NFL Week 11: Egomaniacal

After a lackluster Week 9, Week 10 went much, much better. I was 11-3 overall and 9-5 against the spread. Here we go for Week 11 and here are the season records:

Overall: 94-41 (69%)
Vs. Spread: 76-57-2

THURSDAY

Miami Dolphins (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (4-5)(-3)
8:30 p.m. Bank of America Stadium
Please tell me the point of these Thursday games. Last week we had two teams at or below .500. This week we have two teams a game below .500. What can be accomplished by putting these teams in primetime? I’ll go with the Panthers since the Dolphins are without their starting running back/quarterback/wide receiver/lead Wildcat-er/waterboy Ronnie Brown.
Pick: Panthers

SUNDAY

Cleveland Browns (1-8) vs. Detroit Lions (1-8)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Ford Field
What, were these two teams unavailable for Thursday night?
Pick: Lions

Buffalo Bills (3-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)(-8.5)
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
If you had Dick Jauron as the first fired coach of the year, time to cash in. I think he was at least giving 3-1 odds at the beginning of the season. Maybe giving him that extension midway through last season wasn’t such a great idea.
Pick: Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)(-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)
1:00 p.m. Arrowhead Stadium
I wouldn’t count the Steelers out in the AFC just yet. It looks like it will be a massive uphill struggle to get to the top of the division (with the Bengals owning the tiebreaker and three automatic wins the next few weeks). But this is still a team that can lay low, get healthy, and win on the road in January. In summary, don’t count them out.
Pick: Steelers

Indianapolis Colts (9-0)(-1) vs. Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
1:00 p.m. M&T Bank Stadium
The Colts giving one measly point to a team that hasn’t played well since late September? I mean sure, I could use the money. The Colts will lose, and I know where. But it won’t be in Baltimore to a team that they’ve owned in recent seasons. By the way, how bad do the Ravens look for letting Matt Stover walk away? Sure the guy couldn’t kick field goal over 45 yards. But the guy they got to replace him couldn’t hit from 30. On a scale of one-to-ten, odds that Stover burns his former team in this game are about a 23.
Pick: Colts

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) vs. New York Giants (5-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Giants Stadium
Facing a team that doesn’t have its two best running backs and has been struggling for several weeks, you’d figure the Giants would be able to win this one, right? I’m not convinced.
Pick: Giants, Falcons cover

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-4)(-7)
1:00 p.m. Lambeau Field
Funny what a win against the overrated Cowboys can do to a spread. Last week the Packers were 3-point underdogs at home. This week it’s a full 10-point reversal. This is still the same team that lost to Tampa Bay two weeks ago.
Pick: Packers, 49ers cover

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (8-1)(-10.5)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
The Seahawks were another team that lost their running back on Fantasy Football’s Black Sunday. Unlike the other teams, losing Julius Jones could help the Seahawks in the long run. Jones is not the long term answer at running back for the Seahawks, but Justin Forsett has the potential to be a staple in their backfield. May be a blessing in disguise in the long run.
Pick: Vikings

New Orleans Saints (9-0)(-11.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
1:00 p.m. Raymond James Stadium
There was a real interesting article in Sports Illustrated a couple of week ago on the Bucs. It talked about the complete strip down of the franchise in order to rebuild. It was as close to a MLB fire sale (ala the Marlins) as you will ever see in the NFL. The only problem is they cut most of the players instead of trading them for picks or prospects. Also, they decided to hire Raheem Morris instead of an actual coach (see Buccaneers at Redskins post). In theory, it was a probably a good idea to get the rebuilding out of the way and go from one of the oldest teams to one of the youngest teams practically overnight. On paper, it’s not playing out that well.
Pick: Saints

Arizona Cardinals (6-3)(-8.5) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-8)
4:05 p.m. Edward Jones Dome
Again, the Cardinals are just one win and one 49ers loss from pretty much wrapping up the NFL's worst division. This could be the week.
Pick: Cardinals

New York Jets (4-5) vs. New England Patriots (6-3)(-10.5)
4:15 p.m. Gillette Stadium
How ‘bout this coaching matchup, huh? You got one coach crying, whining, saying he’s trying to act like a man and his team has lost five of their last six. He also happens to coach in the New York media market, where these episodes tend to be blown out of proportion. And Rex Ryan had the easier week. Bill Belichick showed how much his ego has grown over the past decade by making that absolutely ridiculous decision that cost his team the game against the Colts. There have been a lot of people coming to his defense, saying that hindsight is 20/20, blah blah blah. Except that I said at the time, before the failed 4th down play was even snapped, that this was the worst possible decision he could make. I had no hindsight. No clue that his team wouldn’t convert. No clue that Peyton Manning would finish off the Pats (although I think most logical people would have guessed that would be the outcome). It was a flat out terrible decision. Period. End of story. There’s no defending it. 99.9% of coaches punt the ball, even if they are facing Manning. Let’s see, would I rather give Manning the ball at my own 30, or his own 30? Would I rather force Manning to drive 30 yards or 70? There are 10-year-olds who could make that decision better than Belichick did.
Pick: Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2)(-9) vs. Oakland Raiders (2-7)
4:15 p.m. Oakland-Alameda Coliseum
Looks like the Bengals are really going to win this division. Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit on the upcoming schedule will make sure of that.
Pick: Bengals

San Diego Chargers (6-3)(-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (6-3)
4:15 p.m. Mile High Stadium
Even though it took longer than I expected, that sound you hear is Denver and Josh “Little Belichick” McDaniels crashing back to Earth. Now the Broncos don’t even have Kyle Orton, instead having to start Chris Simms with the division on the line. The only coach who could screw this one up is Norv Turner…uh oh.
Pick: Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4)(-3) vs. Chicago Bears (4-5)
8:20 p.m. Soldier Field
I’ll play a hunch and say that Jay Cutler bounces back, Donovan McNabb plays like Cutler did last week, and Andy Reid finds his butt over a very large Bunsen burner.
Pick: Bears

MONDAY

Tennessee Titans (3-6) vs. Houston Texans (5-4)(-4.5)
8:30 p.m. Reliant Stadium
Lost in all the Chris Johnson hoopla the last few weeks, is the fact that the Titans are only 3-6, they’ve beaten several average or below average teams, and their quarterback is still Vince Young. I’ll take my chances with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson in a shootout.
Pick: Texans