NFL Week 4: 49 Problems, But The Schedule Ain't One

A 9-6 week did get me over the hump and put the overall record at a measly 23-21. However, it was an ugly 6-9 record against the spread, which puts that record to an even worse 20-23-1 on the season. Yuck. Something’s wrong with me this year.

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (3-0)(-9) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I can’t remember the Chiefs ever being more than a touchdown underdog at home. Coming off a 24-point beating at miserable Atlanta, I’m not shocked that they are. The likelihood of the Chiefs going 0-14 is getting better and better each week, especially since they’ve already lost two of the four winnable games on their schedule.
Pick: Broncos

Cleveland Browns (0-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (0-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
What do the two O’s in Ohio stand for? The win column of its two NFL teams. Cincinnati being favored by 3 points at home is basically Vegas’ way of saying “pick-em”. The Bengals showed signs of life last week in the Meadowlands while the Browns have yet to show up for a game. Maybe Cleveland’s awful defense is exactly what Cincinnati needs to see to get their dormant offense going.
Pick: Bengals

Houston Texans (0-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)(-7.5)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
How important is this game for Jacksonville? Well, considering they have Pittsburgh and Denver the next two weeks, I’d say it’s pretty important. A loss against a team they should dominate would help the Jaguars to a 1-5 start. They must win here to have some hope of catching up when their schedule gets easier in November.
Pick: Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) vs. New York Jets (1-2)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Ken Whisenhunt’s decision to keep the Cardinals here in the D.C. area after their game against the Skins was a smart move. The Cardinals have actually had to do less traveling this week than the Jets, who had to fly back from San Diego on Tuesday morning. I think the gamble pays off for Whisenhunt. It will help with the jetlag that affected Arizona in their loss to the Skins (the Cards didn’t wake up until late in the 2nd quarter). It also helps that the Cardinals are actually a pretty good team while the Jets aren’t.
Pick: Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
No, the 49ers are not good. Stop making a case for them. Beating the Lions at home is not impressive. Beating the banged-up Seahawks in overtime isn’t either. Two years ago, the 49ers used a relatively easy first half schedule to hang around .500 until November. Then their season went down the tubes. The upcoming stretch of New Orleans, New England, Philadelphia and the Giants should help their 2008 follow a similar path.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-1)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Last week, Carolina allowed Minnesota to get off the mat, dust themselves off, find their second wind, and swing themselves back into the NFC picture. Something tells me that loss is going to cost the Panthers, and maybe a handful of other NFC teams, later in the season.
Pick: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings (1-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
A win by the Titans would have them sitting pretty. They’d be 4-0 with two winnable games and a bye week before their showdown with Indianapolis on Monday night. If they win here, there’s only 4 or 5 games the rest of the way that Tennessee should lose. Looking at this schedule, I’m not so sure why I only picked them to win 7 or 8 games. May have been a mistake on my part. Anyway, the Vikings seemed to actually rally around Gus Frerotte (I’m not making this up). So I’m actually going to make another mistake and go with Minnesota to make it two in a row.
Pick: Vikings

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
I continue to be impressed with Tampa Bay early in the season. Having Brian Griese throw the ball 67 times isn’t going to win you a lot of ballgames, yet the Bucs still overcame a 10-point 4th quarter deficit on the road to beat the Bears. It was a big win for Tampa. This win would be even bigger. Tampa needs to get to the quarter pole at 3-1 since they may not win a lot of games in October (Denver, Carolina and Dallas are all on the schedule). As for Green Bay, their win against Minnesota was decent. But they struggled putting away the Lions and looked terrible at home against Dallas. I still think this team is going to hover near or below .500 for the entire season.
Pick: Buccaneers.

Buffalo Bills (3-0)(-8) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-3)
4:05 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
I knew the Bills would beat the Raiders and I also knew it would be much closer than expected. Buffalo proved that they are not yet an elite team, but they may not have to be to win the AFC East. They certainly won’t have to be to beat the Rams. The Rams and Chiefs combined may not win a game until after Election Day.
Pick: Bills

San Diego Chargers (1-2)(-7.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-2)
4:05 p.m. McAfee Coliseum
If the Raiders upset the Bills on the road, then Lane Kiffin would have had a chance. Blowing a big lead in the fourth quarter pretty much sealed his fate. Now we just await the formality from the longest firing in the history of professional sports.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2)
8:15 p.m. Soldier Field
The Bears could easily be, and should be, 3-0 to start the season. They’ve lost two 10-point 4th quarter leads in the past two weeks. I still think this Bears team is better than their record and 4th quarter play indicates, and I also think the Eagles are not as good as people are making them out to be. It won’t help that Fragile Donovan McNabb is already hurt. Brian Westbrook, who accounts for about 91.5% of the Eagles offense, is also banged up. I think we see an angry Bears team pull an upset.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (2-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)(-5.5)
8:30 p.m. Heinz Field
Let’s see…no Willie Parker or Casey Hampton. A banged up Ben Roethlisberger. A new and supposedly improved Ravens team. Points to an upset, right? But remind me again, had Joe Flacco ever had to start a primetime game on the road against a divisional opponent with a great defense? No? Then take the Steelers and the points.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New York Giants, New England, Seattle

In just a couple of days, a preview for you know what. Seriously, you should know. If you don't, why are you here? Certainly not for help picking games since the record has been awful so far.