of plays where he just looked confused. You could see it in his face after the play was over. He wasn’t sure what he was seeing from Tampa. And he had plenty of open receivers downfield and never really looked for them. I’m not sure if he didn’t see them, or if he didn’t trust his line, or didn’t trust his arm or ability to get the ball there or if it was a combination of those things. Either way, I’m hesitant to take the Bengals in a game like this until I see the September Carson Palmer return.
Pick: Panthers, Bengals cover

Denver Broncos (4-1)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-4)
4:05 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
If anyone is looking for a possible “major” upset, this could be the one. The Broncos don’t score much, so their opponent is always in the game. Plus, they’re going on the road against a scrappy team coming off their bye week. It’s tempting for me to take Cleveland, but I can’t see the Browns scoring more than seven points.
Pick: Broncos, Browns cover

Minnesota Vikings (3-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-1)(-6)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Stadium
It’s the Revenge Bowl. The Vikings signed restricted free agent and ex-Seahawk Ryan Hutchinson to a $49 million deal. The Seahawks responded by signing restricted free agent and ex-Viking Nate Burleson to the same deal. Who was the ad wizard in the Seattle front office that came up with that one? Anyway, another game without Shaun Alexander means another 300-yard, 3-touchdown performance for Matt Hasselbeck (With the way I drool over Hasselbeck, can you tell he’s on my fantasy team?).
Pick: Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (1-5)(-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-5)
4:15 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
The thing that gets lost when discussing the Arizona collapse last week is that analysts that know the NFL are actually surprised that the Cardinals fell apart. Really? This is the same Cardinal team that has won one playoff game the last 20 years and routinely is one of the league’s laughing stocks. And people are surprised? Once the Bears defense scored on the Matt Leinart fumble at the end of the third quarter, I knew the Bears were going to win it. To be fair, I didn’t see the Bears winning with only three offensive points and six turnovers, but nothing really surprises me when it comes to the Cardinals ineptitude. So with all that, I’m obviously picking against Arizona as they travel to the East Bay's Black Hole, right? Um, you see the team they’re playing, don’t you?
Pick: Cardinals

MONDAY
New York Giants (3-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Texas Stadium
The best part about this game? Barring the partial Texas Stadium roof collapsing and the game ending in a tie, someone has to lose this one.
Pick: Giants

Bye Week: Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee

I’m working a lot this week. And I’m going to need a lot of time to rip the Redskins after their performance last Sunday. The short answer: they stunk. The long answer: they really stunk. So eventually I’ll get that post up before the game this weekend. At least things get easier for the Redskins…they only have to go on the road and play Indianapolis. Ugh.