NFL Week 8: Take Off Your Pants, Singletary Will Be Along Shortly

Finally had my break through week against the spread…and the overall record wasn’t too bad either. I was 10-2 for Week 7, and I was 10-1-1 against the spread. That bumps the records up to:

Overall: 68-28 (71%)
Vs. Spread: 55-39-2

SUNDAY

Denver Broncos (6-0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-3)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
I’ll start off strong this week. If the Broncos are playing like contenders, I might as well start picking them. The overall Vegas line matches my own personal over/under line for personal foul calls against the Baltimore defense this week.
Pick: Broncos

New York Giants (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Not having Brian Westbrook would be a big deal for the Eagles if they ever ran the ball. LeSean McCoy is just as effective at not getting the football as Westbrook is.
Pick: Giants

Cleveland Browns (1-6) vs. Chicago Bears (3-3)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
You would think that with the Vikings and Packers blowing by them in the standings, the Bears would have wanted to at least make their game competitive last week. I watched most of the first half of that Bears-Bengals contest, and one of two things is true. One, the Bengals are the Super Bowl favorite right now. Two, the Bears aren’t capable of going .500 the rest of the season. I think the latter is more likely.
Pick: Bears

Houston Texans (4-3)(-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-4)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The Bills keep finding themselves in games with odd lines. Last week they were giving seven to a bad Carolina team. Now they are giving four at home against an up and down Texans team that may or may not have the services of Andre Johnson. Eeesh, I want to take the Bills...but I can't.
Pick: Texans

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-0)(-12)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
Here are two facts for you. The 49ers have looked terrible during their last two games. Mike Singletary has yet to drop his pants during those two performances. Coincidence? I think not.
Pick: Colts

Miami Dolphins (2-4) vs. New York Jets (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
I’ve listened to everyone slurp the Dolphins and the Wildcat offense the past few weeks. I’m not sure if anyone else has noticed the Dolphins 2-4 record? Does anyone else see that? Let’s talk about that before we start gushing about the Wildcat offense.
Pick: Dolphins

St. Louis Rams (0-7) vs. Detroit Lions (1-5)(-4)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
Really NFL? Really? I don’t know what I could possibly say about this one. The only reason to go with Detroit instead of St. Louis is because the Lions are coming off a bye week. Pay no attention to that -4 line. It’s meaningless (much like this game). It took me several minutes to find a betting site that even had a line listed. Most places aren’t even letting you put money on this game. That’s right, Vegas doesn’t even know what to do with this one.
Pick: Lions

Seattle Seahawks (2-4) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-2)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
I really don’t know how the Cowboys have managed to go 4-2. They aren’t that good. Their second half schedule will prove it. This game may even go a long way towards proving it.
Pick: Cowboys, Seahawks cover

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-6)(-3)
4:05 p.m. LP Field
For the Redskins fans who can’t comprehend the positive effect that Albert Haynesworth is having for the defense, first check out Andre Carter’s and Brian Orakpo’s statistics. Then look at Tennessee’s defensive statistics. Maybe not worth the $45 million guaranteed, but Kyle Vanden Bosch would sure love him to come back to Nashville.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (2-5) vs. San Diego Chargers (3-3)(-16.5)
4:05 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
My girlfriend and I are in the same fantasy football league. We both had defenses on the bye this week. I had a higher priority wavier than she did. She begged me not to pick up San Diego’s defense. I’ll be starting Arizona this week…I’m such a sucker.
Pick: Chargers

Carolina Panthers (2-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Go Arizona defense!!! Meanwhile, since I spend a lot of time criticizing some of my own stupid predictions, it’s about time I praise myself. No one had the Cardinals covering the spread last week, let alone had them beating the Giants on the road…no one except for me.
Pick: Cardinals

Minnesota Vikings (6-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-2)(-3.5)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Gag me. Didn’t we just go through this Brett Favre nonsense a couple of weeks ago? What’s stunning is this game isn’t in primetime on either Sunday or Monday night. How did the NFL allow this to become a 4:15 game?
Pick: Vikings

MONDAY

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (6-0)(-10)
8:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Even when Miami was up 24-3 on New Orleans, I had NO doubt that the Saints would come back in that game. In fact, I was surprised it took them until the fourth quarter to take the lead. I expected them to be winning by the middle of the third.
Pick: Saints, Falcons cover

Bye Week: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

Eagles at Redskins: Will The Last Man Standing Turn Off The Lights

Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) vs. Washington Redskins (2-4)
8:30 p.m. FedEx Field
Well, it will be fun for the Redskins to play a franchise almost as dysfunctional as themselves at the current moment. No, the Eagles don’t have a quarterback controversy (at least not yet). Their coach’s hot seat is warm, but not boiling (at least not yet). Their disgusting fan base is angry, but not enraged (we’ll see what happens after the Phillies lose the World Series). However, they did just lose to Oakland. And it didn’t look any better than the boxscore indicated.

The Redskins problems are out there in the open. They’ve been the big story everywhere this week. Something tells me that ESPN is only covering the Jim Zorn fiasco because the Skins happen to be playing on their network. If this game was a 1:00 FOX game, I don’t think ESPN would have focused much on the Redskins. They haven’t focused on the team all season, even when they hired Sherm Lewis two weeks ago. How convenient that they start covering the team this week. I caught one of their roundtable discussions on Wednesday, when they were talking about poor Jim Zorn and how much Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato are idiots for not giving him a vote of confidence. Then I caught another one on Friday night, after Cerrato issued the vote of confidence, and the same talking heads were blabbering on about how Zorn should be fired. Just goes to reaffirm my belief that ESPN is more interested in creating their own news rather than covering the actual news. It’s enough to make your head spin. But I digress.

Is Jim Zorn still coaching, or does he have no power? Will Jason Campbell start or not start? Will he seem to care or not care? Who is actually going to be calling the plays? Is Cerrato actually crazy, or does he continue to make moves and statements that aren’t rational because he still doesn’t know how crazy he sounds? His bug-eyes aren’t helping any of us determine to answer to that. At this point, does it really matter? Probably not. True, the Redskins have a history of beating teams they shouldn’t and then playing down to inferior competition. We’ve already seen the latter part of that this season, and this will be the first week that we get to see the Skins test the former.

The Eagles, as you might imagine, are overhyped. It happens every year. They are part of the Holy Quintet (Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Patriots & whatever team Brett Favre is on). They are always supposed to be better than record indicates if you listen to ESPN or other sports outlets. Their three wins are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Their losses are to New Orleans and Oakland. Neither of those were pretty. There’s obviously no shame losing to the Saints, but the Eagles were blown out. The Saints made it clear that Philadelphia is a second-tier NFC team. The loss to the Raiders, which is embarrassing, proved that fact. At 3-2, the Eagles are probably much worse than their record indicates.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but the majority of the problem is coaching and execution. The Eagles linebackers and secondary have been depleted because of the injury bug. I said in the preseason that it was stupid to allow Brian Dawkins to walk in his free agency year. I guaranteed that he had at least two more good seasons left in him. Not only that, but he was the one constant in Philly’s ever-revolving-door in the secondary and he was a team leader. But they let Dawkins go to Denver, where he has played extremely well. Meanwhile, the Eagles back seven have been very vulnerable.

The coaching staff is another issue. It started with the death of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson in the off-season. I’ve long said that he was the best coach the Eagles had during the last ten years, and that includes the current coach and father-of-the-decade candidate Andy Reid. The defense, against decent offenses, hasn’t looked the same. They’re still blitzing, but they are not as effective. And remember, they haven’t faced the Cowboys or Giants yet. They still have to play the Broncos and Chargers. They still have to play Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Other than the Saints, who completely embarrassed the defense, they haven’t faced a lot of great offenses yet. This is a problem that’s only going to get worse. Reid is just a lousy coach, and Johnson’s replacement has yet to fill the void on Reid’s staff.

Offensively, it’s the same old story. Donovan McNabb is great one week and bad the next. McNabb still can’t stay healthy either. Brian Westbrook continues his career-long bout with the injury bug as well. Despite having two talented running backs and a decent offensive line, Reid and his brilliant offensive assistants continue to throw the ball more than just about every team in the league. And this year, they’ve even hired Michael Vick. Considering his past, there’s no more perfect city for Vick to call home than Philadelphia. He fits right in with the other criminals that reside there. However, it doesn’t appear that Vick fits in with the Eagles, since his impact has been almost non-existent.

Look, this game is going to probably be pretty ugly. If the Redskins somehow turn a minor miracle and win this game, I think it would be the upset of the season so far. Even more surprising than Philly’s loss last week. But with the Eagles penchant to blitz, and the Redskins MASH unit on the offensive line, there’s no way the Skins offense is going to do better this week than in the last few Sundays. And even if things are open downfield, what’s the likelihood that Campbell’s going to make plays? The Skins defense will keep them in the game, but the offense will probably let the team down again.

NFL Week 7: Overseas Travel Tips

The overall record was once again great for Week 6 (9-4) but the record against the spread was literally strictly average (6-6-1). Here are the records so far:

Overall: 58-26 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 45-38-1

SUNDAY

San Diego Chargers (2-3)(-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Did anyone ever check to see if Al Groh and Norv Turner are the same person? Has anyone ever seen them in the same room or stadium together? How many times can both coaches start poorly, get hot, finish around .500 and save their jobs before their employers decide to hire someone that’s competent?
Pick: Chargers

Indianapolis Colts (5-0)(-13) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
The Colts did not need the bye week to get ready for this game. In fact, they only really needed the amount of time a bus ride would take to St. Louis.
Pick: Colts

Chicago Bears (3-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)(-1.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Field
I really should have seen Cincy’s loss to Houston coming. Classic trap game. As for the Bears, I’m not sure what they saw in Jay Cutler that was worth giving him a 2-year extension. I’m not sure what part of their 3-2 record was that impressive. Kyle Orton (remember him?) is 6-0 in Denver. Seems like the wrong QB got the extension.
Pick: Bengals

Green Bay Packers (3-2)(-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-5)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
This one reeks of a game the Packers are going to give away. They simply aren’t that good. They are clearly the 3rd best team in their division. I won’t pick it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip up here.
Pick: Packers

Minnesota Vikings (6-0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)(-4.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Brett Favre had his FIRST decent game of the season against the Ravens. You wouldn’t know that by listening to FOX, CBS, ESPN, CNN, CBC, NBC, the NRA or the IRS. But Favre finally showed that even 40-year quarterbacks can help win a game once and awhile. The Vikings run ends here, and the beginning of the “What’s Wrong with Favre” segments begin on all the ESPN shows.
Pick: Steelers

New England Patriots (4-2)(-14) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)
1:00 p.m. Wembley Stadium in London, England
Again with the England game. Ok, NFL. We all get it. You are trying to spread the game globally. Well done! Perhaps sending a winless team over to London for the 2nd time in three seasons isn’t the best way to sell American Football. Especially a winless team that’s forced to play an opponent who could have easily put up 80 points or more last week. By the way, is there any chance that Bill Belichick won't be allowed back in the country?
Pick: Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (3-2) vs. Houston Texans (3-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
This really isn’t fair. The NFL decides to put the two most schizo franchises on a field together and forces me to pick between the two. While the Texans have had some quizzical losses, they have yet to lose by 35 points at home, like the 49ers have. Two weeks ago I praised the 49ers for appearing to be relevant again. Then they stick up the joint against Atlanta. Give me Houston at home.
Pick: Texans

New York Jets (3-3)(-6.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Speaking of schizo, how about this matchup. The Jets get off to a 3-0 start (even though everyone knew they weren’t that good), then lose three straight. The most recent of which came at home to the Bills, a team that seemingly gave up on their season back in September. Mark Sanchez goes from the Sanch-ise to five interceptions in the span of 21 days. And the Jets aren’t even the most confusing team on the field in this game. The Raiders, after being blown out in consecutive weeks, completely embarrass the Eagles. Now I know the Eagles weren’t as good as their 3-1 record indicated, but under no circumstances should they have lost that game. So a team that can’t hold on to the ball has to make a cross-country trip to play a team that is among the worst run franchises in professional sports. I’m just closing my eyes and pointing randomly to make a pick at this point.
Pick: Jets

Buffalo Bills (2-4) vs. Carolina Panthers (2-3)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Here’s another one I don’t know what to do with. I could easily take Carolina since they get to face a Bills team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. But that’s the same Fitzpatrick that made fewer mistakes than Sanchez last week and somehow helped Buffalo win. I’m just going to play it safe.
Pick: Panthers, Bills cover

New Orleans Saints (5-0)(-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (2-3)
4:15 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
The Saints proved that they are far and away the best team in the NFC. Miami has proven throughout the season that they are strictly middle-of-the-pack in the AFC. However, Miami has had two weeks to get ready for this, so it should be much closer for New Orleans than their game was last week.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)(-4.5)
4:15 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Clearly Las Vegas has not been watching the Cowboys this season. They’ve had one decent game, and that was against the Buccaneers. They got dominated by Denver and the Giants. They should have lost to Kansas City. They played even with Carolina. The schedule has helped this team to 3-2. But it’s time to face it…despite all the talent on that roster, the Cowboys are a below average team.
Pick: Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) vs. New York Giants (5-1)(-7)
8:20 p.m. Giants Stadium
All the experts are usually quick to point out that the Cardinals can’t win on the East Coast. I used to be one of those people. However, Arizona has won their last two East Coast games, including that playoff win last season in Charlotte. The Cardinals get in trouble when they have to play a 1:00 p.m. game in this time zone. As you can see, that won’t be a problem for Arizona. As for the Giants, they were exposed last week in their first real test of the season. This is their second. The Cards are rolling, and a night game against the Giants shouldn’t stop that roll.
Pick: Cardinals

Bye Week: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

Chiefs at Redskins: Holding The Line

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) vs. Washington Redskins (2-3)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
There’s not a whole lot to say, so I’ll keep it short. Nothing less than two straight victories will save Jim Zorn’s job. The bye week is rapidly approaching, and unless they can pull off what seems to be a minor miracle by beating the Eagles next Monday, Dan Snyder appears ready to sink the season and start from scratch. On the plus side, Maryland Madness was this weekend. The Terps should be in the Top 25 and should be a fun team to watch. At least there’s that.

I hate to keep saying it, but this isn’t Zorn’s fault. I sound like a broken record at this point. Yes, there have been questions about clock management and in-game adjustments. But we all had the same questions about Joe Gibbs during his second go around. And I have a hard time blaming Dan Snyder. Sure he treats the fans like crap. But in terms of putting money into the team, you couldn’t ask for a better owner. He will buy a championship if he’s allowed to (and he may be able to next season). That’s all you can really ask for. I also root for the Orioles, whose owner always tries to go the cheap route and the team has been a laughingstock for a decade because of it. At least the Redskins are competitive most seasons. I never blame the owner for meddling with the team. It’s their millions and it’s their franchise. Only in the sports business is an owner “supposed to” send out all the paychecks and then keep his nose out of how the organization is run. If an owner of any other company did that, they’d be crazy and probably be bankrupt in no time flat.

I will remain on record as saying that Vinny Cerrato and Greg Blache (which I’ve gone over at great length) are the most to blame for this mess. Cerrato is here because of one reason: he’s a yes man. Snyder loves yes men. If Cerrato had any balls as a GM he would tell Snyder why it wasn’t such a good idea to sink $40 million into Adam Archuleta. He would stand up to Snyder and tell him to draft linemen instead of receivers. He would take responsibilities for some of the terrible moves he’s made instead of letting his coach twist in the wind. But he refuses to do any of that.

It’s because of Cerrato that the team had no capable backup to Chris Samuels last week. If they had one, the Redskins would have coasted to victory. They were up 17-2, and if they had depth at the offensive line, they would have run the Panthers into the ground. But they couldn’t. They couldn’t run or pass. Not with D’Anthony Batiste and Stephon Heyer as the two offensive tackles. Not with 350 pound (or 375…400…who knows) Mike Williams at guard. The only place the Skins could run was behind Casey Rabach and Derrick Dockery, and it didn’t take the Panthers long to figure out what the Skins were trying to do.

The offensive line was a problem last year. It was a problem in March, before free agency began. It was a problem in April before the draft. It was a problem during the summer, when teams made cutdowns and decent backups were on the market. Through it all, the Redskins and Cerrato decided to sign only Williams, who hadn’t played an NFL game in three seasons. Every Redskins fan could have told you that the main issue for the team was the offensive line. It wasn’t fixed in the off-season. I even said as much during my season preview. The Redskins were only going to play well as long as their offensive line was intact. They lost Randy Thomas a few weeks ago, and now Chris Samuels is going to be out until at least the bye week. I’m not saying that you have to have All-Pros waiting in the wings, but you have to have capable NFL bodies. Not Heyer, not Williams and not Batiste. This problem is on Cerrato. Period.

I said I would keep it short, so let’s move on the Chiefs. I expected Kansas City to finish around .500 this season. For those staring at their 0-5 record and laughing at me, a .500 finish could still happen. The Chiefs had to play the Ravens and the entire NFC East during the first six weeks of the season. Their loss to the Raiders was inexcusable (even though Matt Cassel didn’t play), but the other four losses were expected. And their schedule gets must easier the rest of the way. Kansas City is not as bad as their record indicates. They’ve been getting better week by week. They hung with the Giants for three quarters. They dominated the Cowboys and choked that game away. This really isn’t a bad team. They are a young team, but not a bad one.

The current problem for Kansas City is their former strength: the run game. The Chiefs had Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson in their primes. Holmes is long gone, and Johnson might as well be too. Johnson averages 4.4 yards per carry for his career, but is under 2.5 this season. The Chiefs line isn’t great, but the real problem is Johnson himself. The miles have finally caught up to him. Without him, or an effective backup (Jamaal Charles doesn’t count), the Chiefs offense is completely one dimensional. And since Cassel was hurt for the first few weeks of the season, even their passing game was dreadful.

Cassel is back, and close to 100% healthy. I expect the Chiefs to move the ball relatively well. The question will be how can the Redskins and their make-shift offensive line move against KC. Their secondary is well below NFL average, but their front seven is starting to come into their own. Again, they are young. But the talent is starting to show this season. Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey on the ends should be a force over the next five years for the Chiefs. Tamba Ali (who is hybrid who primarily plays OLB in KC’s 3-4 scheme), Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays also give the Chiefs hope of a solid linebacking corps in the future. And if Derrick Johnson’s head ever catches up to his natural talent, then this front seven is set until at least 2014.

This will probably be an ugly game in the first half. The Redskins will need at least a half to figure out what they can and cannot do with their offensive line. Kansas City will need at least a half to fool around with the run game until giving up and going to the air. It should be low-scoring and close, but what Redskins game isn’t? Hopefully the burgundy and gold can win this one, and try to save their season next week.

NFL Week 6: Not Winless, But Still Hopeless

Another solid overall week (9-4) was combined with another lousy week against the spread (7-6). Eventually I’ll catch up to Vegas, but in the meantime, the records look like this:

Overall: 49-22 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 39-32

SUNDAY

Houston Texans (2-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1)(-5.5)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
I still have a feeling that the Bengals are just leading their poor fans along until they collapse. This would be a classic letdown game for them. However, the Bengals have three straight home games and a bye week, so they don’t have to play on the road for another month. In other news, I think I’ve finally figured out the Jekyll and Hyde Texans.
Pick: Bengals

Cleveland Browns (1-4) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)(-13)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
Remove the Browns from the winless list. I’m willing to bet it will be their only win this season. I think Cleveland truly is the worst team in the NFL this year. The problem for Cleveland is they still need a quarterback, but they’ve already invested so much money into that position already. Brady Quinn has not just been the failure I predicted; he’s been a tremendous failure. So can the Browns actually invest more money in a QB when they also have so many other gaping holes?
Pick: Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) vs. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Again, the day of reckoning is coming for the Vikings. They will not win the Super Bowl with their Narcissistic quarterback. It just won’t be here. Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to cost themselves games with idiotic penalties. Why in the world is Frank Walker committing a five-yard pass interference penalty on a 3rd-and-16 pass late in the game? I think it’s fair to say the Ravens are the dumbest team in the NFL.
Pick: Vikings

St. Louis Rams (0-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)(-9.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
The Jaguars just lost by 41 points to a 1-3 football team…and they’re favored by 9.5 points! Yes, that’s how bad the Rams are.
Pick: Jaguars

New York Giants (5-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-0)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
This will be the Giants first trip to New Orleans since 2005. Oh wait, that “road” game was played at the Meadowlands. Despite Hurricane Katrina, the NFL still looks ridiculous for allowing the Giants to play nine home games that season while everyone else had to play eight. By the way, the Giants won the NFC East by exactly one game that season. As for 2009, this will be the Giants first true road test, and I don’t think they’re up for it.
Pick: Saints

Carolina Panthers (1-3)(-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
Your guess is as good as mine. I guess I’ll go with the team that actually managed to beat the Redskins.
Pick: Panthers

Detroit Lions (1-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (2-2)(-14)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
I know that the Lions stink. I know the Packers had two weeks to prepare for this game. I know the game is being played in Green Bay. Still, something smells about this line and about this Packers team. Like Dallas, I have a feeling that the Packers continue to be overrated. I had them going 7-9 in my preseason predictions, and it appears that they are still headed straight on that course.
Pick: Packers, Lions cover

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-3)(-3)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
After the 49ers laid an egg and were exposed last weekend, this game takes on added importance in the race for the NFC West title. And by “race” I mean whichever team screws up the least for the next 11 weeks. I haven’t taken an upset yet, so what the heck.
Pick: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)(-13.5) vs. Oakland Raiders (1-4)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Remember when I said the Raiders weren’t that bad. Ignore that. They are that bad.
Pick: Eagles

Buffalo Bills (1-4) vs. New York Jets (3-2)(-10)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
Speaking of bad, here come the Buffalo Bills. I’m sure the point has been made several times this week, but this is a team that allowed Derek Anderson to only complete 2 of 17 passes for 23 yards…AND LOST! TO THE BROWNS! I don’t know if it gets much worse than that.
Pick: Jets, Bills cover

Tennessee Titans (0-5) vs. New England Patriots (3-2)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
More signs that Tom Brady still isn’t close to being 100% and the Patriots are in trouble: Brady has a completion percentage of 61.4%. That would be lower than Jason Campbell, Seneca Wallace, Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton. It’s only hair above Brady Quinn. Yikes.
Pick: Patriots

Chicago Bears (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-1)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Georgia Dome
This should be a great Sunday Night game and an important game for both teams. Despite playing well, both continue to lose ground in their divisions to Minnesota and New Orleans respectively. The loser of this game probably finds themselves down at least two games in the loss column. It’s probably more important for the Falcons to take this one. They have already lost to the Saints once, where as Chicago at least has two later chances against Minnesota.
Pick: Falcons

MONDAY

Denver Broncos (5-0) vs. San Diego Chargers (2-2)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
I still don’t think I’ve taken Denver to win yet this season. The defense does seem to be legitimate, but I’m still not buying this smoke and mirrors offense. This is also the same Denver team that lost a three game lead with three to play last season. So we’ll see how the Broncos do in the second half of the season.
Pick: Chargers

Bye Week: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco

Redskins at Panthers: Consulting Firm

Washington Redskins (2-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Well, the Redskins won at least. And for at least one game, or at least one half, there was moderate improvement. The offense that showed promise last season showed up in the second half. We not only saw a touchdown drive, we saw a big pass play for the second week in a row. More on the offense in minute. Most importantly, we saw the defense play up to their capabilities. Not counting the touchdown pass, since the Buccaneers drive started at the Washington 10, the defense allowed only two real drives the entire game and surrendered six points. They stopped Cadillac Williams and company from running on them. They pressured Josh Johnson. I know Johnson is essentially a rookie, but he made some very good decisions to pull the ball down and run (however, he looked scared to throw the ball). It’s not a great measuring stick for the Redskins defense, but they at least put pressure on the quarterback and got off the field on 3rd down. It was some combination of the Bucs line being terrible and Greg Blache (who is no longer talking to the media) finally taking some chances with his decent front seven.

Now to the big story over the past week. The offense looked good in the second half, but apparently not good enough to stop Dan Snyder and Vinny Cerrato from hiring Sherman Lewis as an “offensive consultant”. I’m not sure what that means, and I’m not sure the Redskins know what this means. Jim Zorn was not consulted about the consultant before he was hired. As of Wednesday, Lewis had no set role in the Redskins coaching system. It had many people confused for several days.

Now, I figured out in two minutes what it took the local sports media two days to realize. Lewis was brought in as a security blanket and a back-up option for Snyder in case he wants to relieve Zorn of his coaching duties. One of two things are going to happen. The first option is that Zorn and Sherman Smith are going to get their offense clicking and the Redskins are going to start winning games. If that occurs, Lewis hangs around Redskins Park the rest of the season, gets a big fat paycheck from Snyder, is thanked for his service, and sent on his way at the end of the year. The second option is that the offense continues to struggle, the Redskins drop two of their next three games, Snyder gets rid of Zorn and promotes Blache (ugh) for the rest of the season, and Lewis becomes Blache’s offensive coordinator. The hiring takes place after another overall lackluster performance by the offense, and three weeks before the bye week (which would be the most likely time for Snyder to make a move). I heard columnist Mike Wise say that Snyder was simply “hedging his bets”. Lewis is one of the godfathers of the West Coast Offense, so I’m sure he has some insight to share with the rest of the class. If things get real ugly in the next month, then Lewis has had about 30 days to familiarize himself with the players and personnel, and can be ready to call plays for his good friend Blache. There’s also a third option. With Sherman Smith already on the coaching staff, maybe Snyder wants to start building a coaching staff of just people named Sherman. It’s a reach, but I still leave it out there as a possibility.

In essence, this was the right move by Snyder, but it was done in typical-Snyder fashion. Let’s say the Redskins lose two of their next three. The Skins are 3-4 going into the bye week. Zorn gets fired. In the NFL, 3-4 is not nearly bad enough to give up on the season. You certainly don’t want to tell an already unhappy fan base that you are conceding the season in the first week of November. It’s also likely that there will be a host of 9-7/8-8 type teams competing for the last two playoff spots in the NFC. Whatever the case may be, if Snyder wants to go through with a change, then it makes sense to start preparing for it now so the rest of the season doesn’t go down the drain.

But, there are better ways to do it. You don’t send Cerrato out to a press conference admitting that he doesn’t know what roll Lewis will serve. Hell, make up a roll. Just don’t tell the media that you don’t know. Secondly, don’t have Cerrato doing the press conference in the first place. Snyder should have been out there himself, and while announcing the hiring, should have given Zorn a vote of confidence at the same time. Finally, it’s common courtesy to at least inform the head coach that this is about to happen. You can’t just drop it on him.

Whatever the case may be, it added a lot of unnecessary drama to a team that doesn’t need any more of it. It complicated what will be another difficult week for the Redskins, as they face their toughest test since opening week. In the standings, the Carolina Panthers are easy to ignore at 0-3. The offense has 12 turnovers in three games. The defense is ranked 23rd in the league and has given up more than 350 yards of offense a game. John Fox, for the first time in a long time, is on the hot seat. Things may be uglier in Charlotte than they are in Ashburn and Landover.

However, this game would not be easy for any team, especially a Redskins team that always plays down to its competition. The Panthers lost their three games to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas. So it’s not as if they’ve played three sisters of the poor. The Panthers get this game at home, where they were 8-0 during the regular season last year. Plus, the Panthers are coming off their bye week and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. One of my favorite stats continues to be the one that focuses on the win percentage of teams coming off their bye playing teams that don’t come off one. The team that had the bye week wins nearly 75% of the time. So, when the Redskins had to play four teams coming off their bye week in 2006, it was if the schedule already handed them three losses.

Just like the Redskins, I think the Panthers are simply too talented to struggle like this all season. Jake Delhomme’s problems have been well documented. He’s been a deer in headlights since his five interception performance against Arizona in the playoffs. However, this team still has Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (who may not play due to an achilles injury) on offense. That’s a load of talent. Defensively, Carolina has showed signs of putting things together in the last two weeks after a rough debut against the Eagles. They too have plenty of talent with Julius Peppers, Na’il Diggs, Jon Beason and Chris Gamble still on the squad. No, this isn’t the same team that had a deadly pass rush just a couple of seasons ago. But they are still fast, and they still apply plenty of pressure on the quarterback.

The big question mark is Delhomme. This is a quarterback who has been to the playoffs several times. He led the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII and played well in the game. He’s had several arm surgeries, but has come back with success each time. He has a lifetime completion percentage around 60%. He has 34 more touchdowns than interceptions. It’s not as if he’s unproven. It’s not as if he’s never had success. I don’t fully comprehend his recent struggles. It just seems like he hasn’t been the same quarterback since the end of last season. But it’s hard to argue that he’s a good quarterback right now. He has two touchdowns and seven picks. He has never been mobile. Carolina’s line is not what it once was. All a defense has to do is get someone in his face, and he tends to force his passes. Are you listening Blache?

Once again, the NFL has handed the Redskins a team with a quarterback who can’t move and tends to make bad decisions if rushed. You saw what the Redskins defense was capable of last week when they pressured Johnson. Blitzing Delhomme should be a no-brainer. Offensively, the Redskins HAVE to establish the run. The Panthers are dead last in the NFL in rush defense. They’ve been gashed for nearly 183 yards per game on the ground. This is the game for Mike Sellers to finally start living up to that contract extension he just signed. He’s been non-existent since signing it, and he’s been too busy picking fights with Clinton Portis in the locker room. Time for Mike to put up or shut up. The Redskins must run the ball to win this game. So with the vultures circling, maybe the Redskins bread and butter will finally show up and lead the offense to some success.

NFL Week 5: Dropped The Ball, Blame The Flag

It was a very good week, as I picked a little conservatively and it worked out. I went a terrific 11-2 overall (and one of the games I got wrong was the Denver-Dallas game…so I don’t mind the “L” there) and 9-4 against the spread. So the records look much better this week:

Overall: 40-18 (69%)
vs. Spread: 32-26

SUNDAY

Minnesota Vikings (4-0)(-10) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
For those sick of hearing Brett Favre talk, I’ll try to spare you. However, I had to comment on one exchange from ESPN before the game started. I avoided the majority of the coverage and game, but I tuned just in time to hear Michelle Tafoya ask Mike McCarthy: “What have you done to prepare yourself for when you talk to Favre before the game.” If that’s not the most self-indulgent quote of all-time, I don’t know what is. The gall of Tafoya and ESPN to assume McCarthy wasted his time to actually think through what he would say to the opposing quarterback during warm-ups. McCarthy mocked the question and walked away. He’s still a lousy coach, but he moves up a peg in my book.
Pick: Vikings

Dallas Cowboys (2-2)(-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
Say it after me: The Cowboys are a below average team. Tony Romo is not even close to being a Top 10 NFL quarterback. Jerry Jones is still the worst owner in the game. Repeat as needed.
Pick: Cowboys, Chiefs cover

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)(-14.5)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Donovan McNabb returns (until his next injury) and Josh Johnson showed enough against the Redskins to start opposite of him (until Raheem Morris goes to Josh Freeman, which should be any day now).
Pick: Eagles

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs. New York Giants (4-0)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
The Giants are getting 16 points? We haven’t seen lines like this since the 2007 New England Patriots. The Giants are good, but they are not that good. Nowhere near it in fact. Plus Eli Manning may or may not play and certainly won’t be 100%. I know that JaMarcus Russell couldn’t hit Gilbert Brown with a screen pass, but still…16 points is an awful lot.
Pick: Giants, Raiders cover

Cleveland Browns (0-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3)(-6)
1:00 p.m. Ralph Wilson Stadium
The loser of the game might as well just fire the coach/cut their crazy wide receiver/start their 3rd string quarterback/move to Toronto. Fill in the blank for the appropriate team.
Pick: Bills

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)(-8)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
According to the Ravens, they haven’t lost a game in the past three seasons. They only have wins taken away by the referees. Seriously, for a team that embraces its thuggish side, I’ve never seen a bigger collection of crybabies. I have an idea, if you want to stop the officials from throwing flags, stop hitting the opposing quarterbacks in the head! That’s been a penalty for over a decade. You can’t do it. It’s a penalty. Stop blaming the fucking refs. Try signing receivers that can catch a pass that hits them right between the numbers.
Pick: Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)(-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions (1-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
This is another line that concerns me. The Steelers played like gangbusters last week (at least for three quarters) and proved that they are still the best team in the AFC North and still among the AFC elite. Something tells me that they nap through most of this one.
Pick: Steelers

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-1)(-2)
4:05 p.m. Candlestick Park
Before we get too carried away with the 49ers, let’s see if they can defend their home turf against a team making a 3,000-mile road trip. I’ll take the Falcons, if for nothing else, because they are coming off their bye week and have two weeks to prepare.
Pick: Falcons

New England Patriots (3-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (4-0)
4:15 p.m.
Denver’s first four opponents were 6-10. Their next four opponents are 10-6. Let’s see if that miracle play continues to carry this team.
Pick: Patriots

Houston Texans (2-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-2)(-5)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
Finally, I got a Texans game right! I know they were playing the Raiders, but I finally got off the schnide. Still, I can’t completely figure this team out. Again, I’ll play it safe and take the team coming off their bye week.
Pick: Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)(Pick-em)
4:15 p.m. Qwest Field
The Jaguars have averaged just over 47,000 fans in their first two home games this season. And that’s the announced attendance. I have a feeling that the actual attendance is well under 40,000. Since they’re already on the West Coast, maybe they should save themselves the longer trip and just start playing in Los Angeles.
Pick: Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts (4-0)(-4) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
8:20 p.m. LP Field
Don’t look now, but the two teams I predicted in the Super Bowl are a combined 8-0 and playing teams this week that are a combined 1-7. Right now, the Colts have an easy path to the Super Bowl. The Titans, who figured to be their toughest competition in the AFC South, are already four games behind them. The darkhorse Texans are already two back. A win here, and the Colts can pretty much cruise to a division title and a certain bye week in the postseason.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

New York Jets (3-1)(-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-3)
8:30 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
Last chance for the Dolphins to make a stand before they fall three games behind both New York and New England. I hate to say I told you so, but I definitely saw this 1-3 start coming. I also called Mark Sanchez having a bad week against the Saints. Let’s stop anointing him the next New York savior until he gets through an entire season.
Pick: Jets

Bye Week: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego

Buccaneers at Redskins: If I've Told You Once, I've Told You 1,000 Times...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) vs. Washington Redskins (1-2)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, it was embarrassing. No, I haven’t been able to watch any football for the past week. I honestly don’t know what happened in most of last week’s later games. Other than checking my fantasy football team, I’ve pretty much stayed away from the NFL as a whole. Losing to a team on a 19-game losing streak will do that. And as bad as the Lions were and are, it’s not like the majority of Redskins didn’t see this coming. This is what they do. They win games they shouldn’t. They lose games they shouldn’t. They make terrible opponents look like world beaters. Yet, they manage to usually give upper echelon teams decent games.

Now it’s time to look ahead. It beats looking back. It’s time to start that “Redskins fan mentality” of convincing yourself that your team is better than they probably are. Maybe that’s what I’m about to do. Maybe I’m just looking at the schedule and still being optimistic. Maybe I’m just telling it like it is. Maybe a combination of all three. Coming in to the season, I figured the Skins would be 3-2 after five games. I figured the wins would come against St. Louis, Detroit and Tampa. The losses would be to New York and Carolina. Well, Carolina is a lot worse than anyone thought they would be. The Skins next three games are against Tampa, Carolina and Kansas City. Combined record: 0-9. Each of those teams, along with Cleveland and St. Louis, could make a case of being the worst in the NFL right now. Of course to go 3-2 (and possibly 4-2), the Redskins would actually have to show up against inferior opponents. Which we know they won’t do. I don’t care if they win each game by a point, but just win the damn games. These are absolutely lousy teams. As embarrassing as the Detroit loss is (And many Redskins like to point out that the Lions should be better this season than last and the loss isn’t that embarrassing in the big picture. I agree to some extent. Detroit will probably win three or four games, and at the end of the season, that loss won’t look any worse than the losses last season to St. Louis and Cincinnati. Still, it’s no excuse. The Skins should have won that game handedly.), it’s just one loss. All it does is it eliminates some wiggle room for the Redskins in the second half of the season. They just have to win a game like Carolina to make up for it. It’s too early to be a season-crushing defeat. Only if the Skins allow it to ruin their season will the loss to Detroit actually ruin their season.

Just like the last two weeks, it’s the same problems that continue to plague the Redskins. Jim Zorn refuses to commit to the run. I’m not sure why. Clinton Portis had a rough first half (-2 yards), but that’s mostly because he only carried the ball four times. Four times! Against a terrible run defense! Moreover, the real problem continues to be the defense. Statistically, the defense is in the top half of the league in most categories. However, there is one category that proves the point I’ve been trying to make the last two weeks. The Redskins defense is dead last in the NFL on 3rd down. Dead last. Worse than Detroit. Worse than Tampa Bay. Worse than Cleveland. They allow opponents to convert 51% of their 3rd downs. The defense bends rather than breaks, but they simply cannot get off the field.

Why is that? Well, I’m glad you asked. Just go back over my last two game previews. The Redskins refuse to blitz. More specifically, Greg Blache refuses to blitz. The Redskins are now blitzing slightly less than 18% of the time on passing plays (which is actually up compared to the last two weeks). The NFL average is usually somewhere around 33-37%. This is why the Lions, quarterbacked by a rookie who had 1 TD and 5 INT in his first two games, were able to go on scoring drives of 99, 74, 86 and 85 yards.

It really boggles the mind that Blache is not only allowed to do this, but no one in the media is calling him out on it. In fact, it’s Washington’s defense that is praised while Washington’s offense is thrown under the bus. I really think the offense is close to clicking; they’ve just been a hair off here and there in the first three weeks. But the defense is nowhere close. The rumor is that Blache has no confidence in his secondary (More fuel has been added to that fire this week with the benching of Chris Horton. Horton has played tremendously well, had one bad play last week, and will now be sitting on the bench watching Reed Doughty play. I don’t understand that one. Maybe Horton is the scapegoat for his costly pass interference call. But give me a safety that makes the right play 98% of the time over a guy like Doughty who is strictly average). Since Blache has no confidence in his secondary, he drops linebackers and ends back into coverage to compensate. I don’t think the Skins secondary is other-worldly, but they are still a good unit. I simply think Blache is compensating for his lack of play-calling or play-designing ability. Either way, the proof is in the pudding. The Redskins allowed Detroit to go 9/11 on 3rd down in the first half last week. I don’t care if it’s New England or New Orleans or the ’88 49ers. No NFL team should be able to go 9/11 on 3rd down over the course of a half. Certainly not the 2009 Detroit Lions. I’m sick and tired of watching other teams convert 3rd-and-5, 3rd-and-6, 3rd-and-10, etc…

Furthermore, Blache had the perfect opportunity in the first three games to pressure the quarterback. It’s not like he’s playing a quarterback like Donovan McNabb or Drew Brees that have mobility and can beat you outside the pocket. He played Eli “Big Stiff” Manning, Marc “Even Bigger Stiff and Injury Risk” Bulger, and a rookie quarterback playing in his third NFL game. I don’t think the NFL could have created a better three game stretch for an aggressive defensive coordinator. Unfortunately, the Redskins are stuck with Blache. I never think firing coaches or coordinators in midseason helps. It’s usually a major impediment for a team to overcome (the three teams that fired their offensive coordinators right before the beginning of the season are 0-9 and look even worse than their records indicate). But if Zorn, or Vinny Cerrato or even Dan Snyder were to fire Blache today, I would rejoice. Defensively, things can’t get much worse.

As for their game against the Bucs, the opportunity will once again be there to blitz. It's as if the football Gods took pity on the Redskins, and are now letting them face a quarterback who has never started a game in the NFL. 2-year QB Josh Johnson will get the nod over Byron Leftwich (who torched the Skins last year while with the Steelers). Johnson is out of the University of San Diego, and was a guy I was hoping the Skins would draft. He set numerous school and I-AA records while with the Toreros. Unfortunately, that success has not yet translated to the NFL. Aside from the last drive of last week's blowout loss to the Giants, Johnson has not seen the field.

So what better way for the Skins to get healthy, at least defensively, then against a team that hasn't scored in almost five quarters and is facing a quarterback that has never taken a meaningful NFL snap? I can't think of any. Will Blache choose to bring pressure? His track record says no.

The Bucs would be the worst team in the league if not for Cleveland. They have a running game with Cadillac Williams, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham. After that, there's not much here to remind you of the Bucs teams from the late 90's and early 00's. We already know the passing game is a mess. The once fearsome defense has been completely torn apart in an effort to rebuild. The secondary, once a model of efficiency while playing the dreaded "Tampa 2", is now in shambles. Other than Cleveland and maybe Dallas, there is no team more susceptible to the deep ball than Tampa Bay.

On top of that, you won't find either Tony Dungy or Jon Gruden on the sideline. Instead it's 32-year-old Raheem Morris. Morris may be the least qualified coach in the NFL. He was an assistant defensive coach with the Buccaneers from 2003-05. He spent 2006 as defensive coordinator for Kansas State. Then he spent 2007 and 2008 as the defensive backs coach for the Bucs. Instead of getting some experience as a head coach at a college level, or as a coordinator at the NFL level, Morris somehow made the jump from Manhattan, KS to head coach of a professional football team. Not sure how that happened exactly. There is definitely a step missing somewhere. Either way, it's been a disaster so far. Morris was one of those coaches who fired his offensive coordinator weeks before the season started. Tampa kept close for 3 quarters against Dallas during Week 1, but were blown out by Buffalo and the Giants the last two weeks. This is not a good football team.

So we know how the Redskins should play to win this game. It's the same way they should have played the last two weeks. The only question that remains is if they will learn from their mistakes and finally start playing up to their strengths. Common logic says they will, recent history says they won't.

NFL Week 4: Houston Is Giving Me Problems

I continue to do well overall, but lousy against the spread. After an 11-4 week, I’m now 29-16 overall. But after an 8-7 against the spread, that record now stands at 23-22. Ugh.

SUNDAY

Baltimore Ravens (3-0) vs. New England Patriots (2-1)(-2)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
Ravens opponents combined record: 2-7. Let’s everyone settle down before anointing them as the best team in the NFL. They haven’t played New England, Indy, Minnesota or Pittsburgh yet. I don’t care how lousy the Steelers may be, they have the Ravens number.
Pick: Patriots

Tennessee Titans (0-3)(-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
1:00 p.m. Alltel Stadium
Only five teams that have started 0-3 have ever made the playoffs. With games against Indianapolis and New England coming up, it doesn’t look like Tennessee will be the sixth.
Pick: Jaguars

Oakland Raiders (1-2) vs. Houston Texans (1-2)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Reliant Stadium
“Every season, there is one team that I can never predict. I think the Texans are going to be that team this season.”

That’s what I said last week, and now I’m 0-3 when it comes to picking the Texans. I’d better get this one right.
Pick: Texans

Detroit Lions (1-2) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
Ugh, pass. Still too soon. I’ll deal with this later in the week.
Pick: Bears

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)(-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
As bad as Tampa has looked, they’ve at least played a brutal opening schedule and managed to keep two of their three games close. No one in the NFL has looked as bad as Cleveland, losing their games by 14, 21 and 31. Those point differentials are no flukes. The Browns have looked every bit as bad as those stats suggest. Look for those numbers to continue throughout the season.
Pick: Bengals

New York Giants (3-0)(-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs continue their long march to 0-5 (maybe 0-6…but that depends on that sixth team still existing by the time that game comes around). I picked KC to finish around .500 this season, but I did so assuming that Larry Johnson still had another 1,100 to 1,200 yards in his legs. He may not have 200 yards left in him.
Pick: Giants

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)(-10)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
I’ll give the Seahawks credit. They managed to hang around last week with Seneca Wallace as their quarterback. They would have won that game if not for some shody field goal kicking. Nonetheless, that was last week. They were at home for a 4:15 start. They were playing the Bears (who the jury is still very much out on). Much different story this week.
Pick: Colts

New York Jets (3-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-0)(-7)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
You know your offense is good when you put up 27 points on the road and the media says you “struggled”. So yeah, the Saints offense is very, very good. Futhermore, it appears that Sean Payton found a defense in the offseason. Holding Buffalo to only seven points in decent weather is very impressive.
Pick: Saints

Buffalo Bills (1-2)(-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)
4:05 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
I may not have gotten a lot right during my preseason predictions, but my prediction that Miami would come back down to Earth couldn’t have been more right on the money. Now the Dolphins have to deal with a pissed off Bills team that gets Marshawn Lynch back this week, and Miami’s starting quarterback is now Chad Henne. I’m confused as to why the line is so low.
Pick: Bills

St. Louis Rams (0-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)(-9.5)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
I’ll tell you what, I now believe the 49ers are a legit threat to win the NFC West. They proved more to me in their loss against Minnesota than in either of their wins this season. A win here, and the 49ers are already 3-0 in the division, and their toughest remaining division game is at home. Naturally, they’ll make me look stupid and barely squeak by the Rams.
Pick: 49ers, Rams cover

Dallas Cowboys (2-1)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (3-0)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
No one, and I mean NO ONE, is buy the Broncos 3-0 start. They had the miracle against Cincinnati, followed by two easy wins over Cleveland and Oakland. There’s a reason that the average Cowboys are favored on the road in one of the toughest stadiums to play in.
Pick: Cowboys

San Diego Chargers (2-1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)(-6)
8:20 p.m. Heinz Field
It’s desperation time for Pittsburgh. I knew the Steelers wouldn’t repeat as Super Bowl champs, but they look completely uninterested. There is no way the Steelers teams from the past would have blown an 11-point 4th quarter lead against Cincinnati.
Pick: Steelers

MONDAY

Green Bay Packers (2-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (3-0)(-3.5)
8:30 p.m. Metrodome
Lost in the frantic finish against San Francisco are a lot of truths the media loves to gloss over. First, Brett Favre’s “amazing” last second touchdown throw was in reality a terrible throw that his receiver bailed him out on. And secondly, if Favre didn’t play so poorly during the rest of the game, then the Vikings would never have needed a last second touchdown throw…they would have won the game handedly. Minnesota will get theirs eventually, but it won’t be against over-rated Green Bay.
Pick: Vikings

Bye Week: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia