Redskins at Cowboys: Closing The Hole

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (3-0)
4:15 p.m. Texas Stadium
So here we are. Game number 97 against the hated Star. The final game played between the two at Texas Stadium. One team has suddenly been anointed as the front-runner in the 2008-09 NFL season. The other comes in to the contest with their season potentially at a crossroads. Or so some would have you believe.

The Redskins check in at 2-1. I was all set to describe the Skins upcoming situation, but John Clayton (one of ESPN’s few decent reporters) did it better than I could. Here’s what he wrote a couple of days ago:

“The Skins embark on their most important two-game road trip of the season. It starts Sunday in Dallas and concludes in Week 5 in Philadelphia. If they win at least one of those games, the Redskins will establish themselves as contenders for the NFC East title. Losing both will make them 0-3 in the division and extreme long shots.

The NFC East is the beast of the NFL. Just ask the Packers and the Steelers. After their narrow Monday night victory over the Eagles in Week 2, the Cowboys dominated the Packers six days later at Lambeau Field. The Eagles, also on only six days' rest, then played more physically than a powerful Steelers team. Through three weeks, the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants rank as the league's three best teams.

But the Redskins don't have to hide. Despite their division, it's not out of the question for them to have a 10-win season. Like their division-mates, the Redskins play four games against the NFC West and four against the AFC North. Barring unfoerseen events, any NFC East team could go 3-1 or better against each of those divisions. In the two non-common games, the Redskins already have beaten the Saints and get to play the woeful Lions. If things go right, the Redskins could think about an 8-2 non-division record.

The key to their season is doing something positive in the NFC East. They can't afford to go 1-5 in division play. A split in the next two weeks could make them players in the division race because they finish the regular season with three NFC East home games between Nov. 16 and Dec. 21.”

Most of his points are valid and I agree with. This will be a very important two-game swing for the Skins. The NFC East is clearly the best division in football. Despite that fact, a 10-win season is not just a possibility for the Redskins, it is more than likely (as Clayton said, barring unforeseen events like injuries, etc…). However, I don’t agree with the assumption that the Redskins have to win one of the next two games. The Redskins had to beat both New Orleans and Arizona. Those were musts. Injuries aside, the worst that can happen to the Redskins over the next two weeks is to lose two divisional road games and drop to 2-3. However, as Clayton reminds you, the Redskins still have all three of their divisional home games remaining. And 2-3 isn’t terrible considering that the Redskins get to play the Rams, Browns and Lions in succession after this two game roadie. So even with two losses, which is a distinct possibility, the Redskins have plenty of time remaining to get healthy thanks to a somewhat easier second half schedule.

Let’s assume the Redskins lose both of these upcoming games. They’d be 2-3. As Clayton said, the Redskins should be able to go both 3-1 against the awful AFC North and the even worse NFC West. Since the Redskins already beat Arizona, that would put them at seven wins. Let’s also assume that they beat Detroit, which isn’t a stretch at all. That’s eight wins and five losses. That leaves the three divisional home games. If the Redskins are able to hold serve at home and win two of those three, that’s 10 wins. Clayton said 1-5 in the NFC East won’t cut it…and he’s right. However, 2-4 in the NFC East may be enough. In any case, a good team, which I believe the Redskins are, should be able to win at least two, if not all three of those home games. So 11 wins isn’t out of the question either.

Just remember that at the beginning of the season I said that the Redskins couldn’t afford to start off worse than 2-3. That’s already been guaranteed. They can’t be worse than that after five rough weeks and entering the softer part of their schedule. That said, it would be great if the Redskins can steal just one of the next two. That’s all I’m asking for. Just one of the next two. I’d prefer beating these schmucks this week, but if you told me that a loss to Dallas would ensure a win against Philly, I’d take that in a heartbeat as well. One win in the next two weeks is basically a free game for the Redskins and gives them one or two games to play around with later on. Right now, I have the Redskins beating the Browns, Bengals, Ravens, 49ers, Rams and Lions. I would have the Seahawks game as a toss up and the Steelers game as 2-to-1 odds against Washington. But maybe Brady Quinn re-energizes the Browns in a few weeks. Maybe the Bengals offense wakes up. Maybe the Ravens aren’t as bad as I think they are. Ditto for the 49ers. When you factor in injuries, a win on the road in the division gives the Redskins a little extra breathing room for later in the season.

Back to the game. What do we make of Dallas? Well, depending on who you listen to, they are either the greatest team to set foot on a football field in the past 10 seasons, or the greatest team to set foot on a football field in the past 20. The experts are still undecided on that. The consensus seems to be that they are far and away the best team in the NFL. Some have even started comparing them to last year’s Patriots. I assume that to mean some writers/reporters/analysts expect them to go undefeated through the regular season. And I guess for a team with a weak defense, a big-mouth receiver, a quarterback that’s won nothing important and a spineless coach, they have looked pretty good in the first three weeks of the season.

Let’s look at the Cowboys three wins. Their latest came at Green Bay. Ok, I’ll give them that one. I’m not sure how good the Packers really are. They seem to have 7-9 or 8-8 written all over them. Still, a win at Lambeau isn’t easy to accomplish, so let’s put that in the quality win column. Then they had a win over Philadelphia. On the surface, that looks pretty good as well. Until you realize that the Eagles pretty much dominated the game, in Dallas, and basically allowed the Cowboys to come back and win it. Let’s not forget the 37 points that Dallas allowed at home (whereas Pittsburgh’s defense only gave up 15 last week in Philadelphia) or the multitude of penalties and turnovers from both teams. A win is a win, but to make a case for Dallas being the NFL’s best team based on that game is a little far-fetched. The Cowboys also took care of the Browns in Cleveland, but the shine has completely worn off that win. There you have it. Three wins. Not bad, but certainly not great. Certainly not worthy of talking about Dallas going 16-0.

The Cowboys have talent. There’s no denying that. But there are still several glaring weaknesses that I touched on earlier in the season. First, they have no depth at several key positions. An injury to Romo, Owens or any one of their offensive linemen could derail their offense (although I have it on good authority that if Owens gets hurt before the trading deadline, Dallas has already decided to trade a couple of draft picks to Arizona for Anquan Boldin). The defense has several question marks. The linebacking corps is average at best. I also said back in August that the secondary was weak. They’ve only gotten weaker since Roy Williams (who is a liability in deep pass coverage anyway) got hurt and Pacman Jones has proven that he has lost more than step and is nothing more than a washed up “never-was”. The final weakness is Wade Phillips, who will lose this team as soon as the Cowboys encounter their first Owens-Pacman-Tank Johnson controversy or the Cowboys lose a couple of games in a row. The more I’ve seen of Dallas, the more I’ve seen that these problems have yet to be addressed. The right team can exploit them.

Are the Redskins the right team? Probably not, at least not now. Jason Campbell did have one of his best games as a pro in Dallas last season. Campbell completed 61% of his passes for 348 yards and two scores in a near upset for the Redskins (and had the Redskins not had a multitude of injuries on both sides of the ball, they would have won). The Redskins are also the only team in the league without an offensive turnover. The defense hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game (if you take away the Reggie Bush punt return). The Skins also have the benefit of having years of film on the Cowboys offense while Dallas only has three games worth of the new WCO/Coryell hybrid Washington is running.

So why aren’t they the right team? First, the running game hasn’t been doing anything in the first half of games. That’s may be ok against New Orleans. Against Dallas, the less you are able to control the ball by running it, the longer their offense is going to be on the field. If the Redskins only average 2.8 yards a carry in the first half like they did last week against the Cardinals, then they’ll probably be down 14-17 points at halftime. Even though the running attack has been much better in the second half of games this season, if you are down two scores or more going into the second half, you won’t be able to run as much. So it doesn’t matter what the Skins have done in the second half if they can’t control the game in the first. The injury to Stephon Heyer is also a real problem. Heyer has proven to be a very good right tackle despite several critics (including yours truly) questioning the benching of Jon Jansen. Without Heyer, I’m afraid the Redskins are going to see a lot of DeMarcus Ware in their backfield. Ware has tormented the Redskins in the past, and if there are injuries on the offensive line, that won’t help matters. Finally, the Redskins have big heads after two home wins. They’ve been hearing about how great they are in the local media for two weeks now, and I wouldn’t be surprised by a slow start. And while the Cowboys may have a similar problem, Owens did not have a good game last week. I guarantee that he has a big game in this one, despite how well the Redskins secondary has been playing. Call it a hunch.

How do the Redskins win? They must continue to not turn the ball over. As I said above, they must run the ball well and a lot in the first half. If the running game works, they have to take several shots downfield against the most glaring weakness the Cowboys possess…their secondary. Pacman has given up several big plays in the last two games and committed two interference penalties against Cleveland to prevent touchdowns. And the more they throw to Chris Cooley, who is a registered Cowboys killer, the better. Defensively, they have to do the same thing against Rom-oh-and-two (record in the playoffs…work with me on the name) that they did against Kurt Warner. Blitz him as much as possible. I’m not worried so much about Marion Barber. I just don’t want to see Romo with more than three seconds to throw the ball. Also, the first chance the Redskins get, they need to pop Owens in the mouth as hard as possible. If they need to commit a couple of personal fouls to do, so be it. Owens is soft and has a history of quitting if he gets drilled a couple of times early in the game. Heck, bring some scrub off the bench and do it intentionally. Even if that guy gets tossed, it will be worth it.

I don’t expect the Redskins to win, but I do think the line of 12 points is laughable. For those expecting a 24-28 point win (or more) for Dallas will probably be very disappointed. As for Texas Stadium, I say good riddance. It has never been a special place the way RFK once was. It’s always been a dump with a glaring construction error. For those that don’t know, the hole in the roof was not created so “God could watch his team” but because of an engineering flaw. So let’s debunk that myth right now. I’m not sure how much of a homefield advantage the Cowboys ever had there, but you can rest assured that the new place with be cavernous and hollow and can only help visiting teams in the future. So let’s go down there and send the place off with a bang…hopefully God will be watching the Redskins win.