NFL Playoffs: I Swear, No Mention Of Jessica Simpson...Enough Already

Despite the Redskins early exit, the other three games went exactly to form. Or at least exactly how I said they’d go. That includes the exact score prediction of the Giants-Bucs game. That should really count for two wins, but I stand at 3-0 in the playoffs, and the overall record is now 159-84 (65.4%). The 2-1 mark against the spread (thanks Jaguars…couldn’t even cover 2.5 points) moves that record to 132-103-8. Despite being over 75% for this page’s history in predicting playoff games, please do not use this page as the basis for any wagering.

SATURDAY



Seattle Seahawks (11-6) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-3)(-7.5)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
I would be remised if I didn’t put a little bow on the Redskins season. I wasn’t really depressed about the loss as much as I should have been. It was probably because the Redskins were dominated and should have had no chance to win. The losses that upset me are the ones that the Skins just hand over. Like the earlier loss to the Giants. Or the Packers. Or the Buccaneers. Or the Bills. Those are the ones that sit with me for awhile.

Last weekend, the Redskins were held in check for three quarters. Then they had a six-minute outburst of great football, followed by a couple of mistakes, and then they fell back into the control of Seattle. So it wasn’t as if the Skins actually deserved to win. They were beaten pretty soundly by a Seahawks team which was much better than I thought they were. The Seahawks earned themselves another game while the Redskins got what they deserved…an early trip to the golf course. So I was disappointed, but got over it pretty quickly. I like the foundation that is in place and hopefully the Redskins will be able to stay healthy next year. Had they been healthy this season, they would have been an 11-12 win team that would have crushed Tampa Bay last weekend. Hopefully I’ll have more on the coaching change when the Redskins actually do more than interview candidates for their defensive coordinator position (I hope you’re not insane enough to believe some guy named Jim Schwartz was interviewing for the head coaching spot…he was interviewed to replace Gregg Williams in the event that Williams is offered the head coaching position. Which I predict Williams will be offered before the Super Bowl is played).

Now to this game. I continue to be less than impressed with the Packers. Since escaping Denver with an overtime win on October 29th, the Packers have won seven games in convincing fashion. However, those wins came against the Chiefs, Vikings, Panthers, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Lions again. Not a tough slate of games at all. Futhermore, they had two ugly losses to the Cowboys, and inexplicably, against the Bears with the number one seed in the NFC on the line.

The Packers are a team that continues to be reliant on an over-the-hill quarterback. Say what you will about the running game coming alive, but don’t you think Ryan Grant’s success has a little to do with the competition he’s faced? Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense showed me last week that it’s more than Patrick Kerney, Lofa Tatupu and nine other guys. Julian Peterson is still kicking around pretty well. Rocky Bernard’s 2005 season was no fluke as he is still going strong. And Darryl Tapp actually became a decent pro after playing in a favorable system at Virginia Tech. Who knew? I fully expect the Seahawks to get after Favre and send him into another offseason in which he’ll keep the Packers hostage again with a Roger Clemens-like debate of whether or not to return. No one cares Brett. Please go away now.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Packers 20




Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-0)(-13.5)
8:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I was all set to pick Jacksonville until I saw the absurd amount of people that were agreeing with me. It’s one thing for some nut who has his own blog site to say the Jaguars are going to win. But for people who are writing for professional websites to stake a little bit of their reputation on the line just so they might have the chance to say “I told you so” if the Jags actually do win, is a little bit ridiculous.

Look, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Jaguars win. This is a team built to win outdoors in cold weather, which is exactly the environment they’ll be in tomorrow. They have the ability to beat New England in between the tackles. They have the ability to smack the Patriots’ aging linebackers in the mouth. They can control the clock. They control the tempo. They can do a lot of things the Patriots haven’t seen since they played the Colts. Teams can run on New England. The Colts did. The Steelers did. Heck, even the 5-11 Ravens gashed the Patriots on the ground. The best way to stop the Pats machine-like offense is to keep them off the field. And Jacksonville can accomplish this.

I believe the teams that win in the playoffs are the teams with all the momentum. That is why I’m picking Seattle. That is why I’m going to make some of the picks further below. Jacksonville had been crushing teams for the better part of two months, and were on their way to blowing Pittsburgh out on the road last weekend. But up 28-10, the Jaguars got cute, got lazy and needed a last second drive to win the game. Even in victory, I think the Jags confidence may have been shaken a little bit. That momentum they could have had was mostly lost.

To win, Jacksonville has to play their game. If they try to match Tom Brady with David Garrard, they are going to lose badly. They have to stick with the run. Even if it doesn’t work in the beginning. Even if they fall behind. They have to stick with the run until it isn’t a possible option. Unfortunately, I think Jacksonville will get sucked into a passing shootout. They just don’t have the ability to win a game like that.
Pick: Patriots 33, Jaguars 27

SUNDAY



San Diego Chargers (12-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (13-3)(-10)
1:00 p.m. RCA Dome
This is probably the easiest game to call this weekend. The Chargers beat the Colts at home in mid-October, by two points, with half the Colts roster injured and needed a whole host of turnovers to get that slim win. Since then, the Colts have gotten healthy (somewhat), have played solid football, and will now play at home where they almost never lose. Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy get to square off against Philip Rivers and Norv Turner. Somehow, that matchup doesn’t instill much confidence in the Chargers. Unless LT has a career day, and even if he does, this game will probably go the way of the Colts. I don't think there's any way San Diego wins unless they knock Manning out of the game early. In fact, I think it would be a bigger upset if the Chargers won than if Jacksonville won. Since it's that simple, let's wait to talk about the Colts next week.
Pick: Colts 30, Chargers 13




New York Giants (11-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (13-3)(-7.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Now, if Orval Redenbacher was completely healthy, maybe I’d go a different way in this game. But we’ve seen Dallas’ offense without Terrell Owens. In fact, it’s the same offense we saw in Philadelphia in late 2005 when Owens was sent to his room. It’s not pretty. Dallas’ offense without Owens, or with a banged up Owens, is not nearly the same as the offense we’ve seen most of this season.

Owens says he’ll play, and he probably will. But, he is not going to be anywhere near 100%. This is not the same situation he faced in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago with the Eagles. Early in the week, everyone knew that Owens would play. He was as close to healthy as he possibly could have been. It took the Cowboys until today to confirm the fact that Owens would be playing this weekend. Even when Wade Phillips said that Owens would play, he didn’t seem supremely confident in Owens’ ability. To hear things like Owens was limping around practice after every route he ran is not a positive sign.

Because of this, and the fact that Dallas ended the season poorly while the Giants continue on their late season roll, I have a little more confidence in New York. Tony Romo has no playoff wins and his coach has won no big games in his career. I still can’t believe I’m writing this, but it actually makes more sense to me to gamble on Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. Wow…how bad is the NFC this season?
Pick: Giants 28, Cowboys 24