Redskins at Cowboys: Closing The Hole

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
So here we are. Game number 97 against the hated Star. The final game played between the two at Texas Stadium. One team has suddenly been anointed as the front-runner in the 2008-09 NFL season. The other comes in to the contest with their season potentially at a crossroads. Or so some would have you believe.

The Redskins check in at 2-1. I was all set to describe the Skins upcoming situation, but John Clayton (one of ESPN’s few decent reporters) did it better than I could. Here’s what he wrote a couple of days ago:

“The Skins embark on their most important two-game road trip of the season. It starts Sunday in Dallas and concludes in Week 5 in Philadelphia. If they win at least one of those games, the Redskins will establish themselves as contenders for the NFC East title. Losing both will make them 0-3 in the division and extreme long shots.

The NFC East is the beast of the NFL. Just ask the Packers and the Steelers. After their narrow Monday night victory over the Eagles in Week 2, the Cowboys dominated the Packers six days later at Lambeau Field. The Eagles, also on only six days' rest, then played more physically than a powerful Steelers team. Through three weeks, the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants rank as the league's three best teams.

But the Redskins don't have to hide. Despite their division, it's not out of the question for them to have a 10-win season. Like their division-mates, the Redskins play four games against the NFC West and four against the AFC North. Barring unfoerseen events, any NFC East team could go 3-1 or better against each of those divisions. In the two non-common games, the Redskins already have beaten the Saints and get to play the woeful Lions. If things go right, the Redskins could think about an 8-2 non-division record.

The key to their season is doing something positive in the NFC East. They can't afford to go 1-5 in division play. A split in the next two weeks could make them players in the division race because they finish the regular season with three NFC East home games between Nov. 16 and Dec. 21.”

Most of his points are valid and I agree with. This will be a very important two-game swing for the Skins. The NFC East is clearly the best division in football. Despite that fact, a 10-win season is not just a possibility for the Redskins, it is more than likely (as Clayton said, barring unforeseen events like injuries, etc…). However, I don’t agree with the assumption that the Redskins have to win one of the next two games. The Redskins had to beat both New Orleans and Arizona. Those were musts. Injuries aside, the worst that can happen to the Redskins over the next two weeks is to lose two divisional road games and drop to 2-3. However, as Clayton reminds you, the Redskins still have all three of their divisional home games remaining. And 2-3 isn’t terrible considering that the Redskins get to play the Rams, Browns and Lions in succession after this two game roadie. So even with two losses, which is a distinct possibility, the Redskins have plenty of time remaining to get healthy thanks to a somewhat easier second half schedule.

Let’s assume the Redskins lose both of these upcoming games. They’d be 2-3. As Clayton said, the Redskins should be able to go both 3-1 against the awful AFC North and the even worse NFC West. Since the Redskins already beat Arizona, that would put them at seven wins. Let’s also assume that they beat Detroit, which isn’t a stretch at all. That’s eight wins and five losses. That leaves the three divisional home games. If the Redskins are able to hold serve at home and win two of those three, that’s 10 wins. Clayton said 1-5 in the NFC East won’t cut it…and he’s right. However, 2-4 in the NFC East may be enough. In any case, a good team, which I believe the Redskins are, should be able to win at least two, if not all three of those home games. So 11 wins isn’t out of the question either.

Just remember that at the beginning of the season I said that the Redskins couldn’t afford to start off worse than 2-3. That’s already been guaranteed. They can’t be worse than that after five rough weeks and entering the softer part of their schedule. That said, it would be great if the Redskins can steal just one of the next two. That’s all I’m asking for. Just one of the next two. I’d prefer beating these schmucks this week, but if you told me that a loss to Dallas would ensure a win against Philly, I’d take that in a heartbeat as well. One win in the next two weeks is basically a free game for the Redskins and gives them one or two games to play around with later on. Right now, I have the Redskins beating the Browns, Bengals, Ravens, 49ers, Rams and Lions. I would have the Seahawks game as a toss up and the Steelers game as 2-to-1 odds against Washington. But maybe Brady Quinn re-energizes the Browns in a few weeks. Maybe the Bengals offense wakes up. Maybe the Ravens aren’t as bad as I think they are. Ditto for the 49ers. When you factor in injuries, a win on the road in the division gives the Redskins a little extra breathing room for later in the season.

Back to the game. What do we make of Dallas? Well, depending on who you listen to, they are either the greatest team to set foot on a football field in the past 10 seasons, or the greatest team to set foot on a football field in the past 20. The experts are still undecided on that. The consensus seems to be that they are far and away the best team in the NFL. Some have even started comparing them to last year’s Patriots. I assume that to mean some writers/reporters/analysts expect them to go undefeated through the regular season. And I guess for a team with a weak defense, a big-mouth receiver, a quarterback that’s won nothing important and a spineless coach, they have looked pretty good in the first three weeks of the season.

Let’s look at the Cowboys three wins. Their latest came at Green Bay. Ok, I’ll give them that one. I’m not sure how good the Packers really are. They seem to have 7-9 or 8-8 written all over them. Still, a win at Lambeau isn’t easy to accomplish, so let’s put that in the quality win column. Then they had a win over Philadelphia. On the surface, that looks pretty good as well. Until you realize that the Eagles pretty much dominated the game, in Dallas, and basically allowed the Cowboys to come back and win it. Let’s not forget the 37 points that Dallas allowed at home (whereas Pittsburgh’s defense only gave up 15 last week in Philadelphia) or the multitude of penalties and turnovers from both teams. A win is a win, but to make a case for Dallas being the NFL’s best team based on that game is a little far-fetched. The Cowboys also took care of the Browns in Cleveland, but the shine has completely worn off that win. There you have it. Three wins. Not bad, but certainly not great. Certainly not worthy of talking about Dallas going 16-0.

The Cowboys have talent. There’s no denying that. But there are still several glaring weaknesses that I touched on earlier in the season. First, they have no depth at several key positions. An injury to Romo, Owens or any one of their offensive linemen could derail their offense (although I have it on good authority that if Owens gets hurt before the trading deadline, Dallas has already decided to trade a couple of draft picks to Arizona for Anquan Boldin). The defense has several question marks. The linebacking corps is average at best. I also said back in August that the secondary was weak. They’ve only gotten weaker since Roy Williams (who is a liability in deep pass coverage anyway) got hurt and Pacman Jones has proven that he has lost more than step and is nothing more than a washed up “never-was”. The final weakness is Wade Phillips, who will lose this team as soon as the Cowboys encounter their first Owens-Pacman-Tank Johnson controversy or the Cowboys lose a couple of games in a row. The more I’ve seen of Dallas, the more I’ve seen that these problems have yet to be addressed. The right team can exploit them.

Are the Redskins the right team? Probably not, at least not now. Jason Campbell did have one of his best games as a pro in Dallas last season. Campbell completed 61% of his passes for 348 yards and two scores in a near upset for the Redskins (and had the Redskins not had a multitude of injuries on both sides of the ball, they would have won). The Redskins are also the only team in the league without an offensive turnover. The defense hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game (if you take away the Reggie Bush punt return). The Skins also have the benefit of having years of film on the Cowboys offense while Dallas only has three games worth of the new WCO/Coryell hybrid Washington is running.

So why aren’t they the right team? First, the running game hasn’t been doing anything in the first half of games. That’s may be ok against New Orleans. Against Dallas, the less you are able to control the ball by running it, the longer their offense is going to be on the field. If the Redskins only average 2.8 yards a carry in the first half like they did last week against the Cardinals, then they’ll probably be down 14-17 points at halftime. Even though the running attack has been much better in the second half of games this season, if you are down two scores or more going into the second half, you won’t be able to run as much. So it doesn’t matter what the Skins have done in the second half if they can’t control the game in the first. The injury to Stephon Heyer is also a real problem. Heyer has proven to be a very good right tackle despite several critics (including yours truly) questioning the benching of Jon Jansen. Without Heyer, I’m afraid the Redskins are going to see a lot of DeMarcus Ware in their backfield. Ware has tormented the Redskins in the past, and if there are injuries on the offensive line, that won’t help matters. Finally, the Redskins have big heads after two home wins. They’ve been hearing about how great they are in the local media for two weeks now, and I wouldn’t be surprised by a slow start. And while the Cowboys may have a similar problem, Owens did not have a good game last week. I guarantee that he has a big game in this one, despite how well the Redskins secondary has been playing. Call it a hunch.

How do the Redskins win? They must continue to not turn the ball over. As I said above, they must run the ball well and a lot in the first half. If the running game works, they have to take several shots downfield against the most glaring weakness the Cowboys possess…their secondary. Pacman has given up several big plays in the last two games and committed two interference penalties against Cleveland to prevent touchdowns. And the more they throw to Chris Cooley, who is a registered Cowboys killer, the better. Defensively, they have to do the same thing against Rom-oh-and-two (record in the playoffs…work with me on the name) that they did against Kurt Warner. Blitz him as much as possible. I’m not worried so much about Marion Barber. I just don’t want to see Romo with more than three seconds to throw the ball. Also, the first chance the Redskins get, they need to pop Owens in the mouth as hard as possible. If they need to commit a couple of personal fouls to do, so be it. Owens is soft and has a history of quitting if he gets drilled a couple of times early in the game. Heck, bring some scrub off the bench and do it intentionally. Even if that guy gets tossed, it will be worth it.

I don’t expect the Redskins to win, but I do think the line of 12 points is laughable. For those expecting a 24-28 point win (or more) for Dallas will probably be very disappointed. As for Texas Stadium, I say good riddance. It has never been a special place the way RFK once was. It’s always been a dump with a glaring construction error. For those that don’t know, the hole in the roof was not created so “God could watch his team” but because of an engineering flaw. So let’s debunk that myth right now. I’m not sure how much of a homefield advantage the Cowboys ever had there, but you can rest assured that the new place with be cavernous and hollow and can only help visiting teams in the future. So let’s go down there and send the place off with a bang…hopefully God will be watching the Redskins win.

NFL Week 4: 49 Problems, But The Schedule Ain't One

A 9-6 week did get me over the hump and put the overall record at a measly 23-21. However, it was an ugly 6-9 record against the spread, which puts that record to an even worse 20-23-1 on the season. Yuck. Something’s wrong with me this year.

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (3-0)(-9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I can’t remember the Chiefs ever being more than a touchdown underdog at home. Coming off a 24-point beating at miserable Atlanta, I’m not shocked that they are. The likelihood of the Chiefs going 0-14 is getting better and better each week, especially since they’ve already lost two of the four winnable games on their schedule.
Pick: Broncos

Cleveland Browns (0-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
What do the two O’s in Ohio stand for? The win column of its two NFL teams. Cincinnati being favored by 3 points at home is basically Vegas’ way of saying “pick-em”. The Bengals showed signs of life last week in the Meadowlands while the Browns have yet to show up for a game. Maybe Cleveland’s awful defense is exactly what Cincinnati needs to see to get their dormant offense going.
Pick: Bengals

Houston Texans (0-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
How important is this game for Jacksonville? Well, considering they have Pittsburgh and Denver the next two weeks, I’d say it’s pretty important. A loss against a team they should dominate would help the Jaguars to a 1-5 start. They must win here to have some hope of catching up when their schedule gets easier in November.
Pick: Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) vs. New York Jets (1-2)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Ken Whisenhunt’s decision to keep the Cardinals here in the D.C. area after their game against the Skins was a smart move. The Cardinals have actually had to do less traveling this week than the Jets, who had to fly back from San Diego on Tuesday morning. I think the gamble pays off for Whisenhunt. It will help with the jetlag that affected Arizona in their loss to the Skins (the Cards didn’t wake up until late in the 2nd quarter). It also helps that the Cardinals are actually a pretty good team while the Jets aren’t.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
No, the 49ers are not good. Stop making a case for them. Beating the Lions at home is not impressive. Beating the banged-up Seahawks in overtime isn’t either. Two years ago, the 49ers used a relatively easy first half schedule to hang around .500 until November. Then their season went down the tubes. The upcoming stretch of New Orleans, New England, Philadelphia and the Giants should help their 2008 follow a similar path.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Last week, Carolina allowed Minnesota to get off the mat, dust themselves off, find their second wind, and swing themselves back into the NFC picture. Something tells me that loss is going to cost the Panthers, and maybe a handful of other NFC teams, later in the season.
Pick: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
A win by the Titans would have them sitting pretty. They’d be 4-0 with two winnable games and a bye week before their showdown with Indianapolis on Monday night. If they win here, there’s only 4 or 5 games the rest of the way that Tennessee should lose. Looking at this schedule, I’m not so sure why I only picked them to win 7 or 8 games. May have been a mistake on my part. Anyway, the Vikings seemed to actually rally around Gus Frerotte (I’m not making this up). So I’m actually going to make another mistake and go with Minnesota to make it two in a row.
Pick: Vikings

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I continue to be impressed with Tampa Bay early in the season. Having Brian Griese throw the ball 67 times isn’t going to win you a lot of ballgames, yet the Bucs still overcame a 10-point 4th quarter deficit on the road to beat the Bears. It was a big win for Tampa. This win would be even bigger. Tampa needs to get to the quarter pole at 3-1 since they may not win a lot of games in October (Denver, Carolina and Dallas are all on the schedule). As for Green Bay, their win against Minnesota was decent. But they struggled putting away the Lions and looked terrible at home against Dallas. I still think this team is going to hover near or below .500 for the entire season.
Pick: Buccaneers.

Buffalo Bills (3-0)(-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-3)
4:05 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I knew the Bills would beat the Raiders and I also knew it would be much closer than expected. Buffalo proved that they are not yet an elite team, but they may not have to be to win the AFC East. They certainly won’t have to be to beat the Rams. The Rams and Chiefs combined may not win a game until after Election Day.
Pick: Bills

San Diego Chargers (1-2)(-7.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-2)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
If the Raiders upset the Bills on the road, then Lane Kiffin would have had a chance. Blowing a big lead in the fourth quarter pretty much sealed his fate. Now we just await the formality from the longest firing in the history of professional sports.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2)
8:15 p.m. Soldier Field
The Bears could easily be, and should be, 3-0 to start the season. They’ve lost two 10-point 4th quarter leads in the past two weeks. I still think this Bears team is better than their record and 4th quarter play indicates, and I also think the Eagles are not as good as people are making them out to be. It won’t help that Fragile Donovan McNabb is already hurt. Brian Westbrook, who accounts for about 91.5% of the Eagles offense, is also banged up. I think we see an angry Bears team pull an upset.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)(-5.5)
8:30 p.m. Heinz Field
Let’s see…no Willie Parker or Casey Hampton. A banged up Ben Roethlisberger. A new and supposedly improved Ravens team. Points to an upset, right? But remind me again, had Joe Flacco ever had to start a primetime game on the road against a divisional opponent with a great defense? No? Then take the Steelers and the points.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New York Giants, New England, Seattle

In just a couple of days, a preview for you know what. Seriously, you should know. If you don't, why are you here? Certainly not for help picking games since the record has been awful so far.

Cardinals at Redskins: Horton Hears A Who, And Sits On Bench

Arizona Cardinals (2-0) vs. Washington Redskins (1-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
I can’t tell you how many games in the past few years the Redskins have handed to teams on a platter. It’s a high number, I’ll tell you that much. So it was nice to see an opponent return the favor.

At the end of three quarters last Sunday against New Orleans, the Redskins were down by nine. They had moved the ball well all day, they were dominating the stat sheet and they looked like the better team. But they were still down two scores and were just seconds removed from allowing a 55-yard punt return touchdown. There weren’t a lot of happy faces at the stadium.

It didn’t get much better in the early 4th quarter and the Redskins found themselves inside their 20 with about nine minutes to go. After a sack on first down, the Skins were actually on their own 7, 93 yards and a second drive away from a comeback. Then the Saints got so vanilla on offense and defense, it took the Redskins only about five minutes to make up the difference. First they went on a long march down the field that was capped off by Clinton Portis’ second touchdown run of the game. Following a predictable 3-and-out by the Saints, the Skins took possession at their own 33, down two and with plenty of time to get into field goal range.

What followed next may be the most important play of the Redskins season and the future of the franchise. Now, I say maybe because it could be just a fluky play that turns out to be no big deal in the grand scheme of things. For the moment, it appears to be a rather important play. It’s a play you want to mark down on paper, keep it filed away and pull it out when this team makes future runs in the playoffs (hopefully). Jason Campbell escaped pressure, threw the ball from his own 26-yard line, on a rope, to Santana Moss who caught the ball on the Saints’ 16 and jogged into the endzone. It was the biggest pass of Campbell’s career. It won the game for the Redskins, prevented them from falling into an 0-2 hole and prevented another long week of media scrutiny which could have caused Campbell to snap and pull a Vince Young. Instead, Campbell showed that flash of brilliance which everyone has been waiting for. It goes down as a 67-yard touchdown in the box score, but the 58 yards the ball traveled in the air was picture perfect. It couldn’t have been placed any better. And with the game on the line! Those were some cojones. That pass could mean more than just a touchdown and a win.

Before we get too excited, let me get back to my original point. The Saints had this game won and simply allowed the Redskins to take it back. Had New Orleans played their brand of football, they win it easily. The loss of Marques Colston from the Saints lineup can’t be understated. Without him the Saints had no deep threat. Without Deuce McAllister, they had no back that they could count on for four or five yards. The Saints basically got the ball in the hands of Reggie Bush all game. And with no one to take the pressure off of him, the Skins were easily able to key in on him. With Colston and McAllister in the lineup, that’s an entirely different offense and an entirely different game. The Saints looked afraid to go more than 10 yards downfield, and it allowed the Redskins to contain the only two weapons they had left: Bush and Jeremy Shockey.

Defensively, the Saints made a huge mistake on the final touchdown to Moss. New Orleans was without cornerback Randall Gay and safety Roman Harper. They had half of their secondary missing. On the touchdown play, for whatever reason, rookie Tracy Porter was left one-on-one with a Pro Bowl receiver. All it took was a standard double-move and Moss was wide open and running free for six. Again, if the Saints are healthy, or if they had at least given Porter some help, that game ends differently. New Orleans offered up a lot of chances to Washington and the Redskins eventually took one of them.

All right, enough with that. As I said, the Redskins have given opponents many games over the last few seasons, so it was a change of pace to see another team commit the same mistakes. All I’m saying is don’t get too excited over a five point win, at home, against a team that was missing seven starters.

One of the best highlights of the game (not including the touchdown) had to be the play of Chris Horton. Horton made a last second start for Reed Doughty. He picked off two passes and recovered a fumble. Both of the picks came on tipped passes, so if you include the fumble that was bouncing around for what seemed like a eternity before Horton got there, there have been several writers/broadcasters saying that Horton was merely lucky to come up with any of the turnovers. He was at the right place at the right time. I’ll agree to a point. He was certainly at the right place at the right time, but that’s half the battle. Half of playing defense is just being in the right position to make a play. The other half is making it. The ability to have a “sixth sense” and to know where the ball is going is a trait that separates average defenders from good to great ones. So whether it was blind luck, or an innate ability, Horton played extremely well and was around the ball all game making plays.

For whatever reason, Jim Zorn and defensive coordinator Greg Blache decided to reinsert Doughty into the starting lineup this week. I think this sends a bad message. The NFL, and sports in general, instantly rewards someone who performs better at their job than others around them. The NFL is a cutthroat business, and I’m sure all camp Blache and Zorn told their players that if they perform well, they’ll make the team. If they perform very well, they’ll play and even start. This was evidenced by Stephon Heyer getting the start at right tackle over veteran Jon Jansen. Heyer had a great camp and a great preseason. Jansen didn’t, so he’s on the bench. Well, Doughty has yet to do anything special. Horton looked good in preseason. In his first game action, he’s involved in three turnovers. One turnover led to points and the final pick ended the game. Other than the Campbell to Moss pass, Horton was a participant in the three biggest plays in the game. I think he earned himself another start. I think he earned himself the job until he screws up. It’s not as if he’d be replacing a long-time and established starter. By not starting Horton, Zorn and Blache are playing favorites with Doughty, and that can really mess up team chemistry and lockerroom cohesiveness. Regardless, Horton looks like a steal as a seventh round pick. I’m not sure what the rest of the NFL was looking at, but Horton was a 1st Team All-Pac 10 defender coming out of UCLA. For the Redskins to take what amounts to be a flyer on him in the last round of the draft says something about the scouting that takes place in the NFL. This guy had middle round draft pick written all over him. Guess the NFL’s loss is the Redskins gain.

Now the Arizona Cardinals come to town. It feels like I’ve had to do a Cardinals game writeup every season (edit: 3 out of last 4). So there’s no sense in re-hashing everything I’ve said about the Cards. They always play the Skins tough and close. Last season the Redskins almost blew a game they dominated for three quarters. Arizona could have tied the game with a two-point conversion in the closing minutes, or could have won the game after recovering an onside kick and then watched Neil Rackers miss a 50-yarder by a foot.

The Cardinals, thanks to the usually bad 49ers, the unusually God-awful Rams and injuries to Seattle, are in prime position to win the NFC West. They bring a prolific offense and the league’s best passing attack to FedEx Field. Kurt Warner had a good game last season with torn ligaments in his elbow. He’s fully healthy and so are both of his main receivers. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald both appear to be headed Pro Bowl seasons. Both had six catches last week and both easily eclipsed the century mark in receiving yards. Even better for Arizona is the slight resurgence of Edgerrin James. James hasn’t found the endzone yet this season, but he’s gained 155 yards in the first two games and is averaging 3.5 yards a carry (which is better than the 3 yards a carry he’s been averaging in September for the past couple of seasons). The Cardinals defense, which has long been the team’s achilles heel, is also looking better. They’re seventh in total yards allowed, and Arizona has only surrendered 23 points in two games.

Personally, I’m not taking a whole lot of stock in what the Cardinals have done so far. They’ve played the 49ers and Dolphins so far. Those are easily two of the worst five teams in the NFL. While Arizona may be the new favorite to win the West, that doesn’t make them a real contender. This is a team with a lot of flaws, particularly along the offensive line and defensive backfield. This is also a franchise that has a terrible road record, especially on the East Coast. The Cardinals have not won three road games in a season since their last playoff visit in 1998. They’ve already won at San Francisco, so with seven road games remaining, the odds aren’t good that this is a game they’ll take.

The Redskins did exactly what they needed to do last week from a strategic standpoint. They gave a decent load to Portis and they took their shots downfield against a weak secondary. Eventually, one of those shots paid off. Defensively, the Redskins were more concerned with Bush than they were with Brees. And that was smart…for last week. The Redskins have to pressure Warner. They must go after him. Give him enough time in the pocket to find Boldin and Fitzgerald, and the Cardinals offense will have a field day. This is a game where you are going to have to trust your safeties to be in the right coverage and your corners to tackle. The Redskins must blitz the fragile and non-mobile Warner as often as possible, even if that means leaving corners one-on-one with the dangerous receivers. On offense, the Redskins have to do exactly what they did last week. The Cards have had problems stopping the run, so we need to see another heavy dose of Portis. The longer Warner is on the sideline, the less damage the Cardinals offense can do. Campbell also needs to take his shots, away from Cardinal safety Adrian Wilson, down the field and to his playmakers. I expect this game to be another shootout and another close contest. It will probably come down to the last drive for a second straight season. Hopefully, with Campbell’s new found confidence, that won’t be a problem.

NFL Week 3: The Hot Seat Is Already Warm

My 8-6 week was not enough to get me back on the plus side for the season (14-15 overall). But my 8-5-1 picks against the spread did get me to 14-14-1 on the season. It also creates the rare occasion where my picks against the spread are better than my picks straight up. Weird. Back over the black this week, I promise. Still, don’t use these picks for any real gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (0-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-0)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
So Kerry Collins is still a viable NFL quarterback. Who knew? The Titans are not as good as their unblemished record would indicate, but this team can get off to a nice 3-0 start after this game. As for Houston, I would doubt that they come out with much energy considering what’s gone on for them the past two weeks. When the Saints were forced out of New Orleans three seasons ago, no one knew what to do when picking them since they were facing something that no other team had had to do. It turns out the Saints were terrible that season, but it led to Drew Brees and Reggie Bush donning the black and old gold. So there is a precedent for the Texans and how to pick them: don’t.
Pick: Titans

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. New England Patriots (2-0)(-12.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I said back in August that I’d put lots of money on the Patriots starting 4-0. Even without Tom Brady, I’d still put a lot of money on it. They get to face four of the worst teams in the NFL to start the season.
Pick: Patriots, Dolphins cover

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1-1)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Solider Field
Despite losing in the final minutes against Carolina, these Bears are starting to bear (no, I wasn’t trying for the pun) a lot of resemblance to the team from two seasons ago. They have no quarterback, but they seem to get two or three big plays a game from their defense and special teams. Since the North appears to be even weaker than I originally thought, that might be enough to get them to .500 or above. In any case, the winner of this game looks pretty good sitting at 2-1.
Pick: Bears

Carolina Panthers (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
The more I see of the Panthers, the more I like. Now they get a pissed off Steve Smith back. Good luck Vikings corners. Meanwhile, things are starting to get ugly in Minnesota. I thought that the Vikings couldn’t do worse than Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, but I see they plan on starting Gus Frerotte this week.
Pick: Panthers

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Now we start the segment of the broadcast that features all the early season coaching dramas. The three games following this one all have coaches that are on the hot seat already. This is a game that should feature a coach in trouble, but doesn’t. How Herm Edwards isn’t in jeopardy yet is beyond me. I know he has a lot of young talent, and I know that this was a rebuilding year for Kansas City, but they just got dominated by a Raiders team that was about to fire their own coach. They didn’t even put up a fight. The game wasn’t as close as the 23-8 score suggests. Larry Johnson only touched the ball 12 times in the game, blasted Edwards afterwards and no one even batted an eye. So why aren’t we hearing about Edwards being in trouble? I can’t tell you. Considering their options, I thought Kansas City was a pretty strong football town. Certainly a strong enough town not to let this happen to one of the premier franchises in the NFL. After this contest with rebuilding Atlanta, the Chiefs most winnable game comes against Miami…in December. They could be looking at 0-14 if they don’t win here.
Pick: Falcons

Oakland Raiders (1-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Lane Kiffin remains in Oakland…at least for this week. Even though the Raiders beat the Chiefs this past weekend, don’t think it was because the players were rallying around the gipper. I think that game speaks louder about the sorry state of the Chiefs more than the state of the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Bills appear to have arrived a year ahead of schedule. Dare we call them the favorites in the AFC East? I can’t yet, since these are games the Bills of the past few seasons have usually lost. I’d like to see a blowout win in this game before I put more confidence in the Bills.
Pick: Bills, Raiders cover

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) vs. New York Giants (2-0)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Marvin Lewis continues to swim further into the deep end and it appears more and more likely he won’t make it though the season in Cincinnati. The defense is still as bad as it was last year (41 points in two weeks against a backup quarterback and a third string rookie quarterback). Complicating matters is the complete collapse of a once dangerous offense. Carson Palmer looks like he’s got 45-year old knees. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshawhatever have been non-existent. They haven’t found a back to replace Rudi Johnson. And their line is so full of holes, it doesn’t matter who is behind center right now. They’re a mess, and they’ll help inflate the Giants record.
Pick: Giants

St. Louis Rams (0-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (0-2)(-9.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
Management has already said that Scott Linehan is on thin ice, and I’m not sure that it’s going to get any better for him in the Pacific Northwest. Yes, the Seahawks have been bad so far, but they’ve at least shown some fight. The Rams have yet to show up for a game this season. After this game there isn’t an easy contest for them until they host the Dolphins on the last weekend of November. Like the Chiefs, it could be a long oh-fer for the Rams if they can’t sneak out of Seattle with a win.
Pick: Seahawks, Rams cover

Detroit Lions (0-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-1)(-4)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
The Rams-Seahawks and Chiefs-Falcons put in a good fight for the Toilet Bowl Game of the Week. However, the Lions and 49ers actually win that distinction for Week 3, which is the first thing that either of these franchises have won in a long time.
Pick: 49ers

New Orleans Saints (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-0)(-5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
As I’ll touch on later in the week, the Saints are going to struggle without Marques Colston in the lineup. Unless Sean Payton unleashes Reggie Bush and allows Robert Meachem to get playing time, there is no one on the Saints that can stretch the field for Drew Brees. We’ll probably see one more week of conservative play-calling before Payton watches the film and opens the offense up a little. Plus, after his ballsy 2-point conversion call last week, I got to go with Mike Shanahan this week as a reward.
Pick: Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
I don’t think the Eagles are going to keep up their 37.5 points per game pace against the Steelers defense. Big Ben will be fine and the Eagles should be exposed here.
Pick: Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
As important as Minnesota’s game is this week, this is an early season must win for Jacksonville. Otherwise, they’ll be 0-3 and at least two games behind the division leader (3 games if Tennessee wins). Any hopes of winning the South would go straight out the window. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, I don’t see the Colts losing two straight home games to start the season.
Pick: Colts

Cleveland Browns (0-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Could the NFL handled the Ravens-Texans scheduling snafu a little better? Certainly. It’s hardly fair to have the Texans and Ravens lose their bye weeks in Week 2. The game should have been played at the Cotton Bowl, the Alomodome, the Sun Bowl or the Superdome. But for Ravens fans to complain that they should have hosted the game is wrong. The NFL is not going to make that mistake again and award a team 9 home games in a season (especially since the last team to do that won their division by a grand total of one game…think that extra home contest helped any?). They’ll only go down that path if the Patriots or Cowboys are involved and getting extra assistance. Anyway, I was hoping to see the Ravens as favorites, and I got my wish.
Pick: Browns

Dallas Cowboys (2-0)(-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
8:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Was the Monday Night game between Dallas and Philly entertaining? Sure, if you could stand rooting for either team. Was it good football? No, far from it. There was no defense, and plenty of sloppy play from both teams. There is a difference between entertaining and well-played football. Just because 78 points were scored doesn’t make it a quality football game. It means that neither teams’ defense is any good. The 3 turnovers (not including the fumble by DeSean “I Got 99 Yards, But What’s Past The One?” Jackson that wasn’t called), 4 sacks and 16 penalties speak more to the quality of the game than the scoreboard. The Broncos-Chargers game was much better.
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

New York Jets (1-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (0-2)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Games like last Sunday’s contest just seem to happen to teams that employ Norv Turner. He’s more than bad luck. He’s an embarrassing and frustrating loss waiting to happen. For all the complaining done by the national media about the bad call that helped cost the Chargers the game, why is no one mentioning that all the Chargers had to do was stop Denver’s two-point conversion and they would have won?

That brings me to another point. Why is the national sports media complaining about the call, but there are no complaints coming from San Diego? It’s simple. Despite being an absolutely gorgeous city and one of the best places to live in the world, San Diego is probably the worst sports city in the country. I spent the week leading up to their AFC Championship Game against New England in San Diego. It was easy to forget that there was a game since no one really seemed to care. Not that I blame them considering all that there is to do in San Diego. If the Chargers fans really cared about their team, they wouldn’t allow Norv Turner to keep running it.
Pick: Chargers, Jets cover

The Redskins play host to the suprisingly good Arizona Cardinals. More on that shortly.

Saints at Redskins: West Coast Bias

New Orleans Saints (1-0) vs. Washington Redskins (0-1)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
If you listen to enough fans, there are only two ways to take the season opening loss. The first is to assume that the season is already over, Jason Campbell should be benched immediately and a new coaching search should get underway. The other view is just chalking it up as a rough loss, but one that wasn’t entirely unexpected. Losing to the defending Super Bowl champions and a divisional opponent, on the road, in a prime time game when the previous year’s team was being honored – and losing only by 9 points – isn’t a big deal.

The truth for the opening loss falls somewhere in the middle. True, losing in the swamplands and pig farms by 9 points, in a game the Redskins had several chances to get back into, shouldn’t be reason to press the panic button. If the Redskins could have gotten out of their own way they may have won that game. The Skins were the better team in the second half. Despite all that, there are several red flags to come out of last Thursday’s game that suggest it could be a very long season.

The two biggest issues were definitely the quarterback play and the play-calling itself. I think we all knew coming in that quarterback play would be a problem. At least I did. But I was under the impression that Jim Zorn’s play-calling would be more aggressive and more entertaining to watch than what we saw in the final couple of seasons under Joe Gibbs. That was certainly not the case. The version of the West Coast Offense that we saw on Thursday had no spine, no risk taking and certainly no heart to it. I know the WCO isn’t necessarily designed to throw the ball 40 yards downfield, but even the great WCO offenses of Bill Walsh took a few shots downfield a game. It was frustrating to watch.

As I’ve written about before, I have never been a fan of the WCO. When it was originally created, it was innovative. Now, it's an offense that is run by teams with little talent as a gimmick to beat better defenses (an offense like the Redskins, with their talent, don’t need to run). The WCO, in its purest forms, is all about timing. If the offense is timed correctly, it doesn’t matter how fast the receivers are, or the opposing defenses are. If the play is timed well, the offense will succeed. But the problems with the WCO showed themselves against the Giants. How many times did the Redskins end up a yard or two short of a first down? Four, five times…maybe more? It’s not because the receivers didn’t get to the first down marker. It’s because their routes, as defined in the WCO, are specifically designed to run exactly where they were run to. If the timing is right, the receivers catch the ball, turn up field, gain those precious yards after catch, and get the first. The receivers aren’t supposed to run to the sticks, they’re supposed to run their routes. If the timing is off by either the quarterback or receivers, there is no chance for a first down. Since Campbell was off all game and clearly didn’t look comfortable in the pocket, the Redskins left several potential first downs on the field because their receivers weren’t allowed to run routes that would achieve first downs on the catch. YAC is great, but it doesn’t matter if your quarterback can’t throw the ball to his receivers in stride. On top of those problems, the lack of a 2-minute drill, or at least a hurry-up offense, in the 4th quarter was inexcusable.

Now the Redskins welcome in the Saints for the first time since 2002. While New Orleans looked good in their win against Tampa in Week 1, they have issues of their own coming in. Namely, injury issues. On offense, Marques Colston will miss this game, and at least another month, with a thumb injury. Without him, the Saints lose their one homerun hitting receiver. Devery Henderson and former Redskin David Patten can’t stretch the field like Colston. They also may be without Deuce McAllister, who is still not fully recovered from last October’s reconstructive knee surgery. McAllister was in uniform for the game against Tampa, but didn’t step on the field. Coach Sean Payton doesn’t seem willing to rush McAllister back to the lineup. It’s a smart move for a team that is chasing a division title. No sense in putting an injured McAllister on the field now. Wait until you need him, or at least until he’s close to 100%. Deuce will suit up again this week, but don’t expect him to play much or at all.

The Saints also have problems on defense. Linebacker Scott Fujita, cornerback Randall Gay and safety Roman Harper will all miss this game as well. Combine that with the earlier loss of linebacker Mark Simoneau, and the Saints are already without four of their defensive starters just two weeks into the season. This is not a great defense to begin win. Last season, the Saints were 30th in the NFL against the pass and 26th overall. So the Redskins are going to face a poor passing defense without two linebackers and without half the secondary.

So where does that leave New Orleans? They still have plenty. Drew Brees and Reggie Bush are healthy and ready to go behind a solid offensive line. Bush appears ready to have his break out season. He committed himself to football in the offseason and his nearly 200 yards of total offense from scrimmage in the opener – against a great defense – was certainly an eye-opener. Henderson, while not as big of a threat as Colston, is still a very good receiver. The Saints also have Jeremy Shockey, a player that routinely killed the Redskins with the Giants on third downs. Defensively, the line is still intact, and they have three playmakers in Charles Grant, Will Smith and rookie Sedrick Ellis. Jonathan Vilma was a great addition for the Saints at middle linebacker. Mike McKenzie may not be an elite corner, but he’s still in the second-tier of defensive backs. So the Saints have talent that is healthy and will play on Sunday. There are a lot of reasons I think this team will win NFC South despite the recent rash of injuries.

If there is a game for Zorn to go downfield, this is the one. Again, you’re going up against a poor passing defense that is injured. Take some chances. At the very least, it will get the crowd on your side. If the Redskins don’t go downfield at least 3 or 4 times, then I’m going to be much nastier next week. It also wouldn’t hurt to get Campbell in the shotgun every once and awhile. I don’t care if the WCO doesn’t use a lot of shotgun, Campbell is better standing up behind center, so you have to play to your strengths.

I’m really not worried about the Redskins offense in this one. I think they’ve had 10 days to stew over that horrid performance in New York. They’ll be motivated and they’re playing a vulnerable defense. The problem is going to be the Redskins defense. I’m having nightmares about Bush being left alone in the flat on a screen pass. While the defense held its own in the second half, the Redskins tackling left a lot to be desired. As a defensive unit, you may only have one clean shot per play on Bush, so you have to wrap him up. I think he’ll have another big day. However, I don’t think the Saints are going to put up 24 points again without two of their biggest weapons. Shaun Springs returning will also help the Skins. I’ll be the first to criticize Springs for being way too soft (which he is), but he is important to this defense. In the last four seasons, when Springs plays, the Redskins defense gives up an average of 16 points and 200 passing yards per game. When he doesn’t play, the defense gives up 22 points and 220 passing yards a game.

If the Skins tackle Bush, keep an eye on Shockey on 3rd downs, they should be ok. It wouldn’t hurt if they ran the ball well to keep New Orleans off the field. Take some chances and open the offense up. If Campbell is the quarterback for the foreseeable future, then let him prove it in this game against a weak defense. The Skins need to get out to a fast start to counter the bad performance last week, and to keep the boo-birds silenced.

NFL Week 2: Instant Karma's Gonna Get You

It was an ugly Week 1, but that’s not surprising. It usually takes a couple of weeks to figure out what’s going on in the NFL. The 6-9 record overall and against the spread will improve. Please don’t use the following picks for gambling purposes…you saw how well it worked out last week.

SUNDAY

Oakland Raiders (0-1) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-1)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Upon further review, the Raiders may not be ready to take the leap. Other than the Rams, the most embarrassing performance of Week 1 belonged to L.A.’s other former team. JaMarcus Russell looked entirely overmatched. The secondary, one of the few strengths for Oakland, was dominated by a Broncos team missing their best receiver. Kansas City looks like a safe pick this week. I like Damon Huard starting at quarterback much more than Brodie Croyle.
Pick: Chiefs

Tennessee Titans (1-0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Even after losing to a team with a rookie coach and rookie quarterback, I’m going to give the Bengals one more try. They let me down here, and it will probably be awhile before I pick them again. Plus, losing Crazy Vince Young won’t help the Titans any.
Pick: Bengals

Indianapolis Colts (0-1)(-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-1)
1:00 p.m. The Metrodome
Even though the Vikings didn’t win, they looked relatively good against a division rival on the road. As the Redskins found out, that’s never an easy way to open a season. Tarvaris Jackson did a pretty good job in the second half when the Packers finally stopped Adrian Peterson. Conversely, the Colts looked terrible in the second half of their loss to Chicago. Peyton Manning is clearly not 100% yet and the Colts offense sputtered because of his injury. It didn’t help that the Colts were gashed on the ground by a rookie running back. Facing Peterson this week won’t help.
Pick: Vikings

Green Bay Packers (1-0)(-3) vs. Detroit Lions (0-1)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
If Week 1 taught me anything, it’s not to pick the Lions under any circumstances. If anyone can make Aaron Rodgers look like Brett Favre, it’s this defense.
Pick: Packers

Chicago Bears (1-0) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Jake Delhomme certainly appeared healthy. At least on that last drive. I was more impressed by Carolina’s comeback win across country than I was with the Bears win at Indianapolis against the depleted Colts. If Matt Forte goes off for another 120 yards against the Carolina defense, then I’ll start taking the Bears seriously.
Pick: Panthers

New York Giants (1-0)(-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-1)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The good news with Dallas and Philly playing later in the day, is someone other than the Redskins will have a loss in the NFC East. You know the Giants won’t have one. By the way, I know I predicted the Rams to have a bad year and go 6-10, but they have way too much talent to roll over like they did against Philadelphia.
Pick: Giants

Buffalo Bills (1-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
Wow, did the Bills look impressive. However, they scored 21 of their 34 points on a punt return, fake field goal and defensive touchdown. So they had 13 points from their offense. I don’t think Buffalo can count on scoring like that every week (more on that when we get to the Ravens). They were also playing a team that never plays well on the road, was without three of its top four receivers and has a quarterback with a bulging disc in his back. The Bills, if they expect to be good, need to win games like that convincingly. Something tells me Jacksonville wins this game, but the touchdown spread is too high.
Pick: Jaguars, Bills cover

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)(-8)
4:05 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
You can see how much confidence Las Vegas has in Matt Ryan’s performance against Detroit. I tend to agree with the oddsmakers on this one. Detroit may want to imitate the Tampa Cover 2, but this is the real deal Ryan faces this week.
Pick: Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers (0-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (0-1)(-7.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
As I mentioned, the Seahawks are a mess. Matt Hasselbeck is playing with a bad back. Mo Morris got banged up Sunday. Bobby Engram and Deion Branch won’t be playing on Sunday. Nate Burleson is out for the year. The balanced offense that was once the strength of the Seahawks is still there…both the running and passing attack have several injuries at the same time. They’ll still beat San Francisco, but it will be close.
Pick: Seahawks, 49ers cover

Miami Dolphins (0-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-0)(-7)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
With Seattle putting together a MASH corps on the field, early control of the West is up for grabs. We all know San Francisco isn’t going to step up, and no one has been able to locate the Rams since leaving Philadelphia. Cardinals, come on down! They could easily open up a two, three or even four game lead on the Seahawks before they get healthy. The Cardinals must win games like this.
Pick: Cardinals

New England Patriots (1-0) vs. New York Jets (1-0)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Look, I didn’t cheer when Tom Brady got hurt (like one of my roommates and everyone from work that isn’t a Patriots fan), but I wasn’t broken up about it either. Karma baby, karma. To say New England had it coming is an understatement. It would have been more enjoyable if this had occurred during one of the Hooded Bums patented running up the score in the fourth quarter blowouts. It would have been better if one of the AFC East teams that have been on the wrong end of those games had done it. But the timing really couldn’t be better. Right out of the gate…BLAMMO! Ok, maybe I enjoyed it a little. I’m a bad person.

Either way, we’re going to find out about Brady and Belichick. If the Pats bring in Matt Cassel, and Cassel succeeds (meaning the Pats win 10 or 11 games and maybe a playoff game) then the greatness surrounding Brady diminishes. If Cassel, a no name quarterback who hasn’t started a game since 1999, can come in and lead the Pats to the playoffs, then anyone can do it. We’ll know that Brady succeeds not because of his talent, but the talent around him. However, if the Pats season tanks, and they miss the playoffs, then it’s Belichick who will lose his luster. Then we’ll know that all of his success was based on Brady being in the lineup. Without him, Belichick is nothing. So anti-Pats fans can’t lose! Considering his failure in Cleveland during the mid-90’s and his struggles with the Patriots before Brady, I’m putting my money on the Hooded Bum being the overrated one. And I wouldn’t mind seeing the Patriots tank to prove my point.
Pick: Jets

San Diego Chargers (0-1)(-1.5) vs. Denver Broncos (1-0)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
The Chargers were up five with about a minute to go. Looked like a sure win, right? Then you remember that Norv Turner is on their sideline and John Fox, a capable coach, was on the other. Actually, a warm body on the other sideline is usually good enough. That loss was inevitable.
Pick: Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-1)
8:15 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
The loser of the Vikings-Colts game finds themselves in an early 0-2 whole. Even worse is the predicament that Cleveland faces if they loses this one. They’d also be 0-2, with both loses coming at home, and one loss coming to their main competition in the AFC North. Pittsburgh would already be sitting two games up with a tie-breaker through two weeks. Hard to call it a must win this early, but the Browns really need to grab this game.

Cleveland won’t win by doing what they did last week. All I heard from CBS and FOX all day was how great the Cowboys offensive line looked and how much time Tony Romo had to throw. It’s kind of easy to look good when the Browns are only rushing three defensive linemen. Whenever the Browns sent five or more, they got to Romo relatively easily. But they didn’t do it a lot. The 3-4 defense isn’t working for the Browns, and they’re about to be gashed by the best rushing team in the league.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) vs. Houston Texans (0-1)(-5)
8:30 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Ah, Ravens fans. You can’t live with them, and you certainly don’t want to live anywhere around them. I haven’t seen them since January 2007, which was coincidently the last time the Ravens were relevant. Then they got embarrassed at home by the Colts in the playoffs. All of a sudden, the Redskins lose, the Thugs win, and they come out of whatever hole in the ground they’ve been in for the past 20 months.

Joe Flacco is not the second coming. He managed to beat one of the worst defenses in the league, at home, by seven points. 15-for-29 for 129 yards is not great. No picks, that’s a plus for sure. Good job not losing the game. But the Ravens scored their only two touchdowns on a 42-yard double-reverse and a busted play that turned into a 38-yard quarterback scramble. I wouldn’t count on that happening every week. Flacco may actually have to throw the ball more than 5 to 10 yards downfield every once and awhile. Let’s everyone settle down. He’s not Joe Montana. He’s not the next Rich Gannon. He wasn’t even the best rookie quarterback in the league last Sunday. The Ravens still have two games against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, along with games against the Redskins, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Colts, Jaguars and Titans. Let’s see what the record is at the end of that stretch.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens won this game and even beat Cleveland at home next week. Then things get much harder. When they play the Redskins on December 7th, if they have more than five wins, then I’ll be impressed.
Pick: Texans, Ravens cover


Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-0)(-7.5)
8:30 p.m. Texas Stadium
The first of two annual “stadium collapse games”. Here’s hoping the demolition to Texas Stadium starts a bit early.
Pick: Cowboys, Eagles cover

The Redskins host the Saints this week, preview coming soon.

2008 NFC Preview & Week 1 Picks

Here is the NFC preview, followed by week 1 picks.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: B+
Defense: B-
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: December (at NY Giants, Cleveland, at Washington, Dallas)

I hate to say it, but the Eagles are the best team in the conference if they are healthy. I don’t think Donovan McHernia has been fully healthy in three seasons. Judging on the last month of 2007 and the way he’s looked in training camp and preseason, I think he’s finally as close to 100% as he can be. Same goes for Brian Westbrook. This team was slowly getting into shape at the end of last season, but simply ran out of time to make a playoff push since they started in too big of a hole. The Eagles have proven over the course of the past decade that they are the deepest team in the division and the conference. The Eagles always have injury problems somewhere and always end up getting contributions from unknown players. The depth is why I really like the Eagles to win this tough division.

Injury concerns aside, the Eagles are the most balanced team in the division as well. Their offense and defense are perfect compliments for one another. Offensively, Westbrook brings balance, by himself, to the entire unit. He’s only behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai and Adrian Peterson as top back in the league. The receiving corps is still an issue, but Westbrook, tight end L.J. Smith and rookie DeSean Jackson (who will be starting by year’s end) are three weapons for McNabb. The passing game will not be as bad as people think (unless Westbrook gets hurt).

Defensively, the linebackers really appear to be weak. No one is going to be scared of Omar Gaither, Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong. I’m sure most fans have never even heard of the last two. But a good defensive line mixed with the best secondary in the division should cancel out the problems at LB. With the offense expected to score 21-27 points a game, the defense doesn’t have to be great. They just have to be respectable, and that’s exactly what they are.

If the Eagles stay healthy, they win this division. I don’t think it matters who comes out of the East, because that team won’t make the Super Bowl. The East teams are going to beat up on each other all season, and teams like New Orleans, Carolina and Seattle will take advantage of that in January.

2. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Record: 10-6

Offense: A-
Defense: C+
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: December (at Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, at Philadelphia)

On paper, this team looks ready to win the Super Bowl. Fortunately, this team isn’t as good as the hype they are generating. The Cowboys will not win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys will not win the division. In fact, the Cowboys, for the 13th straight season, won’t win a playoff game.

Dallas, for all the talent they have on their starting lineup, has no depth at all. If Tony Romo gets hurt, or the annoying receiver with a huge mouth gets hurt (as he has been known to do) or anyone on their front seven gets hurt, the Cowboys are in deep trouble.

Let’s take a look at this “mighty” offense. Romo has put up all kinds of numbers, but has yet to win a meaningful postseason game. Actually, he hasn’t won a meaningful regular season game. Terrell Owens is the only wide receiver of note. Jason Witten is the best pass catcher and route runner on the entire team. If either one of them go down, Romo will have one target to throw to. Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd are barely #3 caliber receivers. Marion Barber, for the first time since he was in high school, will be the featured back in an offense. I actually like the way he runs, but he refuses to protect himself and he runs straight up. As the featured back, over the course of a long season, he won’t last. I guarantee that Barber won’t play all 16 games this season.

The real problems for Dallas starts on the defensive end. For the last half of the season, the Cowboys struggled to generate any sort of pass rush. I don’t see how they fixed the problem in the off-season. The secondary is average, but with no pass rush, they will give up yards in chunks. The addition of Pacman is supposed to be the “missing piece” of the puzzle for Dallas. Oh really? A trouble-maker who hasn’t played in the NFL in almost two years is the reason that Dallas is going to make the leap to the Super Bowl? That’s laughable. First of all, no one leaves the game for that period of time and just picks up where they left off. This isn’t a Michael Jordan situation where you can just retire and come back. When was the last time someone retired, or in Pacman’s case, was forced out of the NFL for more than a season, then came back and performed as well as he used too? I can’t remember it ever happening. That brings me to my second point: Pacman wasn’t a good corner to begin with. He was a good kick returner, but an average cornerback. The secondary was already suspect, and the addition of Pacman doesn’t help at all.

The schedule is killer for Dallas. They should be 6-2 after the first 8 games. But check out the last 8. They have to play the Giants twice. They have road games at Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. They also have a home game against Seattle. Assuming they beat San Francisco and Baltimore, I can’t see them winning more than two of those other six games.

Finally, the weak-willed Wade Phillips is still in charge. At the first sign of trouble, or at the first two or three game losing streak, this team will turn on him. All the personality issues in Dallas have all been building over the past few years. They are due for a blow-up, and it will happen if the Cowboys struggle. The talent is here for a 10-win season, but without depth, a decent coach and with a tough schedule and tough division, this is far from a Super Bowl team.

3. Washington Redskins
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: C+
Defense: B
Coaching: C
Tough Month: September (at NY Giants, New Orleans, Arizona, at Dallas)

See game preview. My stance on a 9-7 season has not changed since Thursday night.

4. New York Giants
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: B-
Defense: B
Coaching: C
Tough Month: December (Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota)

Again, for some of what I think, check the Redskins game preview. I do think the Giants were a fluke. They were not the best team in the league last season. They were not one of the four or five best teams in the league last season. They had a great final month after four average ones. They lost a few key players and did little to replace them. The schedule is harder than last year. The division is tougher than last year. The best thing that came out of last season is the fact that people actually think Tom Coughlin is a good coach. It just bought the rest of the NFL at least three more season of Coughlin in New York, which will retard whatever growth the Giants are capable of. Thursday’s outcome had very little to do with the Giants and had more to do with the Redskins not being able to get out of their own way. The great Giants defense only sacked Jason Campbell once, forced no turnovers, and only got the Redskins off the field because the Skins receivers ran 5-yard routes on 3rd and 6. All that against a team with a rookie coach and a new offensive system. I still think this team will finish last in the division.

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 10-6

Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: C+
Tough Month: September (at Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, at Tennessee)

I’m not going to spend too much time on North division teams because there are no teams that are worth spending time on. This is the worst division in football. Lost in all the Adrian Peterson hype (and he does deserve it) is the fact that Tarvaris Jackson is still the Vikings quarterback. Only J.T. O’Sullivan, Brodie Croyle and Joe Flacco will be worse opening day starters, and only Croyle will have a worse overall career. Expect to see a lot teams, if not every team that plays Minnesota, stack 8-men or more in the box and force Jackson to beat them.

The Vikings defense is still good against the run, and bad against the pass. The addition of Jared Allen to the line will help the pass rush, but still won’t make up for the lousy secondary. The linebackers are strictly average. Teams with good passing games and a decent run defense will dominate the Vikings. This team is too one-dimensional on both sides of the ball.

Playing in the North helps, as they are the best team in the division and should come up with 5 easy wins that way. But they still have to play 4 games against the AFC South and the better-than-advertised NFC South, so getting to 10 wins won’t be easy. But someone in this division has to do it.

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: C
Defense: B+
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: November (at Tennessee, at Minnesota, Chicago, at New Orleans, Carolina)

The Packers made their bed, and now they’re going to have to lay in it. The Packers knew that Brett Favre was a self-righteous primadona who cared only about himself. Yet, they believed him when he said he was retiring in March, and believed him in June when he said he wasn’t coming back. SURPRISE!

When Favre said he was going to come back, the Packers should have had two choices. The first would have been to welcome him back as the starter, no questions asked. Tell Aaron Rodgers “tough luck kid, maybe next year”. The second would have been to cut ties with him immediately and back Rodgers from Day 1 of training camp. The Packers chose the third option. They opened the window slightly for Favre’s return, but only as a backup to Rodgers, who is supposed to be the future of the franchise. Huh? Did that choice make sense to anyone outside the Packers organization? I think even the most basic fans could of told you that would open a can of worms that would result in a media swarm descending upon Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers’ confidence being destroyed before opening weekend, and the eventual ugly divorce between Favre and the fan base that idolized him. Enjoyable for me, not so much for Packers fans.

Again, the Packers made their deal with the devil, and then traded him, and they’ll have to suffer through a rough season. With Favre, or with a confident Aaron Rodgers, this team could easily win the North. They have neither one, so they won’t.

3. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: B-
Defense: D
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: December (Minnesota, at Indianapolis, New Orleans, at Green Bay)

You know it’s a sad state of affairs when Jon Kitna is the best starting quarterback in the division…by far. Another year of the Matt Millen regime means another year of promising offensive weapons, only to be done in by an awful offensive line and an equally bad defense. Very few things in football stay constant. The Lions being terrible is one thing you can always count on.

4. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 5-11

Offense: D
Defense: B
Coaching: B
Tough Month: September (at Indianapolis, at Carolina, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia)

Who would you rather have as your starting quarterback? Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton? Well, I guess that depends on whether you’d rather shoot yourself in the arm or in the leg. The Bears are starting with Orton, which means nothing other than he’ll be charged with the opening day loss at Indianapolis. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be behind center. Chances are it’s going to be a lousy quarterback.

The Bears are the NFC’s version of the Ravens. They possess a once proud defense that is no longer exceptional and can no longer carry an inept offense. Few teams will score more than 20 points against Chicago, which means they’ll be in just about every game. However, the Bears will be lucky to score 14 points in any game this season. It will be another long year for Lovie Smith, who is a good coach with a bad team.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 12-4

Offense: A-
Defense: C+
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: October (Minnesota, Oakland, at Carolina, vs San Diego [in London])

Like the Eagles, assuming everyone is healthy, this is a team that’s going to compete and be much better than they were last season. The 0-4 start combined with the Deuce McAllister injury really sunk the Saints in 2007. They spent most of October and November climbing out of the hole before fading in December. The Saints have a tough first half again, but if they’re hovering around 5-3 in November, they should be able to cruise to a division title.

Drew Brees is back and fully healthy. Brees, like most of the Saints, struggled mightily the first four weeks before putting up pretty good numbers the rest of the way. McAllister appears healthy as well, but it takes more than one year to recover completely from an ACL injury. Everyone is still waiting on Reggie Bush to make the jump to elite back. That may never happen, but Bush is still a versatile weapon for New Orleans. The addition of Jeremy Shockey makes for a solid tandem with Marques Colston and David Patten. The young offensive line has another year of experience under their belt. The offense should be ready to go for the Saints.

Defensively, the trade to get Jonathan Vilma was crucial. They finally add a presence at middle linebacker that the Saints haven’t had in years. The rest of the defense is slowly getting better. Sedrick Ellis was a good draft pick to help on the line. Randall Gay was a good signing in free agency. The outside linebacker combination of Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita is the real weakness for the Saints. Teams that stretch the field with a good running game and use tight ends and slot receivers for 10-yard routes should be able to move the ball against New Orleans. All the defense has to do is keep the opponent around 20 points and let the offense take care of the rest.

2. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: A-
Tough Month: December (Tampa Bay, Denver, at NY Giants, at New Orleans)

When Jake Delhomme went down in 2007, so did the Panthers season. Like the Saints, Carolina finished 7-9, but their record never matched the talent. Delhomme is recovered and I expect him to have a big season. Jonathan Stewart looked real good in preseason, and will be part of a good running back tandem with DeAngelo Williams. Assuming Steve Smith stops punching teammates in the face, he forms a nice combination with Muhsin Muhammad, who was brought back from Chicago in the offseason. The offensive line is good, not great. Pass blocking has been a concern for Carolina in the past, and with a quarterback who has a history of injuries, the Panthers must improve in that category to have offensive success.

The back seven on the defense compare favorably to the rest of the league. It’s not going to be easy passing against a defense with playmakers like Jon Beason, Landon Johnson and Ken Lucas. Julius Peppers is the only defensive line player of note, and he’s never able to play a full season. The suspect front four is the main reason this defense has fallen off a little bit in the last couple of seasons.

The Panthers are another one of those teams that can’t seem to stay healthy. The talent is in place for a good season. John Fox is one of the best coaches in the league. Without Fox, or with a lesser coach, the Panthers probably would have won 4 games last season instead of 7. The fact that his job is possibly in jeopardy if the Panthers don’t do well is ridiculous. If the main players stay healthy, Carolina should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but that may not be enough to save Fox.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: C+
Defense: B+
Coaching: B+
Tough Month: October (at Denver, Carolina, Seattle, at Dallas)

Thanks to the injury to Delhomme and the Saints early season struggles, the Buccaneers were able to post a 9-7 record and win the division. 9-7 won’t be good enough to win the South this season, and the Buccaneers won’t make it to 9 wins anyway.

I will say this about Tampa: They are a very young team that has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. In about two seasons, this team is going to be scary good if they can figure out what is going on at quarterback. This season, Jeff Garcia will go behind center once again. This is a team that has used or had the option to use Garcia, Josh McKown, Chris Simms, Brian Griese, Brad Gradkowski – even Jake Plummer – in the last couple of seasons. It’s a position of turnover right now for Tampa, and it may be something they want to address in the draft in 2009. Garcia is a good option for right now, but at 38, he doesn’t have many good seasons left in him.

Earnest Graham will take the carries with Cadillac Williams still struggling with injuries. Joey Galloway will once again be Garcia’s primary weapon. While Graham and Williams are here to stay, Galloway is 36. Like Garcia, he won’t be around much longer. The lack of a consistent passing game will keep the Bucs down this season. They’ll win a bunch of games because of their defense, but not enough to compete with New Orleans and Carolina. With their upcoming salary cap room, if Tampa can sign some big name receivers and find a decent and young quarterback, the rest of the players are in place for the Bucs to be successful for a long time. But not this year.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 4-12

Offense: D
Defense: C-
Coaching: D
Tough Month: November (at Oakland, New Orleans, Denver, Carolina, at San Diego)

Like Miami, there’s no point in spending a lot of time talking about Atlanta. Matt Ryan will be better than most people think, but he’s not in a situation to succeed this season or next. Michael Turner and Roddy White are decent weapons for Ryan, but the offensive line is terrible. Hopefully they don’t turn Ryan into a second version of David Carr. It will be another ugly year, or two, in Atlanta while this team rebuilds from the ground up.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: B
Defense: B
Coaching: A-
Tough Month: October (at NY Giants, Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, at San Francisco)

The other three teams in the NFC West continue to do nothing which means the Seahawks can just keep cruising to another division title. Seattle continues to make minor adjustments to the roster, but all they really have to do is make sure they stay in the West division. The Cardinals will be their only real challenge, and their defense is still struggling.

The Seahawks cut ties with Shaun Alexander, which marks an incredible two year plummet from NFL MVP to unemployed. While the Seahawks running game with a healthy Alexander was phenomenal, the Julius Jones-Maurice Morris combination will be better than the revolving door the Seahawks used last year. Assuming Deion Branch returns at midseason as projected, Matt Hasselbeck will continue to have a variety of receivers to throw to and a good offensive line which to throw behind.

The defense, to most of the country, is somewhat unknown. They possess a lot of playmakers but few complete defenders. Lofa Tatupu, Patrick Kearney, Rocky Bernard, Julian Peterson and Marcus Trufant are just some of the talented players they have. It continues to be a good group, but certainly not an elite group. Assuming the opposing quarterback has time, he will be able to throw deep against the Seahawks secondary.

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last ride on Seattle’s sideline. It’s shaping up to be a good one, but one that will fall a little short of the Super Bowl.

2. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 8-8

Offense: B+
Defense: C
Coaching: C+
Tough Month: December (St. Louis, Minnesota, at New England, Seattle)

Kurt Warner seems ageless, the receivers are still talented, the defense is slowly getting better, but it’s another season of mediocrity in the desert. Nothing says .500 more than the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals, just like the Lions, continue to ignore the gaping holes in their offensive line. Levi Brown is a good right tackle. The rest of the line is well below NFL standards. Combine that with 30-going-on-50 running back Edgerrin James, and there’s a good reason the Cardinals were 29th in rushing last season despite having the fifth best passing offense.

The defense can stop the run, but still hasn’t been able to figure out how to stop opponents from beating them deep. Adrian Wilson is one of the NFL’s top safeties, but he doesn’t have a lot help around him. Roderick Hood and Eric Green could be the two worst starting corners in the league. A good passing game and a bad passing defense means a lot of high-scoring and entertaining games, but not enough wins for Arizona.

3. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: B-
Defense: D-
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: October (at Washington, Dallas, at New England)

Of their three best players, two are always hurt. It is unlikely that Marc Bulger and Orlando Pace will stay healthy through the entire season. Their other top player, Steven Jackson, won’t stay healthy either. He is what we call a “Two-H Player”. He held-out, which usually means hamstring problems. It happens every year to a holdout, especially a running back or receiver. They’re not in camp on time to get in shape, and they get hurt relatively early in the season trying to push it too hard.

Injuries aside, the Rams are a shell of their former talented selves. The defense is just depleted. There’s nothing there. They were horrible against the run and horrible against the pass. In a division with Seattle and Arizona, that’s a formula for disaster. Other than adding Chris Long, not much was done about this porous unit. Add to the mix a pretty tough first half of the season, and there’s no reason to give St. Louis any more than 6 wins.

4. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 5-11

Offense: D
Defense: D+
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: October (New England, Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Seattle)

See Atlanta and Miami. Nothing here worth talking about. The 49ers have no quarterback, no receivers, no offensive line, no defensive line and a bad coach. Other than Frank Gore, a couple of talented linebackers (Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes) and a decent kicking game, the 49ers are overmatched at every position. Gore could run for 2,000 yards and it wouldn’t matter. Also, Gore will not rush for 2,000 yards. Not even close.

NFC Wildcard
(4) Minnesota beats (5) Dallas
(6) Carolina beats (3) Philadelphia

NFC Divisional Round
(1) New Orleans beats (6) Carolina
(2) Seattle beats (4) Minnesota

NFC Championship
New Orleans over Seattle

SUPER BOWL XLIII
Indianapolis 27, New Orleans 17

Now to the week 1 picks, my bread and butter. I was 162-88, including the playoffs, overall in 2007. Against the spread, I was 138-104-8. That’s pretty damn good. And even though both of those records were impressive, it was actually the worst records I’ve put up in the past three seasons. During the course of three seasons, I’m now 500-255 (66.2%) overall. Against the spread in three seasons I’m 415-311-29. So this is the place for picks. Since I just recapped all 32 teams, I’ll keep the game previews very short this week. Let’s see if we can get started on the right foot. As always, these picks shouldn’t be used for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Rookie quarterback + rookie head coach = an easy pick.
Pick: Bengals

New York Jets (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Can Favre win his first game for the Jets? Not if Chad Pennington has anything to say about it. Revenge will be swift.
Pick: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-16)
Brodie Croyle playing on the road, in what will be a monsoon thanks to Tropical Storm Hanna and facing the Patriots defense. Yikes.
Pick: Patriots

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Ben Roethlisberger against the Texans defense, or Matt Schwab about the Steelers defense? Choice seems pretty simple.
Pick: Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Tennessee Titans
If the Titans are going to compete in the South, they have to win games like this.
Pick: Jaguars

Detroit Lions (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
What I said about Baltimore goes for Atlanta.
Pick: Lions

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Seattle opened with a win across the country in Tampa last year. Don’t know why they’re the slight dogs here.
Pick: Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Big game for the Saints if they want to take back the NFC South. Must protect that home field/floodwater.
Pick: Saints

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
This one will get ugly. I’d be surprised if the Eagles won by less than 17.
Pick: Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Cleveland Browns
An interesting opening game. Maybe the Cowboys problems start by Lake Erie.
Pick: Browns

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-9.5)
I see the Chargers winning, but that spread seems to be a bit too high.
Pick: Chargers, Panthers cover

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals wideouts should have a field day against the 49ers secondary. Only 2.5? Sure, why not.
Pick: Cardinals

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
It will be interesting to see how close to 100% Peyton Manning is against a good defense.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Let’s just say I don’t have any confidence betting with Aaron Rodgers. At least not yet.
Pick: Vikings

Denver Broncos (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Toughest game of the weekend to predict. I really like the Raiders at home, but I just can’t do it.
Pick: Broncos

Redskins at Giants: Zorn Again

Washington Redskins at New York Giants
7:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
It was an interesting off-season to say the least. A coach leaves, an offensive coordinator is hired, a nationwide coaching search is undertaken, no big names can be found, the big name assistant coaches are ignored, the offensive coordinator is promoted to head coach, a bizarre draft unfolds followed by an up-and-down preseason. It wouldn’t be an off-season without several major events and subsequent panics. That brings us to September 4th. Without further ado, let’s meet your 2008 Washington Redskins.

Coaches: Without doubt, the biggest change in the off-season and the biggest question coming into the regular season. Jim Zorn seems like a nice guy. He seems like he could be an awfully good offensive coordinator. His taxes are probably up to date, and I’m sure his credit rating is impeccable. But should he be the head coach of the Redskins?

I’ve been torn on Zorn from Day 1. The hiring is bold, and the effect is unpredictable (even for The Predictor himself). That may be exactly what this franchise needed after four seasons of Joe Gibbs football. Don’t get me wrong, I love Joe Gibbs football (especially considering the alternatives of Norv Turner football and Steve Spurrier football). But Gibbs was predictable. He was boring. It was as if your grandfather was coaching the team. So you knew there was going to be consistency, but the other team knew that as well and usually knew exactly what was coming. Over the last four years, the Redskins hit a wall. They had too much talent, both on the field and on the sideline, to be anything less than a 6 or 7 win team. However, there wasn’t enough creativity or excitement around the team to generate anything more than a 10-win team. Clinton Portis can only dress up in costumes so many times.

Zorn is definitely the solution to that problem. But with the change comes the risk that this team will be much worse than anything Gibbs could have possibly produced. At times this preseason, Zorn has looked and sounded great. He made the players practice hard during two-a-days, but kept the atmosphere light and enjoyable. It sounded as if the players were actually having fun. However, Zorn has already made some crucial mistakes. He’s called out established veterans on several occasions. He bowed willingly as the incompetent Vinny Cerrato made several curious draft picks. He’s allowed the illusion of upper management controlling roster moves to exist, which instantly damages his credibility among players. So all in all, Zorn is predictably being unpredictable.


Jim Zorn...or Jim Zorn Robot? I'll tell you this, his hairstyle doesn't say "head coach".

So, is he the right man for the job? Right now, I say no. This business with benching Jon Jansen a week before the season starts is not smart. You don’t bench the longest tenured Redskin, a guy who has fought back after major injuries and played with two broken hands, this close to the opener. I don’t care if may be the right decision (more on that in a moment). Even if you decide to cut punter Derrick Frost, you have to stand up and take ownership of that decision. You can’t allow it’s to seem that the only reason the team is cutting Frost is because they spent a draft pick on a different punter. Anyone who followed the Skins knew the competition was a farce. Again, it might be the right decision, but it sets a bad precedent. You can’t yell, embarrass and deride rookies who are actually hurt because they are hurt. Injuries happen. If a player is coming off of knee surgery and his knee swells up, that’s not an opportunity to bash the player’s commitment. I’m sure Malcolm Kelly didn’t plan his injury out. Setbacks happen, you have to deal with it. And you certainly don’t bash the team based on a couple of preseason losses. Zorn’s reaction to the losses worries me more than then losses themselves.

Zorn is the ultimate wild card. This hiring may have been a stroke of genius. The West Coast Offense (which I’ve never been a fan of) may be exactly what Jason Campbell needs. The hiring of Zorn and his personality may be exactly what this team needs right now. Or this could all be the beginning of a monumental failure. We’ll know a lot more in December.

Offense: We’ll start up front with the offensive line. The left side of the line is solid. Chris Samuels, Pete Kendall and Casey Rabach are all fine players. Kendall and Rabach have normal wear and tear on them, but have never been a serious injury concern. While Samuels always seems to be dinged-up, he’ll often play through it. He is a multi-year Pro Bowler who still has several good seasons left in him.

The right side of the line has quickly become an issue. Let’s start with Jansen. Since I have behind-the-scenes access to the team, I’m going to let you all in on a dirty little secret. The last couple of years, even before Jansen broke his leg, there had been whispers throughout the organization about replacing him. Jansen had been slipping for some time. Gibbs was afraid to do it out of loyalty and because there was no one better available. Zorn had no previous ties with Jansen, so he wasn’t afraid to name Stephon Heyer the starter for opening day. Heyer isn’t better than Jansen right now, but Zorn saw the same things that Gibbs and his staff saw. They figure it’s better to let Heyer get more playing time right now and become better than to wait another year or two and have no where else to turn when Jansen’s legs finally give out. As for Randy Thomas, I think the rumors of his demise are a bit premature. Thomas, when fully healthy, is still a terrific guard. I don’t see what others are talking about when they say he can no longer block stronger defensive linemen. Overall, the offensive line is a veteran bunch that has played together for a long time. Familiarity is something that can’t be overvalued when talking about o-lines. The Redskins line may not be as strong as it was a couple of years ago, but it is still a Top 10-12 unit in the NFL.

The Redskins have a myriad of weapons. Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts are still a dangerous backfield combination. Santana Moss is finally 100% healthy, and poised for a season similar to the one he had in 2005. Antwaan Randle El is an x-factor. Chris Cooley is a player that about 25 teams would love to have and would be an upgrade over what they currently have. All the Skins need is for either Kelly or Devin Thomas to step up. A talented possession receiver adds another dimension to this offense that was missing under Gibbs.


The Redskins best offensive weapon. Please get the ball to Chris.

That brings us to quarterback. I’ll spare you the lengthy discussion since I’ve touched on it so many times in the past and will continue to do so throughout the season. I don’t think Jason Campbell is a franchise quarterback. He is not the long-term solution for the Redskins. He is the best option this season, and will probably be the best option next year. He is certainly a better option than Todd Collins, despite the run had at the end of 2007. If Zorn can’t make Campbell better than neither one deserves to be here. In my opinion, it would be wise for the Redskins to look elsewhere in the off-season. And that doesn’t mean look to Colt Brennan, who looked great against third-stringers in the preseason, but would probably be a poor man’s version of Philip Rivers in games that count. The offense has enough personnel around Campbell that, despite the new system, he should succeed and show major improvement by the end of the season.

Defense: Like the offense, the names are there. London Fletcher, Marcus Washington, Jason Taylor, Andre Carter, LaRon Landry are all big names and all have Pro-Bowl type years left in them. Guys like Cornelius Griffin, Shaun Springs and Fred Smoot are all supporting cast players. But all except Taylor have a history of nagging to moderate injuries and Taylor was just recently hurt in the preseason. So can the majority of these guys stay healthy for the season? Doubtful. That’s where the defensive problem comes into focus. In a perfect world, in a Madden-world where you can turn off injuries, this is a Top 10 defense. But if a couple of these players go down for a significant amount of time, then there is no depth for the Redskins to fall back on. It’s not like the Skins are alone in that regard. It’s unusual in the NFL for a team to be stacked 1 through 53. Unfortunately, the Redskins have all their depth on the offensive side of the ball. So other than Anthony Montgomery and H.B. Blades, there are no capable backups on defense (And you might notice I’m not including Carlos Rogers anywhere in this paragraph except for these parentheses. Rogers doesn’t count. No one should count Rogers for anything. I’m not even sure that Rogers counts himself).

For now, all I can do is analyze the starters. Up front, the Redskins are stronger than many believe. Taylor may not have a great statistical year, but he should free up Carter to have a better season. Carter had a solid season last year, but no one in the sports media cared to pay attention. His name isn’t Andre Favre or Andre Romo. Griffin and Kedric Golston are an above-average group of nose tackles, and Montgomery does provide adequate depth.


Jason may be smiling now, but it's Andre Carter that will be smiling at the end of the year when we look at the stat sheet.

On the flip side, the linebackers may not be as good as people expect. Fletcher should have another great season. The outside linebackers worry me. Washington is going to miss a decent amount of games. He’s always hurt. He rarely plays through it. He’s also been on the decline the past few seasons. That’s not to say he can’t have a great year, but I don’t think he will. The jury is still out on Rocky McIntosh, who was slowly making strides before his injury last season. If he take a step up, or if his knee is still a factor, then the Redskins could have major issues on the outside.

The secondary is in the top half of defensive backfields, but certainly not an elite unit. Add Sean Taylor to the mix, and you’d really have something. Tragically, that isn’t a possibility. Springs and Smoot are good corners that both have deficiencies. Smoot can’t tackle and Springs is like Marcus Washington…he’ll never play through injuries. He’s also lost a step. Landry will have to be the leader with Reed Doughty next to him. I think that will limit Landry’s effectiveness much like Sean Taylor’s was limited in his first few seasons without a competent safety next to him. Only last year, playing next to Landry, did Taylor begin to realize his full potential.

Overall the defense is going to be good, but certainly not dominating. If the offense thinks it can sit back, score 14-16 points and escape with wins, it’s sorely mistaken. At the same time, I do have confidence in the defense early in the season, before they get worn down by injuries, to keep the offense in the game while they adjust to the West Coast Offense.

Special teams: Shaun Suisham is a middle of the pack kicker. He’ll make a few clutch kicks and miss a few as well. The Skins haven’t had a clutch kicker since Chip Lohmiller and that won’t change this season. Durant Brooks is an unknown in the NFL, but he had a heck of a college career. Punting in college isn’t a whole lot different than punting in the NFL. There’s just a lot more pressure. Frost was cut because he couldn’t punt consistently and couldn’t come through in big slots. The Redskins have lost at least two games in each of the past two or three seasons because of bad punting and field position. Frost couldn’t get it done, so it makes sense to give someone else a shot.

Overview: I’m getting ticked by all these preseason publications saying the Redskins are going to go 5-11, while in the same publication, the Ravens or Falcons or Lions are picked to finish 6-10. I know the Redskins play in a tough division, and they have a new coach, but talent-wise, they match up with just about any team in the league. Just go through the names: Portis, Moss, Randle El, Cooley, Samuels, Taylor, Carter, Fletcher, Landry. 5-11 teams don’t have rosters like this. I think on raw talent alone, the Redskins can muster 7 wins at the minimum.

The opening schedule is rough. Three road division games in the first five weeks is a bit unfair. Again, I can’t believe the NFL continues to allow the Patriots to play the easiest schedule in the league while the Redskins have to play the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles on the road before Columbus Day. Can’t someone in the NFL scheduling office take a look at the schedules after they’re done and say “Hmm…that doesn’t look right. No other team in the league has to do this. Maybe we should change that.” All they would have to do is have the Redskins play a home game against the Cowgirls in Week 4 and give Dallas their home game in November. There, problem fixed!

With that said, after the first five weeks, there is a huge opportunity for the Redskins to get healthy. The Redskins must, must, must get through the first five games at no less than 2-3. 3-2 would be ideal (well, 5-0 would be ideal…but that ain’t gonna happen). After that, they have four of the next five at home and the only road game is against Detroit. And with games against Baltimore, Cincinnati and San Francisco in December, if they’re close at the end of the season to the top of the division or the last playoff birth, their schedule will help. I think when it’s all said and done, the Redskins are going to find themselves exactly where they were last year: 9-7 and fighting for the last playoff spot in the NFC.

As for Thursday, I actually like the Skins in the Meadowlands. Don’t know why. Could be the fact that the Giants’ heads will be too big to fit in their helmets after an off-season of hearing how great they are. Or all the pregame distractions and ring ceremonies. Or that Eli Manning had seven months to realize that he’s not Peyton and shouldn’t play like he did in January. As I’ll explain in my NFC preview later in the week, I’m on the “Giants were a fluke” train and I think they’ll finish dead last in the division. Their greatest strength, the defensive line, has suddenly become a question mark. You take Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora off that defense, and the defensive line becomes strictly average and makes average linebackers and secondary even worse. I know that the Skins usually don’t do well in the swamps and pig farms of New Jersey (aside from last year’s 22-10 beating), so just call it a hunch. Should be close, and it should be fun. It’s great to have football back.

Week 1 picks and NFC preview in a couple of days.