Redskins at Eagles: Learning To Fly, But I Ain't Got Wings

Washington Redskins (3-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
1:00 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
In case you are keeping track, the Redskins are down to their 3rd string running back, their 3rd string right guard, their 3rd string left tackle, their 3rd string cornerback, their 2nd string tight end, their 2nd string right tackle and their 2nd string defensive tackle. Considering how much everyone loves Dallas and thinks they actually have a chance to win the Super Bowl (let alone get there), it’s pretty remarkable that the Redskins backups could go to Dallas and outplay the Cowboys until the final four minutes of the game. Some say that’s an example of the Redskins not giving up and continuing to fight. I like to say it’s example of the Cowboys not being very good, but let’s go with the first opinion for the sake of argument.

You can’t disagree with the notion that the Redskins are still trying. In fact, you could say that the current group of players on the field are trying harder than the starters that they replaced. But it’s still painful to watch. Last Sunday was just the latest kick in the groin. Watching the game, you knew the Redskins can’t move the ball offensively. You just knew it. Sure they aren’t going to go 3-and-out (it may surprise many that the Redskins are among the league leaders in fewest possessions that end in 3-and-outs). You knew the Redskins will pick up a first down or two. You’ll get that brief hope that this will be the drive they punch it into the endzone. But in the back of your mind you know that one of these backups is going to screw up somewhere. A penalty here, a missed block there. All of a sudden the drive stalls and despite putting up decent numbers, outplaying the opponent, and giving fans a reason to hope, the Redskins find themselves clinging to a six-point lead with a tired defense on the field.

The 3-7 Redskins, with basically an entire team of reserves, were better last Sunday than the 8-3 Cowboys. That tells me that there is talent on this team. There are decent coaches on this team. It tells me that despite the rough season, and despite the issues this organization has, this team does not need to be blown up and built from scratch. There are problems that need to be addressed in the offseason. As I pointed out a few weeks ago, it isn’t bleak for this team. At least not as bleak as all ESPN says it is. Depending on what happens with the NFL’s CBA, the Redskins can fix the majority of their problems in the next two offseasons (assuming that Vinny Cerrato is thrown into a deep lake with cement shoes). By 2011, the Redskins could potentially be right back near the top of the conference…and 2010 doesn’t need to be a “rebuilding year”. There are ways to EASILY accomplish that, and I will lay them out over the next few game previews.

As I said in my last post, I’m on vacation so I’m trying to keep it short. The Redskins meet the Eagles for the second time this season. Hopefully it goes much better than the first. The first Eagles game, combined with the Chiefs game, were easily the low points of this season. After losing to Kansas City, the Redskins were simply trying to drag themselves to the bye week. Unfortunately, they had to play Philadelphia first, and the Eagles took advantage. Despite the 10-point difference at the end of the contest, those who watched the first game know it wasn’t really that close. The Redskins were down 27-10 at halftime, and only a very late touchdown made the game respectable on the scoreboard. It was the ugliest loss for the Skins under Jim Zorn.

The Eagles no longer have the services of Brian Westbrook, who the Redskins knocked out in the first game. For most teams, losing a player the caliber of Westbrook would be a problem. But the Eagles don’t run the ball enough for Westbrook to much of a factor anyway. I used the joke earlier in the month, and I’ll use it again: LeSean McCoy can be as non-existent in the Eagles offense as Westbrook was. This is still a team that will pass the majority of the time. In other words, the Redskins know exactly what they are going to get from Philly. They’ve only been running the same offense for the entire decade.

I expect the effort will be there for the Redskins. I’m not sure they can fare any better than the first game. The offensive line has been playing better, so I would be surprised if the Eagles get to Jason Campbell six times. However, Carlos Rogers will probably have to start, which means DeSean Jackson should have a field day again. Without a healthy Albert Haynesworth, Donovan McNabb should have all day to throw the ball. If he doesn’t burn the Skins with Jackson, he can still throw to Jermey Maclin, Jason Avant or effective tight end Brent Celek. The Redskins offense probably won’t be able to score more than 14 points, and I don’t see the defense holding the Eagles to less than 20. So it may be closer than the first game, but the overall result probably won’t be.

Maryland Basketball: Tryptophan? No, Trypto-fantastic!

#21/22 Maryland Terrapins (4-1) vs.
Wisconsin Badgers (3-1)
Lahania Civic Center - Lahania, HI
Maui Invitational

Well, that was a rude awakening. Not much to say about the loss to Cincinnati. The Bearcats were the better team from the 10-minute mark onward. The Terps couldn’t figure out their early zone. They couldn’t grab a rebound (out-rebounded 47-33 on the game…not surprising, but alarming for how easy it was for Cincy). The press wasn’t working, and I said as much a few minutes into the game. I’m curious as to why Maryland kept running it in the second half after see how much of a failure it was in the first. Whatever the case may be, Maryland has plenty to work on in the next couple of weeks.

I’m going to move on quickly to the Wisconsin because the Terps have to move on quickly as well. Also, I’m going on my annual Thanksgiving getaway, so this edition is going to be condensed with my weekly NFL picks to make things easy on me. So that brings me to the fourth annual tryptophan edition. Wisconsin, in many ways, is like Cincinnati. They are balanced and somewhat deep. The guards handle the ball real well and are unlikely to be affected by Maryland’s pressure. The big men don’t wander away from the interior on either side of the ball. They are a team that will throw both man-to-man and zones at the Terps. What the Badgers don’t have is the athleticism of Cincinnati. They also have no interest in speeding the game up. Maryland’s half-court offense, which to this point has been below average on the season, is going to have to show up.

For years I’ve been making fun of Bo Ryan and Wisconsin. They routinely set the game of college basketball back 30 years. There have been several times in the last few seasons where they’ll give up less than 50 points and still lose. However, as much as I poke fun at Wisconsin, their methods are effective for winning games. Ryan is now entering his 9th season in Madison, and the Badgers have made the NCAA tournament in each of his previous eight years. The Badgers may not be pretty to watch. Bo Ryan certainly is frightening to look at. But they get the job done.

Trevon Hughes is the guy to watch for the Badgers. He’s not much of a stat stuffer (on a team that averages 64 points a game, it’s hard to be one), but his 14 points per game on this team warrants attention. Offensively, Wisconsin is methodical. Don’t look for many shots before 20 seconds run off the shot clock. They only shoot 25% from long range. I know it’s early in the year, but don’t expect that stat to get much better. Like the Bearcats, they will attack the rim and get a healthy chunk of their points off second chances.

I like Maryland in this one, because Wisconsin might as well be a poor man’s Cincinnati. Similar style, lesser players. If Maryland gets around the 60-point margin, you gotta like their chances. Wisconsin already has problems scoring, and now they are playing their third straight game 5,000 miles from home. Tired legs will sink an already questionable offense. The question is whether or not Maryland can compete with the Badgers inside. I think they can, and I’m assuming that at least one of the Terps five guards will be able to hit shots consistently in this one. They were all off last night, so I think they are due for a good game. Terps in an ugly one. Hopefully the cameras stay off of Bo so I don’t have to see his eyes popping out of his skull during the entire game.

Maryland 63
Wisconsin 55


Now time for the NFL picks. No summaries this week, just the picks ‘mam. Be back with the Redskins write-up in a couple of days. I was 10-5 overall and 8-7 against the spread (with a little help from the Falcons and 49ers). The records now look like this:

Overall: 104-46 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 84-64-2

Thursday
(home teams in bold)
Green Bay (6-4)(-10.5) over Detroit (2-8)
Dallas (7-3)(-13.5) over Oakland (3-7)
New York Giants (6-4)(-6.5) over Denver (6-4)

Sunday
Houston (5-5) over Indianapolis (10-0)(-4) … call me crazy!!!!
Cincinnati (7-3)(-14) over Cleveland (1-9)
Minnesota (9-1)(-10) over Chicago (4-6)
Miami (5-5)(-3) over Buffalo (3-7)
Arizona (7-3) over Tennessee (4-6)(-2.5)
Seattle (3-7)(-3) over St. Louis (1-9)
Atlanta (5-5)(-11.5) over Tampa Bay (1-9)
Carolina (4-6) over New York Jets (4-6)(-3)
San Francisco (4-6)(-3) over Jacksonville (6-4)
San Diego (7-3)(-13.5) over Kansas City (3-7), Chiefs cover
Pittsburgh (6-4) over Baltimore (5-5)(-2.5)

Monday
New Orleans (10-0)(-3) over New England (7-3)

Have a good holiday everyone!

Maryland Basketball: All We Are Saying, Is Give Vasquez A Lance

#21/22 Maryland Terrapins (4-0) vs.
Cincinnati Bearcats (3-0)
Lahania Civic Center - Lahania, HI
Maui Invitational - 2nd Round

We’ll keep it real quick because I’ve got to do another game write up tomorrow and then NFL picks throughout the week and of course the riveting Redskins preview. We’ll follow that up with another riveting Maryland preview before they go to Indiana and we’ll go through NFL process all over again. You get the idea. What will lack in quality will be made for in quantity.

Anyway, Maryland basketball. The Terps are 4-0 and have played well against a host of nobodies. They’ve had seven halves of pretty good basketball and one mediocre first half against Chaminade. Hopefully we can attribute that to jetlag. I think we’ve learned three things about Maryland so far. Here there are in order of importance.

1) Dave Neal does not play here anymore. Maryland no longer has a weak frontcourt, and this team is as balanced as I expected them to be. Both Jordan Williams and James Padgett have added some much needed muscle to the post position. Not only that, but you can see how it’s affecting the entire team. Sean Mosley, Greivis Vasquez and the guards are attempting passes to the big men that they would never have tried last year because they knew Neal couldn’t convert. Williams and Padgett still have plenty of room to grow, especially on the offensive end. But they’re grabbing their rebounds and playing solid defense. They are allowing Landon Milbourne to play his game and not forcing him to hang around the basket every possession. Milbourne has had a terrific start to the season as a result. You can see the affect the better post players have had on the entire team. And they’re only going to get better. It’s great that they have been thrown into the fire in the pre-conference season. When Dino Gregory returns on December 12th, and the Terps enter conference play, the frontcourt will be even more of a force. Gregory’s suspension, as I said a few weeks ago, may have been a blessing in disguise.

2) Greivis Vasquez could be the undoing of this team. The reports were out there after Vasquez attended the pre-draft camps in the spring. He was a NBA-caliber player, but most scouts felt he had to work on his shot to become a sure-fire first round pick. So what has he done so far? He’s jacked up a variety of jump shots and it hasn’t been pretty. Vasquez is best when he goes inside out. He needs to attack the basket early in the game, get in the flow, then work outside and hit three’s. He is not a guy who is going to come out of the tunnel and light it up behind the arc. For the betterment of this team, and not for himself, Vasquez must get back to what he did best last winter. If he continues to attempt jump shots and play a like a regular guard, he is not only going to hurt his draft status, he is going to sink this team. John Gilchrist already did such a thing when he returned for his junior year. Not saying this season will turn out exactly like 2004-05, but it’s going down a similar path. Something to certainly keep an eye on going forward.

3) Sean Mosley has emerged as the third scoring option. We knew that Vasquez (if he gets his head right) and Milbourne would score. But we didn’t know who would step up and help them. Eric Hayes remains a perimeter player. Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker appear to be great complimentary players at this point. As I said above, the big men are impressive so far, but too young to be counted on when ACC season starts. Mosley has shown he has a game that mirror’s Vasquez. He can score both inside and out. He can slash to the hoop. He can get open without the ball (Dook guards take note). Most importantly, he can play defense, so he’ll get plenty of playing time. He reminds me of a mix between Gilchrist and Byron Mouton. He’s the scrappy, energy player that every team needs. But he’s a scrappy, energy player that can score.

So Maryland moves on in the Maui Invitational and receives their first real test of the season. Waiting for them on the winners’ side of the bracket is Cincinnati and our old friend Lance Stephenson. For those not familiar with the Stephenson saga, here is a quick refresher. Stevenson was a Top 10 recruit in the 2009 freshman class. First he was going to Kansas. Then Maryland. Then Kansas again. Then Kansas pulled out of the running. Then it was Maryland. Then Kansas re-entered the picture. Then Arizona joined in. But the longer it took for Stephenson to decide where he was going, the more schools stopped recruiting him. His talent wasn’t really questioned, but there were a lot of other factors around him. He may have had contact with agents. He may have been paid to endorse a website. He may not have been academically eligible. He had attitude problems and ran with the wrong crowd. By the spring signing period, most of the schools that had wanted him for years stopped recruiting him. Including Maryland. Had Stephenson decided last December or January to come to Maryland, he’d be wearing red and gold today. Because he waited until April, Gary Williams had decided he’d seen enough. Williams, like the other coaches of major programs, stopped recruiting him. Through attrition, Stephenson was forced to attend Cincinnati.

So far, he has helped the Bearcats field a typical Bearcat team. They are physical. They are big. They rebound well. The term “athletic” will probably be used to describe Cincinnati at least 20 times tonight by the broadcasters. But they are also a selfish team. There is no real cohesiveness. The defense can be lacking at times or at all times. This is the way Cincinnati played when Bob Huggins was there and they were in Conference USA. They haven’t really changed much since he left for Alcoholics Anonymous, Kansas State and West Virginia.

Cincinnati had a rather easy time with Vanderbilt in the first round. It helped that A.J. Ogilvy was called for two bogus fouls in the first few minutes and that the Bearcats didn’t have to worry about him in the first half. But it was impressive nonetheless. Stephenson looked good, but wasn’t anything special. He’ll make some great individual plays here and there, but most of the time, he’s going to stand around the perimeter while trying to play “And 1” basketball. The two players that really impressed me yesterday were Yancy Gates and Rashad Bishop. Gates reminds me a lot of Obinna Ekezie. He is always around the basket on both sides of the ball. He challenges every shot. He challenges for every rebound. He’s going to be a tough test for both Jordan Williams and Padgett tonight. Bishop is an all around good player. He can do a little of everything, and he’s pretty quick too. At 6’6”, he’s a matchup problem for most teams. Combine those two with Stephenson, returning senior Deonta Vaughn and a rotation that goes a legitimate 9-deep, and it makes a very underrated basketball team. It’s a team that I predicted to be around 5th or 6th in the Big East (most had them a few positions lower).

Maryland has to be fundamentally sound in the rebounding game tonight. Any loose balls near the basket are going to go Cincinnati’s way. If the Terps struggle to corral rebounds, the Bearcats will take advantage. Maryland will have to use their speed, and their superior backcourt to win this game. The guards will have to hit open looks. Because Vasquez and Milbourne really don’t present matchup problems to a team that’s pretty big and somewhat fast, Eric Hayes and Adrian Bowie will be key in this one. It should be an interesting test for Maryland. They aren’t going to see a lot of Cincinnati type teams on their schedule. This is the type of game Maryland has won the past few seasons (see the Michigan State game from last year). It’s going to be close, it’s going to be ugly. Maryland should pull out a narrow win if they hit their threes and hit the glass.

Maryland 71
Cincinnati 67

Redskins at Cowboys: New Stadium, Same Old Team

Washington Redskins (3-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
1:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Hey, a win! How about that sports fans! Makes it a little easier to write about the Redskins. They’re still bad, but they aren’t 2-7 bad. I guess there’s a difference. I don’t know. Anyway, the Redskins won the game by doing exactly what they should have been doing since Week 1…RUNNING THE FOOTBALL. Everyone knew coming into the season that the strength of the offense was the run game. Despite what you may or may not have thought of Jason Campbell back in August, you’d be crazy to think that he was the offense’s best player. It made even more sense to run the ball after the entire offensive line got hurt or proved they didn’t belong in the NFL.

Many have said that the Redskins simply couldn’t run behind that line. Since that time, the Redskins have proven two things. First, they certainly can’t throw the ball behind that line. And second, turns out they can run behind a makeshift offensive line. It may not always be pretty. There may be many drives where the run game goes nowhere. They still can’t run a stretch play to save their lives (which is probably for the best since hopefully that play will disappear from the playbook). But they can run the ball, they can move the ball downfield, and they can drive and score against a pretty good defense. There are only a handful of defenses that are better than Denver’s at this point. So there is no reason the Redskins can’t do that against the majority of teams.

Even in a win – double-digit win no less – there is still a bonehead of the week award to hand out. Carlos Rogers, come on down. If you missed his mistake, and it happened so early in the game there’s a great chance you did, here’s the recap. Denver has a 3rd-and-12 at the Redskins 40. Rogers is guarding Brandon Marshall. He gives Marshall a 10-yard cushion. While this kind of cushion always drives me nuts (it opens you to slant patterns and long runs, which has been a Broncos staple this season), I could understand it given the 3rd-and-long situation. The ball is snapped, and Rogers instantly backpedals another 5 yards. Which means he’s at the Redskins 25-yard line. Despite the 15-yard cushion, Rogers is not only completely fooled by a half-assed double move (one that Marshall threw at him thinking there was probably no chance he’d be tricked by it), he was beaten by a good 10-15 yards on the play. He was beaten so badly, I thought he must have pulled his hamstring or calf muscle. Turns out he was just embarrassed by a double move that probably wouldn’t have fooled 99% of corners in the league. This mistake comes a few weeks after getting burned by Desean Jackson in a nearly identical situation (3rd-and-long, ball near midfield, large cushion, etc…).

Furthermore, this is the same Brandon Marshall who made the Pro Bowl last season. The same guy that the Redskins assuredly game-planned for the entire week leading up to Sunday. So it’s not as if it was any surprise the Broncos would try to go to him in key situations. Getting burned by Marshall isn’t the problem; it was how he got burned. Compounded with an identical mistake a few weeks ago, the errors become unforgivable.

So Jim Zorn does what most rational coaches would do. He benches Rogers. Now Rogers, like most athletes, was and should have been frustrated. It’s certainly not easily to be embarrassed like that, then benched, in front of 85,000 people and several thousand more watching on TV. But to go on a rant following the game, a game which his team won, is completely foolish and selfish. Saying that he’s probably going to walk after the season because he’s a free agent…well Carlos, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. I’m not sure how many teams are going to be clamoring to sign a cornerback who has proven over and over again that he can’t defend the deep ball. The Redskins defense surrendered seven points in the four plays that Rogers was on the field for. In the ensuing four quarters, the Redskins defense only allowed ten. There aren’t going to be too many Redskins fans or players that will miss you. Of all the problems the Redskins could be facing this offseason, re-signing Carlos Rogers is somewhere near the bottom of the list.

What have I forgotten? Oh, the Cowboys! Silly me. The Skins get their first look at Jerry Jones’ $1 billion mistake of a stadium and the $100 million mistake on the field. The Cowboys check in at 6-3 and they are in first place in the NFC East. But the weather is getting colder, so this is usually where the Cowboys season starts taking a nose dive. Dallas has not had a winning record in December since 1996, and with their schedule this season (at Giants, Chargers, at Saints, at Redskins, Eagles), it doesn’t look like 2009 will be the year. That’s at least three more losses in that stretch. They already began the process of tanking when they went to Green Bay last week and allowed the Packers, the same Packers team that allowed the Buccaneers to score 38 a week before, to hold them scoreless for the first 59 minutes and 30 seconds of the game. Given their schedule, their history, and their annual chemistry problems, the Cowboys will not be any better than 10-6. 9-7 may be more likely. They certainly aren’t winning in the Meadowlands or in New Orleans. They certainly aren’t winning both home games against San Diego and Philly. That leaves two games against the Redskins and the Thanksgiving game against Oakland. Chances are the Redskins split with them. The Skins have done very well against this team during the past five seasons, especially in Dallas. Again, I’m going to stick with my 9-7 prediction.

The Cowboys of 2009 have many of the same problems that the Cowboys of 2008 did. Tony Romo is all over the map, and it isn’t even December yet. You never know if you are getting four touchdowns, four interceptions, or both out of him when he steps on the field. He’s still feuding with a receiver, except it’s Roy Williams this season instead of Terrell Owens. The running game remains the team’s strength, but the Cowboys often ignore it. Jason Witten remains the best target to throw to, but he’s usually Romo’s third choice on most progressions. The offensive line is starting to get beat up. The defensive front seven is still very good, but the secondary is one of the worst in the league. Find a way to keep DeMarcus Ware off your quarterback, and the defense is very vulnerable. Finally, Wade Phillips is still their coach. He looks as clueless as always, and he continues to waste what is supposedly a talented roster. This is the same team that missed the playoffs last season. No better, no worse.


Just because the Cowboys are not as good as their record indicates, that doesn’t mean the Redskins win will. Clinton Portis is a no-go again, but it didn’t seem to affect the team last week. Even more damaging may be the loss of Albert Haynesworth. There are still many Redskins fans that don’t see the impact he’s making. He’s not putting up the numbers, but there’s a reason that Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo have combined for 16 sacks this season. In fact, the Redskins have 24 sacks through nine games. They had 24 sacks all of last season. Haynesworth is taking up two to three blockers a play and allowing the rest of the line to get the stats. He’s listed as questionable, but it looks as if he will not play. Without him, the Skins won’t be able to pressure Romo. Without pressure, even Romo will manage to have a decent day. I’m not saying that Romo goes off for one of those four touchdown performances, but he’ll probably put enough points on the board to keep the Skins at bay. But who knows, Washington has managed to play Dallas tough the last few years in Irving, including a rather dominating perfomance last season in the old hole-in-the-roof stadium. Regardless, here’s hoping for a win over these pricks.

NFL Week 11: Egomaniacal

After a lackluster Week 9, Week 10 went much, much better. I was 11-3 overall and 9-5 against the spread. Here we go for Week 11 and here are the season records:

Overall: 94-41 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 76-57-2

THURSDAY

Miami Dolphins (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-5)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Please tell me the point of these Thursday games. Last week we had two teams at or below .500. This week we have two teams a game below .500. What can be accomplished by putting these teams in primetime? I’ll go with the Panthers since the Dolphins are without their starting running back/quarterback/wide receiver/lead Wildcat-er/waterboy Ronnie Brown.
Pick: Panthers

SUNDAY

Cleveland Browns (1-8) vs. Detroit Lions (1-8)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
What, were these two teams unavailable for Thursday night?
Pick: Lions

Buffalo Bills (3-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
If you had Dick Jauron as the first fired coach of the year, time to cash in. I think he was at least giving 3-1 odds at the beginning of the season. Maybe giving him that extension midway through last season wasn’t such a great idea.
Pick: Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)(-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I wouldn’t count the Steelers out in the AFC just yet. It looks like it will be a massive uphill struggle to get to the top of the division (with the Bengals owning the tiebreaker and three automatic wins the next few weeks). But this is still a team that can lay low, get healthy, and win on the road in January. In summary, don’t count them out.
Pick: Steelers

Indianapolis Colts (9-0)(-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
The Colts giving one measly point to a team that hasn’t played well since late September? I mean sure, I could use the money. The Colts will lose, and I know where. But it won’t be in Baltimore to a team that they’ve owned in recent seasons. By the way, how bad do the Ravens look for letting Matt Stover walk away? Sure the guy couldn’t kick field goal over 45 yards. But the guy they got to replace him couldn’t hit from 30. On a scale of one-to-ten, odds that Stover burns his former team in this game are about a 23.
Pick: Colts

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) vs. New York Giants (5-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Facing a team that doesn’t have its two best running backs and has been struggling for several weeks, you’d figure the Giants would be able to win this one, right? I’m not convinced.
Pick: Giants, Falcons cover

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Funny what a win against the overrated Cowboys can do to a spread. Last week the Packers were 3-point underdogs at home. This week it’s a full 10-point reversal. This is still the same team that lost to Tampa Bay two weeks ago.
Pick: Packers, 49ers cover

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-1)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
The Seahawks were another team that lost their running back on Fantasy Football’s Black Sunday. Unlike the other teams, losing Julius Jones could help the Seahawks in the long run. Jones is not the long term answer at running back for the Seahawks, but Justin Forsett has the potential to be a staple in their backfield. May be a blessing in disguise in the long run.
Pick: Vikings

New Orleans Saints (9-0)(-11.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
There was a real interesting article in Sports Illustrated a couple of week ago on the Bucs. It talked about the complete strip down of the franchise in order to rebuild. It was as close to a MLB fire sale (ala the Marlins) as you will ever see in the NFL. The only problem is they cut most of the players instead of trading them for picks or prospects. Also, they decided to hire Raheem Morris instead of an actual coach (see Buccaneers at Redskins post). In theory, it was a probably a good idea to get the rebuilding out of the way and go from one of the oldest teams to one of the youngest teams practically overnight. On paper, it’s not playing out that well.
Pick: Saints

Arizona Cardinals (6-3)(-8.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-8)
4:05 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Again, the Cardinals are just one win and one 49ers loss from pretty much wrapping up the NFL's worst division. This could be the week.
Pick: Cardinals

New York Jets (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (6-3)(-10.5)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
How ‘bout this coaching matchup, huh? You got one coach crying, whining, saying he’s trying to act like a man and his team has lost five of their last six. He also happens to coach in the New York media market, where these episodes tend to be blown out of proportion. And Rex Ryan had the easier week. Bill Belichick showed how much his ego has grown over the past decade by making that absolutely ridiculous decision that cost his team the game against the Colts. There have been a lot of people coming to his defense, saying that hindsight is 20/20, blah blah blah. Except that I said at the time, before the failed 4th down play was even snapped, that this was the worst possible decision he could make. I had no hindsight. No clue that his team wouldn’t convert. No clue that Peyton Manning would finish off the Pats (although I think most logical people would have guessed that would be the outcome). It was a flat out terrible decision. Period. End of story. There’s no defending it. 99.9% of coaches punt the ball, even if they are facing Manning. Let’s see, would I rather give Manning the ball at my own 30, or his own 30? Would I rather force Manning to drive 30 yards or 70? There are 10-year-olds who could make that decision better than Belichick did.
Pick: Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)(-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-7)
4:15 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Looks like the Bengals are really going to win this division. Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit on the upcoming schedule will make sure of that.
Pick: Bengals

San Diego Chargers (6-3)(-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (6-3)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
Even though it took longer than I expected, that sound you hear is Denver and Josh “Little Belichick” McDaniels crashing back to Earth. Now the Broncos don’t even have Kyle Orton, instead having to start Chris Simms with the division on the line. The only coach who could screw this one up is Norv Turner…uh oh.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-5)
8:20 p.m. Soldier Field
I’ll play a hunch and say that Jay Cutler bounces back, Donovan McNabb plays like Cutler did last week, and Andy Reid finds his butt over a very large Bunsen burner.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (3-6) vs. Houston Texans (5-4)(-4.5)
8:30 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Lost in all the Chris Johnson hoopla the last few weeks, is the fact that the Titans are only 3-6, they’ve beaten several average or below average teams, and their quarterback is still Vince Young. I’ll take my chances with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson in a shootout.
Pick: Texans

Broncos at Redskins: If You Rebuild It, They Will Come

Denver Broncos (6-2) vs. Washington Redskins (2-6)
1:00 p.m. FedEx Field
Again, it’s really hard to keep coming up with topics about a 2-6 football team. Not only that, but the 2-6 football team is basically playing with half their lineup out, so it’s hard to complain about the performance of backups when you know they have no chance to succeed in the first place. Can I gain anything by complaining about D’Anthony Batiste or Mike Williams or Fred Davis? Is it even an interesting read? The answer is no. I could complain about the moron who put this roster together (Vinny Cerrato), but I’ve done enough of that over the last two months. There isn’t much more to say. I could complain about Greg Blache again! That’s always fun. Wait…where are you going? Come back!

The truth is the moment Chris Samuels went down, the season was over. You could see it in the way the offense was playing the entire game against Carolina. They didn’t go downfield once. They didn’t try any counters and I believe they attempted only 2 draw or delay runs. It was as basic an offense as you could create, and they still had trouble keeping Jason Campbell upright and opening up rushing lanes. In the four games before that, even though the offense looked terrible, at least they were still trying to go downfield. They were still trying to open up the playbook. There was a feeling that the offense was just one good game, or even one good half, away from clicking. But once Samuels got hurt, Jim Zorn knew there was really nothing he could do. His offense was tied to his line being healthy. Once they started going down like flies, Zorn knew he was linked to a roster that was ill-equipped to handle injury.

So that’s where we are. If there’s one thing I’ve said consistently on this site for the past five years, it’s that in order to have a successful offense in the NFL, you have to have a solid offensive line. An average quarterback can win behind a great offensive line, but a great quarterback cannot win behind an average offensive line. That’s why I’ve sat here and criticized the Lions before it became the cool thing to do. Same with the Browns and Raiders. There’s no point in drafting a quarterback when there is no one to block for him. You cannot build your team from the skill positions inward. You have to, HAVE TO, build it from the offensive line outward. This isn’t popular among fans, and it isn’t popular among owners because offensive linemen don’t sell jerseys, but it’s the only responsible way to build an offense. The Redskins starting offensive line was among the top half in the league. However, the Redskins had no Plan B in case of injuries. Now they are stuck with two decent linemen (Casey Rabach and Derrick Dockery) and a bunch of castoffs and undrafted rookies.

Unless the salary cap goes away – and there’s a very good chance that might happen – this problem isn’t going to get any better. I can almost guarantee that the Redskins are going to go after a quarterback before they start rebuilding their line. There’s no point in talking about drafting Jake Locker, Sam Bradford or (God help us) Jimmy Clausen if there is no one to block for them. They will become the next David Carr. Even worse is the fact that rookie quarterbacks have had success in the past couple of seasons. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco made the playoffs last season. Matt Sanchez has at least looked decent this year. Dan Snyder is going to see that and say “Hey, if it worked for those three teams, why couldn’t it work for us.” The real reason that those teams succeeded is because they had an offensive line in place for that young quarterback. The Jets and Falcons had spent the two previous drafts rebuilding their lines from scratch. The Ravens had been circulating in new blood, one position at a time, on their offensive line for even longer. That’s why those quarterbacks have been successful. Jason Campbell would probably look good behind those lines.

Here’s what the Redskins need to do. I’ll keep it brief because I’ll probably touch on it in more detail in later posts. They need to sign Campbell to a 1-year deal. It shouldn’t be hard, I don’t think many teams are going to try to sign him after they year he’s had. With the first round pick, you draft a franchise tackle. In free agency, sign either a tackle or guard. If there’s no salary cap, sign both. That takes care of two of the three glaring holes on the line. Use another high pick to draft a running back, because Clinton Portis is on his last legs and Ladell Betts is not capable of carrying the load for 16 games. The rest of the picks must be used for depth on the line. Then, if Campbell still can’t do anything, you draft a quarterback the following season and let Campbell walk. The defense will still be loaded. Chris Cooley will still be at the height of his game. The receiver situation at that point may be sketchy, but if that’s the weakness of the team, so be it. In two seasons, you’ve rebuilt the team AND allowed them to be moderately successful next year as well. In essence, you’ve rebuilt the line without giving up the 2010-11 season in the process.

Now to this game. The Broncos haven’t impressed me this season, with the exception of their win over New England. Their 6-2 record has some decent wins behind it, but it also has the Browns and Raiders in there, and a miracle win against Cincinnati. The key for Denver was the hot start. If Denver had started 2-2, who knows how long the players would have put up with Josh McDaniels. He almost had a team-wide revolt on his hands back in July and August. The hot start quieted the critics both outside and inside the locker room.

In the last couple of games, we’ve seen the Denver I thought we’d see all season. We’ve seen a Denver that couldn’t keep its offense on the field and couldn’t keep the ball away from the other team. They’ve lost the last two games by a combined score of 58-17, and that score is not inflated. Sure, losing to Pittsburgh is nothing to sneeze at. But getting dominated against an average Baltimore team could be cause for alarm.

The last couple of weeks have shown us that Kyle Orton can’t throw the ball more than ten yards from the line of scrimmage. All teams have to do is crowd the line and make sure tackles on bubble screens to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Correll Buckhalter has never been a complete back, Knoshown Moreno is a rookie who needs another year to grow, and the offensive line isn’t good enough to open up holes like they did back in the earlier part of the decade. If the defense can tackle, this offense isn’t scary at all. Not with Orton at quarterback.

Defensively, the Broncos are much better than I thought they’d be. This is a front seven that has grown up quickly. Specifically, Elvis Dumervil has become a force. He has 10.5 sacks on the season, and a few other tackles for losses. D.J. Williams and Andra Davis have also contributed significantly. The real key, at least in my opinion, has been the addition of Brian Dawkins. I said it in the preseason. I said it a few weeks ago. The Eagles made a completely moronic decision to allow Dawkins to leave. It made no sense. Sure, he’s getting up there in years. But it was clear that he was still near the top of his game in Philly, and he was a team leader. He has become a team leader on Denver and his level of play hasn’t seen a decrease. He is second on the team in total tackles and solo tackles. He’s also second in passes deflected. More importantly, he has forced the younger players to step up, and they’ve responded.

I’m going to go out on a limb now and go on record as saying the Broncos are NOT going to win their division. San Diego is going to make their annual charge, and they will beat the Broncos in Denver last season. The Broncos only have about three winnable games remaining on their schedule, and I’m not sure a 9-7 record will be good enough to get them in the playoffs. This is a must win for them. Not only do they need to stop their slide, they need to grab a win on the East Coast before returning home for San Diego and New York. Otherwise, they’ll be facing the Chargers next week with a one game or no game lead in the division. The Redskins have the defense to frustrate Orton, but certainly don’t have the offense to score on the Broncos D. I doubt either team breaks 20 points, and the Skins may actually have a shot of pulling out a victory.

NFL Week 10: Deciding Divisions

A 7-5 overall record and a 6-6 record against the spread in Week 9 left the year long tallies looking like this:

Overall: 83-38 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 67-52-2

THURSDAY

Chicago Bears (4-4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-5)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Candlestick Park
While the Bears look attractive in this one on paper, you have to remember that they’re coming off an embarrassing home loss in which they only really showed up for the 4th quarter. And even though both teams have the short week, the Bears are the ones that have to travel halfway across the country. Plus, I’m sure Mike Singletary has a little something special planned for his old team. The three point spread doesn’t seem so attractive now.
Pick: 49ers

SUNDAY

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) vs. New York Jets (4-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
As I’ve been saying all year, there is nothing about the Jets that is really impressive. This is a .500 team at best, and if it wasn’t for the fact that they play in the New York area, no one would pay attention to this team.
Pick: Jets, Jaguars cover

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Heinz Field
I’ve been thoroughly impressed each time I’ve watched the Bengals this season. This is a team that should make the playoffs. I just don’t think that they are ready to go into Pittsburgh with the division on the line and win. They aren’t ready for that yet.
Pick: Steelers

Buffalo Bills (3-5) vs. Tennessee Titans (2-6)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. LP Field
The over/under for Chris Johnson rushing yards has to be something near 150 for this game. If you are going against Johnson in fantasy this week, I feel for you.
Pick: Titans

Detroit Lions (1-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)(-16)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Poor Detroit. They have to come back from the West Coast to play at Minnesota following the Vikings bye week. Just in case it wasn’t tough enough being the Lions.
Pick: Vikings

New Orleans Saints (8-0)(-13.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-7)
1:00 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Between the Saints and the Vikings, I don’t think anyone should be eliminated from a survivor pool this weekend.
Pick: Saints

Atlanta Falcons (5-3)(-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-5)
1:00 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
I can’t figure out the 1.5 line in this one. The Panthers have beaten only one decent team all season. Sure they gave the Saints a good half of football, but they were blown out in the 2nd half. Not sure how a Carolina defense that can’t stop the run (23rd in the NFL) is going to slow down Michael Turner.
Pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-5)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Land Shark Stadium
To the Tampa Bay Bucs: thank you. Thank you for beating the Packers so the really, really obnoxious Packers fan in my office can no longer be annoying for the rest of the season. “Oh, you want to make fun of the Redskins again? Well even the Redskins beat the Buccaneers. Suck on that.” What a prick.
Pick: Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-6)(-2.5)
4:05 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Well, we knew there would be two of these games, and that neither one would be that important. At least these two teams have lived up to those expectations.
Pick: Chiefs

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)(-8.5)
4:15 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
If the 49ers lose tonight, then this will be the last chance anyone in the NFC West has in preventing the Cardinals from winning that joke of a division. Let’s just say I don’t see the Seahawks preventing that from happening.
Pick: Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) vs. San Diego Chargers (5-3)(-2.5)
4:15 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
It looks as if the Chargers are going to win the AFC West by a game or so, get 10 or 11 wins, win a playoff game, lose in the 2nd round and once again save Norv Turner’s job. All that despite underachieving for the umpteenth consecutive season.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (6-2)(-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (4-4)
4:15 p.m. Lambeau Field
Again, as fun as it was to watch the Packers lose to Tampa, it would be real nice if Green Bay knocked the Cowboys down a few pegs as well.
Pick: Packers

New England Patriots (6-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
Despite their recent struggles, I can guarantee that Indy will put their foot to the pedal in this game. They’ve toyed around with San Francisco and Houston in the last couple of weeks, but they’ll definitely be up for this game, and they should be able to put the Patriots away quickly.
Pick: Colts

MONDAY

Baltimore Ravens (4-4)(-10.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-7)
8:30 p.m. Cleveland Browns Stadium
For the last few weeks, there have been great games on Monday night. It looks as if all good things come to an end. I’ll be tuning out, that’s for sure.
Pick: Ravens

Bye Week: Houston, New York Giants

College Basketball Preview, 2009-2010

Here we go, 2009-10 basketball season preview. I’ll take a look at the six power conferences, a few of the mid-majors I expect to make some noise, and we’ll wrap it all up with the Top 25. Teams with a * next to their names I’ve projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Maryland preview is below this post, but we’ll talk about the Terps more when they get to Maui.

ACC
Projected Standings

1. North Carolina*
2. Georgia Tech*
3. Duke*
4. Maryland*
5. Clemson*
6. Wake Forest*
7. Boston College
8. Miami
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Virginia
12. NC State

Notes: North Carolina still gets the nod because they are still immensely talented. Will they be as good as last season? Of course not. But they are the best team in the ACC. Georgia Tech was going to be good before they added freshman Derrick Favors to the mix. Paul Hewitt finally gets a team with the majority of decent players jumping to the NBA or Europe. Duke has questions in the backcourt AND major questions about it’s depth. It appears 2010-11 may be a potentially good year for them, but they’ll be also-rans this season. On the other hand, Maryland’s backcourt is great, but too many frontcourt issues remain to put them higher than 4th. Clemson returns Trevor Booker, and adds two terrific freshmen in Milton Jennings and Noel Johnson. However, too much experience was lost at the guard position. Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu should be ACC player of the year as long as the media morons don’t vote for Duke White Stiff. Teams 1-6 could really finish in several orders, but that’s clearly the top half of the conference. Boston College, Miami and Florida State lost Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton and Toney Douglas respectively. I have a feeling that BC may be better without Rice, but that remains to be seen. The Tony Bennett hiring was an awful move by Virginia. Not sure how he is going to be able to recruit in this area with his style of play. And believe it or not, NC State may actually be worse than last season. Sidney Lowe has some interesting players coming in next year, but I doubt he’ll be around to coach them.

Big East
Projected Standings

1. Villanova*
2. Connecticut*
3. West Virginia*
4. Louisville*
5. Notre Dame*
6. Cincinnati*
7. Georgetown*
8. Syracuse
9. Pittsburgh
10. Marquette
11. Seton Hall
12. Providence
13. St. John’s
14. South Florida
15. Rutgers
16. DePaul

Notes: The Big East prepares to take three giant steps backwards this season (even though they didn’t place a team in the finals last year), as there are only three to four teams to really watch this season. Villanova is legit. Three top scorers return along with a very highly ranked recruiting class. Of course, having Scottie Reynolds doesn’t hurt. Getting Jerome Dyson healthy will be the key for UConn, despite losing a lot. They just reload under that criminal Jim Calhoun. Bob Huggins has a history of overachieving with bad rosters (like last season), but underachieving with good ones (ie: his entire career at Cincinnati). He may have the best team in this conference, but they won’t play like it. Louisville could be the 2nd place team in this conference, but there have been an awful lot of distractions (Pitino extortion case, several players getting arrested, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams to the NBA). Luke Harangody will help Notre Dame bounce back. Cincinnati with Lance Stephenson, if he manages to stay eligible all year, should be a darkhorse. Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are either incomplete teams (The Orange…LeMoyne says hi), poorly coached teams (The Hoyas) or both (The Panthers). Two of them will not make it. Pittsburgh lost everyone from last year’s team, they will assuredly be playing in the NIT. The rest of the conference is pretty bad. A real darkhorse could be South Florida, with Stan Heath in charge and Gus Gilchrist manning the post. Yes, that’s the same Gilchrist who should be wearing Maryland red and black. USF should be sure to send Debbie Yow a thank you card.

Big Ten
Projected Standings

1. Purdue*
2. Michigan State*
3. Ohio State*
4. Illinois*
5. Michigan*
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Indiana

Notes: Everyone remembers the finish of Michigan State’s 2008-09 season. Everyone forgets that Michigan State struggled most of the season with inconsistent offense and injuries. Purdue, in my opinion, was the better team last year. I think they will be the better team again. Both teams are definitely Top 10 squads, but I’ll give the Boilers the edge. As for the other nine teams, they aren’t going to be as good as everyone thinks. Let’s end all this babble about the Big Ten being the best basketball conference this season. They are still squarely behind the ACC, Big East and Big XII. Ohio State can score, so they’ll be able to squeeze at least 10 wins out of this conference. Illinois is young, will be respectable this season, but very scary next year. Michigan has two players to speak of with Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. They too were an average team until mid-March. Tubby Smith can’t keep enough of his Gophers eligible or out of prison. Look for a promising year to be stopped before it starts in Minneapolis. Wisconsin won’t be good, which is great for the rest of the country because we won’t have to watch 44-42 basketball games and won’t have to see how frightening Bo Ryan looks. Penn State had their chance last season. Northwestern would be good if they were in the Pac-10 or SEC. Iowa and Indiana are still in major rebuilding mode.

Big XII
Projected Standings

North
Kansas (2)*
Kansas State (5)*
Missouri (7)*
Iowa State (9)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas (1)*
Oklahoma (3)*
Oklahoma State (4)*
Texas A&M (6)*
Baylor (8)
Texas Tech (10)

Notes: Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your college basketball big dog for the season. Instead of taking trendy Kansas at #1 in the conference and in the nation, I’m going to take a better and deeper Texas team. When Jai Lucas is eligible to play in the second semester, the Longhorns are going to be at least 10-deep. Plus, there hasn’t been any drama in the offseason in Austin. The same can’t be said about Lawrence. And while Bill Self is a better coach than Rick Barnes, Barnes is going to have a real tough time screwing this one up. The rest of the conference is pretty good as well. I have them listed for seven tournament bids, but it may be less if the top 3-4 teams are so much better than the rest of the conference, that they just beat up on everyone. OU lost the Griffin brothers, but Willie Warren is the best player in the conference. Oklahoma State loses Byron Eaton, but returns the rest of the team. Kansas State, Texas A&M and Missouri have various talented pieces, but each is missing a third scoring option and depth. Baylor might challenge for a tournament bid in a lesser conference, but not the Big XII in 2010. Iowa State and Texas Tech should at least be competitive. Colorado and Nebraska will not be.

Pac-10
Projected Standings

1. Washington*
2. UCLA*
3. California*
4. Arizona*
5. Oregon
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Washington State
9. Southern Cal
10. Stanford

Notes: There are a lot of people writing off just about every team west of the Great Plains this season. I wouldn’t do that. While the Pac-10 is a shell of what it was two years ago, and even last season, there are still a couple of teams here that could make some noise. This conference may be way down this year, don’t think we’ll be seeing a 2008-09 version of the SEC. Washington has the great backcourt led by aptly named Isaiah Thomas. UCLA lost a lot in the offseason, but Ben Howland has recreated the Bruins into a monster. With a couple of more great recruiting classes, and a down conference, UCLA should be right in the thick of things. California is getting a lot of hype, since they are returning the majority of their team. But that was the same team that struggled in February and March, and didn’t have a decent frontcourt. Many are saying Arizona won’t be tournament ready with the loss of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. I think the hiring of Sean Miller will steady a program that has been in flux at the coaching position for the last two seasons. Oregon remains one of two dark horses, the other one coming from in-state rival Oregon State. Tajuan Porter is still in Eugene, but if the Ducks don’t get back to the dance, how long with Ernie Kent be there? The Beavers are on the other end of the spectrum. Craig Robinson has overachieved, but his team is young and may need another year before they seriously challenge in this conference. Washington State lost most of its talent and its coach. USC is a complete mess right now. Not sure why Kevin O’Neil decided to take the Trojans job, but this could be a career killer for him if he can’t keep the program afloat and if the NCAA comes down hard on them. Johnny Dawkins is just the latest Ratface assistant to prove he’s not a great head coach, following in the footsteps of Tommy Amaker, Quinn Snyder and Mike Brey. The Cardinal are going to be dreadful this season, and there is no hope for recovery in sight.

SEC
Projected Standings

East
Kentucky (1)*
Tennessee (2)*
Vanderbilt (4)*
South Carolina (5)*
Florida (8)
Georgia (12)

West
Mississippi State (3)*
Alabama (6)*
Mississippi (7)
LSU (9)
Arkansas (10)
Auburn (11)

Notes: John Calipari and Kentucky are getting all the attention, but there is more to like in the SEC than the Wildcats. True, Kentucky appears to be back on paper. However, I don’t think they can be considered a Top 5 team just yet. Tennessee could easily surprise them and take this conference, since there is more experience in Knoxville than in Lexington. Mississippi State is the class of the Western Division, even without Renardo Sidney. They still have Jarvis Varnado and a solid starting five in Starksville, and there isn’t another standout team in their division to challenge them. Vanderbilt and South Carolina should both have an easy time locking up an NCAA bid. They just can’t afford to slip up against Florida or Georgia. The Commodores are once again playing darkhorse with A.J. Ogilvy still suiting up for Kevin Stallings. Alabama won the Anthony Grant sweepstakes, and Grant should inherit a good enough roster to slide the Tide into one of the last NCAA tournament spots. Ole Miss could make some noise as long as their head coach stays out of trouble. Billy Donovan knows he has at least two more seasons before fans starting getting restless at Florida…he may have even longer if the football team continues to win and distract people. LSU will take a temporary step back this season. The other three teams are going to struggle to post 4-5 wins in this conference.

Mid-majors

The obvious ones
Butler
Dayton
Gonzaga
Xavier
Siena
BYU

Notes: With the exception of Xavier, each of these teams is the class of their conferences. Many have talked about Butler and Dayton making a serious run to the Elite 8…or further. I think that talk is WAY too premature. Butler looks like a Sweet 16 caliber team, but will they ever score enough points to win consistently against the big boy teams? Dayton can score, so I think they may actually be the best mid-major out there this season with Chris Wright returning. Xavier will keep the heat up on Dayton in the A-10. Gonzaga loses just about their entire team, but they’ll cruise to the WCC title once again. Siena returns the majority their team that has won a NCAA tournament game each of the last two years. The Mountain West lost a lot of talent, so that pretty much opens the conference up to BYU, with the majority of the Mormons returning to Provo.

The not so obvious ones
Tulsa
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
Nevada

Notes: I really love Tulsa. I talked about Jerome Jordan last season at this time, and he didn’t disappoint. Add in dynamic guard Ben Uzoh and the downfall of Memphis, it appears to be Tulsa’s time to shine in C-USA. Western Kentucky continues to be the North Carolina of the Sun Belt. They lose Orlando Mendez-Valdez, so A.J. Slaughter will step up in his place. This team could repeat their Sweet 16 visit from two seasons ago. The CAA usually cannibalizes itself, but this year should be different. Blaine Taylor and ODU are the clear favorites, and could be that dreaded 11-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. And, while most experts are ready to hand over the WAC to Utah State again, I think the loss of Gary Wilkinson will be too much for them to overcome. Nevada gets it done in the WAC, and wins a game in the NCAA tournament this season…even with a new coaching regime in Reno.

Under the radar Mid-majors
San Diego State
Illinois State
Houston
Troy
La Salle

Notes: If not for an awful last two weeks of the season, San Diego State would have made the NCAA tournament last season. And while the Aztecs are losing three starters from that team, they have a bevy of transfer students from big programs waiting to join the roster. Plus, the Mountain West should be good enough for three bids, so SDSU should step up behind BYU and UNLV. The same goes for the Atlantic 10. La Salle should be the third team behind Xavier and Dayton. Houston will have to compete with Memphis to finish second in C-USA, but Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis lead a very dangerous Cougar backcourt. Speaking of guards, Troy boasts a good combo as well. Richard Delk and Brandon Hazzard could help scare Western Kentucky, or could make the Sun Belt a two-bid league. Finally, there’s Illinois State. Northern Iowa and Creighton are getting most of the attention in the Missouri Valley, but remember the name Osiris Eldridge (and with a name like that, how could you not). He’s helped Illinois State advance to the MVC finals the last two seasons. This could be the year the Redbirds win it.


TOP 25

1. Texas
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan State
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Connecticut
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Georgia Tech
13. Butler
14. Duke
15. Dayton
16. Mississippi State
17. Ohio State
18. Louisville
19. UCLA
20. Oklahoma
21. Maryland
22. California
23. Clemson
24. Notre Dame
25. Illinois

Maryland Basketball: Thank Goodness For Basketball Season

It’s about time that I was able to write about something other than the Redskins. It’s Terps basketball season to the rescue. And not a moment too soon.

As we embark on Gary Williams’ 21st season in College Park, the Maryland basketball program stands at a crossroads. The 2002 National Championship is too far in the past to keep bragging about it, but it is still too recent to forget about it or the man who orchestrated that banner. Since that time we’ve seen everything. A respectable follow-up Sweet 16 berth in 2003. A “sign-of-things-to-come” season in 2004. Unfortunately, we didn’t know a close second round NCAA loss and an entire team returning was a sign for the most embarrassing season in recent memory in 2005, followed by another one in 2006. There was the senior laden team finally living up to potential in 2007. A 2008 that was too young to do anything other than lose to American and Ohio. And of course, the 2009 squad that took Maryland fans, and their coach, on a not-so-amusing joy ride that ended up in second round of the NCAA tournament.

This is where we find our Maryland Terrapins. The majority of the team returns, with two key reinforcements. On paper, you won’t find one analyst in the country who thinks Maryland will be worse than they were last season. No longer is Dave Neal forced to start at center. No longer will the entire frontcourt be makeshift. There may actually be not just one - but two - players who can now grab big rebounds. And yes, the key piece to puzzle skipped out on the NBA and will be returning for his senior year. BUT, this is still the same team that lost to Morgan State in January. This is still the same team that was blown off the floor by Ratface and the White Supremacists in Durham, then blown out again by John “One Foot Out The Door, One Hand Giving Out Cash” Calipari and the semi-pro team from Memphis. The 2009 season showed that the current group of players has potential, but it’s potential to be both good (beating Michigan State, UNC and Wake Forest) and bad.

Furthermore, the 7-year roller coaster ride the program has taken is no longer enjoyable for the larger portion of the fanbase. No one will argue that the program has gone downhill since 2002. You can argue about the degree of decline, but not the general direction. Looking ahead to next season, Williams is about to bring in his most celebrated class in a long time, and that class is only going to get larger and better in the coming months. But if Maryland undergoes another 2009, let alone another 2005 or 2006, will those 17-year-olds keep their promise to enroll at College Park in the fall of 2010? All these factors converge as the backdrop for the 2009-2010 Maryland Terrapins.

And what of the team itself? Who is to say? Most believe that they will the tournament with ease. Others think we may have flashbacks to last season. The general consensus seems to be between 3rd and 6th place in the ACC and at least one win in the NCAA tournament. To be perfectly honest, I don’t know what to make of this team. There’s a hint of 2003, with an experienced backcourt and a young promising frontline. There’s a hint of 2005, with Greivis Vasquez playing the role of John Gilchrist, who would have rather been in the NBA, ABA, CBA or anywhere overseas getting paid instead of playing college hoops. Certainly all the struggles and triumphs of last season still ring fresh in my mind. Hopefully by dissecting this roster, we can get some answers.

Backcourt:
For the second straight season, the strength of this team will be the guards. Vasquez is obviously the star of this unit and of the team. By skipping out on the draft, he instantly gives Maryland credibility. Vasquez is easily one of the top 10-15 players in the college ranks this season. What the rest of this unit needs to do is help him. Adrian Bowie, Eric Hayes, Sean Mosley and Cliff Tucker will all see significant playing time throughout the season. The backcourt is deep and extremely versatile. If the Terps want to go big, they can throw Bowie out at point and have Vasquez and Tucker (both 6’6”) play the wings. They have both Hayes and Tucker off the bench if they need three-point scoring. Vasquez can play point, shooting guard and small forward. Mosley and Vasquez are excellent defensemen. There are endless possibilities for this unit. However, someone other than Vasquez needs to score consistently. Bowie would be my choice. He has show the ability to hit from long range, and also show the ability to mirror Vasquez and slash to the hoop. He can create off the dribble, and he’s also unselfish. Other than Vasquez, he’s the team’s most complete player. He will probably start as the small forward/other shooting guard in most games, but he will move around throughout 40 minutes. As for the start of the season, we’ll probably see Vasquez at point, Mosley playing the 2, and Bowie at the 3. Hayes will be the first guy off the bench. Tucker will get plenty of minutes as long as his defense keeps improving.

Frontcourt:
For the second straight season it’s the big question mark. Landon Milbourne is guaranteed to play power forward for majority of the season. After that, who knows? It looked as if this would be a deeper position this year. Then Jerome Burney’s foot condition finally caught up with him and ended his career. In the summer, Dino Gregory decided to cheat on a test (at least, that is the popular theory at this point…the university won’t go into details). What this means for Gregory at a normal program is a 4-5 game suspension, or at worst, a suspension for the rest of the semester. What this means for Gregory at Maryland, a school where the Athletic Director is trying to get rid of her popular head basketball coach (you can bet that there will be more on that in the near future on this website), it could mean the entire season. Right now, it appears as if Gregory will not play until at least December, and my sources in the athletic department say that he probably won’t be eligible at all. So along with Milbourne, that leaves the two freshmen. Both are very talented, and both are a major upgrade from Dave Neal. But they are freshmen, and this is still the ACC. Gregory’s suspension could be a blessing in disguise. It will force James Padgett and Jordan Williams to play against non-conference competition, and they’ll hopefully be ready to go for the start of ACC play. Williams appears to be the better scorer, while Padgett appears to be the better defender and rebounder. That will just about guarantee Padgett the starting job until Williams’ defense catches up to his offense. Steve Goins could be used as depth if his knee surgery this past summer was up to snuff.

Rotation/Bench:
With Gregory, Maryland is a legitimate 9-deep team. That means Gary Williams can play his up-and-down the court style. Without him, Maryland is only 8-deep, and will have to rely on either Jin Soo Choi or Goins improving rapidly to get to nine. I doubt that will happen, but expect both to see spot time during the early part of the season, or a decent amount of playing time if there is foul trouble. Again, Gregory is not needed in the starting lineup, but without him, the depth of the frontcourt is severely crippled. The starting lineup will most likely be Vasquez-Mosley-Bowie-Milbourne-Padgett. Once again, Hayes will be first off the bench. Jordan Williams will definitely be seeing significant playing time. Tucker will be as well. The question mark’s hovering over Gregory leave a lot up in the air at this time.

What to expect:
Guess I have to put some kind of prediction down here. I think Maryland will probably slip up somewhere in Maui. They won’t be ready for Villanova in early December. But a good win in Maui, and a win at Indiana, will both be solid non-conference wins. The rest of the non-conference schedule is loaded with teams that will be near the bottom in RPI. While that certainly won’t help Maryland, maybe they’ll avoid having what is becoming an annual embarrassing loss (ie: American, Ohio, Morgan State). As for the ACC, the conference is so wide open, that a veteran backcourt like Maryland’s could carry this team to the top of the heap. However, chances are that Maryland is a 9-to-10 win ACC team. That will probably be good enough for 4th or 5th place and somewhere between a 7-9 seed in the NCAA tournament. I do expect them to match last year’s tournament win, but anything after that can’t be considered realistic until we know the fate of Gregory. With him, this team is deep enough and balanced enough to get through the first weekend. Without him, the backcourt will have to carry too much weight, as will the two freshmen. There wouldn’t be much of a likelihood of getting past the second round.

Conference predictions and Top 25 hopefully coming later in the week.

Redskins at Falcons: Apology Not Accepted

Washington Redskins (2-5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
1:00 p.m. Georgia Dome
The bye week came and went, but there are no solutions to the problems that have plagued the Redskins through the first seven games. The easy schedule didn’t help. Playing the Eagles and forcing the Redskins to play up to their competition didn’t help. There are no quick fixes on the offensive line (as I said back in September, the only way the Redskins were not going to be at least .500 is if the offensive line suffered a couple injuries…I hate being right). The power struggle behind the scenes continues. Jim Zorn is just basically showing up and collecting his paycheck at this point. On top of everything else, we’ve had some weird John Riggins-Greg Blache feud to deal with. The feud was sparked by Dan Snyder apologizing to the fans. Apparently, people were unhappy that he would apologize for the team’s lousy start. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t Danny.

Worse yet, it appears as if the Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden hires are losing momentum before the season is halfway over. Never count out what $10-20 million could do, but it doesn’t look like any of those three will be coming to Ashburn to bail out the Redskins this offseason. It appears to be Mike Shanahan or bust at this point. Again, if that means he’ll be the coach/GM, and Vinny Cerrato is fired because of it, then I’m all for it. Otherwise, I’m not too thrilled about the idea of Shanahan in D.C. Another name floating out there is Russ Grimm. We’ll cross that bridge more when we come to it, but there are some major pros and major cons if that hiring were to actually happen.

There’s no need to ramble on about the Redskins anymore. The bye week helped nothing. The players have still packed it in, the coaching staff has basically already packed up their belongings, and the schedule is just brutal. I assume the rest of these Redskins previews will be pretty short.

The Skins travel to Atlanta for their first road game in almost a month. Getting on the road may actually benefit the team, especially Jason Campbell and the offense. It also doesn’t hurt that the Redskins have had two weeks to get ready for this game while the Falcons not only had one, but it was a shortened week after their Monday night loss to New Orleans. The fact that Atlanta is coming off that game to New Orleans, which was a huge game for them, will also help Washington. The Falcons are almost guaranteed to have a letdown game.

Other than that, there aren’t a lot of positive notes going into this one. Atlanta had done a fantastic rebuilding job since the Michael Vick fiasco. It took them rough a year-and-a-half. The Falcons offense has been up-and-down at times, but when they click, they are one of the best units in the league. Behind a young and talented offensive line, Matt Ryan can pretty much do whatever he wants. He hasn’t been touched a whole lot this season. With Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, it’s hard for the opposing team to double team anyone. And with Michael Turner, a player who has established himself as one of the top five running backs in the league, no team can drop too many linebackers back into coverage or bring too many nickel and dime corners and have them play away from the line. The offense is very well balanced, and it’s surprising that they’ve even had occasional problems moving the ball.

Defensively, the Falcons give up a lot of yards. They surrender 378 yards per game. There are several reasons for that. First, they’ve played several good offenses. Second, they are a very aggressive defense, and even though they get lots of sacks and turnovers, they are prone to giving up big plays. Finally, the offense usually scores so quickly, the defense is on field an awful lot. The secondary is still kind of sketchy, but the front seven usually get to the quarterback enough to mask that deficiency.

For those who don’t understand what I’m talking about when I’ve discussed Greg Blache’s refusal to attack the quarterback must watch this game. The Falcons will do exactly what the Redskins should have been doing all season. They will hide their defensive issues by attacking Campbell, especially since they know the line is weak. I see a repeat of the Eagles six-sack performance coming up on Sunday. The defense should contain the Falcons for the most part. Expect Atlanta to struggle early as they’ve had the short week against the Redskins two weeks to prepare. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Skins actually jumped out on top. I would be surprised if the Skins were on top at the end of the game.

NFL Week 9: LOUD NOISES!!!!

After my outstanding Week 7, Week 8 was not as kind. That doesn’t mean it was awful, just above average. The overall record was 8-5, and the spread record was 6-7. For the season, they look a little something like this:

Overall: 76-33 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 61-46-2

SUNDAY

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)(-6.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
If anyone wants to really have fun listening to a football game, try to find highlites of last week’s Jaguars-Titans game with CBS’ television call underneath. I only need two words to describe it: Gus Johnson.
Pick: Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens (4-3)(-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
1:00 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
It makes too much sense to pick Cincinnati here. They are at home, coming off a bye week, they’ve already beaten the Ravens, etc… Vegas clearly knows something I don’t with this line, so I’ll go with it.
Pick: Ravens

Houston Texans (5-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)(-9)
1:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Field
As good as the Colts are, they are not going to go undefeated. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to watch. Even last week, when they played their C- game against the 49ers, Peyton Manning was still able to move the ball and make the game entertaining. This is the last chance that anyone in the AFC South has of stopping the Colts from winning this division by Thanksgiving. Houston should be able to give them fits for the first half, but the Colts will probably put them, and the division, away in the 3rd quarter.
Pick: Colts

Green Bay Packers (4-3)(-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
The Packers 4-3 should really be written as 4-3* (* Meaning that they’ve already lost twice to Minnesota and are already 2.5 games behind the Vikings. So it’s really like a 3.5 game lead since the Vikings own the tiebreaker. So despite being over .500, the Packers really have no chance at winning the division and probably won’t make the playoffs because of their second half schedule).
Pick: Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-3)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Soldier Field
The Cardinals go on the road and dominate the Giants one week, then return home and get blown out by the Panthers. Does this make any sense to you? Me either. Still looks like nine games will win the NFC West.
Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins (3-4) vs. New England Patriots (5-2)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
With the Lakers winning the NBA Championship, the Yankees winning the World Series, and the Colts on pace to win the Super Bowl, this could be an awful year to be a Boston sports fan. And an awful year for them is an awesome year for the rest of us. Go listen to some more Neil Diamond you losers.
Pick: Patriots

Carolina Panthers (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (7-0)(-13)
4:05 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
Jon Gruden is terrible as a MNF announcer. You might as well bring back Tony Kornheiser. First of all, he makes up retarded nicknames for just about every player. Secondly, he yells into the microphone way too much. HEY JON, THE MICROPHONE IS A DEVICE THAT PICKS UP YOUR VOICE AND THEN AMPLIFIES IT FOR YOU. YOU DON’T HAVE TO YELL FOR PEOPLE TO HEAR YOU. YOU ARE NOT GUS JOHNSON. Finally, he acted as if the Saints had cleared their last major hurdle by beating the Falcons. He said “I don’t know if anyone remaining on their schedule can come close to beating these guys.” I think the Saints are a great team. I hope they make the Super Bowl and face the Colts. But the Saints still have games against New England, Dallas and have to play at Atlanta. I wouldn’t call any of those easy wins.
Pick: Saints, Panthers cover

Detroit Lions (1-6) vs. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)(-10)
4:05 p.m. Qwest Field
I’m not sure the Seahawks should be favored over anyone, including the Lions, by double digits. On a positive note, the Seahawks are only 2 games out of first in the NFC West!
Pick: Seahawks, Lions cover

Tennessee Titans (1-6) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)(-4)
4:15 p.m. Candlestick Park
There is all this talk about a moral victory for the 49ers, since they only lost by 4 at Indianapolis. I wonder how that moral victory is sitting with Mike Singletary.
Pick: 49ers

San Diego Chargers (4-3) vs. New York Giants (5-3)(-5.5)
4:15 p.m. Giants Stadium
So that’s three straight weeks the Giants have been exposed against better football teams. Not sure how much better the Chargers are (they are coached by Norv Turner after all), but I certainly think that they are better than the Giants at this point of the season. Eli Manning has definitely regressed into old school Eli Manning. The running game has become predictable. The secondary had been beaten deep. A lot of issues on this Giants team right now.
Pick: Chargers

Dallas Cowboys (5-2) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)(-3)
8:20 p.m. Lincoln Financial Field
Now that Tony Romo is done beating up on the Buccaneers and the Seahawks of the world, it will be fun to watch him fumble twice and throw at least two interceptions on the road against a good team. Cue the deer in headlights look right about…now.
Pick: Eagles

MONDAY

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)(-3) vs. Denver Broncos (6-1)
8:30 p.m. Mile High Stadium
If the Ravens can come off a bye week and handle Denver, then I’m sure the Steelers will have an even easier time coming off their bye week and handling Denver.
Pick: Steelers

Bye Week: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York Jets, Oakland, St. Louis