Maryland Basketball: The Desert Of Northern Florida

Maryland Terrapins (16-5, 2-4 ACC) at
Florida State Seminoles (15-6, 3-4 ACC)
Tallahassee-Leon County Civic Center - Tallahassee, FL

10 games left in the season and it is still abundantly clear that Maryland has to go 6-4 to finish the season. The win against Georgia Tech was nice, considering it was a game that Maryland would have probably lost the last two seasons, but it wasn’t exactly a season saver. Maryland’s next two games could very well determine the outcome of their season. This weekend, the Terps visit Winston-Salem to face a Wake Forest team that is just plain awful. There is no question that even though that game is on the road, Maryland should win it.

Which brings us to tonight’s game. Maryland goes down to Tallahassee to play a game, that on paper, looks winnable. That’s always the case when you play the Seminoles. This is a team that can’t seem to get winning ACC records with any kind of regularity (and when they do, they don’t get invites to the Big Dance for whatever reason). They never have a team stacked with ACC talent. They don’t play aggressive defense, nor do they push the ball real well. Their crowd rarely shows up, and when they do, they aren’t very loud. But for whatever reason, Florida State seems to give certain teams fits at home. Ask Duke. Or Virginia. The Seminoles have become the ACC’s version of the Arizona Cardinals. They're isolated from the rest of the conference in terms of geography. When the schedule comes out, you never mind seeing their name on it. When you’re trying to figure out how many wins your team will have, you always count FSU as one (or two…man I hate this unbalanced schedule). But you never really look forward to actually playing at Tallahassee when the time comes.

Maryland usually doesn’t have those problems. The Terps are 9-5 all-time at the TLCCC, and have won 6 of the last 8. Maryland, for the most part, has avoided the major upset and/or the debilitating season loss for a bubble team at FSU. Remember, when the Terps lost at TLCCC last season, it was neither an upset, nor a crushing season-ending defeat because Maryland’s season was already effectively over.

Playing FSU at such a critical juncture may not be the best situation for Maryland, but they have had an entire week off to fix their starting lineup and other problems. Hopefully, over the past seven days, Gary has taken a look at the film and realized that Greivis Vasquez should not be starting over or getting more minutes than Eric Hayes. After attending the Georgia Tech game in person, I am even more convinced of that than ever. Here’s the more impressive thing. The student body shared the same general consensus. I would have bet before the game that the student body, as stupid as they’ve become over past couple of years since my graduation, would have loved the flashier Vasquez over the calm and collected Hayes. But they don’t. When Vasquez was announced in the starting lineups, several fans started a “We want Hayes” chant. At the beginning of the second half, Vasquez made two terrible plays that resulted in turnovers. Again, all the fans around me wanted to see him benched and started asking for Hayes again. When Vasquez turned it over for a third time, Gary immediately (even before Georgia Tech completed their fast break layup) yanked Hayes off the bench and Vasquez out of the game. The crowd roared. So if the student body realizes how much better Hayes is for this offense, why doesn't Gary?

During the contest with the Yellow Jackets, the difference was so clear. When Hayes was in the game, the offense was efficient. Everything seemed easy. The ball didn’t hit the floor often, there were no uncomfortable 25-foot jump shots and everybody moved without the ball. You don't think James Gist scored a career high 26 points because he was creating off the dribble, do you? Most of his points were thanks in large part to plays that Hayes made to get him the ball underneath the basket for easy deuces. When Vasquez was running the show, the offense ground to a halt. It was back to the “everybody stand around and watch the ball-handler” offense of the past few years. I can’t stand that offense.

I will keep mentioning this Hayes-Vasquez differential until something is done about it. If it feels like I’m writing about it every preview, then you’re right. I am. The difference is so obvious and clear cut. I’m not saying that Vasquez shouldn’t play. He should certainly get his fair share of minutes. I don’t mind emotional players that are aggressive offensively. Every team needs one of those guys. Usually those guys come off the bench. There is no way that Vasquez should be getting 26 minutes a game and Hayes only 23.5. Hayes, who rarely picks up stupid fouls, should easily be able to handle 27-28 minutes a game. I don’t think Vasquez should be getting more than 20 minutes the game. The less time given to a freshman prone to turning the ball over, the better. Just look at the stats. During non-conference play, Vasquez outplayed Hayes. But during conference play, all of Vasquez’s numbers have gone down (except for turnovers, which have gone up) and all of Hayes’ numbers have gone up. Right now, all-around, Hayes is the better player. He’s better defensively. He’s certainly better running the point. He is a pass first player. All he needs is a little more confidence in his shot. And you know something, if he wants to make the extra pass instead of taking an open three, I really don’t mind. Get him in the starting lineup immediately.

As for Florida State, there is only one player Maryland has to concern themselves with. Al Thornton is the most dangerous player on the court for FSU. He’s 6-8, runs as quickly as most guards, and can score from anywhere. He can back down bigger forwards. He can shoot over smaller guards from the outside. His 18.2 ppg is one of the better numbers in the ACC. It’s even more impressive when you consider his supporting cast of nobodies. Isaiah Swann is the only name that anyone will recognize, but he has never lived up to his potential as one of the more highly recruited players that FSU has ever landed. In fact, along with Swann, the rest of FSU’s starting five only average 40 points a game. However, because FSU doesn’t run a lot, and their defense is above average, they are able to shorten the game and limit the number of possessions their opponents get. So despite not scoring a lot, FSU shoots a pretty high percentage from the floor and the 3-pt line. They also shoot free throws very well. If Maryland can get out and run, it’s over. But if they have to play a half court game, it’s going to be trouble.

So am I picking Maryland? No. Until they win on the road, or until they play Wake Forest on the road, I can’t take the Terps away from College Park. Here’s hoping they’ve learned something in their week long layoff.

Florida State 70
Maryland 68

Elsewhere around the ACC…

I was 3-1 last week, neglected to pick the weekend games because Maryland wasn’t playing, and ran the record up to 24-10.

TUESDAY
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
If the Bees can’t win this game, after losing at home to Virginia Tech, their season is done. At 2-5, their season is most likely over anyway, but a lose to the Freakin’ Deacons would put the nail in the coffin.
Pick: Georgia Tech 76, Wake Forest 67

WEDNESDAY
Miami at North Carolina
No team is going to beat UNC at home. Certainly not Miami. Even though this game reeks of a let down affair after UNC’s blowout road win over Arizona, there is just too much talent on the Heels for Miami to even keep this game close.
Pick: UNC 87, Miami 71

NC State at Virginia Tech
The Textile State’s other ugly sister travels to FIRST PLACE Virginia Tech. First place Virginia Tech? Gee, there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write during the last week of January.
Pick: Virginia Tech 80, NC State 63

THURSDAY
Duke at Virginia
Laugh all you want, but I really do think that Gilbert Arenas could pour in 84 to 85 points against Duke. That is, assuming he can get a set of refs that wouldn’t foul him out almost immediately (like the Duke-Arizona championship game in ’01…the second win in a row that the refs literally awarded the Dookies). His swag is so phenomenal.
Pick: Virginia 75, Duke 70