NFL Week 10: Keep Your Pants On

I honestly didn’t realize that the NFL was going to continue this silly Thursday night game junk this season until it was too late. I probably would have picked Cleveland, but I’ll happily take the no pick for the titanic Broncos-Browns game. I’ll try to remember the Thursday night game in time for next week. I had another 8-5 week with a 7-6 record against the spread. That takes me up to 71-50 and 63-54-4 on the season. As always, don’t use the following picks for gambling purposes.

SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) vs. Houston Texans (3-5)(PK)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
After a rather impressive win against Cleveland, the Ravens hit the road again for their make-up game from Hurricane Ike with Houston. What was impressive for Baltimore was the way they came back after appearing dead in the water midway through the third quarter. Then the offense put 24 straight points on the board. Where did that come from? I believe it was partly due to Cleveland’s crappy defense and partly because Baltimore’s offensive line is starting to click. Either way, I still have trouble taking Baltimore seriously. They still have all four of their games remaining against the NFC East, and a game against Pittsburgh after the Steelers have time to get healthy. They’re still looking at a minimum of four more losses. Still, in the suddenly weakened AFC, that could be enough for the sixth spot. I doubt it, but it’s possible. A loss here wouldn’t help.
Pick: Ravens

New Orleans Saints (4-4) vs. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
Still not sold on the Falcons, sorry. Saints should take advantage of the bye week and catch the Falcons after a cross-country trip. Plus, the Saints offense should have a field day.
Pick: Saints

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5)(-7) vs. Detroit Lions (0-8)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
You could make the case for Minnesota, New Orleans, San Diego, Dallas or Cleveland being the most disappointing teams of the year thus far. I’d like to nominate Jacksonville. Minnesota is still only one game out of first in the terrible NFC North. If they can get average play from Gus Frerotte the rest of the way, they could sneak on top of the division with 9 wins. New Orleans is getting healthy and has a soft schedule. They probably won’t win the South, but they could still get to 10 wins and have a playoff opportunity. San Diego’s collapse should have been obvious to see, considering Norv Turner is the head coach. And on this page, I told you that Dallas and Cleveland were both massively overrated back in August. Jacksonville was supposed to be a 10-11 win team with one of the best running games and one of the NFL’s best defenses. Turns out we were in the right division, but talking about the wrong team. Tennessee has become what everyone expected from Jacksonville. Meanwhile, David Garrard has come back down to Earth a little bit and the offensive line has been decimated by injuires. I can’t tell you why other teams have been able to run all over the Jaguars formerly superior defense, but it probably wouldn’t have mattered much. One team that hasn’t been a disappointment is Detroit. We expected them to be terrible, and they haven’t let us down.
Pick: Jaguars

Tennessee Titans (8-0)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (5-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
At this time last week, I was planning to pick Chicago to upset Tennessee. However, the injury to Kyle Orton will either mean Orton plays hurt against a great defense…or Rex Grossman plays healthy against a great defense. Neither scenario excites me much.
Pick: Titans

Buffalo Bills (5-3) vs. New England Patriots (5-3)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Twice now I’ve come close to picking upsets against the Bills by division opponents. Twice I backed down at the last minute. This won’t be an upset, but I’m not going to be fooled by Buffalo again.
Pick: Patriots

St. Louis Rams (2-6) vs. New York Jets (5-3)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Something tells me this won’t be an easy game for the Jets. Teams have been able to run on them, and assuming Steven Jackson is healthy, the Rams should be able to do the same. Plus, the Jets are coming off a big road win last week in Buffalo, and could be in for a trap game.
Pick: Jets, Rams cover

Seattle Seahawks (2-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (4-4)(-8)
1:00 p.m. Dolphin Stadium
This will be road trip #4 to the East Coast for Seattle. So far they are 0-3 and have been outscored 98-26. I don’t see any reason to think they’re going to fare better against Miami.
Pick: Dolphins

Green Bay Packers (4-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings (4-4)(-2.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Look at it this way, one of these average teams is going to have to jump over .500. So for at least one week, the NFC North will have a grand total of two teams with winning records. Brett Favre had nightmare games in the Metrodome throughout his career. I think Aaron Rodgers is doomed to a similar fate.
Pick: Vikings

Carolina Panthers (6-2)(-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Very quietly, the Panthers have built themselves a solid resume in the NFC. Since the East teams are probably going to beat up on each other for the rest of the season, the Panthers just have to stay healthy and beat Tampa Bay for a solid 12, or even 13, win season. This could easily be the number one seed in the NFC in January.
Pick: Panthers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-5)(-15.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
It’s not everyday you see a 3-5 team as more than a two touchdown favorite. And there’s probably good reason for that. San Diego may be the best 3-5 in the NFL, but they are 3-5 for a reason. Their defense can’t stop anybody. Denver and Detroit may have the only other two defensive units that are worse. Kansas City is bad, but they’ve played some respectable games the past few weeks. I think this will closer than the spread.
Pick: Chargers, Chiefs cover

Indianapolis Colts (4-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)(-3)
4:15 p.m. Heinz Field
It would probably be better if Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play in this one. He injured his throwing shoulder. How good can a quarterback be with a bad throwing shoulder? And it’s not like Byron Leftwich would have to face a great defense in this one. I’ve finally come to grips with the Colts being nothing more than a .500 team. They have a slight chance in this one because of all the players that Pittsburgh will or may be missing.
Pick: Steelers

New York Giants (7-1) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)(-2.5)
8:15 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
This will be the 2nd tough test for the Giants in the last couple of weeks. They impressed me in Pittsburgh (despite all their injuries). The win against Dallas…eh, not so much. Something about beating a team quarterbacked by 50-year-old Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger doesn’t really scream quality win. After a rough first six games or so, the Eagles may actually be the healthiest team in football, and I think that Brian Westbrook will have a huge day.
Pick: Eagles

MONDAY

San Francisco 49ers (2-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)(-9)
8:30 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This is the best they can do for Monday Night? Really? There are several decent games this week…they couldn’t slide one up? Anyway, I agreed with Mike Singletary’s decision to send Vernon Davis off the field. It’s been a long time coming with Vernon, who was spoiled at Maryland but never disciplined by Ralph Friedgen. But as far as dropping his pants in the lockerroom? I gotta tell you, I’m not a fan of it.
Pick: Cardinals

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington

I’m as off this week as the Redskins offensive line was last week. Redskins return next Sunday. Come back at the same bat time and the same bat channel.