College Basketball Preview, 2009-2010

Here we go, 2009-10 basketball season preview. I’ll take a look at the six power conferences, a few of the mid-majors I expect to make some noise, and we’ll wrap it all up with the Top 25. Teams with a * next to their names I’ve projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Maryland preview is below this post, but we’ll talk about the Terps more when they get to Maui.

ACC
Projected Standings

1. North Carolina*
2. Georgia Tech*
3. Duke*
4. Maryland*
5. Clemson*
6. Wake Forest*
7. Boston College
8. Miami
9. Florida State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Virginia
12. NC State

Notes: North Carolina still gets the nod because they are still immensely talented. Will they be as good as last season? Of course not. But they are the best team in the ACC. Georgia Tech was going to be good before they added freshman Derrick Favors to the mix. Paul Hewitt finally gets a team with the majority of decent players jumping to the NBA or Europe. Duke has questions in the backcourt AND major questions about it’s depth. It appears 2010-11 may be a potentially good year for them, but they’ll be also-rans this season. On the other hand, Maryland’s backcourt is great, but too many frontcourt issues remain to put them higher than 4th. Clemson returns Trevor Booker, and adds two terrific freshmen in Milton Jennings and Noel Johnson. However, too much experience was lost at the guard position. Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu should be ACC player of the year as long as the media morons don’t vote for Duke White Stiff. Teams 1-6 could really finish in several orders, but that’s clearly the top half of the conference. Boston College, Miami and Florida State lost Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton and Toney Douglas respectively. I have a feeling that BC may be better without Rice, but that remains to be seen. The Tony Bennett hiring was an awful move by Virginia. Not sure how he is going to be able to recruit in this area with his style of play. And believe it or not, NC State may actually be worse than last season. Sidney Lowe has some interesting players coming in next year, but I doubt he’ll be around to coach them.

Big East
Projected Standings

1. Villanova*
2. Connecticut*
3. West Virginia*
4. Louisville*
5. Notre Dame*
6. Cincinnati*
7. Georgetown*
8. Syracuse
9. Pittsburgh
10. Marquette
11. Seton Hall
12. Providence
13. St. John’s
14. South Florida
15. Rutgers
16. DePaul

Notes: The Big East prepares to take three giant steps backwards this season (even though they didn’t place a team in the finals last year), as there are only three to four teams to really watch this season. Villanova is legit. Three top scorers return along with a very highly ranked recruiting class. Of course, having Scottie Reynolds doesn’t hurt. Getting Jerome Dyson healthy will be the key for UConn, despite losing a lot. They just reload under that criminal Jim Calhoun. Bob Huggins has a history of overachieving with bad rosters (like last season), but underachieving with good ones (ie: his entire career at Cincinnati). He may have the best team in this conference, but they won’t play like it. Louisville could be the 2nd place team in this conference, but there have been an awful lot of distractions (Pitino extortion case, several players getting arrested, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams to the NBA). Luke Harangody will help Notre Dame bounce back. Cincinnati with Lance Stephenson, if he manages to stay eligible all year, should be a darkhorse. Georgetown, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are either incomplete teams (The Orange…LeMoyne says hi), poorly coached teams (The Hoyas) or both (The Panthers). Two of them will not make it. Pittsburgh lost everyone from last year’s team, they will assuredly be playing in the NIT. The rest of the conference is pretty bad. A real darkhorse could be South Florida, with Stan Heath in charge and Gus Gilchrist manning the post. Yes, that’s the same Gilchrist who should be wearing Maryland red and black. USF should be sure to send Debbie Yow a thank you card.

Big Ten
Projected Standings

1. Purdue*
2. Michigan State*
3. Ohio State*
4. Illinois*
5. Michigan*
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Penn State
9. Northwestern
10. Iowa
11. Indiana

Notes: Everyone remembers the finish of Michigan State’s 2008-09 season. Everyone forgets that Michigan State struggled most of the season with inconsistent offense and injuries. Purdue, in my opinion, was the better team last year. I think they will be the better team again. Both teams are definitely Top 10 squads, but I’ll give the Boilers the edge. As for the other nine teams, they aren’t going to be as good as everyone thinks. Let’s end all this babble about the Big Ten being the best basketball conference this season. They are still squarely behind the ACC, Big East and Big XII. Ohio State can score, so they’ll be able to squeeze at least 10 wins out of this conference. Illinois is young, will be respectable this season, but very scary next year. Michigan has two players to speak of with Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. They too were an average team until mid-March. Tubby Smith can’t keep enough of his Gophers eligible or out of prison. Look for a promising year to be stopped before it starts in Minneapolis. Wisconsin won’t be good, which is great for the rest of the country because we won’t have to watch 44-42 basketball games and won’t have to see how frightening Bo Ryan looks. Penn State had their chance last season. Northwestern would be good if they were in the Pac-10 or SEC. Iowa and Indiana are still in major rebuilding mode.

Big XII
Projected Standings

North
Kansas (2)*
Kansas State (5)*
Missouri (7)*
Iowa State (9)
Colorado (11)
Nebraska (12)

South
Texas (1)*
Oklahoma (3)*
Oklahoma State (4)*
Texas A&M (6)*
Baylor (8)
Texas Tech (10)

Notes: Ladies and Gentlemen, here is your college basketball big dog for the season. Instead of taking trendy Kansas at #1 in the conference and in the nation, I’m going to take a better and deeper Texas team. When Jai Lucas is eligible to play in the second semester, the Longhorns are going to be at least 10-deep. Plus, there hasn’t been any drama in the offseason in Austin. The same can’t be said about Lawrence. And while Bill Self is a better coach than Rick Barnes, Barnes is going to have a real tough time screwing this one up. The rest of the conference is pretty good as well. I have them listed for seven tournament bids, but it may be less if the top 3-4 teams are so much better than the rest of the conference, that they just beat up on everyone. OU lost the Griffin brothers, but Willie Warren is the best player in the conference. Oklahoma State loses Byron Eaton, but returns the rest of the team. Kansas State, Texas A&M and Missouri have various talented pieces, but each is missing a third scoring option and depth. Baylor might challenge for a tournament bid in a lesser conference, but not the Big XII in 2010. Iowa State and Texas Tech should at least be competitive. Colorado and Nebraska will not be.

Pac-10
Projected Standings

1. Washington*
2. UCLA*
3. California*
4. Arizona*
5. Oregon
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Washington State
9. Southern Cal
10. Stanford

Notes: There are a lot of people writing off just about every team west of the Great Plains this season. I wouldn’t do that. While the Pac-10 is a shell of what it was two years ago, and even last season, there are still a couple of teams here that could make some noise. This conference may be way down this year, don’t think we’ll be seeing a 2008-09 version of the SEC. Washington has the great backcourt led by aptly named Isaiah Thomas. UCLA lost a lot in the offseason, but Ben Howland has recreated the Bruins into a monster. With a couple of more great recruiting classes, and a down conference, UCLA should be right in the thick of things. California is getting a lot of hype, since they are returning the majority of their team. But that was the same team that struggled in February and March, and didn’t have a decent frontcourt. Many are saying Arizona won’t be tournament ready with the loss of Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. I think the hiring of Sean Miller will steady a program that has been in flux at the coaching position for the last two seasons. Oregon remains one of two dark horses, the other one coming from in-state rival Oregon State. Tajuan Porter is still in Eugene, but if the Ducks don’t get back to the dance, how long with Ernie Kent be there? The Beavers are on the other end of the spectrum. Craig Robinson has overachieved, but his team is young and may need another year before they seriously challenge in this conference. Washington State lost most of its talent and its coach. USC is a complete mess right now. Not sure why Kevin O’Neil decided to take the Trojans job, but this could be a career killer for him if he can’t keep the program afloat and if the NCAA comes down hard on them. Johnny Dawkins is just the latest Ratface assistant to prove he’s not a great head coach, following in the footsteps of Tommy Amaker, Quinn Snyder and Mike Brey. The Cardinal are going to be dreadful this season, and there is no hope for recovery in sight.

SEC
Projected Standings

East
Kentucky (1)*
Tennessee (2)*
Vanderbilt (4)*
South Carolina (5)*
Florida (8)
Georgia (12)

West
Mississippi State (3)*
Alabama (6)*
Mississippi (7)
LSU (9)
Arkansas (10)
Auburn (11)

Notes: John Calipari and Kentucky are getting all the attention, but there is more to like in the SEC than the Wildcats. True, Kentucky appears to be back on paper. However, I don’t think they can be considered a Top 5 team just yet. Tennessee could easily surprise them and take this conference, since there is more experience in Knoxville than in Lexington. Mississippi State is the class of the Western Division, even without Renardo Sidney. They still have Jarvis Varnado and a solid starting five in Starksville, and there isn’t another standout team in their division to challenge them. Vanderbilt and South Carolina should both have an easy time locking up an NCAA bid. They just can’t afford to slip up against Florida or Georgia. The Commodores are once again playing darkhorse with A.J. Ogilvy still suiting up for Kevin Stallings. Alabama won the Anthony Grant sweepstakes, and Grant should inherit a good enough roster to slide the Tide into one of the last NCAA tournament spots. Ole Miss could make some noise as long as their head coach stays out of trouble. Billy Donovan knows he has at least two more seasons before fans starting getting restless at Florida…he may have even longer if the football team continues to win and distract people. LSU will take a temporary step back this season. The other three teams are going to struggle to post 4-5 wins in this conference.

Mid-majors

The obvious ones
Butler
Dayton
Gonzaga
Xavier
Siena
BYU

Notes: With the exception of Xavier, each of these teams is the class of their conferences. Many have talked about Butler and Dayton making a serious run to the Elite 8…or further. I think that talk is WAY too premature. Butler looks like a Sweet 16 caliber team, but will they ever score enough points to win consistently against the big boy teams? Dayton can score, so I think they may actually be the best mid-major out there this season with Chris Wright returning. Xavier will keep the heat up on Dayton in the A-10. Gonzaga loses just about their entire team, but they’ll cruise to the WCC title once again. Siena returns the majority their team that has won a NCAA tournament game each of the last two years. The Mountain West lost a lot of talent, so that pretty much opens the conference up to BYU, with the majority of the Mormons returning to Provo.

The not so obvious ones
Tulsa
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
Nevada

Notes: I really love Tulsa. I talked about Jerome Jordan last season at this time, and he didn’t disappoint. Add in dynamic guard Ben Uzoh and the downfall of Memphis, it appears to be Tulsa’s time to shine in C-USA. Western Kentucky continues to be the North Carolina of the Sun Belt. They lose Orlando Mendez-Valdez, so A.J. Slaughter will step up in his place. This team could repeat their Sweet 16 visit from two seasons ago. The CAA usually cannibalizes itself, but this year should be different. Blaine Taylor and ODU are the clear favorites, and could be that dreaded 11-12 seed in the NCAA tournament. And, while most experts are ready to hand over the WAC to Utah State again, I think the loss of Gary Wilkinson will be too much for them to overcome. Nevada gets it done in the WAC, and wins a game in the NCAA tournament this season…even with a new coaching regime in Reno.

Under the radar Mid-majors
San Diego State
Illinois State
Houston
Troy
La Salle

Notes: If not for an awful last two weeks of the season, San Diego State would have made the NCAA tournament last season. And while the Aztecs are losing three starters from that team, they have a bevy of transfer students from big programs waiting to join the roster. Plus, the Mountain West should be good enough for three bids, so SDSU should step up behind BYU and UNLV. The same goes for the Atlantic 10. La Salle should be the third team behind Xavier and Dayton. Houston will have to compete with Memphis to finish second in C-USA, but Aubrey Coleman and Kelvin Lewis lead a very dangerous Cougar backcourt. Speaking of guards, Troy boasts a good combo as well. Richard Delk and Brandon Hazzard could help scare Western Kentucky, or could make the Sun Belt a two-bid league. Finally, there’s Illinois State. Northern Iowa and Creighton are getting most of the attention in the Missouri Valley, but remember the name Osiris Eldridge (and with a name like that, how could you not). He’s helped Illinois State advance to the MVC finals the last two seasons. This could be the year the Redbirds win it.


TOP 25

1. Texas
2. Villanova
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. North Carolina
6. Michigan State
7. Kentucky
8. Tennessee
9. Connecticut
10. West Virginia
11. Washington
12. Georgia Tech
13. Butler
14. Duke
15. Dayton
16. Mississippi State
17. Ohio State
18. Louisville
19. UCLA
20. Oklahoma
21. Maryland
22. California
23. Clemson
24. Notre Dame
25. Illinois