NFL Week 7: Criminals Caught In A Trap

The record, which was slowly improving, took a hit with a 7-5 mark this past week. Even more proof that you shouldn’t use this page for gambling purposes. And I know some of you still do.
Overall: 51-33 (61%)
Vs. Spread: 42-36-6

SUNDAY

Atlanta Falcons (1-5) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Last year, I think I was something like 3-13 picking Falcons games, which was about 50% lower than my picking success for the rest of the league. I’m 1-4 picking Saints games so far this season, officially making them my Falcons of 2007.
Pick: Saints

Baltimore Ravens (4-2)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
I really thought the Ravens would be bigger favorites, which would have made what I’m about to do a huge upset pick. The Ravens are all kinds of injured – not as badly as the Redskins – but still pretty beat up. Their offensive line should have three rookies starting. Their quarterback situation is a bit unresolved. Chris McAlister will probably miss this game. On top of that, this is a classic trap game for the Criminals. First of all, they play a team coming off their bye week. The Bills have had two weeks to think about that Dallas come-from-ahead loss and prepare for an offense that isn’t that tough to figure out. After this week, the Ravens will have a bye week of their own, followed by a road trip to rival Pittsburgh, a game that the Big Ego couldn’t stop talking about this week. Finally, there’s this whole Willis McGahee returning to Buffalo after insulting the city and the team story line. The Bills locker room is filled with 53 guys who aren’t the biggest McGahee fans right now. Not to mention the 65,000 that will be in attendance. This is going to be a game the Ravens are going to regret overlooking, especially with their second-half schedule.
Pick: Bills

Minnesota Vikings (2-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-1)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Texas Stadium
Last two weeks for Tony Romo: 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost. I know one of those games was against New England, but the other one was against Buffalo. And this guy is getting more media attention than anyone else because…?
Pick: Cowboys

New England Patriots (6-0)(-17.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Dolphins Stadium
Time for the weekly Patriots watch. Here are the rankings of the defenses they’ve faced so far: 11th (that’s Dallas, a defense that has yet to be exposed because of the level of competition they’ve faced so far), 15th (I’ll admit that San Diego’s D is probably better than this ranking), 28th, 30th, 31st and 32nd. Miami’s defense: 23rd. The Fins always seem to have success against Brady, so call it a hunch that New England won’t cover.
Pick: Patriots, Dolphins cover

San Francisco 49ers (2-3) vs. New York Giants (4-2)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I still can’t believe the Redskins let the Giants off the hook. That one still hurts. Now, instead of complete revolt in New Jersey, the Giants have won four in a row. Make that five.
Pick: Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) vs. Detroit Lions (3-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Can the Buccaneers, with no running backs, no offensive line and 49-year-old Jeff Garcia at quarterback really win this division? Considering the problems of the other three teams, there’s certainly a good chance of that happening. As for Detroit, I like them here coming off a bye week.
Pick: Lions

Tennessee Titans (3-2)(-1.5) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Whether or not Vince Young starts, you gotta like the Titans this week against a Texans team that is fading quickly into the cellar of the AFC South. And I would bet that Young plays his hometown team. Wonder if Charley Casserly will watch.
Pick: Titans

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
I’m stumped. Anyone have any idea why I should take the Chiefs on the road, or the Raiders at all? For the third straight week, the Chiefs face a team coming off their bye (welcome to the Redskins world). It didn’t seem to bother them last week. Here’s a chance for KC to get over .500, and remarkably, challenge in the weakened West.
Pick: Chiefs

New York Jets (1-5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)(-6)
4:05 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I think at this point, I’m just picking the Bengals out of habit.
Pick: Bengals

Chicago Bears (2-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)(-6)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
The Eagles struggled with a terrible Jets team last week but won. The Bears gave up 34 points to a Vikings team with Tarvaris Jackson at the quarterback position. Oh boy, where can I lay down money on this game?
Pick: Eagles, Bears cover

St. Louis Rams (0-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)(-8.5)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
After watching the Seahawks lay two eggs in consecutive weeks, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Rams sneak into Seattle and steal a win. Or at the very least cover the spread. I understood Shaun Alexander’s problems last year with his variety of ailments. So what’s his excuse this year? How can he explain having a grand total of 60 yards the past two weeks?
Pick: Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (2-3)
8:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
There is always one game a week that has a very curious point spread. This seems to be the one. The Steelers are only three point favorites? I know it’s in Denver, but these Broncos have no running game (unless you count Travis Henry running from the law) and their defense is awful. Other than Champ Bailey, the entire defense consists of has-beens and never-was. Steelers big here.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Indianapolis Colts (5-0)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)
8:30 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Before we hand the Colts another win, let’s pause for a second. They are facing the same Jaguars team that always, always gives them fits. Or was that another team that racked up 300 rushing yards against the Colts last season? I do think the Colts getting the bye week will be the difference in this game, as they had an extra week to prepare for a team that always seems to sneak up on them.
Pick: Colts

Bye Week: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, San Diego

Come back tomorrow as I try to figure out who is playing, and who isn't, for the Redskins and Cardinals