Redskins at Vikings: Ship Shape Scenarios

Washington Redskins (7-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-6)
8:15 p.m. H.H.H. Metrodome
For those wondering, or too lazy to look it up, I’ll just quickly recap the playoff situation for the Redskins. The Redskins are currently 7-7. They are tied with New Orleans, a game behind Minnesota and two games behind the Giants.

Let’s start with the easiest explanation. If the Redskins lose to Minnesota, they’re eliminated since they would be two games behind the Giants and Vikings with only one game to play. Kind of hard to make up that difference.

However, if the Redskins beat Minnesota, they would have the good fortune of owning two tiebreakers. They would obviously own the head-to-head with Minnesota. Also, if the Giants were to lose out to Buffalo and New England (a distinct possibility), the Redskins would also own the tiebreaker with New York based on record against common opponents. That’s the fourth tiebreaker on the NFL’s list. The Redskins would not own the tiebreaker with New Orleans because the Saints have a better conference record.

The Saints actually own the tiebreaker with the three other teams based on conference record. So despite being 7-7, New Orleans is in decent shape with both an easy schedule and all the tiebreakers. The Vikings own the tiebreaker over the Giants based on their 41-17 beatdown in the Meadowlands last month. The Giants own no tiebreakers. If they lose their last two games, they are in big trouble. The best case scenario for New York in the case of two losses would be clinching the sixth seed and having to travel across country to Seattle to lose in the first round of the playoffs. The worst case involves Tom Coughlin being run out of town with thousands of angry, torch-wielding fans following him. I kind of like the worst case scenario.

All four teams have legitimate shots at the playoffs. The Vikings and Giants are better off because of their record, but the Saints and Redskins (if the Redskins win this weekend) would own all the tiebreakers. If this doesn’t make any sense to you, don’t worry. By this time next week it will.

Now, the real problem for the Redskins are the teams remaining on their schedule. The trip to Minnesota looked like the tougher of the two a week ago. The home game against Dallas probably would have meant very little to the Cowboys since they would have already clinched home field. That was until Tony Romo had a booboo on this thumb and the Eagles, after 14 games, decided to start playing like a real football team again. Now Dallas will probably have to win out to get homefield advantage, which means the finale in D.C. will mean something for both teams.

Time for the Redskins to put on the snow tires, keep Fred Smoot away from all boats and head to the Great White North. Hopefully the Redskins aren’t paying attention to the Dallas game, because they have a real test under the dome this weekend. The Minnesota Vikings have salvaged their 3-6 season with five straight wins. It’s not exactly like Minnesota has been beating great competition. Other than their win in the Meadowlands, the other four victories came against Oakland, Detroit, San Francisco and Chicago. But other than the game last Monday against Chicago, the Vikings are beating these teams soundly and convincingly. Something that the Redskins could learn from.

The reason I like Minnesota is their strategy of team-building. After Daunte Culpepper’s injury and Randy Moss’ exodus a couple of season’s ago, the Vikings appeared to looking at a lengthy rebuilding process. However, the Vikings didn’t go after splashy offseason signings. They went after offensive and defensive lineman. Minnesota started by rebuilding the team up front, then added pieces behind them. It is so rare to see a team do this in the NFL anymore. But it’s the reason the Vikings are 8-6 and in the middle of the playoff race. Look at Arizona. They continue to look for big names at skill positions (Matt Leinart and Edgerrin James were just two of the more recent selections) but never settled their obvious deficiencies on the offensive line. That’s why they are 6-8 and continue to disappoint every single season. The Vikings are very well on their way to the playoffs with Tarvaris Jackson as their quarterback.

Now some will look at that argument and say “Hey Mark, what about Adrian Peterson. The Vikings added him and they instantly go better.” Not necessarily. I’ll admit that Peterson is much better than I thought he would be. But look who he’s running behind. Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk are outstanding offensive linemen. Any NFL-caliber running back should be able to put up 1,400-1,600 yards behind those guys. Put Peterson on the Cardinals or Lions and there is no way he’s got half the stats he currently does. Defenses know that the Vikings are going to run the ball. With Jackson as the quarterback, and with the best receiving threats being Sidney Rice and Troy Williamson, teams know that the only offensive strength is the running game. And they are still the best in the NFL at running the ball because the offensive line is too good. It’s got a little to do with Peterson and a lot to do with their offensive line.

The Vikings defensive line is just as good as their offensive front. The Vikings lead the league in rush defense. Pat and Kevin Williams are a solid one-two punch at defensive tackle. They do a great job occupying blockers and allowing the Vikings linebackers to finish off plays. This is why Minnesota can succeed both inside and outside. They can run the ball and stop the run better than anyone else in football.

That’s also the Vikings weakness. They are the ultimate one-dimensional team. Jackson is an awful quarterback. If anyone watched the game Monday night you’d know what I’m talking about. He has terrible footwork, his throwing motion is unorthodox to say the least, he has below average arm-strength and rotten-decision making. He’s was the worst opening day starter in the NFL and he continues to be one of the worst starters in Week 16 despite a hoard of quarterbacks getting starts this season. He has no real receiving corps. He has no tight end as a reliable safety valve. Frankly, there’s not one thing about the Vikings’ passing “attack” that is redeemable (now that I’ve said that, I’m sure that Jackson will throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns).

The defensive secondary isn’t great either. The bad stats are somewhat inflated because opposing teams give up on the run so early in the game that the Vikings face more pass plays than anyone else. Despite that fact, the Vikings secondary doesn’t do a great job of stopping all those passing attempts. And as good as Williams and Williams are at run-stopping, their immense girth doesn’t help the Vikings get any consistent pass rush.

If Todd Collins wants to prove that he is an NFL-caliber quarterback after waiting 10 years for a shot, this is the game. I can’t see Clinton Portis getting more than 50 or 60 yards. The Vikings defense is set up perfectly for short timing routes to set up deep passes later in the game. Collins won’t have to worry about 30 MPH wins like he did in the Meadowlands. The 8-10 yard crossing routes should be there all day. Collins certainly knows the offense and has a quicker release than Jason Campbell. He should have success in the air. Defensively, the Redskins have to put eight in the box to stop the Peterson-Chester Taylor combination. The last two weeks have shown weaknesses in the myth of Peterson being unstoppable. He only has 81 yards on 34 carries the last two weeks combined. So it’s possible to negate him and force Jackson to beat you.

With all the things that have gone wrong for the Redskins this season, here’s a great chance for something to go right. A win here makes their rivalry game next week all the more meaningful. It would sure be nice to see them play for something other than pride on the final weekend of December.