2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Here we go, 2008-09 basketball season preview. I’ll take a look at the six power conferences, a few of the mid-majors I expect to make some noise, and we’ll wrap it all up with the Top 25. Teams with a * next to their names I’ve projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Maryland-Michigan State preview will be along later in the week.

ACC
Projected finish:

1. North Carolina*
2. Wake Forest*
3. Duke*
4. Miami*
5. Virginia Tech*
6. Clemson*
7. Georgia Tech
8. Maryland
9. Boston College
10. Florida State
11. NC State
12. Virginia

Notes: North Carolina is far and away the best team in the conference, and possibly the country. Wake Forest is young, but balanced and talented. Freshman Al-Farouq Aminu will be a household name by the end of the season, even if you don’t know how to pronounce his name. Duke will be good as usual, but they still lack a consistent inside game. Miami could be the only team good enough to beat UNC. They return four starters including Jack McClinton and several big bodies to throw off the bench. Virginia Tech will step back up after barely missing the tournament last season. Clemson lost James Mays and Cliff Hammonds, but should be right on the bubble come March. Georgia Tech and Maryland might as well be the same team. Lots of talent in the backcourt, lots of question marks in the front. Boston College still has Tyrese Rice, who will be good enough for at least 4-5 wins by himself. Problem is there’s nothing else on the BC roster. The final three teams are interchangeable. Virginia and NC State really have a chance to be downright awful in a top-heavy league.

Big East
Projected finish:

1. Louisville*
2. Connecticut*
3. Notre Dame*
4. Marquette*
5. Pittsburgh*
6. Villanova*
7. Syracuse*
8. Georgetown*
9. Seton Hall
10. West Virginia
11. Providence
12. Cincinnati
13. Rutgers
14. DePaul
15. South Florida
16. St. John’s

Notes: This conference will get eight teams in. Not nine. Certainly not ten like I’ve been hearing. Georgetown and West Virginia will both sink because of graduations/roster defections. The top 6 in this conference are really good, but it’s anyone’s guess after that. It’s a toss up between Louisville, UConn and Notre Dame for the conference title. I think Rick Pitino’s superior coaching gives the conference to the Cardinals. UConn and Notre Dame will keep pace with guys like Hasheem Thabeet and Luke Harangody. Marquette could sneak up on a lot of teams if Dominic James and Jerel McNeal can stay healthy. Pittsburgh will do it’s usual no offense, great defense routine and get bounced in the NCAA’s first weekend. Villanova and Syracuse will benefit from WVU and Georgetown’s drop off. Seton Hall is the only legitimate sleeper in the conference. I still think they’re a year away from making the NCAA’s. Providence is getting closer with Keno Davis as head coach, but they’re still a year or two away as well.

Big Ten
Projected finish:

1. Michigan State*
2. Purdue*
3. Ohio State*
4. Minnesota*
5. Wisconsin*
6. Michigan
7. Penn State
8. Illinois
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Indiana

Notes: The experience of Michigan State, along with the coaching of Tom Izzo, will allow the Spartans to hold off Purdue for the conference title. Ohio State will be competitive with freshman B.J. Mullens, but there are no decent upperclassmen on the roster. Tubby Smith is a great coach who got a raw deal at Kentucky. He has Minnesota ready for a break through season. Wisconsin lost a ton of talent, but should still play enough defense to make the tournament. The rest of the conference is junk. Michigan and Penn State could both make noise, but are still building. Illinois lost it’s two best forwards and will have to replace about 25 points per game. Iowa and Northwestern are bad, Indiana could be historically terrible.

Big XII
Projected finish:

North
Kansas (4)*
Missouri (6)
Kansas State (7)
Iowa State (10)
Nebraska (11)
Colorado (12)

South
Oklahoma (1)*
Texas (2)*
Baylor (3)*
Texas A&M (5)*
Oklahoma State (8)
Texas Tech (9)

Notes: The Big XII South is a beast. Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor could all be contenders in every other conference. I think Texas losing D.J. Augustin and the continuing emergence of Blake Griffin will tip the scales in favor of Oklahoma. Even though I know that Texas returns everyone else. Baylor will be even better than last season, but their defense is still suspect enough for them to finish third. Kansas lost way too much to compete at top tier level this season and repeat as champs. They’ll still comfortably win their division and make the NCAA tournament. Texas A&M is a team in transition this year, but the bottom half of the conference is bad enough that the Aggies should be able to get 7-8 easy wins. Missouri is slowly starting to creep back up the standings now that Quinn Snyder and his bottle of hair mousse is gone. K-State has no Michael Beasley and no real shot at a bid. The other five teams are going to struggle, especially OSU and Texas Tech since they’ll have to play the four other South teams twice.

Pac 10
Projected finish:

1. UCLA*
2. Arizona State*
3. Washington*
4. Southern California*
5. Washington State*
6. Arizona
7. Oregon
8. California
9. Stanford
10. Oregon State

Notes: After a dominant year, the Pac-10 will take a step back. Overall, the conference lost Kevin Love, O.J. Mayo, the Lopez twins and Lute Olsen. So it will be tough to recreate last season. UCLA will still have enough to win the conference. More than enough, in fact. Herb Sendek has done a tremendous job (and a little luck with unheralded prospects doesn’t hurt) building up ASU. Bet he’d look pretty good right now in Raleigh, hey NC State? USC still has Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett and freshman DeMar DeRozan which should help overcome the loss of Mayo. Washington will be up, Washington State will drop a little, but both are good enough for the NCAA’s. With all the craziness and instability in Tucson, I don’t see Arizona extending their NCAA streak. Mike Montgomery has a large rebuilding project at Cal, as does Johnny Dawkins at Stanford.

SEC
Projected finish:

East
Tennessee (1)*
Florida (2)*
Vanderbilt (4)*
Kentucky (8)
Georgia (9)
South Carolina (11)

West
Alabama (3)*
LSU (5)*
Mississippi (6)*
Mississippi State (7)
Arkansas (10)
Auburn (12)

Notes: Like the Big XII, the divisions in the SEC are the haves and the have nots. The East is much stronger than the West will be. Tennessee and Florida are the best two teams in the conference, by far. Everyone else is at least a couple of tiers below those two schools. Mark Gottfried could be in trouble at Alabama if he doesn’t deliver, but I think he will. Then again, I thought he would have a great season last year as well. Vanderbilt lost Shan Foster, but they still have a true center in A.J. Ogilvy. They’ll still be good while Kentucky struggles. LSU should make the tournament under Trent Johnson. So should Ole Miss. Georgia was a one week wonder in the Tornado Tournament last season. Don’t look for a repeat performance. Mississippi State and Arkansas were tournament teams last season, but both lost way too much of their starting lineup. In fact, Arkansas lost their entire starting lineup.

Mid-majors

The obvious ones:
Memphis
Gonzaga
Xavier
UNLV
Davidson

Notes: Each is far and away the best team in their respective conferences. Memphis returns to a bulked up C-USA, which won’t be as easy to run through as the last couple of seasons. I’d be surprised if they make it through clean, but wouldn’t be surprised if they only have 3 to 4 losses by March. Gonzaga should breeze through a hollow WCC. Xavier with stud forward Derrick Brown has the usual competition from Dayton and St. Joe’s, but should have no problems in the A-10. UNLV returns Wink Adams and several other top scorers. The Mountain West will be theirs for the taking. Only BYU should challenge them. Davidson (technically not a mid-major) will lose a bunch of games outside of conference, but should easily run the SoCon table with Stephen Curry.

The not-so obvious ones:
UAB
San Diego
Creighton
BYU
VCU
Dayton

Notes: UAB could make things somewhat interesting in Conference USA. Mike Davis has done a good job keeping that program competitive. Creighton is the best team in the Missouri Valley, but that conference tends to cannibalize itself. St. Mary’s is drawing a lot of attention again in the WCC, but San Diego returns all five starters. I think the Toreros are the 2nd best team in that conference. BYU is a tournament team, but would have been much better if Trent Plaisted was still there. VCU has Eric Maynor, but will that be enough to hold off challenges from ODU and Mason in the rough CAA? Dayton is the second best team in the A-10, but Brian Roberts is gone. So they probably won’t have enough to unseat Xavier. They’ll be squarely on the bubble.

Under the radar teams to keep an eye on:
Nevada
Tulsa
New Mexico

Notes: Nevada, despite being the favorite in the WAC, is way under the radar after losing Javale McGee. They will win their conference and probably be good enough to spring a first round upset. Tulsa is a very intriguing team. Jerome Jordan is the best big man in C-USA and Ben Uzoh is a reliable second scoring option. They won’t compete with Memphis, but they could climb over UAB and UTEP…two teams picked to finish ahead of them. Then there’s always New Mexico lingering in the ether. J.R. Giddens if finally out of college, but the Lobos return everyone else. They also add highly-rated freshman Phillip McDonald, who spurned just about every Big XII program to come to Albuquerque.


TOP 25:

1. North Carolina
2. Louisville
3. Connecticut
4. Michigan State
5. Oklahoma
6. UCLA
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. Gonzaga
10. Memphis
11. Notre Dame
12. Wake Forest
13. Purdue
14. Duke
15. Marquette
16. Arizona State
17. Baylor
18. Miami (FL)
19. Pittsburgh
20. Florida
21. Kansas
22. UNLV
23. Villanova
24. Xavier
25. Ohio State