Maryland Basketball: Hungry Like A Wolf...For A Home Win

NC State Wolfpack (15-7, 4-4) at
Maryland Terrapins (15-8, 5-3)
Comcast Center - College Park, MD

First off, congrats to Gary on win #600. Another milestone for one of the best coaches in the game. How he isn't in the Basketball Hall of Fame by now is beyond me. Here's a coach who has won everywhere he's been, brought his alma mater back from the brink, won a National Championship, won an ACC Championship and now has plenty of wins to go with all the accolades. If that cheater Calhoun can make the Hall, how is Gary not in? Hopefully it will happen very soon (You can see how much I miss complaining about Art Monk not being in the Hall of Fame...I'm now resorting to whining about a Hall of Fame few care about). But congrats anyway coach. Here's to another and rapid 100 wins.

It hasn’t been pretty, but the wins are starting to pile up. Maryland continues to put tallies in the “W” column and continue marching up the conference standings. Another ugly second half and another double-digit lead nearly surrendered still added up to another victory. See no evil, hear no evil, write no evil.

I talked about it in my last game post. The inability to run away and hide in second halves against inferior opponents has yet to really cost Maryland a win. They blew the lead to Dook, but the Dookies are a notch better than Virginia, Georgia Tech and Boston College. As the Redskins proved many times this past season, if you play with fire enough, you are going to get burned. And with a team that is teetering on the fringe of the NCAA tournament, every single game and every single half counts at this point.

Currently, the Terps RPI sits in the high-50’s or low-60’s depending upon what source you go by. The losses to VCU and Ohio, which were once bad losses, can no longer be considered as much. Both teams are hovering right around Maryland in the RPI rankings (In fact, according to realtimerpi.com, Maryland is 60, VCU is 62 and Ohio is 63). So that three week stretch in December, once looked upon as a death knell for the Terps’ season, can now be upgraded to “early season struggles”. The only bad loss as far as the committee is concerned is obviously the loss to American. That loss too is starting to lose some sting. American is in the 140 range of the RPI (certainly not good, but still in the top half in terms of Division 1), and if they keep beating the best teams in the Patriot League, they may climb close to 100 by the time the season ends. Maryland really has to aim for the top 50 in RPI to have some confidence in an at large bid. And that 5-7 record against the RPI top 100 is not pretty. However, considering the hole the Terps dug themselves into at the end of December, they’ve done a pretty decent job of almost climbing all the way out of it.

The Terps seem to have several things working towards their advantage. We’ve talked about how bad the conference is on many occasions. And I really believe the ACC is very down this season. However, and I couldn’t believe it until I went through the numbers myself, the ACC is still the number one conference in terms of RPI. I have no idea how. Every single team except Virginia is in the top-100. Boston College and Wake are starting to slip, but every other team is comfortably in the top third of Division 1 schools. Dook and UNC are in the top 5. Clemson is 26, NC State is 40, Miami is 48, Georgia Tech is 68, FSU is 69 and Virginia Tech is 72. So every time Maryland beats one of those teams, and every time one of the teams Maryland has beaten beats one of those teams, the Terps’ RPI climbs even higher and they get another “quality win”.

Another thing Maryland has going for them is strength of schedule, which is another big factor in terms of tournament berths and tournament seeding. Just ask Jim Boeheim what happens if you team is highly ranked in the RPI but low in schedule strength. Maryland has currently played the 24th hardest schedule in the country and third toughest among ACC teams. In terms of the committee, it doesn’t necessarily matter that Maryland lost to Dook, it only matters that Maryland played Dook.

Furthermore, and probably most important, are all the corrections the Terps have made in the last three weeks. Most of the problems Maryland had in December have been corrected. Turnovers are way down. James Gist is playing inside. Boom Osby is staying out of foul trouble. The offense no longer revolves around Greivis Vasquez. If Vasquez needs to take over, he will. But if he’s having an off night (and he’s had a few), the rest of this team can pick up the slack. And I really don’t mind the fact that Maryland can’t put teams away and are playing close games. That at least means that Maryland has a lead to blow. That wasn’t the case a couple of months ago. The only weaknesses that haven’t been addressed are the inconsistent bench rotation, the occasional lapse in rebounding and, apparently, guarding John Oates (8-8 from the field…really?).

Now it’s time for another one of those fringe tournament teams to visit Comcast Center. Sidney Lowe brings his red blazer and underachieving Wolfpack to College Park in a biiiiiiiiiiiiigggg game for both teams. In fact, both teams resemble one another quite a bit.

After several years of making the tournament and getting bounced early under Little Herb Sendek, State decided to get rid of the Great Bald One and replaced him with former player Sidney Lowe. Lowe was quickly named the “NC State Savior” and then immediately proceeded to turn a team that annually made the NCAA tournament into a sub-.500 squad, but not before the Pack created trouble in the ACC tournament last season. For four-and-a-half months, State was dreadful. But on the second weekend in March, the Wolfpack won three games against higher seeded teams and almost won the whole damn tournament. They lost a close one to UNC in the finals.

Those four days were enough for national writers to overlook four months of futility and allowed them to anoint NC State as a Top 25 team entering the season. The Pack certainly fooled a lot of people, but not me. Here’s what I said about them back in November:

“Yes, this team is improving. But to pick this squad 2nd or 3rd in the ACC, which I’ve seen a lot of publications doing, is absurd. The Wolfpack went 5-11 in the conference last season. Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley are a solid tandem inside, but the backcourt without Engin Atsur is very unproven. Too much youth on this team. Give them at least another year, maybe more.”

And lo and behold, as quickly as the Wolfpack entered the Top 25, they exited a couple of weeks later. Two bad losses to New Orleans and East Carolina made sure of that. A lot has happened since then. State is improving. They're above .500 in non-conference play and they basically became the 28th member of the Big East (with narrow wins over Villanova, Seton Hall and Cincinnati). But there were too many close wins over far inferior opponents coupled with the two losses to terrible teams. Combine that with a slow start in conference play, and my prediction in November couldn’t be more correct. NC State is a team that is on the move up, but they are way too young to be considered serious contenders on a national or conference level. Plus, the move to fire Sendek and hire the unproven Lowe is still, in my opinion, a bad move. Sendek probably should have been let go. But NC State shouldn’t have botched the search for a new coach like they did (Before the Redskins went through every available candidate in the Western Hemisphere, the Wolfpack did the same a couple of years ago before settling on Lowe).

State’s profile is similar to Maryland’s. A couple of decent out-of-conference wins along with a couple of ugly losses. Both teams started poorly in conference play. Both teams have recovered. Maryland has won 9 of their last 11. State has won 3 of their last 4 and managed to climb back to a position where one can make the argument for them getting an at large bid.

The one surprise about NC State is that they’ve reached 15-7 with Brandon Costner playing poorly. Last season Costner averaged 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 2 apg. He shot 47% from the floor and 38% from outside. This season, his numbers aren’t just down. They’ve fallen faster than Amy Winehouse. He’s down to 9.4 ppg, 5 rpg and he’s shooting worse from the field (37%) this year than he shot from outside last year. He’s gone through a major sophomore slump. Costner is also injured and is 50-50 for the game. According to some NC State fans, that may be better for the team. Ben McCauley’s numbers have also plummeted. He went from 14 ppg to 6 ppg and from 7 rpg to 4 rpg. His shooting percentage has dropped 15%.

While J.J. Hickson and Gavin Grant have picked up some of the slack, State’s real problem comes from their lack of point guard. After eight seasons (or there abouts), Engin Atsur finally exhausted his eligibility. Lowe has yet to find a suitable replacement. Newcomer Javier Gonzalez and Marques Johnson have split point guard duties, but their numbers combined are below average. Together they barely average three assists per game.

The Wolfpack are improving and they are going to be desperate for a win. If they slow the game down and play typical NC State ugly-ball, they could win this game early. Then again, the Terps have to be desperate to protect home court. They’ve done a great job stealing road games, but they have to start winning at home. I love the thought of a trademark Gary Williams press harrassing a team that has no true point guard. Maryland has to get out in front early and force a team that’s only averaging 68 points a game to try and catch up. The Terps seem to have no trouble getting out to large leads. I don’t think NC State is a team that can comeback.

Maryland 77
NC State 66

Elsewhere in the ACC…

SATURDAY

Boston College at Duke
Like Maryland, I think the entire conference has figured out BC. Limit Tyrese Rice and this is a very beatable team. Sure John Oates can occasionally put in 21 (ugh) and Shamari Spears will have some decent games, but if Rice is stopped, BC usually has no chance. That’s exactly what Vasquez did in the 2nd half, and the Terps held on for a win
Pick: Duke 82, Boston College 68

Miami at Virginia Tech
If the Canes want to rescue their season, now would be the time. The overall record is good. The RPI is good. The 2-6 mark in conference is not. Miami will have to finish .500 in conference to get a bid. Don’t think it will happen.
Pick: Virginia Tech 64, Miami 59

Virginia at Wake Forest
The Cavaliers are near a players’ revolt on Dave Leitao. Some of the comments the freshmen were making after their second loss to VTech were stunning. Accusing Leitao of benching them after one mistake, and openly praising Seth Greenberg in several major papers isn’t good for a coach who was living large after last season. Pretty clear now how important J.R. Reynolds was to this team.
Pick: Wake Forest 71, Virginia 67

Georgia Tech at Connecticut
Usually don’t dive into the non-conference games, but this is a big one for Tech and the conference. Tech needs a quality victory against one of the better Big East teams to keep their NCAA bid hopes alive and it would be another big victory out-of-conference for the ACC. UConn is a young team that has tons of momentum and confidence. Tons of young talent too.
Pick: Connecticut 85, Georgia Tech 70

SUNDAY

Clemson at North Carolina
0-52. Make that 0-53.
Pick: North Carolina 87, Clemson 81