NFL Week 6: No Hype Added

Slowly starting to get a feel for 2007 with a 10-3 record last week. Let me show the slowly improving records:
Overall: 44-28 (61%)
Vs Spread: 36-31-5

As always, do not use the following for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)(-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City should win this game, but they have the unfortunate task of having to play the Bengals off their bye week. I’m really surprised the NFL continues to allow this to happen. I can’t believe no one at the NFL offices or on the NFL competition committee hasn’t suggested having teams coming off their bye weeks play other teams coming off theirs. Why can’t this be done? The NFL already manipulates their schedule to allow for flex games, premier early season games and an easy first two months for New England. Why can’t this bye week vs. non-bye week be changed too? Teams coming off their bye weeks win 72% of games against teams not coming off of one. Let’s use week 5 as case in point. The Redskins, Jaguars and Titans all beat teams that didn’t have two weeks to prepare (while the Saints lost). That pretty much is right along the 72% line that has been previously established. Here’s an idea: have eight designated bye weeks, and give all four teams in one division the same bye week. Then have those four teams play each other the following week. Doesn’t that make a lot more sense than the way it’s done now? That way it’s fair for every team. The Redskins were screwed big time last season when they had to play a record four teams coming off bye weeks. Not surprisingly, they were 0-4 in those games. Now you could say it was because the Redskins weren’t very good last year. And you’d have a point. But the Redskins also won their own game coming off a bye week against a playoff team last season. Meanwhile in 2006, five teams didn’t have to play any other team coming off their bye week (three of them made the playoffs). Fast forward to 2007, and you see that the Chiefs have to play a team coming off the bye for the second week in a row. They were steamrolled by Jacksonville last week, and they’ll probably lose again.
Pick: Bengals

Houston Texans (3-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Alltell Stadium
Everyone take a quick look at the AFC South. The Texans are in last place. There’s nothing unusual about that, but their record is 3-2. When was the last time a 3-2 team occupied last place in their division by themselves. I’m willing to bet it has never happened before. Anyway, I’ve been less than thrilled with the way the Texans have played the last two weeks, and they have proven that they are still not a team to be taken seriously.
Pick: Jaguars

Miami Dolphins (0-5) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-3)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
Anyone who thinks Trent Green was intentionally trying to aim for a defensive lineman’s legs while at the same time giving himself a severe concussion, has completely lost their grasp on reason. You really think Green meant to end his career by taking out an opposing player (and not even a good player at that) on a busted play? You think Green had that all planned out? Yeah, I’m sure he told Ten Ginn to fumble the handoff and run backwards 30 yards, just so Green could try to throw a block.
Pick: Browns

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) vs. Chicago Bears (2-3)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
One of the four bye week teams won’t win or cover the spread. I think we found the one.
Pick: Bears

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)(-3) vs. New York Jets (1-4)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
At the beginning of the season, with the New England-Dallas game on CBS, this was the game that FOX had circled to be the premier game of the week. Suffice to say, with the two teams a combined 2-7, it doesn’t appear to be such a good decision by FOX.
Pick: Eagles

St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
As I’ve said before, the Ravens are one of a few teams that should never be favored by more than a touchdown. There’s no guarantee that the Ravens can even score 10 points, let alone cover a 10-point spread. As for the team itself, I’ve stated before that the Ravens would be 5-2 going into their bye week (and with St. Louis and Buffalo left, it appears pretty certain). After that, they won’t win more than three games.
Pick: Ravens, Rams cover

Tennessee Titans (3-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
This is the toughest game of the week to pick. Without a running game, I’m not sure that Jeff Garcia can carry Tampa Bay. Even at home. I expect a low-scoring game, and Vince Young will make a couple of fourth quarter plays to give Tennessee the advantage.
Pick: Titans

Carolina Panthers (3-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)(-4)
4:05 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This has three-point game written all over it. Naturally, Vegas makes it a four point spread. I think the Cardinals are for real. Two weeks ago, they finally showed they can play physical football as they matched the Steelers play-for-play all game long. I think their defense is better than most people give them credit for. And yes, I think David Carr is that bad.
Pick: Cardinals.

New England Patriots (5-0)(-5.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-0)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
I will not contribute much more to the unreasonable hype that already surrounds this game. I’ve never seen so much build up over a regular season game featuring two teams from opposite conferences. This is not an important game. This is not a college football situation where a loss means the end of your season. This is not a Super Bowl preview. This is just another game that just happens to feature two of ESPN’s Holy Quintet. I know all the big wigs at ESPN have been promoting this game non-stop since the end of Dallas’ Monday night survival. I’m sure the circle jerk has been going on in Bristol since Tuesday afternoon. But this is just another regular season game. Nothing more, nothing less. Since I have nothing else to add, let’s finish it off with my weekly Patriots opponent watch. Here are the five rankings for the defenses that the Patriots have played so far: 22nd, 28th, 30th, 31st and 32nd. That’s right, you’re not misreading it. They’ve played four of the five worst defenses in the NFL and have yet to face any defense in the top half of the league. I don’t think Dallas is much better defensively than any of the teams they’ve played so far. I’m just hoping for an ugly, low-scoring game.
Pick: Patriots

Oakland Raiders (2-2) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Everyone look…it’s the first place Oakland Raiders! Take a good look, because it won’t last much longer.
Pick: Chargers, Raiders cover

New Orleans Saints (0-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (3-2)(-6.5)
8:15 p.m. Qwest Field
Of those four teams coming off bye weeks, I didn’t count Seattle. Supposedly they had a game last week in Pittsburgh, but they failed to show up for it.
Pick: Seahawks

MONDAY

New York Giants (3-2)(-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-4)
8:30 p.m. Georgia Dome
Doesn’t this just seem like a game the Giants would lose? Everything has been going to well for the Giants recently. Something’s just not right. It’s about time they quit on Tom Coughlin again. I’m just too afraid to put any faith into Joey Harrington to actually pick the Falcons.
Pick: Giants

Bye Week: Buffalo, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Tomorrow I’ll talk about the Redskins and Packers. While it doesn’t have the hype that’s surrounding that other game, it is probably the most important game of the week. It features two of the best teams in the NFC, possibly playing for playoff positioning down the road.