Maryland Basketball: Thank Goodness For Basketball Season

It’s about time that I was able to write about something other than the Redskins. It’s Terps basketball season to the rescue. And not a moment too soon.

As we embark on Gary Williams’ 21st season in College Park, the Maryland basketball program stands at a crossroads. The 2002 National Championship is too far in the past to keep bragging about it, but it is still too recent to forget about it or the man who orchestrated that banner. Since that time we’ve seen everything. A respectable follow-up Sweet 16 berth in 2003. A “sign-of-things-to-come” season in 2004. Unfortunately, we didn’t know a close second round NCAA loss and an entire team returning was a sign for the most embarrassing season in recent memory in 2005, followed by another one in 2006. There was the senior laden team finally living up to potential in 2007. A 2008 that was too young to do anything other than lose to American and Ohio. And of course, the 2009 squad that took Maryland fans, and their coach, on a not-so-amusing joy ride that ended up in second round of the NCAA tournament.

This is where we find our Maryland Terrapins. The majority of the team returns, with two key reinforcements. On paper, you won’t find one analyst in the country who thinks Maryland will be worse than they were last season. No longer is Dave Neal forced to start at center. No longer will the entire frontcourt be makeshift. There may actually be not just one - but two - players who can now grab big rebounds. And yes, the key piece to puzzle skipped out on the NBA and will be returning for his senior year. BUT, this is still the same team that lost to Morgan State in January. This is still the same team that was blown off the floor by Ratface and the White Supremacists in Durham, then blown out again by John “One Foot Out The Door, One Hand Giving Out Cash” Calipari and the semi-pro team from Memphis. The 2009 season showed that the current group of players has potential, but it’s potential to be both good (beating Michigan State, UNC and Wake Forest) and bad.

Furthermore, the 7-year roller coaster ride the program has taken is no longer enjoyable for the larger portion of the fanbase. No one will argue that the program has gone downhill since 2002. You can argue about the degree of decline, but not the general direction. Looking ahead to next season, Williams is about to bring in his most celebrated class in a long time, and that class is only going to get larger and better in the coming months. But if Maryland undergoes another 2009, let alone another 2005 or 2006, will those 17-year-olds keep their promise to enroll at College Park in the fall of 2010? All these factors converge as the backdrop for the 2009-2010 Maryland Terrapins.

And what of the team itself? Who is to say? Most believe that they will the tournament with ease. Others think we may have flashbacks to last season. The general consensus seems to be between 3rd and 6th place in the ACC and at least one win in the NCAA tournament. To be perfectly honest, I don’t know what to make of this team. There’s a hint of 2003, with an experienced backcourt and a young promising frontline. There’s a hint of 2005, with Greivis Vasquez playing the role of John Gilchrist, who would have rather been in the NBA, ABA, CBA or anywhere overseas getting paid instead of playing college hoops. Certainly all the struggles and triumphs of last season still ring fresh in my mind. Hopefully by dissecting this roster, we can get some answers.

Backcourt:
For the second straight season, the strength of this team will be the guards. Vasquez is obviously the star of this unit and of the team. By skipping out on the draft, he instantly gives Maryland credibility. Vasquez is easily one of the top 10-15 players in the college ranks this season. What the rest of this unit needs to do is help him. Adrian Bowie, Eric Hayes, Sean Mosley and Cliff Tucker will all see significant playing time throughout the season. The backcourt is deep and extremely versatile. If the Terps want to go big, they can throw Bowie out at point and have Vasquez and Tucker (both 6’6”) play the wings. They have both Hayes and Tucker off the bench if they need three-point scoring. Vasquez can play point, shooting guard and small forward. Mosley and Vasquez are excellent defensemen. There are endless possibilities for this unit. However, someone other than Vasquez needs to score consistently. Bowie would be my choice. He has show the ability to hit from long range, and also show the ability to mirror Vasquez and slash to the hoop. He can create off the dribble, and he’s also unselfish. Other than Vasquez, he’s the team’s most complete player. He will probably start as the small forward/other shooting guard in most games, but he will move around throughout 40 minutes. As for the start of the season, we’ll probably see Vasquez at point, Mosley playing the 2, and Bowie at the 3. Hayes will be the first guy off the bench. Tucker will get plenty of minutes as long as his defense keeps improving.

Frontcourt:
For the second straight season it’s the big question mark. Landon Milbourne is guaranteed to play power forward for majority of the season. After that, who knows? It looked as if this would be a deeper position this year. Then Jerome Burney’s foot condition finally caught up with him and ended his career. In the summer, Dino Gregory decided to cheat on a test (at least, that is the popular theory at this point…the university won’t go into details). What this means for Gregory at a normal program is a 4-5 game suspension, or at worst, a suspension for the rest of the semester. What this means for Gregory at Maryland, a school where the Athletic Director is trying to get rid of her popular head basketball coach (you can bet that there will be more on that in the near future on this website), it could mean the entire season. Right now, it appears as if Gregory will not play until at least December, and my sources in the athletic department say that he probably won’t be eligible at all. So along with Milbourne, that leaves the two freshmen. Both are very talented, and both are a major upgrade from Dave Neal. But they are freshmen, and this is still the ACC. Gregory’s suspension could be a blessing in disguise. It will force James Padgett and Jordan Williams to play against non-conference competition, and they’ll hopefully be ready to go for the start of ACC play. Williams appears to be the better scorer, while Padgett appears to be the better defender and rebounder. That will just about guarantee Padgett the starting job until Williams’ defense catches up to his offense. Steve Goins could be used as depth if his knee surgery this past summer was up to snuff.

Rotation/Bench:
With Gregory, Maryland is a legitimate 9-deep team. That means Gary Williams can play his up-and-down the court style. Without him, Maryland is only 8-deep, and will have to rely on either Jin Soo Choi or Goins improving rapidly to get to nine. I doubt that will happen, but expect both to see spot time during the early part of the season, or a decent amount of playing time if there is foul trouble. Again, Gregory is not needed in the starting lineup, but without him, the depth of the frontcourt is severely crippled. The starting lineup will most likely be Vasquez-Mosley-Bowie-Milbourne-Padgett. Once again, Hayes will be first off the bench. Jordan Williams will definitely be seeing significant playing time. Tucker will be as well. The question mark’s hovering over Gregory leave a lot up in the air at this time.

What to expect:
Guess I have to put some kind of prediction down here. I think Maryland will probably slip up somewhere in Maui. They won’t be ready for Villanova in early December. But a good win in Maui, and a win at Indiana, will both be solid non-conference wins. The rest of the non-conference schedule is loaded with teams that will be near the bottom in RPI. While that certainly won’t help Maryland, maybe they’ll avoid having what is becoming an annual embarrassing loss (ie: American, Ohio, Morgan State). As for the ACC, the conference is so wide open, that a veteran backcourt like Maryland’s could carry this team to the top of the heap. However, chances are that Maryland is a 9-to-10 win ACC team. That will probably be good enough for 4th or 5th place and somewhere between a 7-9 seed in the NCAA tournament. I do expect them to match last year’s tournament win, but anything after that can’t be considered realistic until we know the fate of Gregory. With him, this team is deep enough and balanced enough to get through the first weekend. Without him, the backcourt will have to carry too much weight, as will the two freshmen. There wouldn’t be much of a likelihood of getting past the second round.

Conference predictions and Top 25 hopefully coming later in the week.