Maryland Basketball: The Benchwarmers

Virginia Cavaliers (11-7, 1-4) at
Maryland Terrapins (12-8, 2-3)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

Let’s make this simple. I don’t like losing to Dook. There are no moral victories in losing to that pathetic program. I remember a time not to long ago (when I was matriculating) that losing to anyone, including Ratface and company, was enough to send the campus up in storm. Now it’s “nice that we can be competitive”. Ugh, gag me. How things change in three years.

That said, the Terps did manage to take another top-5 team and outplayed them for about 30 minutes. And even though Maryland didn’t win, they exposed the Dookies for what they really are: a team with a lot of problems despite their otherwise gaudy record. This Dook squad possesses absolutely no inside game of any kind. On top of that, their defense is suspect at best. Despite Maryland handing them more than 20 turnovers, the Nerds still surrendered 84 points. These are issues that would really concern me if I were a Dook fan (which, if you haven’t been able to tell, I am not). All any team has to do is look at the first 30 minutes of this game on tape and they’ll have their blueprint for a win.

Maryland and most of the ACC probably can’t hang with this team, but there will be about 20-30 teams in the NCAA tournament which will present all kinds of trouble for Dook when the time comes. If Dook has a night when the jump shots aren’t going down, they’re not going to win in two months because they have no other means of scoring, and they can’t stop a team with a decent inside game from putting the ball in the hoop. Unfortunately, after exposing this weakness for the first 30 minutes of the game, Maryland suddenly stopped going inside and fell in love the three-pointer, and it cost the Terps the game.

We’ll make the Virginia preview quick because of other commitments. I expected the Cavs to take a step back this year, but I didn’t think that it would a step back into the ACC cellar as February rolls around. I knew J.R. Reynolds meant a lot to this team, but I didn’t know he meant that much. Sean Singletary is trying to do it himself and his numbers are still pretty damn good. However, unless you have a guy like Michael Beasley, who can influence both scoring and rebounding, a one-man team isn’t the way to go in major Division 1 basketball. And Virginia is finding that out the hard way. While Singletary can drop 30 points at moments notice, he has no answer for the lack of big men on the Wahoo roster. As bad as Dook’s inside game is, Virginia’s is much, much worse.

On top of that, Dave Leitao has taken a page out of the Ratface book on bench management and player rotation. In other words, Leitao isn’t using his bench at all. Take a gander at the box score from the Cavs’ overtime loss to Georgia Tech this past Sunday. Singletary played 41 minutes. Mamadi Diane played 42. Adrian Joseph and Calvin Baker played well over 30. In a game where Paul Hewitt found ways to get 11 different players at least 10 minutes of action, Leitao responded by only getting 7 different players at least 10 minutes of playing time…and all 7 ended up playing more than 20 minutes a piece. That is not a winning formula. It’s no surprise that Virginia started out hot, blew a 10-point halftime lead, and crumbled down the stretch. If it wasn’t for Singletary’s extraordinary last second coast-to-coast layup, the game wouldn’t have reached overtime.

The Terps need to improvise a Tyler Hansbrough strategy in this game. They can allow Singletary to get his points. They just can’t allow the rest of the Cavaliers to beat them. It is very possible to give up 30-35 points to Singletary, but still hold UVA as a whole to under 70 points. Offensively, the game plan used against UNC and most of the Duke game should still be in place. Get the ball inside early and often. Force Diane and Joseph to pick up early fouls. Force Leitao to go to his bench, which he clearly does not want to do. If the fouls don’t work, pick up the pace and get the Cavs winded. Other than Singletary, it shouldn’t be hard to do. With a superior front court and depth, there is really no way Maryland should lose this game. Right?

Maryland 77
Virginia 68

The Predictor Top 25: 1/29/08

Ok, so it’s time for the first Top 25 of the season. Now, the top may look kosher, but the bottom half may look a little different than what you see in the AP. The benefit I have over the AP is that I don’t pre rank the teams (and like I’ve said before, the ESPN poll is worthless, I rarely pay attention to it). So even though Vanderbilt lost to Florida and Tennessee recently, and the AP is forced to drop them lower than where they previous had been, I start them this week at 9th based on what they’ve done during the entire season (not just last week) and they will rise and fall accordingly from there

1. Kansas (20-0): I put the Jayhawks here because if I start Memphis at #1, with their talent and their schedule, they may not move the entire season. And that wouldn’t be fun for anyone.
2. Memphis (19-0): Undefeated and vastly more talented than previous Memphis teams. Don’t know about them in March, but they’re certainly one of the best right now.
3. North Carolina (19-1): Unlike their friends nine miles down the road, they’ve actually gone out and played people outside of the ACC. They’re allowed a hiccup against Maryland.
4. UCLA (18-2): Their two losses can be explained by injuries. In fact, I don’t think any team in the NCAA’s have been hit has hard by injury as the Bruins. Imagine how good they’ll be when healthy.
5. Washington State (17-2): In the most competitive conference, they’re only a smidgen less efficient than UCLA on the offensive end. But they love playing defense and are very, very good at it. So they start at five.
6. Duke (19-1): No, they’re not the sixth best team in the country. Several teams much lower on this list could beat them. However, what they’ve done so far means they have to be up this high.
7. Tennessee (17-2): Not as sold on these guys as I was back in November. Don’t like their style of playing coming through in March. Too much jump-shooting to be successful in both the SEC and NCAA tournament.
8. Indiana (17-2): The best of a bad conference, so they have a chance to stay here and move up.
9. Vanderbilt (17-3): They’ve lost three of their last four, but all three were road games (at Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky). After their game this week at Ole Miss, there are six very winnable games. I really like what Kevin Stallings has done mixing the veterans with A.J. Ogilvy and the freshmen. Too high for you? Tough, get your own site.
10. Georgetown (16-2): Too many one or two point wins against average (West Virginia) or below average (Syracuse) competition for my liking. Plus, in their only two games against good teams, they were blown off the floor.
11. Stanford (16-3): Good record and great numbers in an outstanding conference. Not sure why they are lower in other polls.
12. Texas (16-3): I watch Texas, and I realize they’re good, but there’s nothing that stands out to me as spectacular. It’s like listening to a song with a great riff, but the song doesn’t go anywhere. I’ll have to see more of the Longhorns before I move them higher.
13. Butler (19-2): Always tough in March with their style in a one-and-done format. Again, not sure how good they actually are playing in the Horizon League.
14. Michigan State (18-2): This feels about right for Sparty. 18-2 in the Big 10 is nothing to smile about. Neither was that 36-point performance against Iowa. That just shows you how bad MSU can potentially be.
15. Xavier (17-4): This is where they are in both polls, and it seems right to me as well. A couple of head-scratching losses (Miami-OH, Temple), but some solid profile wins as well (Indiana, Kansas State, Virginia and Dayton).
16. Baylor (16-3): I LOVE THIS TEAM! What a fun style of basketball they play. I can’t say enough about them so far. Now, I’m the first to admit that by this time two weeks from now they could easily be 16-7 (with games at Texas, Texas Tech and at Kansas coming up). But if they win some of those, this could be a very prophetic location for the Bears.
17. Florida (18-3): Not getting a lot of attention because of some early season problems and roster turnover. That happens on young teams. Recently, the Gators have looked impressive.
18. Texas A&M (16-4): Two bad losses have me raising an eyebrow, but nothing more. If you look at this roster, this is still one of the most talented teams in the country, but they need to get their point guard problems fixed fast.
19. Drake (18-1): Again with the Missouri Valley. Only this time, it’s not Creighton or SIU! 9-0 in the MVC is as good a reason as any to start them here.
20. Kansas State (14-4): Didn’t like the lack of challenges outside the conference, but with Michael Beasley as a one-man wreaking crew, they are poised to do damage in the Big XII.
21. Marquette (14-4): No bad losses and a win over Wisconsin put them over the Badgers and the rest of the Big East.
22. Mississippi (15-3): They don’t look as sharp in conference as they did outside of it. Big home game against Vanderbilt should shed some light on this team.
23. Wisconsin (16-3): We go through this every season. Wisconsin is a decent team, with a great record, in a bad conference that plays ugly basketball. And they won’t make it past the first weekend of the tournament.
24. St. Mary’s (17-3): Despite their loss to San Diego last night, the overall resume is still packed with wins against teams like Oregon, SDSU, Southern Illinois and Seton Hall. A loss to Gonzaga next Monday would certainly be enough to oust the Gaels.
25. Connecticut (15-5): Very quietly, the Huskies have climbed past respectability and back to competitiveness. We’ll see how long this young team can keep it up.

Up Next: Mississippi State, UNLV, Houston, Clemson, Arizona

Maryland Basketball: Dook Side Effects Include - Chest Pain, Nausea, Vomiting And Hatred For Jon Scheyer’s Ugly Ass Face

#4/3 Duke Blue Devils (16-1, 4-0)
Maryland Terrapins (12-7, 2-2)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

You know what’s not fun? Acute bronchitis. I wouldn’t suggest getting it. Not only do you cough non-stop, but the medication puts you in a permanent fog. The minute I stepped off the plane after returning from Southern California, the cough that had been a slight bother for about a month blew up into a full-fledged pain in the butt (pain in the chest, really). The hacking cough comes complete with fever and other such nonsense.

Needless to say, updating this page wasn’t an immediate concern. Waking up in the morning and getting out of bed took considerable effort. All the rest of my energy was dedicated to staying awake at work for eight hours on codeine. Good times.

Anyway, since my vacation, then prolonged illness absence, we’ve seen the least interesting Super Bowl since the Ravens-Giants monstrosity in 2001 take shape. The game is already such a forgone conclusion and features two teams I care so little about that I may not be inspired to even post a preview of the game later in the week. I guess the Giants-Pats matchup is better than the dreaded Cowboys-Pats possibility that was taking shape in October and November, and certainly better than the Favre-Pats game that looked likely last week. Still, it’s not going to be close. It’s not going to be entertaining. It’s not going to be remotely interesting. A fitting way to end one of the worst NFL seasons in recent memory.

That means the transition to college basketball can officially begin. The last time I posted was a day before Maryland’s game against Wake Forest. The Terps were 10-7 and didn’t have a conference win at the time. Maryland took care of business in a must-win situation against a bad team with an uninspiring, but essential victory over the Deacs.

Then came a test, on the road, against the #1 team in the country. I’m not sure that even the most hardcore Maryland fan could have expected the Terps to knock off North Carolina. I was just hoping that they’d keep it competitive for awhile. But, in typical Gary Williams fashion, just when you count a Maryland team down and done, they come out like gangbusters and earn themselves the biggest win of the young college basketball season. And while I realize a win like this doesn’t excuse the losses to Ohio and American, you have to hope that a win over North Carolina will at least cancel those losses out down the road.

Watching that game last weekend, it was very easy to forget that Maryland had seven losses and UNC was the undisputed #1 team in the country. Maryland not only beat the Heels, they outplayed them. With the exception of a five to six minute stretch in the second half, Maryland was the better team the entire game. In an interesting move, Gary did away with his patented flex offense. He relied simply on attacking the low post. The plan was simple: get Tyler Hansbrough out of the paint temporarily by flashing James Gist or Boom Osby to the top of the key, have a guard dump the ball inside before Hansbrough could recover, then hope the inside move of the post player was good enough to score. Remarkably simple and efficient. It exposed Carolina’s lack of depth inside and it exposed the inability of Carolina’s guards to play any help defense whatsoever. And if it wasn’t for a couple of brain farts by Greivis Vasquez and Cliff Tucker on defense in the middle of the second half, the game wouldn’t have been all that close. Anyway, it was a great win. If nothing else, it at least gives Maryland fans something to hang their hats on if the team continues to struggle the rest of the season.

With that being said, it’s time I make sure that I’m stocked up with codeine and maybe some penicillin as well, because the Dookies make their annual trip to College Park. Don’t let them get too close, being vastly overrated is contagious.

Before we get to that, I will say that Dook is doing better than I thought they’d be. That’s not saying much, considering that I thought Dook would be a 10-loss team this season, but there’s still plenty of time for that. As usual, the Dookies out-of-conference schedule was suspect. The best team they’ve played this season has been Pittsburgh…and surprise…they lost that game despite Pitt being without their two best players (And we all know how bad Pitt really is. They’re a 2nd round exit waiting to happen as usual. Poor Jamie Dixon, maybe one year he’ll spend more time coaching than gelling his hair). Their best win came against Wisconsin. The Badgers are like Pitt’s long lost cousin from the Big 10. Again, Wisconsin is a 2nd round exit waiting to happen. It’s a good win, sure. But nothing to brag about.

This team is overachieving because Ratface has finally decided to go back to the way he used to coach. I’m not talking about his decision back in 1995 to abandon his team with a “back injury” because they weren’t going to the tournament. I’m talking about actually using some depth and playing more than seven players a game. Of course, we’ve been down this road before. After Backne’s best team got bounced by LSU two seasons ago because the entire starting lineup was playing nearly 40 minutes a game, Ratface started the 2006-07 campaign by using his entire lineup from November to January. But for whatever reason, when the ACC schedule started getting tougher, the Dook rotation started shrinking. Almost like magic, the Nerds lost six of their last nine conference games. Two of those losses came at the hands of Maryland (to be fair, Maryland was a better team than the Dookies last season).

I say this as a warning to all the Dook bandwagon frauds. The same thing is going to happen again this season. Ratface just doesn’t have the ability or the trust in his bench to stick with them after January. He hasn’t done it since the late 90’s. Over the past decade, Dook’s shooting percentage has gone steadily downhill month by month until reaching rock bottom in March. I’ve explained why in the past. It’s rather obvious. Ratface plays his starters too much, their legs get tired, and by late February, they can’t hit three’s with any consistency. And because Dook’s inside game has always revolved around one player at a time instead of several big men, all opponents have had to do in past seasons is get The Rapist or Requisite Dook White Stiff #312 in foul trouble and wait for the jump shots to stop falling. This happens right about this time every season.

In the past couple of games against Clemson and Virginia Tech, Ratface has already started to tighten his evil grip around his rotation. The overall numbers still look good because they are still being skewed by the out-of-conference games against cupcakes. But you and I both know that these generically-named, non-threatening guys like Nolan John Smith and Taylor Bob King and Lance Joe Thomas are going to see less and less playing time over the next few weeks.

Dook’s starting five is good, but they aren’t Carolina good. Make no mistake about, this conference is still UNC and everybody else. Maryland matches up much better with the Nerds than they do North Carolina. A similar game plan from the contest last weekend should yield even better results. At least Carolina had Hansbrough. Who scares you if you are Gist or Osby? New White Stiff? Freakishly Tall White Stiff? Unless Gerald “Swing Low, Sweet Elbow” Henderson decides to play dirty and the refs let him get away with it (which is always a possibility), who stops Gist and Osby if Maryland makes an effort to get the ball inside? The answer is no one. As usual, Maryland’s guards have the quickness to stay with the Dookies outside, and the Terps are more physical inside. If the refs allow the Dookies to turn this in to thug ball (Like they’ve done against FSU and Virginia Tech…and like they’ve done so many times throughout the last few seasons), then Dook can hack and whack Maryland’s big men and they have a chance. But if this is an evenly called game, Maryland should pose matchup problems across the board in both height (Gist, Osby, Braxton Dupree) and speed (Vasquez, Tucker and Landon Milbourne).

If I’m Maryland, the only thing that concerns me is the New White Stiff’s versatility. He has proven to be a valuable weapon both inside and outside. Covering him down low isn’t the problem, but moving outside with a 6’8” forward does present some matchup problems. Hopefully Gist will be allowed to cover him, since guarding outside never seems to be too much of an obstacle for him. But that also means Vasquez and Milbourne are going to have to guard Half Nelson and Sweet Elbow and the other 6’4” slashers a little tighter than they’re used to without Gist inside all the time. I think this team is up for the defensive challenge. Heck, defense hasn’t been the problem this season. Consistent scoring has been. However, like I mentioned above, the solution for that should be as easy as it was last weekend. And please Gary, when you have the opportunity, press the living daylights out of the Human Turnover Machine. I know his number are supposedly better this year, but he’s still only a few months away from having one of the worst seasons a starting point guard has ever had in the history of the game. You don’t change overnight.

So…final score? You know me, I don’t pick against the Terps when these bunch of Floor-Slapping stiffs come through the doors. It’s the only time all season when you can call me a true optimist.

Maryland 73
Duke 71

NFL Playoffs: Maybe Tony And I Will Share A Plane

I was 2-2 last week, but 3-1 against the spread. We bid farewell to Pablo Romo and his mariachi singers and take great comfort in the fact that Mr. Romo can now spend as much time south of the border as he desires. Adios, loser! In case you are keeping score at home, that is 0-2 in the playoffs for the not-so-young Romo, and he contributed greatly to both of those losses. I would say this comes as a surprise, but I’ve been telling you the Cowboys were massively overrated since November. So between Romo and his big ol’ ears in a complete state of shock, to Wade Phillips looking like he usually does after a loss (confused and stupid…wait, he looks like that all the time), Jerry Jones trying to decide which plastic surgeon to visit next and Terrell Owens crying and being completely self-centered (as always), it was a very enjoyable Sunday. The Boys should realize how lucky they were to face the Giants, because had it been the Redskins, they would have lost by a lot more than four points.

I will not be in town this week, so as I leave for Southern California (and maybe a quick stop in Mexico to see how Romo the Homo is holding up), I’ll give you some quick picks for the championship games. Records look something like this:
Overall: 161-86
Vs. Spread: 135-104-8

San Diego Chargers (13-5) vs. New England Patriots (17-0)(-14)
3:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I’m still stunned that the Chargers were able to catch the Colts napping. That to me was the greatest upset of the entire NFL season to date. How do the Colts lose to a Chargers team that doesn’t have LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates at 100%? The Colts defense must have taken the day off. The Colts loss is the Patriots gain, as they pretty much have a clear path to the Super Bowl. The Pats already crushed this Chargers team once, and they’ll likely do it again.
Pick: Patriots 34, Chargers 17

New York Giants (12-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (14-3)(-7)
6:30 p.m. Lambeau Field
The worst part about the Giants beating the Cowboys is that the Giants actually beat the Cowboys and are still playing football. This is very irritating to the predictor. Lost in all my dislike of Dallas, I forgot how much I disliked New York. On the other hand, rooting for Brett Favre is not my idea of fun either. Fortunately for me, I’ll be on a plane during this game, and won’t have to watch one second of it.
Pick: Packers 26, Giants 24

Be back next week to talk about Maryland hoops and their upcoming blowout loss to North Carolina.

Maryland Basketball: Ugly Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

Maryland Terrapins (10-6, 0-1 ACC) at
Virginia Tech Hokies (9-6, 0-1 ACC)
Cassell Coliseum - Blacksburg, VA

The last time we checked in with Maryland was right after their unsightly, but not season-killing, loss to VCU and right before their bad, but not season-killing, loss to Boston College. Since that time, Maryland has lost twice more. Once was to underrated Ohio. While it was a game Maryland should never have lost, the Bobcats will probably be one of the top two teams in the MAC this season and should earn themselves an NCAA bid by winning their conference. So in hindsight, it was a slightly embarrassing loss, but not one that’s going to be remembered once the season ends.

Then there was the loss to American. What can you possibly say about this game? It was awful. I don’t care how bad Maryland is, there is no way the Terps should lose at home to American University. There is no way Maryland should be dominated on the boards by a team with an average height of 6’4”. There is no way that should ever, ever happen. That loss falls on Gary Williams. That loss falls on the assistant coaches. That loss falls on the players. That loss falls on the entire program. For the past four seasons, this program has had its fair share of bad moments and bad losses. But never to American, and never a loss to a team at the small conference level.

Quick…what do Bowling Green, Morgan State, Brown, Hampton and Robert Morris all have in common? They’ve all beaten teams that have beaten Maryland. So not only do the Terps have to deal with losing to teams like Ohio and American, they have to deal with the losses those teams suffer as well because of the RPI. Now you begin to see what kind of uphill climb Maryland faces the rest of the way.

Now before you get all excited, thinking that I’m calling for Williams’ head, I’m not. As far as I’m concerned, Williams can stay as long as he wants. He brought this program back from the abyss, won a National Championship, and put Maryland athletics as a whole on the map. Just like Joe Gibbs, I’ve defended Williams’ job security from day one. That doesn’t mean I can’t blame him or partially blame him for a loss. The fact that Williams has allowed Maryland to fall far enough for a loss to American to occur, says he’s not taking care of the program the way he once did. On the practice court and on gameday, I think is passion is the same as always. But on the recruiting trail, it has certainly and undeniably changed.

The loss to American was clearly not all his fault. In fact, it was mostly on the players. For the past two months, we’ve seen a complete breakdown of Maryland basketball. There have been too many possessions ending with ridiculous passes that result in turnovers. There have been too many possessions where no one moves without the ball (a death knell for even the best offenses). The team defense is where it needs to be. The offensive end of the court is where Maryland has completely fallen off the wagon.

Greivis Vasquez spends too much time trash-talking and posing for the camera. Shut up and play. You want to play in the NBA? Then stop losing to teams like Ohio and American. Why would any NBA team draft a player who can’t play well against American to help them beat the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns of the world? He has yet to put together a complete game all season. James Gist suddenly has Travis Garrison Disease and refuses to consistently play inside. At one point a couple of weeks ago, he was averaging three free throws a game. That’s insanely low for one of the best power forwards in the ACC. The only reason Gist can’t dominate inside is if he takes himself out of the paint. Other than Tyler Hansbrough, what player in the ACC can keep up with him? There’s no one. But not if he keeps wandering 12 or more feet away from the basket. Landon Milbourne has been a bust. Bamble Osby picks up way too many stupid fouls. The freshmen have all shown flashes of brilliance, undermined by stretches ranging from inconsistency to incompetence. Other than Eric Hayes, there isn’t one player I have confidence in to play a complete 40 minutes. And he’s out for at least two more games.

Let’s look at this long term. If Maryland wants to get into the real tournament, they’ll probably need to go 11-5 in conference play (11-4 from here on out). Even though there are some tough games on the schedule, there are actually a few teams in the ACC that are far worse than the Terps. 11-5 may be a stretch, but take a look at the rest of the conference. With two games in a row against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, there’s still plenty of time for this team to get on a roll. And recently, the offense does seem to be getting on track. Gist is starting to float inside a little bit more. Osby minutes have been cut down, but the quality of minutes is improving. Cliff Tucker and Adrian Bowie are starting to earn their playing time. The Maryland defense has continued to play well. If Gist continues to stay inside, this offense can work.

This past summer, Virginia Tech lost Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon, among others, to graduation. All that’s left in Blacksburg is Deron Washington, A.D (which stands for “does nothing but shoot threes All Day”) Vassallo and freshman Jeff Allen. The Hokies only average 67 points a game and they’ve done so against average competition. Like Maryland a month ago, Virginia Tech has a negative assist-to-turnover ration. Unlike Maryland, they haven’t fixed that problem yet. They’ve lost to decent mid-majors like Butler and Gonzaga, but have also lost to Penn State, Old Dominion and Richmond. They’ve also won very close games to St. John’s and awful Elon. Their premier wins against George Washington and mid-major Hofstra are not good at all since neither of those teams is going to sniff the tournament and would both be lucky to get finish .500. Tech has also played only twice in the past 15 days, so there is good risk of rust.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking Maryland on the road, despite the Terps having shown absolutely nothing against a good team all season. The only reason I’m doing this is that the Hokies have shown less, against lesser teams. Maryland eeks out a road win and hopefully gets back on track before their season ends in mid-January.

Maryland 68
Virginia Tech 65

NFL Playoffs: I Swear, No Mention Of Jessica Simpson...Enough Already

Despite the Redskins early exit, the other three games went exactly to form. Or at least exactly how I said they’d go. That includes the exact score prediction of the Giants-Bucs game. That should really count for two wins, but I stand at 3-0 in the playoffs, and the overall record is now 159-84 (65.4%). The 2-1 mark against the spread (thanks Jaguars…couldn’t even cover 2.5 points) moves that record to 132-103-8. Despite being over 75% for this page’s history in predicting playoff games, please do not use this page as the basis for any wagering.

SATURDAY



Seattle Seahawks (11-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-3)(-7.5)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I would be remised if I didn’t put a little bow on the Redskins season. I wasn’t really depressed about the loss as much as I should have been. It was probably because the Redskins were dominated and should have had no chance to win. The losses that upset me are the ones that the Skins just hand over. Like the earlier loss to the Giants. Or the Packers. Or the Buccaneers. Or the Bills. Those are the ones that sit with me for awhile.

Last weekend, the Redskins were held in check for three quarters. Then they had a six-minute outburst of great football, followed by a couple of mistakes, and then they fell back into the control of Seattle. So it wasn’t as if the Skins actually deserved to win. They were beaten pretty soundly by a Seahawks team which was much better than I thought they were. The Seahawks earned themselves another game while the Redskins got what they deserved…an early trip to the golf course. So I was disappointed, but got over it pretty quickly. I like the foundation that is in place and hopefully the Redskins will be able to stay healthy next year. Had they been healthy this season, they would have been an 11-12 win team that would have crushed Tampa Bay last weekend. Hopefully I’ll have more on the coaching change when the Redskins actually do more than interview candidates for their defensive coordinator position (I hope you’re not insane enough to believe some guy named Jim Schwartz was interviewing for the head coaching spot…he was interviewed to replace Gregg Williams in the event that Williams is offered the head coaching position. Which I predict Williams will be offered before the Super Bowl is played).

Now to this game. I continue to be less than impressed with the Packers. Since escaping Denver with an overtime win on October 29th, the Packers have won seven games in convincing fashion. However, those wins came against the Chiefs, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Lions again. Not a tough slate of games at all. Futhermore, they had two ugly losses to the Cowboys, and inexplicably, against the Bears with the number one seed in the NFC on the line.

The Packers are a team that continues to be reliant on an over-the-hill quarterback. Say what you will about the running game coming alive, but don’t you think Ryan Grant’s success has a little to do with the competition he’s faced? Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense showed me last week that it’s more than Patrick Kerney, Lofa Tatupu and nine other guys. Julian Peterson is still kicking around pretty well. Rocky Bernard’s 2005 season was no fluke as he is still going strong. And Darryl Tapp actually became a decent pro after playing in a favorable system at Virginia Tech. Who knew? I fully expect the Seahawks to get after Favre and send him into another offseason in which he’ll keep the Packers hostage again with a Roger Clemens-like debate of whether or not to return. No one cares Brett. Please go away now.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Packers 20




Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-0)(-13.5)
8:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I was all set to pick Jacksonville until I saw the absurd amount of people that were agreeing with me. It’s one thing for some nut who has his own blog site to say the Jaguars are going to win. But for people who are writing for professional websites to stake a little bit of their reputation on the line just so they might have the chance to say “I told you so” if the Jags actually do win, is a little bit ridiculous.

Look, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Jaguars win. This is a team built to win outdoors in cold weather, which is exactly the environment they’ll be in tomorrow. They have the ability to beat New England in between the tackles. They have the ability to smack the Patriots’ aging linebackers in the mouth. They can control the clock. They control the tempo. They can do a lot of things the Patriots haven’t seen since they played the Colts. Teams can run on New England. The Colts did. The Steelers did. Heck, even the 5-11 Ravens gashed the Patriots on the ground. The best way to stop the Pats machine-like offense is to keep them off the field. And Jacksonville can accomplish this.

I believe the teams that win in the playoffs are the teams with all the momentum. That is why I’m picking Seattle. That is why I’m going to make some of the picks further below. Jacksonville had been crushing teams for the better part of two months, and were on their way to blowing Pittsburgh out on the road last weekend. But up 28-10, the Jaguars got cute, got lazy and needed a last second drive to win the game. Even in victory, I think the Jags confidence may have been shaken a little bit. That momentum they could have had was mostly lost.

To win, Jacksonville has to play their game. If they try to match Tom Brady with David Garrard, they are going to lose badly. They have to stick with the run. Even if it doesn’t work in the beginning. Even if they fall behind. They have to stick with the run until it isn’t a possible option. Unfortunately, I think Jacksonville will get sucked into a passing shootout. They just don’t have the ability to win a game like that.
Pick: Patriots 33, Jaguars 27

SUNDAY



San Diego Chargers (12-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)(-10)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
This is probably the easiest game to call this weekend. The Chargers beat the Colts at home in mid-October, by two points, with half the Colts roster injured and needed a whole host of turnovers to get that slim win. Since then, the Colts have gotten healthy (somewhat), have played solid football, and will now play at home where they almost never lose. Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy get to square off against Philip Rivers and Norv Turner. Somehow, that matchup doesn’t instill much confidence in the Chargers. Unless LT has a career day, and even if he does, this game will probably go the way of the Colts. I don't think there's any way San Diego wins unless they knock Manning out of the game early. In fact, I think it would be a bigger upset if the Chargers won than if Jacksonville won. Since it's that simple, let's wait to talk about the Colts next week.
Pick: Colts 30, Chargers 13




New York Giants (11-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (13-3)(-7.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Now, if Orval Redenbacher was completely healthy, maybe I’d go a different way in this game. But we’ve seen Dallas’ offense without Terrell Owens. In fact, it’s the same offense we saw in Philadelphia in late 2005 when Owens was sent to his room. It’s not pretty. Dallas’ offense without Owens, or with a banged up Owens, is not nearly the same as the offense we’ve seen most of this season.

Owens says he’ll play, and he probably will. But, he is not going to be anywhere near 100%. This is not the same situation he faced in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago with the Eagles. Early in the week, everyone knew that Owens would play. He was as close to healthy as he possibly could have been. It took the Cowboys until today to confirm the fact that Owens would be playing this weekend. Even when Wade Phillips said that Owens would play, he didn’t seem supremely confident in Owens’ ability. To hear things like Owens was limping around practice after every route he ran is not a positive sign.

Because of this, and the fact that Dallas ended the season poorly while the Giants continue on their late season roll, I have a little more confidence in New York. Tony Romo has no playoff wins and his coach has won no big games in his career. I still can’t believe I’m writing this, but it actually makes more sense to me to gamble on Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Wow…how bad is the NFC this season?
Pick: Giants 28, Cowboys 24

Redskins at Seahawks, Wildcard Weekend: The Bandwagon Returns

Washington Redskins (9-7) vs. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
4:30 p.m. Qwest Field
For the first time in a long time – maybe ever – the Washington Redskins find themselves as America’s favorite team. The popular vote and sentiment are with the Redskins. This never happens. The Redskins are the team people love to hate. Dan Snyder is too young and throws around too much money. Joe Gibbs is too old and the game passed him by. Clinton Portis is a primadona. The team name is offensive. And, in ESPN’s case, they play in a division with three of our “favorite” teams so hopefully they lose at the expense of Dallas, Philadelphia and New York.

Now the tables have turned. A tragic death, a quarterback injury and all of a sudden the Redskins are the little train that could. Everyone is piling on the bandwagon. I want all those people off immediately. Throw them off while the wagon is moving if possible. Then run them over. For the past 15 seasons, the Redskins have been kicked, degraded, tarnished, sullied, insulted, slighted, snubbed and ignored by anybody and everybody outside of the greater D.C. area. Don’t you dare try to get on now while the team is potentially on their way to become one of the greatest stories in the history of sports. We weren’t good enough for you then, we’re not good enough for you now.

The last time the Redskins won the Super Bowl, I was seven. Since then, not including this season, they have been to the playoffs a grand total of three times. They have won three playoff games. They have never even made it back to a NFC Championship game. Fans like myself deserve a winner. The millions, and I do mean millions, of Redskins fans in and around D.C. have pumped billions upon billions of dollars into a franchise that for the last decade-and-a-half has found new and painful ways to disappoint us every season. The fans fill up the largest stadium in the NFL week after week. Despite having the largest stadium, the waiting list for season tickets is the second longest in the NFL (only behind Green Bay, but if the Redskins were playing at a stadium the size of Lambeau Field, the Redskins’ list would be longer). We have dealt with numerous coaching changes, unconscionable personnel moves by idiots like Charley Casserly and Vinny Cerrato, and teams with talent that routinely under-performed. Now, after losing the starting quarterback and replacing him with a 36-year-old journeyman, and after having the team’s best player killed in midseason, the Redskins are poised to write a script that Hollywood itself couldn’t have even penned (both literally and figuratively, since the writers are on strike). So excuse us if we’re not ready to grant room on the Bandwagon for the Johnny-come-latelys. Go root for Brett Favre, Tom Brady or the NFC Pro Bowl team in Dallas (12 players, really? Are you fucking kidding me?).

Now, before I keep saying those two words that begin with “S” and “B”, it’s time to talk about the playoffs. As Redskins fans have learned over the past 15 seasons, there is no way that this team can look past anyone. That includes a good Seattle team that plays in the NFL hinterlands and has one of the best homefield advantages in the league.

Everyone forgets about the Seahawks because of where they play. They are no longer a surprise in the NFC West like they were a few seasons ago after emerging from a long bout of mediocrity. They now are a good team, playing in one of the NFL’s worst division. Since Shaun Alexander stopped running like Shaun Alexander, there has been little reason for anyone to venture into the Pacific Northwest to see what these guys are up to.

It’s a shame really. Redskins fans know about being ignored. We can sympathize with our friends in the Great Northwest. Matt Hasselbeck is still one of the most dangerous passers in the league. Hasselbeck threw for over 4,000 yards. He turned Bobby Engram from a NFL outcast into a 1,157-yard receiver at the age of 34. Believe it, since I know most of you didn’t pay attention to Seattle this season that Bobby Engram went well over the 1,000-yard mark. Yes, that Bobby Engram. He’s still in the league.

However, the Seahawks are not the same team the Redskins faced two seasons ago in January. That Seahawks team was built around running the football, with the pass as a complimentary weapon. Since that time, Alexander has suffered a couple of injuries. He has gone through the aging process that happens to all running backs at the decent of their careers. Once a running back starts suffering lower body injuries, it’s all downhill. Just two seasons ago, Alexander was the NFL MVP and set the record of most touchdowns in a regular season. This year, Seattle fans have booed him mercilessly. How quickly tides turn. The Seahawks have run the ball almost 100 fewer times in 2007 than they did in the 2005-06 season. This is another one-dimensional offense the Redskins are facing. This is just the first one they've faced where the one-dimension is the pass.

If you are a Seahawks fan, the one thing you have to be worried about is the lack of competition the team has faced this season. The Seahawks have beaten exactly one playoff team. That came in the form of a 20-6 win over Tampa Bay in week one of the season. Not only was that win eons ago, it came against the one of the worst playoff teams. Seattle only played one other playoff team, and they got embarrassed 21-0 in an ugly loss to Pittsburgh. Seattle has had the benefit of the NFL’s easiest schedule and playing in one of the NFL’s easiest divisions. Two games against Arizona, San Francisco and St. Louis, along with games against Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Chicago, Baltimore and Cincinnati haven’t exactly helped the Seahawks prepare for the postseason. The Seahawks are basically the Memphis Tigers of the football world. Sure they look good on paper, and boy that record looks nice, but with below average competition, aren’t they just a first or second round loss waiting to happen?

The Redskins, on the other hand, faced the NFL’s second toughest schedule (behind only Philadelphia). The Skins had seven games against playoff foes, including games against New England, Green Bay and two against Dallas. If you listen to the national media, that’s four games against three of the top four teams in the league. The Redskins won two of the seven games they played against playoff teams, but were in every game except their blowout loss to New England.

Here’s how the Redskins win this game. First of all, it appears that there is some kind of monsoon going through Seattle for the game. When it's raining in Seattle, and it rains so much that it's news, you know there's going to be some bad conditions. That will help slow down the Seahawks passing attack. The one thing the Redskins haven’t had to deal with during this four game winning streak is a balanced offense with a dangerous passing game (Yes, they played Dallas. Despite the Cowboys trailing 20-3 with their starters still in the game, I have to question the effort they were making). Hopefully, because of the rain, they won’t have to face either of those today. So the rain dance worked. That was step one.

Secondly, the Redskins have to control the clock. The obvious advantage for the Redskins in this game comes on the ground. If the Redskins choose to, they can be one of the best running teams in the league. Give the ball to Portis and let him be the workhorse. The past four weeks he's proven he can carry this team. They also need to control the clock because I’m still unsure how good their defense really is. Again, during this winning streak, they faced the Bears pathetic offense, the Giants in a wind tunnel, the Vikings and Tarvaris Jackson and a Cowboys team that gave minimal effort. Not exactly murderer’s row. Without Taylor, this defense is still very vulnerable to the pass, especially the deep pass. They just haven’t faced a team capable of going deep until the game today. Limit the amount of opportunities Hasselbeck has by keeping him off the field. If Hasselbeck is on the field for over 30 minutes, this game probably won't be close.

Finally, and it sounds obvious, but don’t turn the ball over. Todd Collins has thrown five touchdowns with no interceptions in the last three-and-a-half weeks. In fact, in the last 14 quarters, the Redskins only have 2 turnovers. It’s no surprise that during those 14 quarters, the Redskins have outscored their opponents 97-53. Hold onto the ball as much as possible, don’t give Seattle a short field, and the Redskins can win this game.

The last four weeks have been incredible. I really don’t harbor any delusions that the Redskins can win, or even make, the Super Bowl. But for this team to recover from a 5-7 record and an absolute tragedy off the field has been an amazing story. If the Redskins go out and lose, so be it. They would still be a amazing story. However, it would be really something if the Redskins went out and won again, and had a paid a nice little visit to you-know-who next weekend. Let’s get it done.

NFL Playoffs: Ride The Momentum

Before we get to the playoffs, it’s time once again to discuss the great prediction record. This year was very peculiar. I either had a really good week, or a really bad one. There were no in betweens. Still, the overall record shows another season hovering right around the two-thirds mark, which is where I’ve been the past two years.
Overall: 156-84 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 130-102-8

We continue on to the postseason, where the record the past two seasons has been scary good. An overall mark of 15-5 (not counting the two Redskins games from 2006 of course) puts me at a nice even 75%. And, I’ve gotten both Super Bowls correct as well. In fact, I was only off by two points of picking the exact score of the Super Bowl last season. I had the Colts winning 27-17 and they won 29-17. So let’s dive into the playoffs.

SATURDAY



Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)(-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
8:00 p.m. Heinz Field
This is certainly the most intriguing matchup of the first round. The Jaguars, who in my opinion, are the third best team in the NFL right now. Their offense was 7th best in the NFL this season in terms of yards, and they averaged 25.7 points a game (6th best). The running attack is the best left in the playoffs. Even better than the one-man show in San Diego. Fred Taylor finished the season with 1,202 yards, and most importantly, no injuries. Maurice Jones-Drew had trouble getting his touches with Taylor’s phenomenal season, but he still found the time to gain 768 yards on the ground and 407 yards receiving. David Garrard continues to play mistake free football. His 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions is just unreal. The offensive line, which I have said could be the best overall o-line in the NFL and will be for years to come, has done another excellent job. The defense has had to deal with several injuries, but they still recovered to finish in the top half of the league. While it is no longer the shutdown defense of the last couple of years, the Jaguars have had plenty of success with the “bend, don’t break” philosophy.

Pittsburgh has had their successes as well. Their defense finished ranked #1 in yards allowed and #2 in points allowed. Ben Roethlisberger recovered from all the issues he had in 2006 to have a good season. His 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions may not be Garrard-like, but it isn’t bad either. He spreads the ball around, as four different receivers finished with more than 400 yards.

Four things stand out to me in this game. The first is the line. I don’t remember the last time a road playoff team was favored. I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t recall any examples from recent seasons. Not only that, Jacksonville is favored as a warm weather team (even if they don’t play like one) going into a very cold environment. And a very hostile one as well.

The second thing is the last meeting between the two teams. That game may be reason for the Vegas spread. The Jaguars went into Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, in the snow and sleet, and out Pittsburgh-ed the Steelers. The Jaguars nearly doubled the Steelers in yards gained (421-217) and more than doubled them in rushing yards (224-111). Remember, this is a Steelers team that only gave up 90 yards a game on the ground all season. And the Jaguars blew by that number by halftime. The time of possession, as you might guess, was heavily in Jacksonville’s corner. It was roughly 38 minutes to 22 minutes. The Jags also sacked Roethlisberger five times, while the Steelers barely laid a hand on Garrard all day. If this game was early in the season, I could see ignoring it. But since it happened on December 16th, it’s hard to do so.

The third issue is the way the Steelers finished their season. The Steelers dropped three of their final four. Along with their loss to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh got blown-out by New England and mailed in a loss to awful Baltimore. They also beat an equally awful St. Louis team in a game that was pretty close for three quarters. In fact, you look back at the Steelers schedule, their last decent game against a decent team was all the way back in week 10 against Cleveland. That was a back and forth affair that the Steelers managed to pull out 31-28. At the same time, Jacksonville won six of their last eight, including convincing wins over Buffalo, San Diego, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Their two losses during that span were a three point loss at Indianapolis (no shame there) and a loss last week to Houston when all their starters had the day off. I’m a believer in momentum being a big deal entering the playoffs. All the momentum lies with the Jaguars.

Finally, the Steelers losing Willie Parker is huge. The Steelers offense, while dangerous, is not good enough to be one-dimensional, especially if that one-dimension is the pass. While Najeh Davenport is a good change-of-pace back, he is not a guy who is talented enough to carry the load all game. With Jacksonville’s proven ability to run the football and run the clock, Pittsburgh may not get many chances to score. Without Parker, their offense won’t be as efficient as we’re used to seeing. Without Parker, the Steelers offense is in big trouble.

All signs point to Jacksonville going back up to Pittsburgh and leaving with another win. That makes me nervous since this pick seems to be a no-brainer. So with that in mind, I’ll take the Jaguars, but I’ll make it close.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Pittsburgh 17

SUNDAY



New York Giants (10-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As attractive as the previous game was, this game is an absolute stinker. These are the two worst teams remaining in the NFL, and it’s a travesty that one of them will advance to the second round.

The Giants have done nothing remarkable this season. New York got out to a 6-2 start by beating the likes of the Jets, Falcons, Dolphins and 49ers. Then they slept-walked through their next six games, and woke up just in time to beat a Bills team with nothing to play for and give New England a run for their money. But from early October to early December, the Giants did nothing but beat bad teams and lose badly to good ones.

The Buccaneers did even less. They won the NFC South, which is like driving the short bus. They lost three of their last four games, which isn’t a crime, but it’s embarrassing considering that the losses came to the Texans, 49ers and Panthers. Their best win all season was probably their 19-13 victory over the Redskins during which they forced six turnovers. And even though the Redskins are in the playoffs, winning by only six points at home while the visitors give you the ball six times, is not exactly a dominating performance.

I’m forced to take the lesser of two evils. The Giants have a bit more momentum than the Bucs do. So I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I think I have to take Eli Manning, on the road, in the playoffs. I need to go throw up somewhere.
Pick: Giants 24, Buccaneers 14




Tennessee Titans (10-6) vs. San Diego Chargers (11-5)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
I’ll be honest…I thought the Titans would challenge for a playoff spot this season. I just didn’t think they’d actually get a playoff spot this season. I’m not sure how they did. I thought six games against the AFC South and a couple of west coast trips would do them in. Apparently not. There’s nothing special about their offense. There’s nothing special about their defense. Recently, they’ve suffered a rash of injuries, so they aren’t going into the playoffs at full strength. It doesn’t look too good for Tennessee.

San Diego, on the other hand, is on a tear. They’ve got themselves a six game winning streak, although most of that came against the weaker AFC West. Still, as I’ve mentioned above, I like a team that is hot going into the playoffs. LaDainian Tomlinson, after being handcuffed by Norv Turner for the first half of the season, has finally begun to look like his old self. The defense is finally playing up to potential. The Chargers aren’t just winning games against average teams, they’re blowing them out.

So that would make this pick easy, right? Well, not that easy. The Titans still have Jeff Fisher as a coach, who continues to get more from less better than most NFL coaches. He has playoff experience, and he has experience winning in the playoffs. Turner is a moron, who has made the playoffs just once in his 10 seasons as a head coach and has exactly one win. He has taken a 14-win team and turned them into one that was fortunate to get 11. The Chargers should win this game by a lot, but if Turner gets pass happy, this could get ugly for San Diego. Turner will cost this team in the playoffs, but it shouldn’t be in this round.
Pick: Chargers 31, Titans 13