NFL Playoffs: Ride The Momentum

Before we get to the playoffs, it’s time once again to discuss the great prediction record. This year was very peculiar. I either had a really good week, or a really bad one. There were no in betweens. Still, the overall record shows another season hovering right around the two-thirds mark, which is where I’ve been the past two years.
Overall: 156-84 (65%)
Vs. Spread: 130-102-8

We continue on to the postseason, where the record the past two seasons has been scary good. An overall mark of 15-5 (not counting the two Redskins games from 2006 of course) puts me at a nice even 75%. And, I’ve gotten both Super Bowls correct as well. In fact, I was only off by two points of picking the exact score of the Super Bowl last season. I had the Colts winning 27-17 and they won 29-17. So let’s dive into the playoffs.

SATURDAY



Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5)(-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
8:00 p.m. Heinz Field
This is certainly the most intriguing matchup of the first round. The Jaguars, who in my opinion, are the third best team in the NFL right now. Their offense was 7th best in the NFL this season in terms of yards, and they averaged 25.7 points a game (6th best). The running attack is the best left in the playoffs. Even better than the one-man show in San Diego. Fred Taylor finished the season with 1,202 yards, and most importantly, no injuries. Maurice Jones-Drew had trouble getting his touches with Taylor’s phenomenal season, but he still found the time to gain 768 yards on the ground and 407 yards receiving. David Garrard continues to play mistake free football. His 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions is just unreal. The offensive line, which I have said could be the best overall o-line in the NFL and will be for years to come, has done another excellent job. The defense has had to deal with several injuries, but they still recovered to finish in the top half of the league. While it is no longer the shutdown defense of the last couple of years, the Jaguars have had plenty of success with the “bend, don’t break” philosophy.

Pittsburgh has had their successes as well. Their defense finished ranked #1 in yards allowed and #2 in points allowed. Ben Roethlisberger recovered from all the issues he had in 2006 to have a good season. His 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions may not be Garrard-like, but it isn’t bad either. He spreads the ball around, as four different receivers finished with more than 400 yards.

Four things stand out to me in this game. The first is the line. I don’t remember the last time a road playoff team was favored. I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t recall any examples from recent seasons. Not only that, Jacksonville is favored as a warm weather team (even if they don’t play like one) going into a very cold environment. And a very hostile one as well.

The second thing is the last meeting between the two teams. That game may be reason for the Vegas spread. The Jaguars went into Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, in the snow and sleet, and out Pittsburgh-ed the Steelers. The Jaguars nearly doubled the Steelers in yards gained (421-217) and more than doubled them in rushing yards (224-111). Remember, this is a Steelers team that only gave up 90 yards a game on the ground all season. And the Jaguars blew by that number by halftime. The time of possession, as you might guess, was heavily in Jacksonville’s corner. It was roughly 38 minutes to 22 minutes. The Jags also sacked Roethlisberger five times, while the Steelers barely laid a hand on Garrard all day. If this game was early in the season, I could see ignoring it. But since it happened on December 16th, it’s hard to do so.

The third issue is the way the Steelers finished their season. The Steelers dropped three of their final four. Along with their loss to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh got blown-out by New England and mailed in a loss to awful Baltimore. They also beat an equally awful St. Louis team in a game that was pretty close for three quarters. In fact, you look back at the Steelers schedule, their last decent game against a decent team was all the way back in week 10 against Cleveland. That was a back and forth affair that the Steelers managed to pull out 31-28. At the same time, Jacksonville won six of their last eight, including convincing wins over Buffalo, San Diego, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Their two losses during that span were a three point loss at Indianapolis (no shame there) and a loss last week to Houston when all their starters had the day off. I’m a believer in momentum being a big deal entering the playoffs. All the momentum lies with the Jaguars.

Finally, the Steelers losing Willie Parker is huge. The Steelers offense, while dangerous, is not good enough to be one-dimensional, especially if that one-dimension is the pass. While Najeh Davenport is a good change-of-pace back, he is not a guy who is talented enough to carry the load all game. With Jacksonville’s proven ability to run the football and run the clock, Pittsburgh may not get many chances to score. Without Parker, their offense won’t be as efficient as we’re used to seeing. Without Parker, the Steelers offense is in big trouble.

All signs point to Jacksonville going back up to Pittsburgh and leaving with another win. That makes me nervous since this pick seems to be a no-brainer. So with that in mind, I’ll take the Jaguars, but I’ll make it close.
Pick: Jaguars 23, Pittsburgh 17

SUNDAY



New York Giants (10-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
As attractive as the previous game was, this game is an absolute stinker. These are the two worst teams remaining in the NFL, and it’s a travesty that one of them will advance to the second round.

The Giants have done nothing remarkable this season. New York got out to a 6-2 start by beating the likes of the Jets, Falcons, Dolphins and 49ers. Then they slept-walked through their next six games, and woke up just in time to beat a Bills team with nothing to play for and give New England a run for their money. But from early October to early December, the Giants did nothing but beat bad teams and lose badly to good ones.

The Buccaneers did even less. They won the NFC South, which is like driving the short bus. They lost three of their last four games, which isn’t a crime, but it’s embarrassing considering that the losses came to the Texans, 49ers and Panthers. Their best win all season was probably their 19-13 victory over the Redskins during which they forced six turnovers. And even though the Redskins are in the playoffs, winning by only six points at home while the visitors give you the ball six times, is not exactly a dominating performance.

I’m forced to take the lesser of two evils. The Giants have a bit more momentum than the Bucs do. So I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I think I have to take Eli Manning, on the road, in the playoffs. I need to go throw up somewhere.
Pick: Giants 24, Buccaneers 14




Tennessee Titans (10-6) vs. San Diego Chargers (11-5)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
I’ll be honest…I thought the Titans would challenge for a playoff spot this season. I just didn’t think they’d actually get a playoff spot this season. I’m not sure how they did. I thought six games against the AFC South and a couple of west coast trips would do them in. Apparently not. There’s nothing special about their offense. There’s nothing special about their defense. Recently, they’ve suffered a rash of injuries, so they aren’t going into the playoffs at full strength. It doesn’t look too good for Tennessee.

San Diego, on the other hand, is on a tear. They’ve got themselves a six game winning streak, although most of that came against the weaker AFC West. Still, as I’ve mentioned above, I like a team that is hot going into the playoffs. LaDainian Tomlinson, after being handcuffed by Norv Turner for the first half of the season, has finally begun to look like his old self. The defense is finally playing up to potential. The Chargers aren’t just winning games against average teams, they’re blowing them out.

So that would make this pick easy, right? Well, not that easy. The Titans still have Jeff Fisher as a coach, who continues to get more from less better than most NFL coaches. He has playoff experience, and he has experience winning in the playoffs. Turner is a moron, who has made the playoffs just once in his 10 seasons as a head coach and has exactly one win. He has taken a 14-win team and turned them into one that was fortunate to get 11. The Chargers should win this game by a lot, but if Turner gets pass happy, this could get ugly for San Diego. Turner will cost this team in the playoffs, but it shouldn’t be in this round.
Pick: Chargers 31, Titans 13