The Predictor Top 25: 1/29/08

Ok, so it’s time for the first Top 25 of the season. Now, the top may look kosher, but the bottom half may look a little different than what you see in the AP. The benefit I have over the AP is that I don’t pre rank the teams (and like I’ve said before, the ESPN poll is worthless, I rarely pay attention to it). So even though Vanderbilt lost to Florida and Tennessee recently, and the AP is forced to drop them lower than where they previous had been, I start them this week at 9th based on what they’ve done during the entire season (not just last week) and they will rise and fall accordingly from there

1. Kansas (20-0): I put the Jayhawks here because if I start Memphis at #1, with their talent and their schedule, they may not move the entire season. And that wouldn’t be fun for anyone.
2. Memphis (19-0): Undefeated and vastly more talented than previous Memphis teams. Don’t know about them in March, but they’re certainly one of the best right now.
3. North Carolina (19-1): Unlike their friends nine miles down the road, they’ve actually gone out and played people outside of the ACC. They’re allowed a hiccup against Maryland.
4. UCLA (18-2): Their two losses can be explained by injuries. In fact, I don’t think any team in the NCAA’s have been hit has hard by injury as the Bruins. Imagine how good they’ll be when healthy.
5. Washington State (17-2): In the most competitive conference, they’re only a smidgen less efficient than UCLA on the offensive end. But they love playing defense and are very, very good at it. So they start at five.
6. Duke (19-1): No, they’re not the sixth best team in the country. Several teams much lower on this list could beat them. However, what they’ve done so far means they have to be up this high.
7. Tennessee (17-2): Not as sold on these guys as I was back in November. Don’t like their style of playing coming through in March. Too much jump-shooting to be successful in both the SEC and NCAA tournament.
8. Indiana (17-2): The best of a bad conference, so they have a chance to stay here and move up.
9. Vanderbilt (17-3): They’ve lost three of their last four, but all three were road games (at Tennessee, Florida and Kentucky). After their game this week at Ole Miss, there are six very winnable games. I really like what Kevin Stallings has done mixing the veterans with A.J. Ogilvy and the freshmen. Too high for you? Tough, get your own site.
10. Georgetown (16-2): Too many one or two point wins against average (West Virginia) or below average (Syracuse) competition for my liking. Plus, in their only two games against good teams, they were blown off the floor.
11. Stanford (16-3): Good record and great numbers in an outstanding conference. Not sure why they are lower in other polls.
12. Texas (16-3): I watch Texas, and I realize they’re good, but there’s nothing that stands out to me as spectacular. It’s like listening to a song with a great riff, but the song doesn’t go anywhere. I’ll have to see more of the Longhorns before I move them higher.
13. Butler (19-2): Always tough in March with their style in a one-and-done format. Again, not sure how good they actually are playing in the Horizon League.
14. Michigan State (18-2): This feels about right for Sparty. 18-2 in the Big 10 is nothing to smile about. Neither was that 36-point performance against Iowa. That just shows you how bad MSU can potentially be.
15. Xavier (17-4): This is where they are in both polls, and it seems right to me as well. A couple of head-scratching losses (Miami-OH, Temple), but some solid profile wins as well (Indiana, Kansas State, Virginia and Dayton).
16. Baylor (16-3): I LOVE THIS TEAM! What a fun style of basketball they play. I can’t say enough about them so far. Now, I’m the first to admit that by this time two weeks from now they could easily be 16-7 (with games at Texas, Texas Tech and at Kansas coming up). But if they win some of those, this could be a very prophetic location for the Bears.
17. Florida (18-3): Not getting a lot of attention because of some early season problems and roster turnover. That happens on young teams. Recently, the Gators have looked impressive.
18. Texas A&M (16-4): Two bad losses have me raising an eyebrow, but nothing more. If you look at this roster, this is still one of the most talented teams in the country, but they need to get their point guard problems fixed fast.
19. Drake (18-1): Again with the Missouri Valley. Only this time, it’s not Creighton or SIU! 9-0 in the MVC is as good a reason as any to start them here.
20. Kansas State (14-4): Didn’t like the lack of challenges outside the conference, but with Michael Beasley as a one-man wreaking crew, they are poised to do damage in the Big XII.
21. Marquette (14-4): No bad losses and a win over Wisconsin put them over the Badgers and the rest of the Big East.
22. Mississippi (15-3): They don’t look as sharp in conference as they did outside of it. Big home game against Vanderbilt should shed some light on this team.
23. Wisconsin (16-3): We go through this every season. Wisconsin is a decent team, with a great record, in a bad conference that plays ugly basketball. And they won’t make it past the first weekend of the tournament.
24. St. Mary’s (17-3): Despite their loss to San Diego last night, the overall resume is still packed with wins against teams like Oregon, SDSU, Southern Illinois and Seton Hall. A loss to Gonzaga next Monday would certainly be enough to oust the Gaels.
25. Connecticut (15-5): Very quietly, the Huskies have climbed past respectability and back to competitiveness. We’ll see how long this young team can keep it up.

Up Next: Mississippi State, UNLV, Houston, Clemson, Arizona