NFL Week 3: The Hot Seat Is Already Warm

My 8-6 week was not enough to get me back on the plus side for the season (14-15 overall). But my 8-5-1 picks against the spread did get me to 14-14-1 on the season. It also creates the rare occasion where my picks against the spread are better than my picks straight up. Weird. Back over the black this week, I promise. Still, don’t use these picks for any real gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (0-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-0)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
So Kerry Collins is still a viable NFL quarterback. Who knew? The Titans are not as good as their unblemished record would indicate, but this team can get off to a nice 3-0 start after this game. As for Houston, I would doubt that they come out with much energy considering what’s gone on for them the past two weeks. When the Saints were forced out of New Orleans three seasons ago, no one knew what to do when picking them since they were facing something that no other team had had to do. It turns out the Saints were terrible that season, but it led to Drew Brees and Reggie Bush donning the black and old gold. So there is a precedent for the Texans and how to pick them: don’t.
Pick: Titans

Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. New England Patriots (2-0)(-12.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I said back in August that I’d put lots of money on the Patriots starting 4-0. Even without Tom Brady, I’d still put a lot of money on it. They get to face four of the worst teams in the NFL to start the season.
Pick: Patriots, Dolphins cover

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1-1)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Solider Field
Despite losing in the final minutes against Carolina, these Bears are starting to bear (no, I wasn’t trying for the pun) a lot of resemblance to the team from two seasons ago. They have no quarterback, but they seem to get two or three big plays a game from their defense and special teams. Since the North appears to be even weaker than I originally thought, that might be enough to get them to .500 or above. In any case, the winner of this game looks pretty good sitting at 2-1.
Pick: Bears

Carolina Panthers (2-0) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-2)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
The more I see of the Panthers, the more I like. Now they get a pissed off Steve Smith back. Good luck Vikings corners. Meanwhile, things are starting to get ugly in Minnesota. I thought that the Vikings couldn’t do worse than Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, but I see they plan on starting Gus Frerotte this week.
Pick: Panthers

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Now we start the segment of the broadcast that features all the early season coaching dramas. The three games following this one all have coaches that are on the hot seat already. This is a game that should feature a coach in trouble, but doesn’t. How Herm Edwards isn’t in jeopardy yet is beyond me. I know he has a lot of young talent, and I know that this was a rebuilding year for Kansas City, but they just got dominated by a Raiders team that was about to fire their own coach. They didn’t even put up a fight. The game wasn’t as close as the 23-8 score suggests. Larry Johnson only touched the ball 12 times in the game, blasted Edwards afterwards and no one even batted an eye. So why aren’t we hearing about Edwards being in trouble? I can’t tell you. Considering their options, I thought Kansas City was a pretty strong football town. Certainly a strong enough town not to let this happen to one of the premier franchises in the NFL. After this contest with rebuilding Atlanta, the Chiefs most winnable game comes against Miami…in December. They could be looking at 0-14 if they don’t win here.
Pick: Falcons

Oakland Raiders (1-1) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
Lane Kiffin remains in Oakland…at least for this week. Even though the Raiders beat the Chiefs this past weekend, don’t think it was because the players were rallying around the gipper. I think that game speaks louder about the sorry state of the Chiefs more than the state of the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Bills appear to have arrived a year ahead of schedule. Dare we call them the favorites in the AFC East? I can’t yet, since these are games the Bills of the past few seasons have usually lost. I’d like to see a blowout win in this game before I put more confidence in the Bills.
Pick: Bills, Raiders cover

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) vs. New York Giants (2-0)(-13.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Marvin Lewis continues to swim further into the deep end and it appears more and more likely he won’t make it though the season in Cincinnati. The defense is still as bad as it was last year (41 points in two weeks against a backup quarterback and a third string rookie quarterback). Complicating matters is the complete collapse of a once dangerous offense. Carson Palmer looks like he’s got 45-year old knees. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshawhatever have been non-existent. They haven’t found a back to replace Rudi Johnson. And their line is so full of holes, it doesn’t matter who is behind center right now. They’re a mess, and they’ll help inflate the Giants record.
Pick: Giants

St. Louis Rams (0-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (0-2)(-9.5)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
Management has already said that Scott Linehan is on thin ice, and I’m not sure that it’s going to get any better for him in the Pacific Northwest. Yes, the Seahawks have been bad so far, but they’ve at least shown some fight. The Rams have yet to show up for a game this season. After this game there isn’t an easy contest for them until they host the Dolphins on the last weekend of November. Like the Chiefs, it could be a long oh-fer for the Rams if they can’t sneak out of Seattle with a win.
Pick: Seahawks, Rams cover

Detroit Lions (0-2) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-1)(-4)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
The Rams-Seahawks and Chiefs-Falcons put in a good fight for the Toilet Bowl Game of the Week. However, the Lions and 49ers actually win that distinction for Week 3, which is the first thing that either of these franchises have won in a long time.
Pick: 49ers

New Orleans Saints (1-1) vs. Denver Broncos (2-0)(-5)
4:05 p.m. Mile High Stadium
As I’ll touch on later in the week, the Saints are going to struggle without Marques Colston in the lineup. Unless Sean Payton unleashes Reggie Bush and allows Robert Meachem to get playing time, there is no one on the Saints that can stretch the field for Drew Brees. We’ll probably see one more week of conservative play-calling before Payton watches the film and opens the offense up a little. Plus, after his ballsy 2-point conversion call last week, I got to go with Mike Shanahan this week as a reward.
Pick: Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
I don’t think the Eagles are going to keep up their 37.5 points per game pace against the Steelers defense. Big Ben will be fine and the Eagles should be exposed here.
Pick: Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-1)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
As important as Minnesota’s game is this week, this is an early season must win for Jacksonville. Otherwise, they’ll be 0-3 and at least two games behind the division leader (3 games if Tennessee wins). Any hopes of winning the South would go straight out the window. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, I don’t see the Colts losing two straight home games to start the season.
Pick: Colts

Cleveland Browns (0-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
Could the NFL handled the Ravens-Texans scheduling snafu a little better? Certainly. It’s hardly fair to have the Texans and Ravens lose their bye weeks in Week 2. The game should have been played at the Cotton Bowl, the Alomodome, the Sun Bowl or the Superdome. But for Ravens fans to complain that they should have hosted the game is wrong. The NFL is not going to make that mistake again and award a team 9 home games in a season (especially since the last team to do that won their division by a grand total of one game…think that extra home contest helped any?). They’ll only go down that path if the Patriots or Cowboys are involved and getting extra assistance. Anyway, I was hoping to see the Ravens as favorites, and I got my wish.
Pick: Browns

Dallas Cowboys (2-0)(-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-0)
8:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Was the Monday Night game between Dallas and Philly entertaining? Sure, if you could stand rooting for either team. Was it good football? No, far from it. There was no defense, and plenty of sloppy play from both teams. There is a difference between entertaining and well-played football. Just because 78 points were scored doesn’t make it a quality football game. It means that neither teams’ defense is any good. The 3 turnovers (not including the fumble by DeSean “I Got 99 Yards, But What’s Past The One?” Jackson that wasn’t called), 4 sacks and 16 penalties speak more to the quality of the game than the scoreboard. The Broncos-Chargers game was much better.
Pick: Cowboys

MONDAY

New York Jets (1-1) vs. San Diego Chargers (0-2)(-9)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Games like last Sunday’s contest just seem to happen to teams that employ Norv Turner. He’s more than bad luck. He’s an embarrassing and frustrating loss waiting to happen. For all the complaining done by the national media about the bad call that helped cost the Chargers the game, why is no one mentioning that all the Chargers had to do was stop Denver’s two-point conversion and they would have won?

That brings me to another point. Why is the national sports media complaining about the call, but there are no complaints coming from San Diego? It’s simple. Despite being an absolutely gorgeous city and one of the best places to live in the world, San Diego is probably the worst sports city in the country. I spent the week leading up to their AFC Championship Game against New England in San Diego. It was easy to forget that there was a game since no one really seemed to care. Not that I blame them considering all that there is to do in San Diego. If the Chargers fans really cared about their team, they wouldn’t allow Norv Turner to keep running it.
Pick: Chargers, Jets cover

The Redskins play host to the suprisingly good Arizona Cardinals. More on that shortly.