Super Bowl XLI: Hate To Say I Told You So

Indianapolis Colts (15-4) vs.
Chicago Bears (15-3)
6:25 p.m. Dolphins Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL
SUPER BOWL XLI

Like everyone else, I’m pretty tired of hearing about the Super Bowl and would love to see it actually played. What is the point of having two weeks off? The teams certainly don’t need it. By the time the Chicago Bears take the field this Sunday, they will have played a grand total of two games in the past 35 days. I think that qualifies as well rested. It certainly can’t be that the Super Bowl needs more hype. If there was only one week between the conference championships and the big game, do you think anyone would forget it was being played? We could still have the pointless media day, still have days upon days of coverage on ESPN, just so everyone could get their worthless fill of Chris Berman, and we would still have plenty of time to ask 100 different ex-players or analysts if Good Rex, Bad Rex or Homicidal Rex will show up to the game. Seriously, how many times do we have to hear variations of the same joke about Tank Johnson, a Miami nightclub and a bulletproof vest? Hahaha, I know, I know, we all get it. He shot a gun off. Hilarious.

The NFL at least managed to do something right. After consecutive Super Bowls at Houston, Jacksonville and Detroit, the league decided to forgo a February trip to Spokane or Topeka, and hosted a Super Bowl at a place people actually want to go. I know, novel concept. So despite the constant barrage of unnecessary of hype for a game that everyone is going to watch anyway, the NFL gets lucky and has a very intriguing matchup at a money locale. In other words, straight cash homey.

Now, just in case you’ve drunkenly stumbled upon this page, and you think I’m just another yahoo with a website, I feel compelled to tell you that you are probably right. What do I know, right? But this is the portion of the broadcast where I put up the overall predicting record of 158-82 (66%), which is one of the best records you can find from anyone in the papers, on the boob tube, or on this world wide web contraption. It’s also important to remember that I’m currently 8-2 during the playoffs, and really should be 9-1 if it wasn’t for the combined efforts of Marty Schottenheimer and Philip Rivers snatching a defeat from the jaws of victory. Finally, it’s my obligation to remind you that I have, in some form or another, correctly predicted the last NINE Super Bowl winners. That includes Denver’s historic upset of Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII, New England’s even bigger upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI, Tampa’s double-digit win over Oakland in XXXVII and last year’s referee-induced Pittsburgh victory over Seattle in Super Bowl XL. In other words, I kinda know what I’m talking about.

On the surface, this game appears to be an easy victory for the Indianapolis Colts. But when I broke down the individuals matchups, this game appeared much closer than it seemed at first glance. Let’s take a look, shall we.

Quarterbacks: The one position where we don’t need to waste much time on. On one side, you have the greatest quarterback in the game right now in Peyton Manning. After watching a lot of his games over the last decade, I’ve come to the conclusion that he’s pretty good. On the other side, you have Rex Grossman. Yes, we all know that Rex has had his fair share of good games. But, due to federal ruling in Common Sense v. ESPN, 438 U.S. 113 (2006), I’m required by law, whenever I say Rex Grossman, to mention that he has had his fair share of bad games. We know that Peyton Manning’s postseason record is spotty at best. But Rex Grossman’s entire career, at least the part of his career that he’s been healthy for, has been spotty. Plus, how can I possibly pick a quarterback named Rex to win a Super Bowl? What kind of respect would I have for myself if I did that? Edge: Colts, big time


Peyton Manning's and Rex Grossman's talent level...to scale.

Running backs: The best overall running back resides with the Bears. Thomas Jones, who rushed for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns during the regular season, looks even more impressive in the playoffs. Especially late in the first half of the NFC Championship game against New Orleans. When a running back can consistently gain yards running the exact same play over and over again, there’s some talent there. However, the Bears, like the Colts and so many teams now in the NFL, use two running backs and split carries. Combined, Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes carried the ball for 1,722 yards and 12 touchdowns on a team that emphasizes the pass. That compares very favorably to the 1,857 yards and 12 touchdowns that Jones and Cedric Benson posted for the Bears during the season on a team that emphasized the run. So if Jones is the best of the four backs, than Addai and Rhodes are 2a and 2b and Benson’s running behind in fourth. However, Benson is the ex-factor. The former Texas star put up 105 yards in Chicago’s two playoff games and after two years of looking like Ricky Williams is starting to slightly resemble Earl Campbell. But only slightly. If he runs like he did against Seattle in the divisional playoffs, then things in this category become more one-sided. Until then…Advantage: Bears, slightly

Receivers/Tight Ends: If you think Manning is good on his own, then you don’t know football. The combined talents of Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark help Manning rack up all those impressive numbers. Compare them to the Bears tandem of Muhsin Muhammad and…um, and…you know, that other guy, and what’s his name at tight end, this is one of the more one-sided comparisons between the two teams. Advantage: Colts

Offensive line: Again, Peyton Manning doesn’t throw for all these yards and make all these Pro-Bowls because he’s playing behind stiffs. From Jeff Saturday to Tarik Glenn to Ryan Diam, the individual abilities in the offensive trenches is awesome for Indianapolis. Combine the talents, along with experience and familiarity with one another (this offensive line has been together for many years), this line becomes scary good. That’s not to say that Chicago starting a bunch of high school kids. Olin Kreutz is the second best center in the NFL (behind Saturday) and Roberto Garza and Fred Miller form a very formidable right side. Rex Grossman isn’t 15-3 because he’s a good decision maker. He’s 15-3 because he has eons to stand back in the pocket and decide which receiver he wants to overthrow. In other words, Chicago’s line is good, but the Colts’ line is better. Advantage: Colts


Why is it so hard to hit Peyton Manning. Two words: Tarik Glenn.

Defensive line: I couldn’t believe until I really looked at it, but this is surprisingly even matchup. I would have expected the Bears to dominate on defense. But that’s not necessarily the case. Both teams have outstanding ends. You could spend all day trying to figure out which of the combinations are better. Personally, because I believe the defensive ends are used better as pass rushers than run stoppers, I would take Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis over Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye. Both teams have one very good tackle (Tank Johnson vs. Booger McFarland…although you have to give the advantage to a guy named Tank) and one adequate tackle (Alfonso Boone vs. Raheem Brock). The Bears are much better against the run than Indy is, but the Colts line consists of more dangerous pass rushers, and over the course of the last few years, have forced more turnovers than the Bears front four. It’s basically a toss up. Advantage: Colts, slightly

Linebackers: Cato June and Gary Brackett are good, solid NFL linebackers. But they can’t compete with the one-two combination of Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher. They just can’t. Advantage: Bears


Chicago's only hope is superb play from Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher

Secondary: With Nathan Vasher, Charles Tillman and Ricky Manning Jr., the Bears corners are much better, and have more depth, than the Colts. Nick Harper is a good player if he can avoid another stabbing from his spouse. Jason David is an average corner. The Colts nickel corner is Marlin Jackson. Other than the interception made on Tom Brady’s heave during the Patriots last drive in the championship game, has Jackson done anything this year? However, with the return of Bob Sanders to the secondary, and the emergence during the playoffs of D.C. area native Antoine Bethea, combined with the continued absence due to injury in Chicago’s backfield of Mike Brown, the safeties for Indianapolis are better than the Bears’ tandem of Todd Johnson and Danieal Manning. Even with the lesser safety play, you still have to like the Bears depth and the multiple looks it allows them to show. Advantage: Bears

Special Teams: Yes, Devin Hester is good. The only problem for Chicago is they can’t force Indianapolis to kick to him. All Indy has to do is kick away from Hester, and the problem is solved. In terms of kickers, I think we’d all rather have Adam Vinatieri over Robbie Gould. There should be no debate there. Until Gould single-footedly wins two Super Bowls, Vinatieri is the proven kicker. It’s hard to compare the punters since the Colts rarely use Hunter Smith, but he seems to be just as good as Brad Maynard. Because of the kicking edge alone…Advantage: Colts

Coaches: The fact that there are many fans and media members still questioning some of the personnel moves Lovie Smith has made shows me that luck and playing in a poorer conference are more responsible for the Bears getting to this point than anything Smith has done so far. Save for the fourth quarter of the Saints game, the Bears have struggled in the playoffs at home. The Colts meanwhile, have dominated Kansas City, won with defense in Baltimore, then got past their nemesis New England with a little bit of everything. In other words, Tony Dungy was doing some serious coaching. Advantage: Colts


No need to unfold those arms Tony. It's not as if your team is going to win the Super bowl or anything important like that.

Now all those individual matchups seem good and all. Until I realized that comparing Manning to Grossman and so forth is pretty pointless. Manning may be a much better quarterback, but he isn’t going head-to-head with Grossman. He’s facing the Bears defense. Since I already declared special teams in favor of Indianapolis, let’s take a look at the other two main matchups.

WHEN INDIANAPOLIS HAS THE BALL…
Despite the massive amount of press the Bears defense gets, this is a very beatable unit. They have given up 38 points in two playoff games. Great defenses don’t give up that many points in the postseason. So ’85 Bears they’re not. The Bears defensive line is good, but the Colts offensive line is even better. The key matchup on the lines will be Ryan Diem vs. Adwale Ogunleye. I can’t begin to guess who will win. If the Bears hope to get any pressure on Manning using just their front four, it will have to come from Ogunleye. Tarik Glenn should be able to shut down Alex Brown. The inside of the Colts line should be able to contain Tank Johnson and Boone. What the Colts should do is keep Bryan Fletcher, a very good blocking tight end/fullback, in to help with either Ogunleye or Brown. This way, it will be easier for the Colts interior to pick up blitzes from Briggs and Urlacher. If they don’t use Fletcher, then Indy will probably chip away at Ogunleye with Rhodes or Addai. Using Fletcher would be better, but the Colts have a lot of formations that don’t keep the tight ends on the offensive line to block. The Bears cannot afford to blitz Peyton Manning repeatedly, or they’ll be playing right into the Colts’ hands. No line in football and no quarterback in football are better at picking up blitzes than Indianapolis. Which is why it is imperative that Chicago get pressure with their front four and it is so important that Ogunleye wins his matchup with Diem. If he can’t, the Bears will have to bring blitzers, leaving their secondary at great risk, or have to sit back in their cover two and get picked apart. When it comes down to it, the Colts receivers and tight ends are better than Chicago’s secondary. They are better than any team’s secondary. And this is by far the best quarterback the Bears have seen all year. Without pressure from the defensive ends, it will be a long day for the Bears.

WHEN CHICAGO HAS THE BALL…
The Bears cannot afford to become another Kansas City. We know Chicago is a run first team. We know they are afraid to use their quarterback. But if you do what the Chiefs did in the first round of the playoffs, this game won’t be close. This is not the same Colts defense of the regular season. You cannot expect to gash their running defense for five to six yards a pop anymore. To beat them on the ground, Chicago needs to emulate what the Patriots did. Use draws and delays. Don’t be afraid to run at Dwight Freeney. Don’t be afraid to run outside. Use Indianapolis’ aggressive nature against them. Chicago’s running attack is not built for finesse, but it is necessary here. Right off the two tackles are where the Colts running defense is still suspect. After they do that, the Bears can use play action (another thing they can’t do real well) to open up the passing game. Then, and only then, will the middle of the Colts defense be open for power running. For Indianapolis, the strategy is simple. Make Rex Grossman beat you. If you are Tony Dungy, you have to like the individual matchups between Chicago’s receivers and the Colts secondary. This should allow the Colts to put eight in the box against Jones and Benson. It should also give them plenty of options for different blitzes and different coverages. Stop the run early, blitz Grossman and keep an eye out for Desmond Clark over the middle, and the Colts defense should easily be able to get their offense back on the field.

Now for the pick. I made my mind up weeks ago to pick whichever team emerged from the AFC. The conference is not just better. It is overwhelmingly better. When the Eagles are your conference’s third best team, there’s a problem. No, you can’t put the Bears down for beating who they had to beat. You play who’s on the schedule. It’s not their fault they play in the NFL’s worst division in the NFL’s worst conference. But you can certainly penalize them for it. And that’s what I’m doing here. The Colts had to get through Jacksonville’s up and down season and a late Tennessee run to win their division. They had to go through Baltimore’s defense. They had to go up against their New York Yankees to get through the AFC and reach this game. If this game was played last week, and that worthless bye week didn’t occur, then maybe you could make an argument for the Colts being worn out. But not after two weeks. The Colts have been playing against better competition all year. For once, this Sunday, the Bears will have to play against better competition than the Colts will.

On top of all that, I’ve picked the Colts to win the Super Bowl since day one. I never wavered. I never changed my pick. Not when they started 9-0 and were on a pace they couldn’t keep up. Not when they got crushed by Jacksonville and gashed for almost 400 rushing yards. Not when they lost to terrible Houston. Not when they lost a first round bye. Not when they went on the road to Baltimore and had to deal with all the distractions and story lines and ghosts from their former city. Not when they had to go up against New England and another set of story lines for a team they had never beaten. No, I was picking the Colts the entire way. When everyone else outside of Indiana bailed on the Colts at one point or another during the season or the playoffs, I was there. The Chargers and LT became the sexy pick. The thugs from B’more became attractive because of their overrated defense. The Patriots were always there in the shadows, waiting for another game to be handed to them. The Saints with their flashy offense and obvious rooting interests gathered attention. But I told you over and over again. No one listened. So I get to do my “I told you so dance” that I promised I’d do after the Colts beat New England. Be glad you can’t see it because I can’t dance. But I’m doing it anyway. Now the Colts are going to prove me right. Peyton Manning is going to prove all his detractors wrong. The Indianapolis Colts are going to be your Super Bowl XLI Champions.

Pick: Colts 27, Bears 17