NFL Playoffs: Repeat Offenders

Ended the season on a depressing 8-7 note and an even more depressing 7-8 against the spread. Here are the regular season records:

Overall: 162-78 (67.5%)
Vs. Spread: 127-108-5

How weird was this season? Well, it was my best season overall predicting games...but it was my fourth worst against the spread. Just bizzare. At least I'm trending up now, after trending down the last several seasons.

Overall
2005 - 161-79
2006 - 158-82
2007 - 156-84
2008 - 148-91-1
2009 - 162-78
(785-414-1 overall...or 65.4%)

Vs. Spread
2005 - 140-93-7
2006 - 137-94-9
2007 - 130-102-8
2008 - 119-114-7
2009 - 127-108-5
(653-511-36)

So it's playoff time, where I've done remarkably well in each season except 2007. 11 games to go, here are the first four. As always, please do not use these picks for actual gambling purposes.

SATURDAY
New York Jets (9-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)(-2.5)
4:30 p.m. Paul Brown Stadium
Here we go again. As soon as either of the New York teams does something decent, the sports media gets all crazy. I’ve heard everything from “the Jets are going to dominate Cincinnati again” to “the Jets are a darkhorse to win the Super Bowl” and just about anything in between. Enough. If you actually think that the Bengals team that laid down Sunday Night is the same Bengals team that will show up Saturday afternoon, then you don’t know football. Everyone is reading WAY too much into last Sunday’s game just like everyone is reading way too much into Green Bay’s win over the Cardinals (more on that later).

This game is the toughest call of the week in my opinion. It's also one of three repeat matchups from the last week of the regular season. I do like the way the Jets have played this past month…even facing several opponents who haven’t tried to win. The only thing that worries me about the Jets is the uneven quarterback play of Mark Sanchez. However, the Jets have a running game. They have the NFL’s top defense. They have a pretty good coach. Those are three necessities to succeed in January. On the other side, the Bengals had a decent running game for the first 10 weeks, but it’s disappeared recently. Statistically, their defense is pretty good, but there have been many times when it rolled over. Also, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has both feet out the door on the way to Washington (no more Greg Blache-coached defenses!!!!!!). So that’s an added distraction. Plus, the Bengals are the Bengals. This is not a franchise that gets luck when it’s needed.

The Bengals definitely have the advantage at quarterback with Carson Palmer, but I believe Rex Ryan will find a way to negate that. Lately he’s been playing it safe with Sanchez, and that strategy has worked almost perfectly for the last four games. I’m not getting swept up in Jets fever. I doubt the Jets have any potential for a serious playoff run. They will be easy pickings for either the Chargers or Colts. But I have more questions about Cincinnati than I do about New York, and I don’t feel comfortable picking against the Jets’ defense at this point in the playoffs.
Pick: Jets 20, Bengals 13


Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)(-4)
8:00 p.m. Cowboys Stadium
Speaking of crazy, how about that Cowboys bandwagon. It’s filled up pretty quickly the last couple of weeks. Like the Jets, don’t believe the hype. The Cowboys time in the playoffs will be short lived. Whether they lose to the Eagles this week, or the Vikings the next, I guarantee that Dallas will not see the NFC Championship Game. End of story. Meanwhile, for the third straight year, the NFL playoff schedule has given us one of these despicable NFC East matchups. Obviously one of these teams has to win, but it also means that we are rid of one of these teams for good after Saturday night. It’s comforting to know that one of these teams will lose, and I really don’t care which one.
Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 17


SUNDAY
Baltimore Ravens (9-7) vs. New England Patriots (10-6)(-3.5)
1:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I look at this line and laugh. The Ravens, playing a must win game against a below average Raiders team, needed Willis McGahee to come out of retirement to bail them out. Somehow I don’t think the Patriots will be as forgiving. Yes, we all know by now how important Wes Welker is to New England. We all get it. But he’s not that important. He’s absence won’t make the difference in this ballgame.

The quarterback discrepancy is huge. On one side you have Tom Brady. Broken rib and all, he’s better than 90% of the other starters in the league. On the other side you have Joe Flacco. Last season, Flacco wasn’t asked to win ballgames, but to manage them. He did a fine job of that. However, Flacco has yet to take the next step this season. In fact, he’s taken a step backward. His performance over the last 9 games, not counting a freebee against the Bears, has been dreadful. He single-handedly gave a win to Indianapolis, a win to Green Bay and two wins to Cincinnati. He almost cost the Ravens last week’s game in Oakland. Not counting the game against Chicago, in which the Bears turned the ball over five times and gave Flacco several short fields to work with, Flacco has thrown five touchdowns and seven picks. And I can hear all those Ravens fans complaining “his receivers drop passes, including Derrick Mason dropping a sure touchdown two weeks ago.” While that’s true, and you have to take Flacco’s receivers into account, defenders have dropped more picks than his receivers have dropped touchdowns this season. So it more than balances out.

In fact, Flacco’s statistics this season are eerily similar to Jason Campbell’s. And Campbell did that with an injured offensive line and no running game after Week 9. No one in their right mind would take Campbell in a playoff game right now. Why would anyone seriously consider taking a Flacco-led team against a Brady-led team? Seems like a no-brainer.
Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 10


Green Bay Packers (11-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)(-1)
4:30 p.m. University of Phoenix Stadium
This appears, at least to me, to be the other no-brainer of the week. I like the Cardinals. I like them relatively big. This is the same Cardinals team that did the rope-a-dope last season during December, and then steam-rolled through the NFC. Knowing they had a weak division, the Cardinals have played it safe for the past month. They haven’t shown any tricks or gadget plays. Every time Kurt Warner starts getting hit, they pull him out of the game. It’s all very familiar. It’s basically a flashback to last season.

The Cardinals are the real darkhorse of the playoffs at this point. Their offense is a known commodity. Even with Warner finally showing some age and even with Anquan Boldin possibly on the shelf, the Cardinals offense is better than anyone other than New Orleans and possibly Indianapolis among playoff teams. The defense is better than it was last season. Ken Whisenhunt has a season of playoff experience, as do most of the players. Green Bay, on the other hand, has been way too unpredictable for my liking. They’ll come out and shutdown Dallas and Baltimore, only to get blown out by Minnesota (twice) and embarrass themselves at Tampa. The offense should put up points, but the defense isn’t reliable. Certainly not reliable enough to stop the Cardinals (again, last week not withstanding…Arizona played their starters all of 15 minutes). Had this game been in Green Bay, I’d consider the upset. But the Packers won’t have their distinct homefield advantage in these playoffs. If the Arizona defense plays as consistently as it did last January, there should be no problems for the Cardinals this weekend.
Pick: Cardinals 31, Packers 20