Cowboys at Redskins: Insult to Injury

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Washington Redskins (6-3)
8:15 p.m. FedEx Field
Timing is everything. As of right now, the Redskins timing is awful. A few weeks ago, everything was clicking. This game looked like it would be the Redskins easiest remaining home game and a chance to step on the throats of the hated Cowboys. Then Chris Samuels got hurt. Then Santana Moss got hurt. Then Clinton Portis got hurt. Then the Redskins got dominated at home by a good, but not great, Steelers team. Then the Cowboys conveniently got healthy right before coming to town. All of a sudden, the Redskins appear to be a 6-3 team on the verge of having the rug swept out from under their feet.

The next three games will determine the Redskins season. Home games against the Cowboys and Giants with a cross-country road trip to Seattle sandwiched in between. The Redskins need to take two of the next three, and preferably, one of the wins has to be against New York. They have to do this with injuries across the board and an offense that already began to stall before the injuries hit.

The Redskins only managed 17 points against the Rams, 14 against the Browns, 17 against the Lions (one touchdown came on a punt return) and six against the Steelers. That’s only 13.5 offensive points per game over the past four games. Three of those games featured a healthy Moss and Portis. Only one of the four teams will be in the playoffs. Yet, the Redskins couldn’t even manage two touchdowns and two extra points offensively over that span. That’s a major red flag.

Aside from the game against Pittsburgh, it’s not as if the offense has been terrible. They’ve moved the ball, controlled the clock and kept the opponents off the field. However, the Redskins continue their many-season struggle once they get inside the opponents 40. Earlier in the season, the Redskins were having problems getting touchdowns inside the redzone. Now they’re struggling to get field goals after they cross midfield. The opening half against the Steelers proved as much. Three times, the Redskins started their drive inside Pittsburgh territory. They scored six points on two field goals. Both field goals were over 40 yards. So if it hadn’t been for a failed onside kick, turnover and bad punt on behalf of the Steelers, the Redskins would have been shutout. So what’s gone wrong in opposition territory? It’s a good question, and one that’s not that easy to answer. The shortest explanation is that a little bit of everything has gone wrong. Poor play-calling, poor execution and penalties. That will do it. There have been a lot of mistakes. It’s hard to pinpoint one when it seems to be a new problem each weekend.

As well as the defense has played this season, the defense is not good enough to dominate a game. This is not a 2000 Ravens situation. The Redskins can not get away, at least not most of the time, with scoring 14 points a game. Especially not in the NFC East. If the defense gives up 21-24 points against a NFC East team, you have to consider that a decent job. The offense needs to bail them out. In the last four games, it hasn’t happened and the Redskins are only 2-2 as a result.

So now we get to see Dallas for the second time this season. Tony Romo will play, although how healthy he is remains to be seen. Jason Witten will play with a busted rib. The only weapon the Cowboys will miss is Felix Jones, who didn’t play in the September meeting anyway. The Redskins will likely be without Portis and Ladell Betts, which means that Shaun Alexander will get the start. Eesh. Moss should play, but as we’ve seen the past couple of seasons, if he isn’t 100% healthy, he isn’t all that effective. Anthony Montgomery is out. Marcus Washington is out. Shawn Soft Springs may or may not play. At this point, who cares? The Redskins have actually been doing better without him as of late. It’s not a pretty scenario for the Redskins, but more on that in a moment.

For those who think that Romo returning to the starting lineup will be the solution to the Cowboys woes, you are sorely mistaken. Dallas has themselves a lot of problems, and not all of them come from the quarterback position. Defensively, as I said would be the case all the way back in August, the Cowboys are a mess. They can’t stop the run at all. They can’t stop the deep pass. No Roy Williams (the safety, not the receiver), no Terrence Newman and no Pacman have left a lot of holes in the secondary. Jason Campbell has had great games against Dallas in his last two chances. Without his weapons, who knows what Campbell will be able to do on Sunday. But, for the rest of the season, the Cowboys are in deep, deep trouble on the defensive side of the ball. If the Redskins can’t take advantage of it, several other teams will. The offense, if healthy, is still dangerous. However, the addition of the other Roy Williams probably won’t pay any dividends until next season. Plus, he is now another mouth to feed. Romo and dead-man-walking Wade Phillips now have to figure out a way to keep Williams, Witten and Marion Barber all happy. Oh, they also have to figure out how to get the ball to Terrell Owens enough to avoid an apocalyptic meltdown. Too many big name players, only one football on each and every play. Not to mention Williams and Owens aren’t exactly happy unless they’re the center of the offense. Not a formula for success.

The Cowboys check in at 5-4 and they’ve already lost two division games. They still have losses upcoming in Philadelphia, in Pittsburgh and at home against the Giants. That would put them at seven losses. Let’s assume that they beat Seattle and San Francisco, two teams that have given up on 2008. That means that Dallas would have to beat both Washington and Baltimore just to make it to 9-7. 10-6 seems out of their reach, and so does the playoffs in the NFC. Romo is not a cure-all. Even if Dallas somehow reaches the playoffs, they won’t be able to win the East. Which means they’ll hit the road as a wild card and most likely have to play in bad conditions in front of a hostile environment…which are two things that Romo hasn’t proven he can handle. That’s making the large assumption the Cowboys have enough to reach the postseason. Without a doubt, if Dallas is to lose in the first round of the postseason, or fail to make it, they will be one of the most disappointing teams in recent memory. Well, disappointing for their fans, certainly not for me.

So can the Redskins make it a clean sweep over Dallas? Not likely. I know that the Redskins beat Dallas, in Dallas, with a completely healthy Romo in the lineup. In fact, the Cowboys are much worse now than they were in late September. Unfortunately, the Redskins have too many injuries to key players to keep up. I know that Portis had truck-size holes to run through in Dallas, and you’d have to figure that even Alexander would be able to run through those holes if they were to appear again, but I don’t see it happening. Without Portis, the Redskins can’t control the clock like they did in Irving. Without a healthy Moss, the Redskins can’t stretch the field and keep the pressure off the running game. Without the two of them, the Redskins offense can’t function and can’t keep a dangerous Cowboys offense off the field. That’s how the Redskins won the first game, but I doubt they’d be able to do it again. Plus, the Cowboys are not a very happy team right now. They’ve been hearing about how bad and embarrassing they’ve played for the past month, and they’re looking for revenge over the Redskins. Add in the rivalry factor, and they are going to be really fired up to play this one. Something tells me they are going to take out their frustrations this week. Like the Redskins, they’ve had two weeks to prepare. They’ve gotten a good, long look at Jim Zorn’s offense. Unlike the Redskins, they are relatively healthy. It doesn’t look promising.

The Redskins don’t have to win this game to make the playoffs. They’ve got enough winnable games left on their schedule to get to 10. However, a loss here would pretty much end the Skins chances of winning the division. Then it’s back on the road in the playoffs…again. This time, with a quarterback who has never seen a single second of action of postseason play. The goal should still be to win the division. If the Skins let the Giants get too far ahead of them, that game on the 30th won’t mean a thing. I don’t know how the Redskins can pull this one off, but here’s hoping they do.


As for the rest of my picks, I’m mailing it in this week. I’m already 0-1 (thank you hooded bum), but with my 10-3 performance last week, the overall record is up to 82-54. The spread record is 69-61-4 after a poor 6-7 week. Sorry for the straight picks and no commentary this week. I’m working on some college basketball stuff which will be on here by the end of the month. As always, don’t use the following picks for gambling purposes. Home team in bold.

Falcons (6-3)(-6) over Broncos (5-4)
Dolphins (5-4) over Raiders (2-7), Raiders cover (+10)
Giants (8-1) over Ravens (6-3), Ravens cover (+7.5)
Colts (5-4)(-7.5) over Texans (3-6)
Packers (4-5)(-3) over Bears (5-4)
Eagles (5-4)(-9) over Bengals (1-8)
Saints (4-5)(-5) over Chiefs
Panthers (7-2)(-14) over Lions (0-9)
Vikings (5-4)(+4) over Buccaneers (6-3)
Rams (2-7)(+7) over 49ers (2-7)
Cardinals (6-3)(-3) over Seahawks (2-7)
Jaguars (4-5)(+3) over Titans (9-0)
-yep, got a good feeling about this one
Steelers (6-3)(-4) over Chargers (4-5)
Bills (5-4)(-5) over Browns