NFL Playoffs: From Undefeated To Unloved

Went 2-2 last week. I got the Jets (which everyone else did) and the Cardinals (which no one else did) correct. Trying to do a little better in this round.

SATURDAY
Arizona Cardinals (11-6) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Louisiana Superdome
It’s amazing to me how many people don’t think either the Saints or Colts can win a playoff game, let alone win the Super Bowl. Just because both of these teams struggled over the final month of the season, all of a sudden people are ignoring their combined 27-5 records. Furthermore, the two teams are completely different cases and got to their current records two different ways. More on the Colts in a second.

Unlike Indianapolis, the Saints actually tried down the stretch, which makes their fall a little more worrisome. You can’t argue that the Saints failed to put forth an effort to win games against the Cowboys and Buccaneers. They certainly did. Their finale against Carolina was meaningless, and they didn’t show a whole lot in that game. But they didn’t hide anything from Dallas or Tampa and they didn’t rest any of their starters. So what gives?

Well that New Orleans defense, which many said was the best in the league at the midseason point, really isn’t that good. Everyone was willing to hand the coach of the year trophy to Sean Payton and a smaller version of the award to defensive coordinator Gregg Williams in November. However, the reason the Saints defense was so good for the majority of the season was the Saints offense. New Orleans has basically been able to score at will this year. For the majority of their wins, they were able to establish an early lead. That allowed the defense to be more aggressive and forced opposing offenses to be more predictable (abandoning the running game in favor of passing). An aggressive defense playing a predictable offense usually leads to a predictable outcome. The Saints were able to rack up the stats defensively (sacks, turnovers, etc…) because their offense put them in favorable positions. When the Saints defense was forced to play without a large lead or forced to play from behind, they couldn’t stop anyone. That included the lowly Buccaneers. In fact, the Saints only had two comeback wins all season. And neither of those were the result of falling behind 10-0 or 14-0, then coming back to win 20-17 because of the defense. In the comebacks against the Dolphins and Redskins, the offense needed to put up a combined 79 points to bail out the defense and win the game. And when the offense wasn’t able to score enough, the Saints lost.

So here we are in the second round of the playoffs. The Saints are facing the one NFC team they probably didn’t want to see. New Orleans matched up better against Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia and even Dallas (yes, I know the Cowboys beat them once…but I would take my chances with New Orleans in a rematch). Arizona has the passing game to beat any defense, no matter how predictable the Cardinals become. As we saw against Green Bay, the Cardinals can score on a good defense with great ease. It doesn’t matter if the Saints know the pass is coming, the Cardinals will be able to execute. So it really isn’t a matter of if the Cardinals offense can keep pace in a shootout with New Orleans. The real question, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, is can the Saints offense keep up with Arizona?

Despite the questions around New Orleans, I’m going to take them here. They didn’t get to 13-3 by accident. The one thing Arizona didn’t do last week was turn the ball over. They have been prone to giving the ball away all season. So they are due for a couple of them in this game. Even though the Saints defense isn’t great, they do a great job of ball-hawking. Turnovers are the difference, and the Saints move on.
Pick: Saints 38, Cardinals 28

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (14-2)(-6)
8:00 p.m. Lucas Oil Stadium
The most shocking result by far from last week was the Ravens beatdown of the Patriots. Other than the final margin of victory, two things stood out to me. One, the Ravens were able to stop beating themselves with penalties. I believe they only committed three during the game. Two, the Ravens gave New England every chance to comeback and win that game in the 2nd quarter and the Patriots simply didn’t take advantage. Which means the Pats simply weren’t as good as everyone, including myself, thought they were. I didn’t think they were all that good, but I certainly thought they were able to beat an average Baltimore team at home.

Just like Arizona is due for turnovers this week, I think Baltimore is due for a penalty-filled game. They’ll also need Joe Flacco to do more than 4-10 for 34 yards and a pick. Since he’s been hurt, and since he’s not that good, I wouldn’t expect him to keep up with Peyton Manning in this game. The Ravens will also have to face an offense that goes vertical and downfield. The weakness of the Baltimore defense is the secondary. The Patriots were only interested in throwing 5-yard dinks and dunks. They’ll get a little more from Manning than they did from Tom Brady.

A few years ago, the Colts tried the strategy of resting their starters down the stretch. They played like crap for the first half of their playoff loss to the Steelers as a result. It was clear that rust was a factor in that game. But the Steelers had a better quarterback and a balanced offense. Along with deep pass coverage, Flacco and his receivers are a huge weakness for the Ravens. It’s going to come back to burn them somewhere in these playoffs.
Pick: Colts 31, Ravens 17


SUNDAY
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)(-3)
1:00 p.m. Metrodome
Like last week, one of these teams has to go home, and that’s a good thing. I have nothing against the Vikings personally, but once they made their deal with the devil and signed Brett Favre, all bets were off. I guess I’d rather have him hang around another weekend instead of the Cowboys. Let’s get rid of these jokers already. Memo to Brad Childress: stop having Favre throw 35 times a game. You have Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. For crying out loud, please use them.
Pick: Vikings 28, Cowboys 24

New York Jets (10-7) vs. San Diego Chargers (13-3)(-7)
4:30 p.m. Qualcomm Stadium
Anyone within earshot within ESPN knows that the winner of this game will go on to win the Super Bowl. The Jets are destiny’s darlings, while the Chargers are red hot…going into the playoffs with momentum and all that garbage. I’ll give ESPN the benefit of the doubt on the Chargers. They have won eleven in a row, and not all of those games were against the lousy AFC West. Futhermore, they routinely give the Colts fits. So if they get past this round, their matchup with Indy should be very intriguing.

As for the Jets? Like I said last week, I’m impressed with what they did at the end of the season, despite playing teams that didn’t seem to care. They had to win their last few games, and they went out and did what the Broncos, Steelers and Texans could not do. But let’s be honest. Their last six games of the regular season came against teams that were good but had nothing to play for, or weren’t good at all. Their last meaningful regular season game was against New England back on November 22nd. The Jets lost by 17. The outcome of their game last week against Cincinnati was so obvious that even I managed to get it right. Two things have been clear since early December: the Bengals were going to win their division and the Bengals were going to be one-and-done in the playoffs. So this will be the best team the Jets have played in almost two months.

The Jets defense is good, and they’ll slow down the Chargers somewhat. But the best threat for San Diego, at least in my mind, continues to be Antonio Gates. The Jets really have no one who can stop him. Can Darrelle Revis shut down Vincent Jackson? Yes. Can the Jets slow down the Tomlinson-Sproles combination? Yes. I just doubt they can limit Gates. The Jets are also going to need Mark Sanchez to complete passes of more than ten yards to win this game. He hasn’t proven over the last couple of months that he can do that. I don’t think the New York defense will slow San Diego down enough, and the Jets offense certainly can’t afford to get into a shootout.
Pick: Chargers 27, Jets 16