NFL Week 5: Rank Defenses

While my record against the spread improved, the overall record continues to suffer with a lot of tough games in the early season.
Overall: 34-25 (58%)
Vs. Spread: 30-26-3

SUNDAY

Carolina Panthers (2-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. New Orleans Superdome
Let the impossible games continue. Really, is there any way that anyone could say this game is less than 50-50 for either team. On one side, you have David Carr, who was wearing white gloves last week at home against Tampa. Forget for a second that the game time temperature was around 70 degrees. It looked like he should be on a golf course or ballroom dancing. The last quarterback who wore gloves in all conditions was Danny Wuerffel. You saw how well things worked out for him. As for the Saints, they looked completely shocked two Monday nights ago, and it doesn’t seem that anyone has any clue what is going on. Still, I think the fact Carr is starting again makes this pick somewhat easier.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)(-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Picking against Kansas City in Arrowhead is never a smart thing to do. Especially with a Jacksonville team that is better than the Chiefs, and always loses to overmatched opponents. I never learn.
Pick: Jaguars

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The Titans appear to be the complete opposite of the Saints at this point, and it was no more obvious than two Monday nights ago. This is a young team brimming with confidence, and they’ve been given two weeks to prepare for a team that they probably don’t need more than two days to get ready for.
Pick: Titans

Miami Dolphins (0-4) vs. Houston Texans (2-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Field
As I said last week, if we are going to consider the Texans a legitimate contender, then it isn’t about how well and tough they play the Colts. It’s about whether they can take care of business against teams like the Dolphins. Or the Falcons. They failed miserably last week.
Pick: Texans

Seattle Seahawks (3-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
A rematch of Super Bowl XL brings two of my favorite teams this season together. Both team have lost only once, and oddly enough, they both lost on the road to the Cardinals. Excluding those two contests (In which Pittsburgh was shocked to see the Cards matching them physically across the board and in which the Seahawks lost on the road to a division opponent…no shame in that) both of these squads have looked very strong. They keep this up and they’ll both get another shot at winning in Glendale.
Pick: Steelers, Seahawks cover

Cleveland Browns (2-2) vs. New England Patriots (4-0)(-15)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Like I did last week, until the Patriots play a real team, I’ll just keep throwing out the stats of the crummy teams they’ve been playing. You know, just to even out the undeserved amounts of love they’re getting nationally for beating weak links. Here are the statistical rankings of the defenses they’ve played so far: 25th, 28th, 30th and 32nd. As for the Browns ranking: 31st. Never ceases to amaze me how the NFL offices will coddle their favorite teams with generous scheduling.
Pick: Patriots

New York Jets (1-3) vs. New York Giants (2-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Oh God, can I pick and root for a stadium collapse?
Pick: Giants

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)(-3) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Norv Turner is a head coach and Gus Frerotte is a starting quarterback in the NFL. It’s official: we’ve unknowingly traveled back in time to the mid-90’s. I guess I’ll go find my pogs and do the Macarena.
Pick: Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-0)(-9)
4:05 p.m. RCA Dome
I love Tony Kornheiser on PTI. I love him when he’s on his radio show. I love his columns, when he actually finds time to write one nowadays. I just can’t stand him on Monday Night Football. But, I did find it interesting when he pulled out the bit about the last place team in the NFC South winning the division the following season for the past four years. You have to admit, that’s a little freaky. And it looks as if Tampa Bay is poised to make it five in a row. If nothing else, I like a good, strange, random streak as much as the next guy (except the one with the Redskins determining who the next President would be…I found that one pretty stupid). The Colts may beat Tampa soundly, but who in their division can do the same thing?
Pick: Colts

San Diego Chargers (1-3) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2)(PK)
4:15 p.m. Invesco Field at Mile High
The good news for the Chargers is the state of the AFC West. The Broncos, Raiders and Chiefs are all 2-2, and San Diego is only one measly game behind all of them. A win here, and they’d only be a half game behind Oakland. 10-6 or 9-7 could win this division.
Pick: Chargers

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)(-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
4:15 p.m. Monster Park
I’m dubbing this one the Overrated Bowl. The Ravens, a trendy Super Bowl pick, are every bit as bad as I said they would be at the beginning of the season. Offensively, they can’t move the ball more than once or twice per game. The playcalling from the Big Ego has been as bad as it has ever been. Defensively, they just gave up 27 points to the Browns. The Browns! The 49ers, the trendy darkhorse pick, are every bit as inexperienced and poorly coached as I said they would be at the beginning of the season. On top of all their personnel problems, the injuries are starting to pile up for Frisco. Which ever team I pick, I guarantee you I’ll be wrong. The case can be made for the Ravens winning on the road against a terrible offensive team with its starting quarterback done for the season. The case can be made for the 49ers winning against a strictly mediocre team having to travel 3,000 miles on a short week. I guess I’ll root for Trent Dilfer to get his revenge against Billick and the Criminals.
Pick: 49ers

Chicago Bears (1-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-0)(-3)
8:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I keep hearing the ESPN stooges ask their experts which team is in a worse situation…the Chargers or the Bears? Inevitably, the “experts” always say the Chargers, because the Bears play in the inferior NFC. Am I missing something here? Have these idiots taken a look at the standings recently? The Chargers are currently one game out of first place in their division. The Bears are three games back, and likely to be four full games behind after this weekend.
Pick: Packers

MONDAY

Dallas Cowboys (4-0)(-10) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Like New England, Dallas hasn’t faced anyone all that great yet. Here are the defensive teams they’ve faced so far (in terms of statistical rankings): 15th, 17th, 22nd and 24th. Buffalo’s ranking: 32nd. And if you are already growing tired of hearing about next week’s Dallas-New England game, despite the fact that it is still 10 days away and nothing more than an ordinary regular season contest, I have one word for you: run. It’s only going to get worse for the next week-and-a-half.
Pick: Cowboys

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Oakland, Philadelphia

Tomorrow I’m forced to talk about the Redskins. Come back and see how many times I use the word choke to describe their performance two weeks ago.