2008 NFC Preview & Week 1 Picks

Here is the NFC preview, followed by week 1 picks.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: B+
Defense: B-
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: December (at NY Giants, Cleveland, at Washington, Dallas)

I hate to say it, but the Eagles are the best team in the conference if they are healthy. I don’t think Donovan McHernia has been fully healthy in three seasons. Judging on the last month of 2007 and the way he’s looked in training camp and preseason, I think he’s finally as close to 100% as he can be. Same goes for Brian Westbrook. This team was slowly getting into shape at the end of last season, but simply ran out of time to make a playoff push since they started in too big of a hole. The Eagles have proven over the course of the past decade that they are the deepest team in the division and the conference. The Eagles always have injury problems somewhere and always end up getting contributions from unknown players. The depth is why I really like the Eagles to win this tough division.

Injury concerns aside, the Eagles are the most balanced team in the division as well. Their offense and defense are perfect compliments for one another. Offensively, Westbrook brings balance, by himself, to the entire unit. He’s only behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Joseph Addai and Adrian Peterson as top back in the league. The receiving corps is still an issue, but Westbrook, tight end L.J. Smith and rookie DeSean Jackson (who will be starting by year’s end) are three weapons for McNabb. The passing game will not be as bad as people think (unless Westbrook gets hurt).

Defensively, the linebackers really appear to be weak. No one is going to be scared of Omar Gaither, Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong. I’m sure most fans have never even heard of the last two. But a good defensive line mixed with the best secondary in the division should cancel out the problems at LB. With the offense expected to score 21-27 points a game, the defense doesn’t have to be great. They just have to be respectable, and that’s exactly what they are.

If the Eagles stay healthy, they win this division. I don’t think it matters who comes out of the East, because that team won’t make the Super Bowl. The East teams are going to beat up on each other all season, and teams like New Orleans, Carolina and Seattle will take advantage of that in January.

2. Dallas Cowboys
Projected Record: 10-6

Offense: A-
Defense: C+
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: December (at Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, at Philadelphia)

On paper, this team looks ready to win the Super Bowl. Fortunately, this team isn’t as good as the hype they are generating. The Cowboys will not win the Super Bowl. The Cowboys will not win the division. In fact, the Cowboys, for the 13th straight season, won’t win a playoff game.

Dallas, for all the talent they have on their starting lineup, has no depth at all. If Tony Romo gets hurt, or the annoying receiver with a huge mouth gets hurt (as he has been known to do) or anyone on their front seven gets hurt, the Cowboys are in deep trouble.

Let’s take a look at this “mighty” offense. Romo has put up all kinds of numbers, but has yet to win a meaningful postseason game. Actually, he hasn’t won a meaningful regular season game. Terrell Owens is the only wide receiver of note. Jason Witten is the best pass catcher and route runner on the entire team. If either one of them go down, Romo will have one target to throw to. Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd are barely #3 caliber receivers. Marion Barber, for the first time since he was in high school, will be the featured back in an offense. I actually like the way he runs, but he refuses to protect himself and he runs straight up. As the featured back, over the course of a long season, he won’t last. I guarantee that Barber won’t play all 16 games this season.

The real problems for Dallas starts on the defensive end. For the last half of the season, the Cowboys struggled to generate any sort of pass rush. I don’t see how they fixed the problem in the off-season. The secondary is average, but with no pass rush, they will give up yards in chunks. The addition of Pacman is supposed to be the “missing piece” of the puzzle for Dallas. Oh really? A trouble-maker who hasn’t played in the NFL in almost two years is the reason that Dallas is going to make the leap to the Super Bowl? That’s laughable. First of all, no one leaves the game for that period of time and just picks up where they left off. This isn’t a Michael Jordan situation where you can just retire and come back. When was the last time someone retired, or in Pacman’s case, was forced out of the NFL for more than a season, then came back and performed as well as he used too? I can’t remember it ever happening. That brings me to my second point: Pacman wasn’t a good corner to begin with. He was a good kick returner, but an average cornerback. The secondary was already suspect, and the addition of Pacman doesn’t help at all.

The schedule is killer for Dallas. They should be 6-2 after the first 8 games. But check out the last 8. They have to play the Giants twice. They have road games at Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. They also have a home game against Seattle. Assuming they beat San Francisco and Baltimore, I can’t see them winning more than two of those other six games.

Finally, the weak-willed Wade Phillips is still in charge. At the first sign of trouble, or at the first two or three game losing streak, this team will turn on him. All the personality issues in Dallas have all been building over the past few years. They are due for a blow-up, and it will happen if the Cowboys struggle. The talent is here for a 10-win season, but without depth, a decent coach and with a tough schedule and tough division, this is far from a Super Bowl team.

3. Washington Redskins
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: C+
Defense: B
Coaching: C
Tough Month: September (at NY Giants, New Orleans, Arizona, at Dallas)

See game preview. My stance on a 9-7 season has not changed since Thursday night.

4. New York Giants
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: B-
Defense: B
Coaching: C
Tough Month: December (Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota)

Again, for some of what I think, check the Redskins game preview. I do think the Giants were a fluke. They were not the best team in the league last season. They were not one of the four or five best teams in the league last season. They had a great final month after four average ones. They lost a few key players and did little to replace them. The schedule is harder than last year. The division is tougher than last year. The best thing that came out of last season is the fact that people actually think Tom Coughlin is a good coach. It just bought the rest of the NFL at least three more season of Coughlin in New York, which will retard whatever growth the Giants are capable of. Thursday’s outcome had very little to do with the Giants and had more to do with the Redskins not being able to get out of their own way. The great Giants defense only sacked Jason Campbell once, forced no turnovers, and only got the Redskins off the field because the Skins receivers ran 5-yard routes on 3rd and 6. All that against a team with a rookie coach and a new offensive system. I still think this team will finish last in the division.

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
Projected Record: 10-6

Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: C+
Tough Month: September (at Green Bay, Indianapolis, Carolina, at Tennessee)

I’m not going to spend too much time on North division teams because there are no teams that are worth spending time on. This is the worst division in football. Lost in all the Adrian Peterson hype (and he does deserve it) is the fact that Tarvaris Jackson is still the Vikings quarterback. Only J.T. O’Sullivan, Brodie Croyle and Joe Flacco will be worse opening day starters, and only Croyle will have a worse overall career. Expect to see a lot teams, if not every team that plays Minnesota, stack 8-men or more in the box and force Jackson to beat them.

The Vikings defense is still good against the run, and bad against the pass. The addition of Jared Allen to the line will help the pass rush, but still won’t make up for the lousy secondary. The linebackers are strictly average. Teams with good passing games and a decent run defense will dominate the Vikings. This team is too one-dimensional on both sides of the ball.

Playing in the North helps, as they are the best team in the division and should come up with 5 easy wins that way. But they still have to play 4 games against the AFC South and the better-than-advertised NFC South, so getting to 10 wins won’t be easy. But someone in this division has to do it.

2. Green Bay Packers
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: C
Defense: B+
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: November (at Tennessee, at Minnesota, Chicago, at New Orleans, Carolina)

The Packers made their bed, and now they’re going to have to lay in it. The Packers knew that Brett Favre was a self-righteous primadona who cared only about himself. Yet, they believed him when he said he was retiring in March, and believed him in June when he said he wasn’t coming back. SURPRISE!

When Favre said he was going to come back, the Packers should have had two choices. The first would have been to welcome him back as the starter, no questions asked. Tell Aaron Rodgers “tough luck kid, maybe next year”. The second would have been to cut ties with him immediately and back Rodgers from Day 1 of training camp. The Packers chose the third option. They opened the window slightly for Favre’s return, but only as a backup to Rodgers, who is supposed to be the future of the franchise. Huh? Did that choice make sense to anyone outside the Packers organization? I think even the most basic fans could of told you that would open a can of worms that would result in a media swarm descending upon Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers’ confidence being destroyed before opening weekend, and the eventual ugly divorce between Favre and the fan base that idolized him. Enjoyable for me, not so much for Packers fans.

Again, the Packers made their deal with the devil, and then traded him, and they’ll have to suffer through a rough season. With Favre, or with a confident Aaron Rodgers, this team could easily win the North. They have neither one, so they won’t.

3. Detroit Lions
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: B-
Defense: D
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: December (Minnesota, at Indianapolis, New Orleans, at Green Bay)

You know it’s a sad state of affairs when Jon Kitna is the best starting quarterback in the division…by far. Another year of the Matt Millen regime means another year of promising offensive weapons, only to be done in by an awful offensive line and an equally bad defense. Very few things in football stay constant. The Lions being terrible is one thing you can always count on.

4. Chicago Bears
Projected Record: 5-11

Offense: D
Defense: B
Coaching: B
Tough Month: September (at Indianapolis, at Carolina, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia)

Who would you rather have as your starting quarterback? Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton? Well, I guess that depends on whether you’d rather shoot yourself in the arm or in the leg. The Bears are starting with Orton, which means nothing other than he’ll be charged with the opening day loss at Indianapolis. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be behind center. Chances are it’s going to be a lousy quarterback.

The Bears are the NFC’s version of the Ravens. They possess a once proud defense that is no longer exceptional and can no longer carry an inept offense. Few teams will score more than 20 points against Chicago, which means they’ll be in just about every game. However, the Bears will be lucky to score 14 points in any game this season. It will be another long year for Lovie Smith, who is a good coach with a bad team.

NFC SOUTH

1. New Orleans Saints
Projected Record: 12-4

Offense: A-
Defense: C+
Coaching: B-
Tough Month: October (Minnesota, Oakland, at Carolina, vs San Diego [in London])

Like the Eagles, assuming everyone is healthy, this is a team that’s going to compete and be much better than they were last season. The 0-4 start combined with the Deuce McAllister injury really sunk the Saints in 2007. They spent most of October and November climbing out of the hole before fading in December. The Saints have a tough first half again, but if they’re hovering around 5-3 in November, they should be able to cruise to a division title.

Drew Brees is back and fully healthy. Brees, like most of the Saints, struggled mightily the first four weeks before putting up pretty good numbers the rest of the way. McAllister appears healthy as well, but it takes more than one year to recover completely from an ACL injury. Everyone is still waiting on Reggie Bush to make the jump to elite back. That may never happen, but Bush is still a versatile weapon for New Orleans. The addition of Jeremy Shockey makes for a solid tandem with Marques Colston and David Patten. The young offensive line has another year of experience under their belt. The offense should be ready to go for the Saints.

Defensively, the trade to get Jonathan Vilma was crucial. They finally add a presence at middle linebacker that the Saints haven’t had in years. The rest of the defense is slowly getting better. Sedrick Ellis was a good draft pick to help on the line. Randall Gay was a good signing in free agency. The outside linebacker combination of Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita is the real weakness for the Saints. Teams that stretch the field with a good running game and use tight ends and slot receivers for 10-yard routes should be able to move the ball against New Orleans. All the defense has to do is keep the opponent around 20 points and let the offense take care of the rest.

2. Carolina Panthers
Projected Record: 9-7

Offense: B-
Defense: B-
Coaching: A-
Tough Month: December (Tampa Bay, Denver, at NY Giants, at New Orleans)

When Jake Delhomme went down in 2007, so did the Panthers season. Like the Saints, Carolina finished 7-9, but their record never matched the talent. Delhomme is recovered and I expect him to have a big season. Jonathan Stewart looked real good in preseason, and will be part of a good running back tandem with DeAngelo Williams. Assuming Steve Smith stops punching teammates in the face, he forms a nice combination with Muhsin Muhammad, who was brought back from Chicago in the offseason. The offensive line is good, not great. Pass blocking has been a concern for Carolina in the past, and with a quarterback who has a history of injuries, the Panthers must improve in that category to have offensive success.

The back seven on the defense compare favorably to the rest of the league. It’s not going to be easy passing against a defense with playmakers like Jon Beason, Landon Johnson and Ken Lucas. Julius Peppers is the only defensive line player of note, and he’s never able to play a full season. The suspect front four is the main reason this defense has fallen off a little bit in the last couple of seasons.

The Panthers are another one of those teams that can’t seem to stay healthy. The talent is in place for a good season. John Fox is one of the best coaches in the league. Without Fox, or with a lesser coach, the Panthers probably would have won 4 games last season instead of 7. The fact that his job is possibly in jeopardy if the Panthers don’t do well is ridiculous. If the main players stay healthy, Carolina should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs, but that may not be enough to save Fox.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Record: 7-9

Offense: C+
Defense: B+
Coaching: B+
Tough Month: October (at Denver, Carolina, Seattle, at Dallas)

Thanks to the injury to Delhomme and the Saints early season struggles, the Buccaneers were able to post a 9-7 record and win the division. 9-7 won’t be good enough to win the South this season, and the Buccaneers won’t make it to 9 wins anyway.

I will say this about Tampa: They are a very young team that has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. In about two seasons, this team is going to be scary good if they can figure out what is going on at quarterback. This season, Jeff Garcia will go behind center once again. This is a team that has used or had the option to use Garcia, Josh McKown, Chris Simms, Brian Griese, Brad Gradkowski – even Jake Plummer – in the last couple of seasons. It’s a position of turnover right now for Tampa, and it may be something they want to address in the draft in 2009. Garcia is a good option for right now, but at 38, he doesn’t have many good seasons left in him.

Earnest Graham will take the carries with Cadillac Williams still struggling with injuries. Joey Galloway will once again be Garcia’s primary weapon. While Graham and Williams are here to stay, Galloway is 36. Like Garcia, he won’t be around much longer. The lack of a consistent passing game will keep the Bucs down this season. They’ll win a bunch of games because of their defense, but not enough to compete with New Orleans and Carolina. With their upcoming salary cap room, if Tampa can sign some big name receivers and find a decent and young quarterback, the rest of the players are in place for the Bucs to be successful for a long time. But not this year.

4. Atlanta Falcons
Projected Record: 4-12

Offense: D
Defense: C-
Coaching: D
Tough Month: November (at Oakland, New Orleans, Denver, Carolina, at San Diego)

Like Miami, there’s no point in spending a lot of time talking about Atlanta. Matt Ryan will be better than most people think, but he’s not in a situation to succeed this season or next. Michael Turner and Roddy White are decent weapons for Ryan, but the offensive line is terrible. Hopefully they don’t turn Ryan into a second version of David Carr. It will be another ugly year, or two, in Atlanta while this team rebuilds from the ground up.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
Projected Record: 11-5

Offense: B
Defense: B
Coaching: A-
Tough Month: October (at NY Giants, Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, at San Francisco)

The other three teams in the NFC West continue to do nothing which means the Seahawks can just keep cruising to another division title. Seattle continues to make minor adjustments to the roster, but all they really have to do is make sure they stay in the West division. The Cardinals will be their only real challenge, and their defense is still struggling.

The Seahawks cut ties with Shaun Alexander, which marks an incredible two year plummet from NFL MVP to unemployed. While the Seahawks running game with a healthy Alexander was phenomenal, the Julius Jones-Maurice Morris combination will be better than the revolving door the Seahawks used last year. Assuming Deion Branch returns at midseason as projected, Matt Hasselbeck will continue to have a variety of receivers to throw to and a good offensive line which to throw behind.

The defense, to most of the country, is somewhat unknown. They possess a lot of playmakers but few complete defenders. Lofa Tatupu, Patrick Kearney, Rocky Bernard, Julian Peterson and Marcus Trufant are just some of the talented players they have. It continues to be a good group, but certainly not an elite group. Assuming the opposing quarterback has time, he will be able to throw deep against the Seahawks secondary.

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last ride on Seattle’s sideline. It’s shaping up to be a good one, but one that will fall a little short of the Super Bowl.

2. Arizona Cardinals
Projected Record: 8-8

Offense: B+
Defense: C
Coaching: C+
Tough Month: December (St. Louis, Minnesota, at New England, Seattle)

Kurt Warner seems ageless, the receivers are still talented, the defense is slowly getting better, but it’s another season of mediocrity in the desert. Nothing says .500 more than the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals, just like the Lions, continue to ignore the gaping holes in their offensive line. Levi Brown is a good right tackle. The rest of the line is well below NFL standards. Combine that with 30-going-on-50 running back Edgerrin James, and there’s a good reason the Cardinals were 29th in rushing last season despite having the fifth best passing offense.

The defense can stop the run, but still hasn’t been able to figure out how to stop opponents from beating them deep. Adrian Wilson is one of the NFL’s top safeties, but he doesn’t have a lot help around him. Roderick Hood and Eric Green could be the two worst starting corners in the league. A good passing game and a bad passing defense means a lot of high-scoring and entertaining games, but not enough wins for Arizona.

3. St. Louis Rams
Projected Record: 6-10

Offense: B-
Defense: D-
Coaching: C-
Tough Month: October (at Washington, Dallas, at New England)

Of their three best players, two are always hurt. It is unlikely that Marc Bulger and Orlando Pace will stay healthy through the entire season. Their other top player, Steven Jackson, won’t stay healthy either. He is what we call a “Two-H Player”. He held-out, which usually means hamstring problems. It happens every year to a holdout, especially a running back or receiver. They’re not in camp on time to get in shape, and they get hurt relatively early in the season trying to push it too hard.

Injuries aside, the Rams are a shell of their former talented selves. The defense is just depleted. There’s nothing there. They were horrible against the run and horrible against the pass. In a division with Seattle and Arizona, that’s a formula for disaster. Other than adding Chris Long, not much was done about this porous unit. Add to the mix a pretty tough first half of the season, and there’s no reason to give St. Louis any more than 6 wins.

4. San Francisco 49ers
Projected Record: 5-11

Offense: D
Defense: D+
Coaching: D+
Tough Month: October (New England, Philadelphia, at NY Giants, Seattle)

See Atlanta and Miami. Nothing here worth talking about. The 49ers have no quarterback, no receivers, no offensive line, no defensive line and a bad coach. Other than Frank Gore, a couple of talented linebackers (Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes) and a decent kicking game, the 49ers are overmatched at every position. Gore could run for 2,000 yards and it wouldn’t matter. Also, Gore will not rush for 2,000 yards. Not even close.

NFC Wildcard
(4) Minnesota beats (5) Dallas
(6) Carolina beats (3) Philadelphia

NFC Divisional Round
(1) New Orleans beats (6) Carolina
(2) Seattle beats (4) Minnesota

NFC Championship
New Orleans over Seattle

SUPER BOWL XLIII
Indianapolis 27, New Orleans 17

Now to the week 1 picks, my bread and butter. I was 162-88, including the playoffs, overall in 2007. Against the spread, I was 138-104-8. That’s pretty damn good. And even though both of those records were impressive, it was actually the worst records I’ve put up in the past three seasons. During the course of three seasons, I’m now 500-255 (66.2%) overall. Against the spread in three seasons I’m 415-311-29. So this is the place for picks. Since I just recapped all 32 teams, I’ll keep the game previews very short this week. Let’s see if we can get started on the right foot. As always, these picks shouldn’t be used for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Rookie quarterback + rookie head coach = an easy pick.
Pick: Bengals

New York Jets (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Can Favre win his first game for the Jets? Not if Chad Pennington has anything to say about it. Revenge will be swift.
Pick: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-16)
Brodie Croyle playing on the road, in what will be a monsoon thanks to Tropical Storm Hanna and facing the Patriots defense. Yikes.
Pick: Patriots

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Ben Roethlisberger against the Texans defense, or Matt Schwab about the Steelers defense? Choice seems pretty simple.
Pick: Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Tennessee Titans
If the Titans are going to compete in the South, they have to win games like this.
Pick: Jaguars

Detroit Lions (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
What I said about Baltimore goes for Atlanta.
Pick: Lions

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Seattle opened with a win across the country in Tampa last year. Don’t know why they’re the slight dogs here.
Pick: Seahawks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Big game for the Saints if they want to take back the NFC South. Must protect that home field/floodwater.
Pick: Saints

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
This one will get ugly. I’d be surprised if the Eagles won by less than 17.
Pick: Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Cleveland Browns
An interesting opening game. Maybe the Cowboys problems start by Lake Erie.
Pick: Browns

Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-9.5)
I see the Chargers winning, but that spread seems to be a bit too high.
Pick: Chargers, Panthers cover

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals wideouts should have a field day against the 49ers secondary. Only 2.5? Sure, why not.
Pick: Cardinals

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
It will be interesting to see how close to 100% Peyton Manning is against a good defense.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Let’s just say I don’t have any confidence betting with Aaron Rodgers. At least not yet.
Pick: Vikings

Denver Broncos (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Toughest game of the weekend to predict. I really like the Raiders at home, but I just can’t do it.
Pick: Broncos