Redskins at Patriots: Imperfect Story

Washington Redskins (4-2) at New England Patriots (7-0)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Whatever is going on, or not going on, at halftime has to stop. It has to change. It’s not working. Even though I’ve been privileged enough as a member of the local sports media to attend Redskins games, sit in the press box, and have access to the field, players and coaches before and after the game, no one is allowed near the locker rooms during halftime. So the only people who know what’s going on in there are 53 players and the coaches. And they’re not telling anyone what’s happening.

Are they relaxing? Are they getting too worked up? Are they like Gilbert Arenas, playing internet poker? Do they order out for Chinese? For all we know, the real Redskins keep getting abducted at halftime and replaced by another team in similar looking uniforms. The difference with the Redskins in the first and second halves is obvious to the most casual fan. It literally looks like a different team.

Four times this year, the Redskins played with fire after halftime. Twice they’ve been burned. This past Sunday they let the match go down awfully close to their fingertips. Holding the Cardinals offense to 19 points is usually a pretty good afternoon for a defense. But not when the Cards are missing their starting quarterback, their backup quarterback is so beaten up he can only hand the ball off with one arm and the team loses two offensive linemen in the middle of the game.

So is the defense to blame? No. The defense has been playing out of its mind. This is the best job Gregg Williams has done. He has no – I repeat – no complete defensive lineman. Andre Carter is a pure pass rusher who is a liability on first and second down. Cornelius Griffin is the opposite, a great run stopper who couldn’t get to the quarterback if he started the play lined up behind center. Phillip Daniels is always hurt. And while Demetric Evans, Kedric Golston and Anthony Montgomery have all been pleasant surprises, none of them is going to be confused with a Pro-Bowler anytime soon. For crying out loud, this was a unit that couldn’t even pressure 48-year old Kurt Warner.

On top of the defensive line deficiencies, Marcus Washington has been hurt. Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers have been hurt. Shawn Springs has had to shuttle back and forth between Dallas and D.C. to be with ailing father. At safety, Gregg Williams has a rookie who is still learning where he should line up and a veteran who still makes too many aggressive mistakes. Other than London Fletcher (who is an absolute stud and will probably prove to be the best free agent signing Daniel Snyder has made) and Rocky McIntosh, there have been no consistent and reliable performers. Yet, through it all, Williams has this defense playing better than it ever has before.

The defense can’t do it all. In the second half of games, they’re on the field way too much. The offense has to have the ball for more than 13 minutes in the second half. The Cardinals, with no running game, wore the defense down. The Giants did too. Even the Lions were starting to do so until Rock Cartwright’s punt return broke their back. I know Joe Gibbs has made a living off getting an early lead and then reeling in the playbook. And that strategy can be successful (see Bill Cowher). But the offense still has to put together one or two decent drives in the second half in order for that to work. I’m not saying touchdown drives (though that would be nice), but at least drives that are going to give your defense a rest.

Offenses are too good in this day and age for teams to just sit on seven to ten point leads. Gibbs is a brilliant play-by-play tactician, but for whatever reason, his strategy for the entire 60 minutes seems to be lacking. The Skins dodged a season-ending bullet on Sunday. Next time they may not be so lucky.

Fortunately for Redskins fans, the home team was a bit lucky this past weekend. The reason that win was huge is because now the Redskins hit the road for four of their next five, and have a 4-2 record entering that stretch. A loss would have put them at .500. That would have meant the Skins would have had to beat the Eagles at home and split the four road games to realistically stay alive for a playoff berth. On top of that, they would have gone to New England at real risk of dropping under .500 for the first time this season

That brings me to the 2007 New England Patriots. Funny, I haven’t heard much about these guys. Are they any good? Is Tom Brady still their quarterback? That’s the problem with following a NFC team. You miss out on a lot of AFC games.

In all seriousness, the Patriots are a very good team. I know I bash them a lot, and I believe the points I make are valid. This is not the best team in NFL history. This is not the best team since the 49ers of the 1980’s. The Patriots are probably not even the best team in the NFL this season. Just look who they’ve played so far (more on that in a moment). However, to say that this isn’t a good team simply because they’ve played a weak schedule is foolish. This is a very good team, a team that is certainly capable of making a Super Bowl run and a team that can beat any other team in the NFL soundly if it has a good day. So far, the Patriots have had a lot of good days.

Every week I’ve reminded you about some of the defenses the Patriots have played so far. And I’ll do it again. Five of New England’s wins have come against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Miami, Buffalo and the New York Jets. Those are five of the six worst defenses in the NFL. Let me write that again so you pay attention through the unwavering hype that is coming out of Bristol. THE PATRIOTS HAVE PLAYED FIVE OF THE SIX WORST DEFENSES IN THE NFL. That isn’t my opinion. That is based on statistics.

Now, for Brady to put up 27 touchdowns in the first seven games, even against the weak competition they’ve faced, is unreal. He is a machine. This is, by far, his best season. He could crap the bed the rest of the way and would still obliterate his previous season highs. 40 points a game on any collection of NFL defenses is impressive.

My problem stems from the fact that no one is even considering the opposition the Patriots have played so far. Before we even contemplate naming the Patriots one of the best teams of all-time, isn’t a look at their schedule worthwhile? Don’t you think the level of competition has helped the Patriots on their way to a record breaking season? Don’t you think it’s easy to take chances against bad defenses? Isn’t it easier to take shots downfield, knowing that even if you turn the ball over, you can probably score on the next possession? Isn’t it easier to be more aggressive with a lead (except if you are the Redskins) and then build on that lead against bad teams, thereby feeding a circular effect that opponents haven’t been able to stop? The answer is unequivocally yes.

You’ve been brainwashed into believing the Patriots are this good. ESPN isn’t good at a lot of things anymore. Take a look at how far SportsCenter has fallen since the Dan Patrick-Craig Kilborn-Keith Olbermann-Rich Eisen glory days (how does Linda Cohn still have a job?). SC is now just a former husk of itself, complete with so many sponsers and worthless elements (Ultimate Highlight…what the hell is that?) that it has become unwatchable. However, ESPN is very good at telling you what they believe the news is. It shouldn’t work like that in sports. The news is the news, whether it’s a team in Boston or Boise. ESPN doesn’t prefer that approach. They are able to take a team, tell you how good they are, talk about them nonstop and all of a sudden, people start to believe them. Why do you think the NFL draft has become so important? Not because it actually is, but because over the course of the last 15 or so years, ESPN has led you to believe it’s important. And they’ve been remarkably successful convincing you that the only important teams reside on the East Coast or named the Dallas Cowboys. One of my favorite invented ESPN story is the assumption that Bill Belichick is running up the score every week as retribution for the punishment handed to him by the NFL for deliberately cheating. That premise is so completely ridiculous, I don’t know where to begin. Do you think if he wasn’t punished he would intentionally play close games? No, he’s scoring points because the terrible defenses they’ve played can’t stop him. What a stupid notion by ESPN. It’s just another excuse for ESPN to talk about the Patriots. Heck, take a look on what was on their front page last Sunday. Remember, there were several important division and conference showdowns. So what was the lead story?

“Leave it to the unbeaten Patriots to make news beating a winless club.”

That’s right, they led with New England. A meaningless game that was over by halftime. This is classic ESPN. What news did the Patriots make beating a winless club? THERE WAS NO NEWS. The Patriots did what everyone expected them to do. That’s like the local 6 o’clock news leading off their broadcast with a fender bender. ESPN is inventing the news so they can continue to hype up a handful of teams, trick you into caring about them, then in turn, have you watch their programming, bump up their ratings and make more money. That’s what it’s all about. The big fat dollar. Wake up people. Stop suffering from Stockholm Syndrome and realized you are being brainwashed.

On to the game. New England has played one decent team this year. That was Dallas. The score indicates they beat the Cowboys soundly, but the game was close late into the third quarter. The Patriots defense is very weak in the secondary. A good passing team, like Indianapolis, can tear this team apart. Asante Samuel is the best defensive back on this team, and he isn’t one of the top 20 corners in the NFL. Rodney Harrison is way past his prime (assuming he’s stopped using steroids). He is no longer effective in pass coverage at all. He is a liability on any passing play.

On the other side of the ball, we all know how good New England has been this year. However, I again point to the defenses they’ve faced. And have you seen some of these touchdowns on replay? Randy Moss or Donte Stallworth will catch the ball, and the defensive backs just fall down. No one seems willing to tackle these guys. No one seems willing to bump these guys at the line of scrimmage. That will not be a problem for the Redskins. The Redskins secondary, other than Carlos Rogers, are all very good tacklers. Moss and Stallworth (especially Stallworth when he was with Philly) are known to be afraid of taking big hits. In fact, most big receivers don’t like getting hit. If Brady goes over the middle early, and either Taylor or Landry light one of these suckers up, it will completely change the course of the game. Wes Welker, because he is small and used to taking big shots, scares me a lot more than either Moss or Stallworth do.

The Patriots are beatable. The Redskins certainly have the defensive backs and defensive scheme to hang around in this game. The problem is the Redskins offense. The one area where New England is obviously vulnerable is the one phase of the game the Redskins are struggling in. To take advantage of New England’s defense, you have to be able to run the ball, then go downfield for big plays against this weak secondary. The Skins haven’t been able to do either one with any consistency. If the Redskins can’t put sustained drives together, there is no way the Washington defense will be able to stay on the field all game and stop Brady. It’s not going to happen. So unless the offense suddenly steps it up, the Redskins can probably hang around for a little more than a half and will then fade away.

The Skins do catch New England at a good time. Everyone knows the most important game in the history of the Western Hemisphere is next weekend when the Patriots visit the Colts. To say this week is a trap game for New England is a huge understatement. The Patriots are 17-point favorites, at home, against a team from outside their conference, a team that has struggled the last two weeks and with a game coming up against their one main rival. This is the definition of a trap game. Plus, with all the blowouts, the Patriots haven’t been forced to play a close game into the fourth quarter. If the Redskins can keep it close for three quarters, who knows how the Patriots will come out in the fourth.

I really do see the Skins hanging tough in this one. I think it will be close. I just don’t think the Redskins can keep their defense off the field long enough. The offense is going to have a couple of back-to-back bad possessions in the second half. That will be enough. That, and the overwhelming feeling that Rogers is going to cost the Skins at least a couple of big plays. However, considering the trap game effect, and the Redskins playing with absolutely nothing to lose in a game no one expects them to win, could be the advantage Washington needs. All I know is, for the amount of hype ESPN bestows on Patriots, if the Redskins do pull out a win, ESPN better have this game in their top 10 all-time upsets. In reality, it wouldn’t be that big an upset at all. But ESPN and their sidekicks in New England don’t dwell in reality anymore.

NFL Week 8: Cheerio, You Bloody Wankers

It was about time I had a dominant week. I was a 97-yard drive and a 42-yard field goal away from being perfect. Since one of the predictions I got wrong was an Eagles win, I’ll gladly take the 11-2 mark. The record against the spread was good too. Now I can look at the overall records without wincing in pain:
Overall: 62-35 (64%)
Vs. Spread: 52-39-6

I’m looking to make it back-to-back great weeks, but I still wouldn’t recommend using these picks as the sole basis for any real, or imaginary, money wagering. If you do such a thing, I’m going to send Giant Robotic Jason Taylor after you. Seriously, how creepy is that thing? I thought we were trying to bring the NFL to London, not terrorize the British. Unless we’re planning a hostile takeover. I’d be down with that, please keep me up to date.

SUNDAY

Cleveland Browns (3-3)(-2.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-7)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I think there is much greater chance that either the Rams or Dolphins go winless than either the Patriots or Colts go undefeated. The Rams have talent, but everyone is hurt. When a team loses Orlando Pace, Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson, among others, there isn’t much that team can do. As bad as the Redskins injury situation is (and it’s starting to get pretty dire), imagine what would happen if the team lost Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis. The likelihood of a 0-10 finish to the season would be strong. Now as I go find some wood to knock on, look out for the Browns. They are about to be over .500 entering November.
Pick: Browns

Detroit Lions (4-2) vs. Chicago Bears (3-4)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Jon Kitna continues to guarantee 10 wins for the Lions this season. I’ve taken a look at the 10 remaining Lions games, and I’m guaranteeing you that Kitna is going to look like an idiot.
Pick: Bears

Indianapolis Colts (6-0)(-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-2)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
What was more impressive: the Colts thrashing of a very good Jacksonville team on the road or the Patriots beat down of a winless Miami team? The answer may seem obvious, but not if you are employed by ESPN. More on that in my Redskins preview later this week.
Pick: Colts

New York Giants (5-2)(-10) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-7)
1:00 p.m. Wembley Stadium in London, England
Blimey! This match is anything but the dog’s bollocks. The American footballers must be daft if they think they can pass this contest as entertaining. Bunch of Yanks in odd kits faffing around on a pitch? Bloody grotty if you ask me. We do like this poofy Michael Strahan fellow. His laughing gear reminds of one’s own. Next time you Yanks try to one-off us, at least give us some punters who arn’t cocked-up and worth less than a pound and pence and one’s cack in the loo.
Pick: Giants, Dolphins cover

Oakland Raiders (2-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-2)(-7)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
It’s a shame the Raiders are no longer in first place in the AFC West. I had a lot of good material for that. On the bright side, it appears that the Raiders are finally on the up and up and may become a respectable football team again. Maybe even as early as next season. Tennessee, meanwhile, gets several players back from injury this week, including Vince Young, and should get a win if they don’t overlook Oakland.
Pick: Titans

Philadelphia Eagles (2-4)(-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
1:00 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
I saw a lot media bashing towards Tarvaris Jackson this week. The question is, what took so long? No one was paying attention to the Vikings until Adrian Peterson went off against Chicago. Then everyone watched their game against Dallas. The media brainwashed you into thinking that Peterson was the best running back in the league not named LaDainian Tomlinson. So when Peterson didn’t play a starring role in the Vikings loss, and the hype turned out to be a little premature about Peterson, naturally the sports media turned their frustration on Jackson. Seems fair. Did they just discover that Jackson was starting for Minnesota? He wasn’t good last season, and he looks terrible this year. He may be the worst starter in the league.
Pick: Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Boy, did this game look like it was going to be important at the beginning of the season. Instead, the Steelers are trying to recover from an unfathomable loss to a Denver team that was about to have their season bottom out on them. The Bengals have struggled all year. Even though they beat the Jets last week, they still gave up 31 points to one of the NFL’s worst offenses. If the spread was bigger, I’d like the Bengals to cover. However, I can’t see the Bengals stopping Pittsburgh enough to get a win or beat the spread.
Pick: Steelers

Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs. New York Jets (1-6)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Giants Stadium
Speaking of the Jets, the media continues to be shocked – SHOCKED – that they are failing miserably. As I said last season, and at the beginning of this one, the Jets were extremely fortunate and played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history to win 10 games last year. I told you it wouldn’t happen again. Score one for me (two if you count how screwed the Ravens are).
Pick: Bills

Houston Texans (3-4) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)(PK)
4:05 p.m. ???
The Chargers should be thankful they aren’t playing the Giants. Otherwise the game would have been moved to East Rutherford last Monday.
Pick: Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3)(-3.5)
4:05 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As much as I like Jacksonville, and as much as I think they can be competitive in the AFC, I still think Jack Del Rio holds this team back. When David Garrard went out in the early 2nd quarter, and the Colts were only leading by a touchdown, it was the perfect time to use Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. You could make a great argument for that combination being the best one-two running back duo in the league. So what does Del Rio do? He lets Quinn Gray throw two straight passes and the second one was picked. The Colts scored after the interception and the game was never close after that. Del Rio is a good coordinator, but a poor head coach.
Pick: Jaguars

New Orleans Saints (2-4)(-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
Another shocker for the media. The 49ers, if you can believe it, are terrible. I know, I’m as stunned as you. I mean, why wouldn’t a team that hasn’t come close to a winning season in four years suddenly turn it around and make the playoffs? Man, this NFL is crazy.
Pick: Saints

MONDAY

Green Bay Packers (5-1) vs. Denver Broncos (3-3)(-4)
8:05 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
With back-to-back games in Denver and Kansas City, I’d like to think the Packers will come back down to Earth a bit. I’m just not overconfident in Jay Cutler’s ability to be consistent from week to week.
Pick: Broncos, Packers cover

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle

Later this week, the Redskins prepare for their game with the greatest team to ever step foot on a field of any type in the history of mankind. Oh no wait, I mean the 2nd best team in the NFL this season. Just a small difference.

Cardinals at Redskins: Mash Unit

Arizona Cardinals (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
After the Eagles game, when Randy Thomas was injured, I joked that Joe Bugel may want to start thinking about suiting up. That’s no longer a joke. He may actually want to put a uniform on this week.

If you are in between the ages of 22-40, taller than 6’3” and weigh around 300 pounds, the Redskins want you on their offensive line. I’d like to tell you who is injured on the o-line for the Skins, but it’s easier to tell you who is healthy. The list consists of Chris Samuels. That’s about it. And he’s still not 100% from his preseason knee injury.

Joining Thomas and Jon Jansen on the injury front is center Casey Rabach, who hurt his groin. Pete Kendall has missed practice with a knee injury. Reserve linemen Todd Wade and Stephon Heyer left the Green Bay game with mild to moderate hamstring problems.

If you don’t think the Redskins can withstand this many injuries on the line, you aren’t alone. Jansen’s injury, while unfortunate, was by no means a back-breaker. There had long been whispers around Redskins camp that Jansen had lost several steps ever since he tore his ACL a few seasons ago. The injury to Thomas hurt a lot more, since I would argue that he’s probably the second best lineman the team has (behind Rabach). It still wasn’t a season sinker. But when six – count ‘em, six – offensive lineman are on the injury report, and four of them go on the report in the course of a week, then that’s probably more than one team can deal with.

This week at practice, the Redskins lined up Samuels at left tackle as always. The rest of the line was unrecognizable. Playing center was Mike Pucillo, who has lined up more at tight end on tackle eligible plays than he has on the offensive line this season. Filling in at guard were two players from the practice squad. The right tackle was Lorenzo Alexander. Check the team roster. Alexander is listed as a defensive tackle/end.

Of the four new injuries, Kendall’s is the least concerning. He’s had shaky knees for awhile. He already returned to practice a couple of days ago and he’ll likely start on Sunday. Wade also returned to practice this week, but the Redskins would probably be better off without him. If anyone saw the Green Bay game, and the number of ways that Aaron Kampman punished Wade, then you know what I’m talking about. I know Kampman was a Pro-Bowler, but he was giving up three inches and about 50 pounds to Wade. If Kampman was just beating Wade on speed rushes, I could understand. But Wade was getting abused with straight up bull rushes too.

Rabach is the key. The Redskins need him as close to perfectly healthy as possible. It may be worth sitting him out a week to make sure he’s feeling better. Rabach is the best offensive lineman the team has. He plays the most important offensive line position. He’s a great leader, a great blocker and a great “quarterback”. He is the lineman responsible for calling out the signals to the rest of the line and changing the blocking schemes if need be. And he’s very good at it. Without him, the line is in deep trouble. And if the line is in trouble, the offense is in trouble too. It appears Rabach is slightly better than 50-50 to start this Sunday.

Now, let’s talk about the Green Bay game. I know, I really don’t want to either. The Redskins have played a total of 20 quarters (and one overtime), and the three bad quarters they’ve played have led to two losses. The Redskins should be 5-0. But they’re 3-2 instead. And even though they have played like a 5-0 team at times, you are what you’re record is. The Redskins are an above-average 3-2 team right now.

What I can’t stand is the Santana Moss bashing. True, his poor play probably cost the Skins the game. But shit happens. Think of how many games Moss has won for this team since he came here three seasons ago. The Monday night game in Dallas comes to mind. The game at home two years ago against the Giants. The win over Dallas last season. Moss has been the most productive receiver the Redskins have had since Art Monk. Think about that for a second. Do you really want to trash this guy because he has one bad game? I know, if Moss holds onto that ball instead of fumbling, the Redskins probably win because Green Bay’s offense did nothing the entire game. And once they gave up the lead, there were no lineman left to help the offensive move the ball and get it back. I understand how it works. Let it go. And while Moss certainly had a large part in the loss, losing three linemen in the same game certainly didn’t help.

I was so pumped after the Lions game because for the first time in two years, the Redskins not only held on to a first half lead, they were able to expand upon it. Halftime adjustments were the one weakness this team’s had for the last two seasons. And it looked like they had fixed the problem. The loss to Green Bay was not only deflating because the Redskins lost an opportunity to beat a decent NFC team on the road, not only because Dallas lost and the Redskins had chance to make up a game in the standings, but because the Redskins lost the game the way they’ve been losing games for the past decade. It is rare that this team ever gets blown out. But the Redskins, more often than not, continue to find new and interesting ways to lose games. Even with Moss’ problems, even with offensive linemen dropping like flies, the Redskins still should have won last week.

Now the Redskins face their first “must-win” game of the season. I know they are 3-2 and it’s only October, and in the NFC, 8-8 could get you a playoff spot. But you have to look ahead on the schedule. After this week, the Skins play 4 of their next 5 on the road. That brutal stretch begins with a trip to Foxboro. So the Redskins must win a home game and head to New England with a 4-2 record. Otherwise, they face the Patriots at .500 and with a good chance of being under .500 by the time the game is over.

So for those of you excited to see our old NFC East friends Arizona on the schedule, let me be the wet blanket. Kurt Warner will probably play Sunday. You heard it hear first. My inside information says that Warner will be listed as questionable, but there is a 90% chance he’ll play despite tearing ligaments in his non-throwing arm. If he doesn’t play, then Tim Rattay gets the nod and the entire complexion of the game changes. Rattay has been with the Cardinals for 17 days. There is no way that he’s able to run their offense yet (as evidenced by last week’s ugly loss to Carolina).

Assuming Warner starts, then this will be the best offense the Redskins have seen all year. Better than Detroit’s. The offensive line in Arizona, once a glaring weakness, has become infinitely better with former Hog Russ Grimm in charge (hey, we may want to see if ol’ Russ is ready to suit up this week). Edgerrin James’ numbers have gone up. The Boldin-Fitzgerald combination is still very effective. And now, Arizona has a defense to go along with their dangerous offense.

If anyone saw their game against the Steelers, then you would know that the Cardinals are finally playing as physical as any team in the league. You could tell the Steelers were shocked that Arizona was not only putting up a fight on the defensive front, but they were winning the battle. And, if you haven’t had the chance to watch Adrian Wilson, then you’re in for a treat this Sunday. He is the best safety in football right now. Period, end of discussion. You could make the case he’s one of the best safeties to ever play the game. If he played in a major market, he’d be a household name. I know Arizona is only 3-3 this season, but it’s not because of their defensive efforts.

It looks as if most of the Redskins line will play this week. That combined with the homefield advantage, the sour stench of last week’s loss and Arizona’s muddled quarterback situation should be enough to ensure a Redskins victory. Look for Santana Moss to have a big game. I can feel it. There is no way he has anything close to a repeat of last weekend’s performance.

If Warner plays, as expected, the Redskins should still be able to frustrate him. Off the top of my head, I can’t remember the Skins ever losing to Warner. Not when he was with St. Louis. Not when he was with New York.

I like the matchup this week, but I think it will be closer than most think (really, is there ever a Redskins game that isn’t as close as most think). A loss here will put a major dent in what was shaping up to be a promising season. The Redskins have to know who is on their schedule, and they have to have the same sense of desperation that I have.

NFL Week 7: Criminals Caught In A Trap

The record, which was slowly improving, took a hit with a 7-5 mark this past week. Even more proof that you shouldn’t use this page for gambling purposes. And I know some of you still do.
Overall: 51-33 (61%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36-6

SUNDAY

Atlanta Falcons (1-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last year, I think I was something like 3-13 picking Falcons games, which was about 50% lower than my picking success for the rest of the league. I’m 1-4 picking Saints games so far this season, officially making them my Falcons of 2007.
Pick: Saints

Baltimore Ravens (4-2)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I really thought the Ravens would be bigger favorites, which would have made what I’m about to do a huge upset pick. The Ravens are all kinds of injured – not as badly as the Redskins – but still pretty beat up. Their offensive line should have three rookies starting. Their quarterback situation is a bit unresolved. Chris McAlister will probably miss this game. On top of that, this is a classic trap game for the Criminals. First of all, they play a team coming off their bye week. The Bills have had two weeks to think about that Dallas come-from-ahead loss and prepare for an offense that isn’t that tough to figure out. After this week, the Ravens will have a bye week of their own, followed by a road trip to rival Pittsburgh, a game that the Big Ego couldn’t stop talking about this week. Finally, there’s this whole Willis McGahee returning to Buffalo after insulting the city and the team story line. The Bills locker room is filled with 53 guys who aren’t the biggest McGahee fans right now. Not to mention the 65,000 that will be in attendance. This is going to be a game the Ravens are going to regret overlooking, especially with their second-half schedule.
Pick: Bills

Minnesota Vikings (2-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-1)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
Last two weeks for Tony Romo: 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost. I know one of those games was against New England, but the other one was against Buffalo. And this guy is getting more media attention than anyone else because…?
Pick: Cowboys

New England Patriots (6-0)(-17.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Time for the weekly Patriots watch. Here are the rankings of the defenses they’ve faced so far: 11th (that’s Dallas, a defense that has yet to be exposed because of the level of competition they’ve faced so far), 15th (I’ll admit that San Diego’s D is probably better than this ranking), 28th, 30th, 31st and 32nd. Miami’s defense: 23rd. The Fins always seem to have success against Brady, so call it a hunch that New England won’t cover.
Pick: Patriots, Dolphins cover

San Francisco 49ers (2-3) vs. New York Giants (4-2)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I still can’t believe the Redskins let the Giants off the hook. That one still hurts. Now, instead of complete revolt in New Jersey, the Giants have won four in a row. Make that five.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) vs. Detroit Lions (3-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Can the Buccaneers, with no running backs, no offensive line and 49-year-old Jeff Garcia at quarterback really win this division? Considering the problems of the other three teams, there’s certainly a good chance of that happening. As for Detroit, I like them here coming off a bye week.
Pick: Lions

Tennessee Titans (3-2)(-1.5) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Whether or not Vince Young starts, you gotta like the Titans this week against a Texans team that is fading quickly into the cellar of the AFC South. And I would bet that Young plays his hometown team. Wonder if Charley Casserly will watch.
Pick: Titans

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
I’m stumped. Anyone have any idea why I should take the Chiefs on the road, or the Raiders at all? For the third straight week, the Chiefs face a team coming off their bye (welcome to the Redskins world). It didn’t seem to bother them last week. Here’s a chance for KC to get over .500, and remarkably, challenge in the weakened West.
Pick: Chiefs

New York Jets (1-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)(-6)
4:05 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I think at this point, I’m just picking the Bengals out of habit.
Pick: Bengals

Chicago Bears (2-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)(-6)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The Eagles struggled with a terrible Jets team last week but won. The Bears gave up 34 points to a Vikings team with Tarvaris Jackson at the quarterback position. Oh boy, where can I lay down money on this game?
Pick: Eagles, Bears cover

St. Louis Rams (0-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)(-8.5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
After watching the Seahawks lay two eggs in consecutive weeks, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams sneak into Seattle and steal a win. Or at the very least cover the spread. I understood Shaun Alexander’s problems last year with his variety of ailments. So what’s his excuse this year? How can he explain having a grand total of 60 yards the past two weeks?
Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (2-3)
8:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
There is always one game a week that has a very curious point spread. This seems to be the one. The Steelers are only three point favorites? I know it’s in Denver, but these Broncos have no running game (unless you count Travis Henry running from the law) and their defense is awful. Other than Champ Bailey, the entire defense consists of has-beens and never-was. Steelers big here.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Indianapolis Colts (5-0)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
8:30 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Before we hand the Colts another win, let’s pause for a second. They are facing the same Jaguars team that always, always gives them fits. Or was that another team that racked up 300 rushing yards against the Colts last season? I do think the Colts getting the bye week will be the difference in this game, as they had an extra week to prepare for a team that always seems to sneak up on them.
Pick: Colts

Bye Week: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego

Come back tomorrow as I try to figure out who is playing, and who isn't, for the Redskins and Cardinals

Redskins at Packers: Efficient, Proficient, Sufficient

Washington Redskins (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (4-1)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
As I’m sure you’ve read, I’ve said several times that Jason Campbell has done little, if anything, to prove to me that he is more than a average NFL quarterback. From time to time, he’s shown flashes of excellence. But he never had one of those “oh my goodness” games when everyone from the common fan to the former NFL player turned analyst in the booth finally see what all the fuss is about. That is, it hadn’t happened until this past weekend.

Let’s get the technicalities out of the way. It would be hypocritical of me to bash New England because they’ve played terrible defense after terrible defense and then praise Campbell without mentioning the fact that he beat up on Detroit, owners of the NFL’s fourth worst defensive unit. Most fans know that the Lions couldn’t stop a decent college team, let alone anyone in the NFL. They gave up 27 to a Bears team that can’t get out of its own way. A week after the Skins shut down the Eagles, Detroit surrendered 42 first half points, on way to a 56-21 loss at Philadelphia. The average fan would have a hard time naming four or five defenders on Detroit’s roster.

Still, Campbell went 23-29 (with two of the incompletions being drops) for an efficient 248 yards and two scores. That is more than sufficient, any way you slice it. As long as you are playing an NFL defense, 23-29 with no picks is a very, very good day. For the first time in his career, Campbell didn’t look nervous at all. He stepped up in the pocket, looked off defenders, led his receivers and rarely overthrew anyone. I don’t think he made a bad throw all day. I’m not talking about incompletions. Those happen to everyone. I’m talking about risky throws that have no business going to their intended destination. It always seemed like Campbell would have three or four of those per game, until last week. More so, he did all of this without his number one receiver for the entire game and his number two receiver for the second half. At the beginning of the third quarter, Campbell was throwing to James Thrash, Keenan McCardell and Reche Caldwell. And it didn’t seem to matter. Now, how much of that was Detroit’s crappy pass rush, or their loose zone coverage with a weak secondary? I don’t know. I’m sure it contributed to Campbell’s day. But for the first time since he began starting last season, I walked away from a game saying “Wow, we might have something here.”

As impressive as Campbell was, the defense was even better. It’s very easy for the casual fan to dismiss Campbell’s day because of the defense he was facing. And I understand that. It’s fair criticism. However, I don’t think anyone can take anything away from the job the Skins defense did. All the experts, all the news outlets, all the fans – heck, some opposing coaches – have been drooling over Detroit’s offense the past month. Do they run the ball well? No. Do they block well? No. But do the Lions typically put up a lot of yards and a lot of points. Yes on both counts. The Redskins defense held them to three points on 141 total yards. In other words, the Skins allowed Detroit to gain only about 35% of the yards they typically gain, and score about 10% of what they usually score. Impressive.

Some, in the days following the game, said that the Redskins defense didn’t do anything special. They blitzed once the entire game. They sat in a tight, basic cover 2 defense for the entire game. They didn’t stunt, they didn’t move before the snap, they didn’t give Jon Kitna and company a different look the entire game. So this must be proof that the Redskins didn’t really do anything. The Lions beat themselves. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Gregg Williams is basically one step below Brian Billick on the ego chart. He blitzes (most of the time…2006 excluded) like crazy. He has Rocky McIntosh, Sean Taylor and LaRon Landry on his roster. Three of the most aggressive defensive players in the league. For the Redskins to sit back in zone, and not blitz for the whole game, shows that Williams was able to shelve his ego (for one week at least) and the three young players were able to follow instructions and play within a non-aggressive system. That is a huge step for the Redskins defense. Taylor especially has been criticized in the past because he played with reckless abandon. He had a monster game. All of this came against one of the league’s best offenses.

It was a huge win for the Redskins, and the most impressive part about the win was the fact that the Skins didn’t fool around. It was an absolute beat down. I said before the game that the Redskins need to win two of their next three, and that was quite a way to get the first game. That doesn’t lessen the importance of this week’s game, but it takes a lot of pressure off the Redskins as they go on the road for only the second time this year.

Ok, so now it’s time for the Green Bay Packers. At 4-1, they are a bit of a surprise. Their meltdown last week against Chicago resembled the Green Bay that I expected to show up this season, but there’s still plenty of time. The Packers do own a win against the Giants (something the Redskins were unable to grab), but they’ve also beaten up on the powerhouse Vikings and Eagles in two unimpressive victories. And, as I just mentioned, an ugly home loss to a Bears team missing half of their starters.

When you talk about the Packers, you are required by law to talk about a certain player. Nick Barnett is having one heck of a season. That guy is great. I just hope he doesn’t go off against the Redskins.

What…not the right player? I guess you want me to talk about Brett Favre? YAWWWWNNNNNNN! I’m tired of talking about him. I’m tired of seeing him. I’m tired of hearing about him. I wish he would pop a few more painkillers and go crawl back to whatever hole-in-the-ground hick town he calls home and never be heard from again. Really, is that too much to ask?

As I write that, I’m sure the NFL offices in New York will force the IRS to start investigating my tax returns. How dare I, a common simpleton, say something bad about the greatest quarterback to ever play the game! Heck, maybe the greatest human being to ever walk the Earth! There must be something wrong with me if I don’t genuflect in Favre’s general direction every time I get out of bed in the morning.

I’ll readily admit that Favre is a great quarterback. No one can doubt that. No one can dispute that. But the amount of people – and these mostly genuine, smart people who know a lot about the game – that say Favre is the best quarterback of all time are nuts. Absolutely nuts. Here’s a few quarterbacks who are better: Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning (yes, I would take Manning’s career right now over Favre’s), Johnny Unitas, Sammy Baugh, Phil Simms, etc… I could go on and on and on. These quarterbacks have a lot in common with Favre. But they differ in one particular factor. None of those above quarterbacks cost their teams more than a handful of games throughout their entire careers. You can’t say that about Favre. He may cost the Packers a handful of games each season. He plays completely reckless, and you never know when a bad game is going to turn up (like last week against Chicago). To put him on a pedestal with that other group is just ignorant and incorrect. Yes, he’s thrown more touchdown passes than anyone else. But, with one more interception (and he’ll get that INT this weekend), he will have thrown more picks than any other quarterback as well. Funny, you never Fat Ass Berman gushing about that number. Based on touchdown to interception ratio, which I believe is the best way to rate quarterbacks and their impact on each and every game, Favre isn’t even close to that above group. Favre is the Adam Dunn of the NFL. Sure he hits his fair share of home runs. But he strikesout more than anyone else. And no fan in their right mind would have Adam Dunn in the top pantheon of players. So why is it that we give that luxury to Favre?

As for Favre’s team, in my mind, they are not much better than Detroit. They are basically the same team. They both play in the crummy NFC North, which tends to inflate their records and statistics. The Packers running game is actually worse than the Lions. Their passing game is about on par (the Lions were statistically better until the Redskins shut them down last week). The Packers defense is somewhat better, but not so much so that I’m really worried about it. Their generic coach Mike McCarthy doesn’t scare anyone. Basically, however Brett Favre goes, so go the Packers. He tends to play very well for a series of games, but then tends to have his bad games in bunches too. Hopefully his dreadful performance against the Bears is the start of another one of these valleys.

The Redskins had a lot of positive factors going for them last week. They came off a bye week (against a team that didn’t) and were playing one of the NFL’s worst franchises when it comes to winning on the road…just in case the 0-21 lifetime in Washington didn’t give that away. Winning on the road, especially at Green Bay, is never easy. But the Redskins should have no pressure on them. Not many expect them to win this week. However, Santana Moss returns from injury, Clinton Portis finally has a week of practice under his belt and Jason Campbell has never looked better in his young career. If this team can win at Lambeau Field, and go 4-1 on the season, I think it would be definitely time to start getting excited.

NFL Week 6: No Hype Added

Slowly starting to get a feel for 2007 with a 10-3 record last week. Let me show the slowly improving records:
Overall: 44-28 (61%)
Vs Spread: 36-31-5

As always, do not use the following for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)(-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City should win this game, but they have the unfortunate task of having to play the Bengals off their bye week. I’m really surprised the NFL continues to allow this to happen. I can’t believe no one at the NFL offices or on the NFL competition committee hasn’t suggested having teams coming off their bye weeks play other teams coming off theirs. Why can’t this be done? The NFL already manipulates their schedule to allow for flex games, premier early season games and an easy first two months for New England. Why can’t this bye week vs. non-bye week be changed too? Teams coming off their bye weeks win 72% of games against teams not coming off of one. Let’s use week 5 as case in point. The Redskins, Jaguars and Titans all beat teams that didn’t have two weeks to prepare (while the Saints lost). That pretty much is right along the 72% line that has been previously established. Here’s an idea: have eight designated bye weeks, and give all four teams in one division the same bye week. Then have those four teams play each other the following week. Doesn’t that make a lot more sense than the way it’s done now? That way it’s fair for every team. The Redskins were screwed big time last season when they had to play a record four teams coming off bye weeks. Not surprisingly, they were 0-4 in those games. Now you could say it was because the Redskins weren’t very good last year. And you’d have a point. But the Redskins also won their own game coming off a bye week against a playoff team last season. Meanwhile in 2006, five teams didn’t have to play any other team coming off their bye week (three of them made the playoffs). Fast forward to 2007, and you see that the Chiefs have to play a team coming off the bye for the second week in a row. They were steamrolled by Jacksonville last week, and they’ll probably lose again.
Pick: Bengals

Houston Texans (3-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Everyone take a quick look at the AFC South. The Texans are in last place. There’s nothing unusual about that, but their record is 3-2. When was the last time a 3-2 team occupied last place in their division by themselves. I’m willing to bet it has never happened before. Anyway, I’ve been less than thrilled with the way the Texans have played the last two weeks, and they have proven that they are still not a team to be taken seriously.
Pick: Jaguars

Miami Dolphins (0-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-3)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Anyone who thinks Trent Green was intentionally trying to aim for a defensive lineman’s legs while at the same time giving himself a severe concussion, has completely lost their grasp on reason. You really think Green meant to end his career by taking out an opposing player (and not even a good player at that) on a busted play? You think Green had that all planned out? Yeah, I’m sure he told Ten Ginn to fumble the handoff and run backwards 30 yards, just so Green could try to throw a block.
Pick: Browns

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-3)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
One of the four bye week teams won’t win or cover the spread. I think we found the one.
Pick: Bears

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)(-3) vs. New York Jets (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
At the beginning of the season, with the New England-Dallas game on CBS, this was the game that FOX had circled to be the premier game of the week. Suffice to say, with the two teams a combined 2-7, it doesn’t appear to be such a good decision by FOX.
Pick: Eagles

St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
As I’ve said before, the Ravens are one of a few teams that should never be favored by more than a touchdown. There’s no guarantee that the Ravens can even score 10 points, let alone cover a 10-point spread. As for the team itself, I’ve stated before that the Ravens would be 5-2 going into their bye week (and with St. Louis and Buffalo left, it appears pretty certain). After that, they won’t win more than three games.
Pick: Ravens, Rams cover

Tennessee Titans (3-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
This is the toughest game of the week to pick. Without a running game, I’m not sure that Jeff Garcia can carry Tampa Bay. Even at home. I expect a low-scoring game, and Vince Young will make a couple of fourth quarter plays to give Tennessee the advantage.
Pick: Titans

Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)(-4)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This has three-point game written all over it. Naturally, Vegas makes it a four point spread. I think the Cardinals are for real. Two weeks ago, they finally showed they can play physical football as they matched the Steelers play-for-play all game long. I think their defense is better than most people give them credit for. And yes, I think David Carr is that bad.
Pick: Cardinals.

New England Patriots (5-0)(-5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-0)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
I will not contribute much more to the unreasonable hype that already surrounds this game. I’ve never seen so much build up over a regular season game featuring two teams from opposite conferences. This is not an important game. This is not a college football situation where a loss means the end of your season. This is not a Super Bowl preview. This is just another game that just happens to feature two of ESPN’s Holy Quintet. I know all the big wigs at ESPN have been promoting this game non-stop since the end of Dallas’ Monday night survival. I’m sure the circle jerk has been going on in Bristol since Tuesday afternoon. But this is just another regular season game. Nothing more, nothing less. Since I have nothing else to add, let’s finish it off with my weekly Patriots opponent watch. Here are the five rankings for the defenses that the Patriots have played so far: 22nd, 28th, 30th, 31st and 32nd. That’s right, you’re not misreading it. They’ve played four of the five worst defenses in the NFL and have yet to face any defense in the top half of the league. I don’t think Dallas is much better defensively than any of the teams they’ve played so far. I’m just hoping for an ugly, low-scoring game.
Pick: Patriots

Oakland Raiders (2-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Everyone look…it’s the first place Oakland Raiders! Take a good look, because it won’t last much longer.
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover

New Orleans Saints (0-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)(-6.5)
8:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Of those four teams coming off bye weeks, I didn’t count Seattle. Supposedly they had a game last week in Pittsburgh, but they failed to show up for it.
Pick: Seahawks

MONDAY

New York Giants (3-2)(-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
8:30 p.m. Georgia Dome
Doesn’t this just seem like a game the Giants would lose? Everything has been going to well for the Giants recently. Something’s just not right. It’s about time they quit on Tom Coughlin again. I’m just too afraid to put any faith into Joey Harrington to actually pick the Falcons.
Pick: Giants

Bye Week: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Tomorrow I’ll talk about the Redskins and Packers. While it doesn’t have the hype that’s surrounding that other game, it is probably the most important game of the week. It features two of the best teams in the NFC, possibly playing for playoff positioning down the road.

Lions at Redskins: Fire Millen!

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Washington Redskins (2-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
It’s been two weeks since I’ve had to write about the Redskins, and that’s certainly a good thing. I still can’t get over the loss to New York two Sunday’s ago. How did that happen? I could understand if it was a decent team. But the Giants? Really?

As usual, too many people in the area are paying attention to the end result. In this case, that happens to be the last drive and the last series near the goal line. Almost no one is focusing on the cause. How did the Redskins fall a touchdown behind? Why were they in that situation to begin with? To hear Redskins fans talk you would think that the Skins scoring in the final seconds would have completed a miraculous come-from-behind win. Before we forget, it’s probably important to note that even if the Skins had scored in the closing seconds, it would only have tied the game. And they shouldn’t have even been in that position to begin with considering that they were up 17-3 on a Giants team that was already trying to make excuses for why they quit on their coach again.

For the first 10 quarters of the season, the Redskins offense was functioning well. No, they weren’t carving up the turf, but the play-calling was great and the execution was good enough. A lot of heavy running, short passes and the occasional downfield shot are what we saw…but in no real predictable order. Typical Joe Gibbs offense. Then all of a sudden, that offense disappeared. Back to the predictable running plays off tackle and the third and longs with only one real deep threat. The result was also predicable. Three and outs, followed by punts, loss of field position and a tired defense. Why this occurred, I don’t know. I can’t tell you what was going on in the minds of Gibbs and Al Saunders. All I know is that as soon as the play-calling turned ugly, the game turned as well. And the 2007 Redskins, which for 10 quarters looked like a team capable of challenging for the division, turned into the 2006 Redskins and became unable to hold a substantial second half lead.

I’m not ignoring the bizarre set of circumstances around the goal line on the last drive. Certainly the Redskins should have scored. I had no problem with spiking the ball on first down (remember, they had no timeouts and only 50 seconds…it’s better to get three good plays off than rush a first down play an have a turnover because no one knows what’s going on) or going play-action on second. Yes, Mike Sellers should have made that catch, but he probably wouldn’t have scored because Kawika Mitchell was waiting for him. Still though, the idea of rolling Jason Campbell out and letting him see the entire field was a good call.

Now, I had no problem with the Skins running on either third or fourth down. But the big question all week is why Clinton Portis wasn’t the guy getting the ball. I think it’s clear, at least for anyone who knows how Gibbs works, that Portis’ fumble early in the fourth quarter led to his benching in the last few series of the game. Which is a bad move on Gibbs’ part. Portis did make a mistake by dropping a handoff. But you don’t take out your best player in a last second situation. Make him run laps the next day at practice. Don’t hurt the team by going to Ladell Betts who has done absolutely nothing all year. I’m sure Michael Jordan missed his fair share of last second shots, but I guarantee you Phil Jackson wouldn’t give the ball to Horace Grant in the next game.

Even if Portis was allowed to play, neither he nor Betts should have had the ball. Let Sellers pound it in. Heck, let Jason Campbell, who is a 6-5 truck of a quarterback, get two shots on QB sneaks from one-yard out. I hate those stretch run plays on the goal line. Especially because Betts is a good straight-away runner. Everyone is in the box for the defense on the goal line, who are you trying to fool?

My Redskins friends have tried to see the glass half full. At the beginning of the season, we all said if the Redskins go 2-1 into their bye week, they’d be in good shape. Lo and behold, they are 2-1. But I think most fans figured the Skins would beat Miami and New York while losing in Philadelphia. I don’t think many fans had the Skins at 2-0 going into their game with the Giants. Talk about having the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. They had a real shot to go 3-0, and put the Giants at 0-3. They would have kept pace with Dallas and virtually ended the Giants season in the span of one afternoon. And they should have. It’s not like the Giants came into Landover and dominated all afternoon. The Redskins basically handed them a win on a silver platter.

Now the Redskins enter a very crucial part of their schedule. After this week’s game, five of the next seven are on the road. These next three games are going to determine the path of the season. With two home games against Detroit and Arizona, with a road trip to Green Bay sandwiched in between, the Redskins MUST win two of the next three games before taking a trip to Foxboro. At the beginning of the season, the typical fan looked at the schedule, saw games against Detroit, Green Bay, Arizona, Tampa Bay and New York and basically penciled them in as wins. That isn’t the case anymore. All those teams are better than expected. The Skins are really going to have to earn two wins somewhere in this span. Facing New England with anything less than a 4-2 record is not a scenario that anyone wants to face. Not to mention the fact that if the Redskins are going to compete for a playoff spot, they may want to start beating NFC teams, especially two teams (Green Bay and Detroit) that they may need tiebreakers against down the road.

Yesterday, I talked about the bizarre NFC South streak where the last place team finishes first the next season, and has done so the past four years. That’s a great fluky streak and all, but how about this number. The Redskins are 20-0 against Detroit at home. 20-0. I have beaten the Redskins in Washington as many times as the Lions have. Most of those wins came when the Lions were actually good. While that seems like a lifetime ago, it’s only been about 10 years. Not too long ago, the Lions had this guy named Barry Sanders. You may have heard of him. Even during the glory days with Sanders, Herman Moore and Brett Perriman the Lions weren’t able to win in D.C. That 20-0 even includes two blowout losses in the playoffs (yes, the Lions actually made the playoffs once upon a time).

This 3-1 start not withstanding, the Lions are one of the most pathetic franchises in NFL history. They haven’t won a championship since the 1950’s. They have never appeared in a Super Bowl, let alone won one. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1991. They haven’t appeared in the playoffs since the Redskins dismissed them in the first round of the 2000 postseason. Detroit, Buffalo and Houston are the only teams that haven’t made the playoffs in millennium.

So when Jon Kitna said before the season that the Lions would win 10 games and make the playoffs, I’m sure there was a lot of laughter around the NFL nation. We had been down this road the last couple of years. Detroit drafts a wide receiver, all the analysts look at how stacked their offense is (while conveniently forgetting how bad the defense is) and everyone picks them to be a darkhorse in the NFC. Only to have the Lions go belly-up by week five and finish somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-12. So a bold prediction from Kitna was used as another excuse to bash the Lions and Matt Millen (I apologize for the title of the post, I know it’s a little late to jump on that bandwagon. I’ve always wanted to use that title but haven’t had the chance because the Skins haven’t faced the Lions in three years).

However, through the first quarter of the season, the Lions have set a 12-4 pace. On top of that, the Bears have fallen apart, and the only thing standing in Detroit’s way of challenging for the awful NFC North title is #4 in green and gold. And it’s only a matter of time before Mr. Favre starts throwing interceptions as quickly as he consumes painkillers. So because of the sudden emergence of the passing game, and the crapulence of the North, Detroit actually looks like – insert joke here – a playoff-caliber team. At least until you look at the fine print.

Two of the Lions three wins have come against the North. And both were one-score wins against the two bottom teams in the NFL’s worst division. The other win came against Oakland. Sure the Raiders have improved, but they’re still no better than a six or seven win team. So to say that Detroit has played the Sister’s of the Poor is an understatement. Their one loss came to Philadelphia, which right now, is no better than any of the three teams that Detroit has beaten. The week following the Redskins Monday night win, the Eagles put up 42 first half points on their way to a 56-21 victory over the Lions.

We all know about Detroit’s passing game. The Jon Kitna-Roy Willams passing connection is legit. It may be one of the top five combos in the league. But this question has been asked before. Besides Kitna and Williams, what else does Detroit have? They statistically have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (again). The offensive line is as bad as it’s always been. There is no running game to speak of. The real question is not whether the Lions are for real, because they aren’t. The real question is when will the rest of the league realize that this is, in every sense of the term, a one-dimensional team. This team does one thing well, and only one thing well. That’s pass the ball. A good team should be able to beat them easily.

The Redskins will have Clinton Portis (knee sprain), but probably won’t have Santana Moss. That really hurts because this is a game that Moss could just go off. Detroit has nothing in the secondary. I might as well be playing out there. Still, the Redskins will have the Portis-Betts combination, and that should be the emphasis for the offense. The more they run, the longer Kitna and company stand on the sideline. Even the Redskins offense, despite not having Santana, should be able score early and often against this ragtag group. As for the defense, it will be a challenge. Williams and his fellow receivers will get theirs. Giving up 21-28 points would be a victory for the D, because the Redskins would still be in position to win the game. Despite Detroit’s gaudy offensive numbers and 3-1 record, this is a game the Redskins should win. If the Redskins want to be taken seriously, they have to start winning easy home games.

NFL Week 5: Rank Defenses

While my record against the spread improved, the overall record continues to suffer with a lot of tough games in the early season.
Overall: 34-25 (58%)
Vs. Spread: 30-26-3

SUNDAY

Carolina Panthers (2-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Let the impossible games continue. Really, is there any way that anyone could say this game is less than 50-50 for either team. On one side, you have David Carr, who was wearing white gloves last week at home against Tampa. Forget for a second that the game time temperature was around 70 degrees. It looked like he should be on a golf course or ballroom dancing. The last quarterback who wore gloves in all conditions was Danny Wuerffel. You saw how well things worked out for him. As for the Saints, they looked completely shocked two Monday nights ago, and it doesn’t seem that anyone has any clue what is going on. Still, I think the fact Carr is starting again makes this pick somewhat easier.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)(-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Picking against Kansas City in Arrowhead is never a smart thing to do. Especially with a Jacksonville team that is better than the Chiefs, and always loses to overmatched opponents. I never learn.
Pick: Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The Titans appear to be the complete opposite of the Saints at this point, and it was no more obvious than two Monday nights ago. This is a young team brimming with confidence, and they’ve been given two weeks to prepare for a team that they probably don’t need more than two days to get ready for.
Pick: Titans

Miami Dolphins (0-4) vs. Houston Texans (2-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Field
As I said last week, if we are going to consider the Texans a legitimate contender, then it isn’t about how well and tough they play the Colts. It’s about whether they can take care of business against teams like the Dolphins. Or the Falcons. They failed miserably last week.
Pick: Texans

Seattle Seahawks (3-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
A rematch of Super Bowl XL brings two of my favorite teams this season together. Both team have lost only once, and oddly enough, they both lost on the road to the Cardinals. Excluding those two contests (In which Pittsburgh was shocked to see the Cards matching them physically across the board and in which the Seahawks lost on the road to a division opponent…no shame in that) both of these squads have looked very strong. They keep this up and they’ll both get another shot at winning in Glendale.
Pick: Steelers, Seahawks cover

Cleveland Browns (2-2) vs. New England Patriots (4-0)(-15)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Like I did last week, until the Patriots play a real team, I’ll just keep throwing out the stats of the crummy teams they’ve been playing. You know, just to even out the undeserved amounts of love they’re getting nationally for beating weak links. Here are the statistical rankings of the defenses they’ve played so far: 25th, 28th, 30th and 32nd. As for the Browns ranking: 31st. Never ceases to amaze me how the NFL offices will coddle their favorite teams with generous scheduling.
Pick: Patriots

New York Jets (1-3) vs. New York Giants (2-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Oh God, can I pick and root for a stadium collapse?
Pick: Giants

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)(-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Norv Turner is a head coach and Gus Frerotte is a starting quarterback in the NFL. It’s official: we’ve unknowingly traveled back in time to the mid-90’s. I guess I’ll go find my pogs and do the Macarena.
Pick: Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-0)(-9)
4:05 p.m. RCA Dome
I love Tony Kornheiser on PTI. I love him when he’s on his radio show. I love his columns, when he actually finds time to write one nowadays. I just can’t stand him on Monday Night Football. But, I did find it interesting when he pulled out the bit about the last place team in the NFC South winning the division the following season for the past four years. You have to admit, that’s a little freaky. And it looks as if Tampa Bay is poised to make it five in a row. If nothing else, I like a good, strange, random streak as much as the next guy (except the one with the Redskins determining who the next President would be…I found that one pretty stupid). The Colts may beat Tampa soundly, but who in their division can do the same thing?
Pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (1-3) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2)(PK)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
The good news for the Chargers is the state of the AFC West. The Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs are all 2-2, and San Diego is only one measly game behind all of them. A win here, and they’d only be a half game behind Oakland. 10-6 or 9-7 could win this division.
Pick: Chargers

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)(-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
I’m dubbing this one the Overrated Bowl. The Ravens, a trendy Super Bowl pick, are every bit as bad as I said they would be at the beginning of the season. Offensively, they can’t move the ball more than once or twice per game. The playcalling from the Big Ego has been as bad as it has ever been. Defensively, they just gave up 27 points to the Browns. The Browns! The 49ers, the trendy darkhorse pick, are every bit as inexperienced and poorly coached as I said they would be at the beginning of the season. On top of all their personnel problems, the injuries are starting to pile up for Frisco. Which ever team I pick, I guarantee you I’ll be wrong. The case can be made for the Ravens winning on the road against a terrible offensive team with its starting quarterback done for the season. The case can be made for the 49ers winning against a strictly mediocre team having to travel 3,000 miles on a short week. I guess I’ll root for Trent Dilfer to get his revenge against Billick and the Criminals.
Pick: 49ers

Chicago Bears (1-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-0)(-3)
8:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I keep hearing the ESPN stooges ask their experts which team is in a worse situation…the Chargers or the Bears? Inevitably, the “experts” always say the Chargers, because the Bears play in the inferior NFC. Am I missing something here? Have these idiots taken a look at the standings recently? The Chargers are currently one game out of first place in their division. The Bears are three games back, and likely to be four full games behind after this weekend.
Pick: Packers

MONDAY

Dallas Cowboys (4-0)(-10) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Like New England, Dallas hasn’t faced anyone all that great yet. Here are the defensive teams they’ve faced so far (in terms of statistical rankings): 15th, 17th, 22nd and 24th. Buffalo’s ranking: 32nd. And if you are already growing tired of hearing about next week’s Dallas-New England game, despite the fact that it is still 10 days away and nothing more than an ordinary regular season contest, I have one word for you: run. It’s only going to get worse for the next week-and-a-half.
Pick: Cowboys

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia

Tomorrow I’m forced to talk about the Redskins. Come back and see how many times I use the word choke to describe their performance two weeks ago.