Maryland Basketball: March Comes Early

Maryland Terrapins (19-7, 5-6 ACC) at
Clemson Tigers (19-6, 5-6 ACC)
Littlejohn Coliseum - Clemson, SC

I wasn’t pleased with the effort. I was pleased with the result. Maryland fooled around with NC State for 25-30 minutes, then finally realized that they were much better than Sidney Lowe’s team of six players and kicked it into another gear.

I’m not sure how excited I can get over this win. On one hand, this is a game that the Maryland of the past few years wouldn’t have won. Plus it was a road game. Anytime you win on the road in conference you help your cause immensely. On the other hand, it was against NC State. As I chronicled in the last post, it’s hard to get excited about a game that they were supposed to win and they struggled for the majority of the game to do it.

Maryland has to face what could very well be a NCAA tournament elimination game. When we last saw Clemson, they were 17-0, the last undefeated team in the country. After the Terps handed them a five point loss at Comcast, the Tigers have been in a major downwards spiral. Since leaving College Park, Clemson lost five of its next seven. And they’ve done so in a variety of ways. They’ve been blown out at Georgia Tech. They were blown out by more at home against UNC. They lost on a buzzer beater against Wake…a loss that is going to look real bad in the coming weeks. They collapsed at home against Virginia, giving up a double-digit lead in the closing minutes. And they were beaten by the clock-operator in Durham.

Now Clemson sits at 5-6 in conference. Their four notable out of conference wins came against Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Minnesota. Other than Georgia, none of those teams have a shot at making the Dance. Even Georgia is on the bubble fringe. And judging by the way that Minnesota and MSU have played, Clemson’s RPI would be better if they didn’t play either of those teams. The wins over those two may actually hurt their tournament chances.

Clemson, despite the hot start, has to get to 8-8 in conference. Following Maryland tomorrow, they have home games against Duke and Miami, and road trips to Virginia Tech and Boston College. Somewhere in there, they have to find three wins, or two wins and at least one win in the ACC tournament.

The problem for Clemson, as has been the case the past decade, is their offense. In their first four ACC games, including the one against Maryland, the Tigers scored 79 points per game. That resulted in a 3-1 record, including an impressive win in Tallahassee. During the last seven games, the Tigers have averaged 65 points per game. That’s a 14 point drop! Think about how much that is over the course of a ballgame. Assuming no four point plays, that’s a minimum of five possessions. Their field goal percentage has dropped dramatically. The assists per game have fallen. The turnovers have risen. The shine has come off K.C. Rivers, who scored in double-digits in each of the first 18 games, but only twice in the last seven. Basically, the entire offense has slumped. Hence, the 14-point swing.

In the last meeting between these two, Clemson shot nearly 50%. Maryland, on the other hand, shot an incredible 62.7%. Neither of these teams will shoot that well tomorrow, so don’t expect another 92-87 game. So the boards become a lot more important than in the January meeting. The Terps outrebounded Clemson 33-26 in the first game, but that’s mainly because all the missed shots seemed to come on the Clemson offensive end. The Tigers outrebounded Maryland offensively 16-11. Heck, James Mays had 10 offensive boards by himself. That kind of gap cannot happen again. That is five additional second chance opportunities for Clemson, a team that is five possessions worse offensively since the last meeting.

Also, the Terps have to come out with the balanced scoring they showed in January. All five starters scored in double figures. Lost in the shuffle of Greivis Vasquez-mania, D.J.’s resurgence and James Gist’s inside-outside dominance, has been the lack of Mike Jones. Let’s not forget about this guy. He’s still a pretty good shooter. Give him some chances early in the game. If it doesn’t work, then try something else. But if he gets going early, the rest of the team gets that much more dangerous.

Clemson seems to be having one of their patented swoons. They still have plenty of time to save their season, starting tomorrow. This game will be played with March intensity as both teams know the importance of this game. The winner of this one gets to .500 in conference play and is in good position for the final four games. The loser is left scrambling to keep afloat in the murky ACC.

Maryland 74
Clemson 71

Elsewhere around the ACC…

After I was starting to pick up steam and improve the record, I ran into a 1-4 midweek stretch, where only Maryland’s win over State saved me from taking the squadoosh. 37-19 is where I stand now.

SATURDAY
Florida State at Virginia
Let me take some time to address some of the comments I have received recently. A couple of weeks ago, the Hoos played Maryland for the second time. During the post, I stated that Virginia is a team “that has several obvious flaws.” This apparently enraged the UVA fanbase (all three of you?) and several left comments on the page.

First off, let me encourage you, and anyone else reading to leave all the comments they want. I do enjoy getting comments…even when the grammar and spelling is somewhat lacking (I thought UVA was supposed to be a good public school). I will try to respond to the comments as soon as possible. So in all seriousness, feel free to leave whatever you want here.

Second, before I get to the complaints, let me state that I correctly picked Virginia to win that game, despite my above comments. I also said in November, way before anyone else, including the majority of UVA fans, that Virginia would make the NCAA tournament. Finally, I love watching Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds. They’re both very special guards and they play with energy and enthusiasm which is lacking in most of college basketball. So guys, it’s nothing personal. Taunting me because Virginia beat Maryland isn’t going to keep me up at night. I did predict it after all.

Now to my comment. I think the majority of you were enraged that I said that Virginia had several obvious flaws without stating what they actually were. Fair enough. In my defense, I didn’t have time to spell them out, and I said they were kind of obvious. I figured that most college basketball fans would know what they were. But here they are anyway. Virginia, right now, has two flaws which are going to be extremely damaging in March. The first is its frontcourt. Now I know that Jason Cain had gone off on Maryland twice this year, and that’s very embarrassing. But a good team (in the ACC or otherwise), which Maryland isn’t (I would call them average), isn’t going to be scared of the UVA inside combination of Cain and Mikalauskas. They just aren’t. Among the top four or five teams in the conference, this is by far the worst inside paring. In the NCAA tournament, Virginia is going to have a game where Reynolds struggles to shoot and the other team keys on Singletary (or the other way around). When this happens, UVA is going to have to rely on Jason Cain, or Mamadi Diane, or someone else to win them the game with easy inside baskets. Does any UVA fan really feel confident in anyone other than Reynolds or Singletary coming through when the game is on the line? Plus, the lack of solid big men hurts on the defensive end. UVA right now is a six or seven seed in the NCAA’s. What happens if they face Ohio State and Greg Oden in the second round? Or Nick Fazakes and Nevada? Or Pittsburgh and Aaron Gray? Or Texas A&M and Joseph Jones? Who stops these guys if Virginia plays them?

The other problem is related to the first one. Virginia doesn’t possess a consistent third scorer. Diane will have his good games. So will Cain. So will a handful of other players. But there has been no consistent third scorer for UVA. You can’t win in March with a two person team that has no inside game. You just can’t. Virginia is a great story. They should easily make the NCAA tournament. Dave Leitao is doing a great job rebuilding Pete Gillen’s mess. This has already been a successful season for the Hoos. But to expect them to get deep into March is crazy. This team, at best, is a sweet 16 team. Most likely, the Cavs won’t make it out of the first weekend.
Pick: Virginia 83, Florida State 74

Miami at Wake Forest
I’m really not required to talk about this game, am I? When in doubt, go with the home team.
Pick: Wake Forest 69, Miami 63

North Carolina at Boston College
How many times can you remember the two top teams in the conference, playing each other after both of them came off losses at home? I can’t think of any off the top of my head. Boston College lost their game against Duke because they didn’t try for the majority of the game. Al Skinner should have them fired up. On the other side, I don’t think UNC did anything wrong against Virginia Tech. The Hokies were just better and matched up more favorably. The motivation factor belongs to BC, and I think they’ll come out inspired at home. They can’t play that poorly two weeks in a row.
Pick: Boston College 85, North Carolina 80

SUNDAY
Georgia Tech at Duke
Well, it was fun while it lasted. Credit to Duke for taking what BC gave them. Still, it got mighty close at the end there when Boston College decided that turning the ball over wasn’t an effective offensive strategy. Duke takes this one is a bit of revenge from an earlier loss, but it will be much closer than it should be.
Pick: Duke 75, Georgia Tech 67

Virginia Tech at NC State
While the letdown factor is at play here, Seth Greenberg won’t let his team lose twice at the hands of a undermanned and poorly coached squad. Look for the Hokies to win big on the road, despite the appearance of this being a perfect trap game.
Pick: Virginia Tech 78, NC State 64