Eagles at Redskins: McHernia

Some talk about the Eagles and Redskins in just a minute. But first let me finish out the rest of week nine by talking about the Monday Nighter.

MONDAY
Indianapolis Colts (7-0)(-4) vs. New England Patriots (4-3)
9:00 p.m. Gillette Stadium
I could sit here and waste everyone’s time and talk about the previous games between Peyton Manning and the Patriots. We could debate the Manning vs. Brady argument until snow starts falling in Foxboro. I could talk about how the Patriots don’t lose big games, and how they play better when everyone assumes that they are done. But isn’t everyone tired of hearing about this crap over and over again.

Here are the facts. The 2005 version of the Colts are the best team in the NFL. Yes, they haven’t played many tough games yet. Yes, Manning is having a “down year” compared to the rest of his brilliant career. But no, the Colts do not need to win this game to prove they are for real this season. They are going to cruise into the playoffs, most likely with the number one seed and home field advantage. The Patriots are going to be lucky to make the playoffs, and if they do, they will certainly not have a first round bye and will be forced to play at least two road games to make the Super Bowl. Even if New England wins this game, the Colts will still finish at least two games better than the Pats. So this game should have little meaning in playoff positioning.

More facts for you. The Patriots continue to resemble the cast of ER more than they resemble a professional football team. The injuries have really mounted. There is also some rather obvious strife between running back Corey Dillon and the rest of the offense. Just watch a Patriots game and you can see Dillon pouting constantly on the sidelines. Every time he scores a touchdown, he celebrates the score by taunting his team as much as the opponent. If the Patriots really have that “us against the world” mentality, then Dillon us the “me against the team” mentality.

The problems for the Pats don’t restrict themselves to the offensive side. New England comes into Monday with the 26th ranked defense in the league. With Teddy Bruschi or without him, this defense can't get itself off the field. But at least they are balanced defensively…they are 24th against both the run and the pass.

Enter Peyton Manning and the Colts. With the 8th ranked offense and the 4th best defense, the Colts are the most balanced team in the league. Tony Dungy finally has that D playing like his old Tampa defense a few years ago. And that offense is still very scary. Hold back to stop Peyton, and Edgerrin James will eat up yards. If you load the box, then you are taking your chances with the Manning-Harrison-Wayne combo. Oh boy, where do I sign up to be the opposing defensive coordinator?

The one weakness (if you want to call it that) for the Colts is defensive run stopping. They do give up over 100 yards a game. That means the Patriots will have to rely on Dillon to win. That doesn’t sound too promising. And hopefully after tonight, we don’t have to hear anymore of this Patriots having the edge over the Colts junk anymore. New season, new outcomes.
The Colts do not need this game to prove themselves as true contenders or to insure themselves of home field advantage. But they win anyway.
Pick: Colts

SUNDAY
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) vs. Washington Redskins (4-3)
8:30 p.m. FedEx Field
Where do I start? This game is the toughest to predict this week, and maybe the toughest to predict the entire season. The Redskins obviously didn’t show their best game against the Giants. I don’t think they showed their true face this past Sunday. But did the Eagles? The Eagles played Sunday’s game like they have played the entire season. They fell behind early in the game. Then Philly recovered and stormed back. But then, instead of some miraculous comeback win, they lost momentum and the Broncos ended up winning by 28. The Eagles have been too reliant on the second half comeback. Finally, McNabb and company were burned by the fourth quarter.

But it is impossible to say which Eagles team will show up this week. Philly is the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team. Most erratic teams show up one week and not the next. But the Eagles are a different team from series to series, play to play. On one drive, the Eagles can march down the field on 10 short passes and a couple of runs and put it in the endzone. When they’re on, they look really good. But the next drive, McNabb can make three horrible throws, and Terrell Owens could have another on-field blowup. That’s how inconsistent the Eagles are. Just because one version of the Eagles show up in the first half, doesn’t mean that a completely different version of the Eagles won’t show up in the second.

The Redskins are a bit more predictable. They are either going to show up, or they aren’t. Twice this season, they have done the latter. Fortunately against Dallas, the Cowboys stopped playing with four minutes to go in the fourth quarter. The Giants played a complete game and the evil version of the Skins never stood a chance. Every other week, the Redskins have looked pretty good. Even in losses to Denver and KC, they moved the ball, played pretty good defense, and were just a couple of mistakes away from winning.

So which teams will make an appearance at FedEx field on Sunday? To be honest, I have no clue. I don't think anyone does. It doesn’t help that the both Donovan McNabb and T.O. have numerous injuries. Both of them, or neither of them, could suite up. Owens has a bad ankle, the same ankle he had problems with late last season (and from what I'm hearing, there is a possibility that Owens could even be suspended for some of the things he has said this week about the team). And here is the updated injury list for Mr. McNabb: bruised ribs, bruised sternum, sports hernia, bad back, three hangnails, a blister on his neck, and a not enough Campbell’s Soup in his diet.

As for the Redskins, everyone on the defensive line is hurt. Renaldo Wynn will play. Everyone else (Salave’a, Daniels, Griffin, Killings, etc…) is a game time decision. If Owens doesn’t play, that may benefit the Eagles. They would be forced to run the ball more against an injured Redskins interior. If Owens plays, then they Eagles will continue to air the ball out – they throw 69% of the time, which is a league high by a wide margin – and they play right into the strength of the Redskins defense. Owens shouldn’t be a problem (the Redskins pretty much shut him down twice last year), but Brian Westbrook will be an issue as a running back and as a receiver. Look for him to have a big game.

The Redskins MUST RUN THE BALL. Clinton Portis getting four carries is not going to give the team a chance to win. Mark Brunell, despite having a major resurrection this season, cannot win the game “McNabb style”. He needs a balanced offense. Under Joe Gibbs Part II and Brunell/Ramsey, the Redskins are 9-0 when they run more than they pass. When the majority of plays are in the air, the Skins are 1-13. So tell Jerome from Southeast, or Dr. I Don’t Know, or whatever personality Portis is sporting this week, to get ready for a heavy running load Sunday night. Otherwise, the Redskins will be checking in at 4-4 and at the bottom of the NFC East next Sunday.